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GFD WATER
GFD ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
„CLIMATE CHANGE –
IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGY AND
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT “
Scientific Study on the Impacts of the Decreasing Water Level of Lake
Neusiedl, Austria
International Congress “Global Climate Change and Environmental Effects”October 18-20, Konya, Turkey
Monika SchönerkleeDeputy Head of Water DepartmentAustrian Research Centers GmbH – ARC (www.arcs.ac.at) 2444 Seibersdorf, AustriaMonika.schoenerklee@arcs.ac.at
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CONTENT OF PRESENTATION Background and objectives Climate change forecasts und lake water level scenarios for the Lake Neusiedl
Occurrence probabilities Water surface areas and water depths
Types of use and limitations for the lake water level scenarios Tourism Retail trade Fishery Etc.
Effects on agriculture Economic analysis (NUTS 3 Region Nordburgenland) of the selected scenarios
Regional effects on gross value added Regional effects on employment situation
Summary, conclusion and perspectives
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Background
Lake Neusiedl, is situated in the border region between Austria and Hungary, between the foothills of the Eastern Alps and the Pannonian plain
Endorheic lake with a total area of about 320 km² of which 180 km² are covered by reed, and with an average depth of 1.2 m
This area is counted among the driest areas of Austria with an annual precipitation of 500-700 mm
Lake area has been declared as UNESCO World Cultural Heritage Area
Tourism (especially sailing) is an important regional economic factor
Climate change forecasts for the region expect an increase of the annual average temperatures with a probable decrease of yearly precipitation
Lake Neusiedl
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Lake hydrology and study objectives
Water balance of the Lake Neusiedl is dominated by precipitation (500-700 mm/a) and evapotranspiration (no relevant inflow and outflow)
Fluctuations in seasonal distribution of precipitation Significant deficits in precipitation and the characteristic
high evapotranspiration in the last years caused low lake water levels
Climate change forecasts expect more frequent dry periods which could lead to a contiuous drying of the lake
Observed low lake levels showed first negative effects on tourism (especially sailing) which is an important regional economic factor.
Objectives of the study: Development of realistic scenarios Analyse the (negative) impacts of low lake water levels on
tourism and different economic sectors of the Lake Neusiedl region
Water Level Hydrograph of Lake Neusiedl (since 1965)
115,00
115,10
115,20
115,30
115,40
115,50
115,60
115,70
115,80
115,90
116,00
116,10
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
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1987
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1989
1990
1991
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1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Lak
e w
ater
leve
l [m
a.s
.l.]
Minimum levelSeptember 2003:115,05 m a.s.l.
Maximum levelMay 1996:115,96 m a.s.l.
Mean level115,47 m a.s.l.
Average water level: ~ 115,50 m a.s.l.Maximum water level: ~ 116,00 m a.s.l.Minimum water level: 115,05 m a.s.l.
0
100
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Jän
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r.0
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ch
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[m
m]
0
20
40
60
80
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120
140
160
180
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Mo
nats
nie
ders
ch
lag
[m
m]
2003:2003:311 mm311 mm
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Climate change forecasts for the Lake Neusiedl region
Source: BOKU Study „Auswirkungen einer Klimaänderung auf den Wasserhaushalt des Neusiedler Sees“ (2005)
Change of annual precipitation:
Forecasts show higher uncertainties
Bandwidth of -20 % to +20 % (-5 % to 0 % most probable)
Increase of annual average temperature:
2020 (period 2010-2030): +1,9°C
2040 (period 2030-2050): +2,5°C
Warming is most significant during winter and summer
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Selection of 4 relevant lake water levels scenarios
Further use-specific analysis and assessment for the two (three) low lake water level scenarios for which significant impacts on various tourism and economic sectors can be expected
115.50 m a.s.l. Corresponds to the average lake water level of 115.47 m a.s.l. of the time period 1965-2005
115.20 m a.s.l. Feasible starting level of artificially supplying water to the lake
115.00 m a.s.l. Level which is slightly below the minimum lake water level of the dry year 2003 (115.06 m a.s.l.)
114.70 m a.s.l. Extreme event under the current climate conditions (period 1991-2004). Recurring event in case of climate change conditions (climate change scenarios 2020 and 2040)
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Climate scenarios – Occurence probabilities and average durations below the respective levels
SzenarioClimate change (compared to period
1961-90)
Lake water level
115.20 m a.s.l.
Lake water level
115.00 m a.s.l.
Lake water level
114.70 m a.s.l.
Occurence probability
Average duration below
level
Occurence probability
Average duration below
level
Occurence probability
Average duration below
level
Current situation(1991-2004)
T: + 0.7°C
Prec: ± 0 % 12.2 years 138 days 71.4 years 78 days > 500 years -
Climate scenario 2020(Period 2010-2030)
T: + 1.9°C
Prec.: - 5% 2.6 years 191 days 6.9 years 213 days 22.7 years 191 days
Climate scenario 2040(Period 2030-2050)
T: + 2,5°C
Prec.: - 5% 1.8 years 223 days 3.5 years 190 days 12.5 years 196 days
Source: BOKU Studie „Auswirkungen einer Klimaänderung auf den Wasserhaushalt des Neusiedler Sees“ (2005)
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GIS Analysis: Water surface areas for the selected lake water levels
115.50 m a.s.l. 115.20 m a.s.l.
115.00 m a.s.l. 114.70 m a.s.l.
Use of digital terrain model for the lake and the surrounding area:
115.50 m a.s.l.: nearly the entire reed belt is impounded
115.20 m a.s.l : only about 50% of the reed belt are impounded
114.70 m a.s.l :nearly the entire reed belt area dries up
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Distribution of water depths for the selected lake water levels
Lake water levels 115.00 m a.s.l. and 114.70 m a.s.l.:
Significant increase of extremely shallow lake areas (< 1.2 m) mainly for the north and north-western part of the lake
In these areas higher water depths are only reached in more than 100 meters distance from the shore.
(own GIS analysis based on Bacsatyai et al., 1997)
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Distribution of water depths for the selected lake water levels (Detail view of the northern lake shore Neusiedl)
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Distribution of water depths for the selected lake water levels (Detail view of the eastern lake shore Podersdorf)
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Sector-wise analysis of limitations, estimation of turnover decrease
Determination of turnover decrease is based on the following approach: Analysis of use limitations for different lake water levels (mapping of water depth distribution and lake water
surface) Interviews and expert opinions Analysis of two existing tourist surveys (questionnaires) (T-MONA, 2005) Analysis of tourism statistics (over-night stays, yearly distribution, communities etc.) (WKO, 2006, Burgenländische
Statistiken: Tourismus, 2005) Consideration of lake water level hydrograph and occurrence probability of the selected scenarios Determination of bandwidths of turnover decrease which are appropriate to consider a number of uncertainty
factors Calculation of agricultural decrease is based on climate forecasts only (not on the lake water levels)
The selected band-widths include: Validity of climate change forecasts and natural climate variability Definite time and duration of low lake water levels, its occurrence probabilities and consequence effects in the
following years Different tourism characteristics of the lake municipalities and the general tourist behaviour.
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Summer tourism (Bathing)Extremely shallow water depths in the shore areas in general, respectively in the bathing areas
Swimming is only possible with greater distance from the lake shore (especially for the lake water levels 115.0 m a.s.l. and 114.7m a.s.l.
Bathing areas on the northern lake shore (Neusiedl, Weiden, Breitenbrunn) are most signifcantly affected
Water sports (Sailing, surfing etc.)A minimum water depth of 1.2-1.3 m is required for sailing conditions – with regard to the currently used boats on the lake (considering local wind, waves and mud transport conditions)
Water depths < 1m – sailing is limited to only a few boat categories
Liners/ferry boatsCan be operated without problems for lake water levels above 115.2 m a.s.l. At lake lavels of about 115.0 m a.s.l. only limited use For lake levels below 114.7 m a.s.l. not possible any more (using the current type of ships)
Lake Neusiedl area – Types of use and limitations due to low lake levels
The number of guests visiting this region will be a result of its attractiveness for different touristic uses:
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Bycicle tourism, cultural tourism and retail trade Due to the low lake water levels and the decline of over-night stays as
well as day visitors a decrase of retail trade activites is to be expected.
Fishery Extremely low water levels will cause a drying up of the reed belt as
important living space for young fish – negative influence on fishery Strong dependence on funding measures (Besatzmaßnahmen) Economic interrelation with local gastronomy
Reed culture Intermittent lowering of the water level will cause only minor economic
effects on this sector
Lake Neusiedl area – Types of use and limitations due to low lake levels
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Tourism – Guest surveys and guest motivation
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Rundreise
Privat&Berufl.
Staedte
Wanderung
Verwandte
Kur
Radfahren
Kultur
Event
Aktiv
Bade
Wellness
Erholung
Url
au
bsart
in %
Region Neusiedlersee gesamt - Nächtigungen pro Monat 2000 - 2005
-
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
Jän Feb Mär Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez
Nä
ch
tig
un
ge
n p
ro M
on
at
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percentage of overnight stays during summer > 88 % (clear peak of overnight stays in August)
Motivation of guests focusses on relaxing, bathing and water sports (according to guest surveys by the local tourism agency)
Occurence of low lake water levels mostly during late summer (August/September)
Decrease of overnight stays and day-visitors is to be expected for the low lake water levels during summer period
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Correlations between climate and agricultural yield for the lake Neusiedl area
Question: Which influence of climate variability on the agricultural yield of the most important crops could be identified for the last 9 years?
Approach: Estimation of the decrease of agricultural production was based on detailed climatic and agro-statistical analysis of the period 1997-2005 laying a specific focus on the dry year 2003 (corresponds with the climate scenario of the lake water level 115.0 m a.s.l.)
Results: Functions for estimating the yield decrease in relation to temperature and precipitation changes
Application: Economic analysis of climate scenarios which also influence the lake water level
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Regression model for the dependence of wheat yield on precipitation and temperature in the north of Burgenland
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
14,0
14,515,0
15,516,0
16,517,0
17,5
150200
250300
Yie
ld (
dt/h
a)
Yie
ld (
dt/h
a)
Tem
p.m
ean
April
- Ju
ne
Precipitation sum Feb. - June
Winter wheat 1997-2005Districts Eisenstadt U. + Neusiedl
per °C increase: - 2.1 ± 7.7 dt/haper 100 mm more precipitation: + 6.3 ± 7.7 dt/ha
r² = 0.75
Yield functions of eight relevant agricultural crops (including confidence intervals)
Estimation of decrease of agricultural production (potential losses only refer to annual crops)
Agricultural production is directly affected by the growth-relevant climatic conditions (scenarios) which determine the lake water level
High percentage of sandy soils which are subject to drying up and with high irrigation demand
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Estimation of the economic value of potential yield decrease
Districts ND+EU Production value 2005 in Mio. € *
Decrease of production value Scenario 2003 – 115.0 m a.s.l. (Mio. €)
Decrease of production value Scenario 114,7 m (Mio. €)
Wheat 6,33 1,67 2,85 Barley 1,71 0,39 0,67 Maize 7,07 1,80 3,06 Other crops 1,07 0,26 0,45 Peas 0,59 0,14 0,23 Soja beans 0,17 0,03 0,06 Potatoes 1,16 0,46 0,78 Sugar beat 8,78 0,36 0,61 Rape 0,77 0,37 0,62 Sun flower 1,17 0,25 0,43
Total 28,82 5,73 9,75 From 2 5 Estimation of
uncertainty To 12 20
* Source: http://www.agrarstatistik.at/
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Estimation of decrease in turnover (bandwidths) for the selected water level scenarios for the NUTS3 Region Nordburgenland
Decrease in turnover per year for selected water level scenarios
115.20 m a.s.l. 115.00 m a.s.l 114.70 m a.s.l.
Affected sectors Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum
Overnight stays of tourists
none
-10% 0% -35% -10 %
Day visitors -15% -5% -50% -30%
Water sportsSailing: -20%Surfing: - 10%
Kite surfing: 0%
Sailing: -90%Surfing: - 65%
Kite surfing: -50%
Retail sales -1% 0% -2% -1%
Agriculture (without viniculture) -40% -5% -60% -25%
Reed culture none none
Fishery none -25%
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Economic analysis of the various affected sector
Regional economic analysis of potential effects by using the method of multi-regional input-output analysis:
Captures the linkages of the supply and reference structures of the different economic
sectors Determines direct (within the sector), indirect (on sectors from which services have
been supplied) and induced (due to income changes) effects on- Value added
- Employment
Calculations were carried out for the NUTS 3 Region Nordburgenland (Districts: Neusiedl, Rust, Eisenstadt, Eisenstadt-Umgebung, Mattersburg)
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Gross value added Burgenland 2003
Gross value added Nordburgenland 2003
Agriculture 146 Mio 97 Mio
Retail trade 141 Mio 85 Mio
Summer tourism (overnight stays) 137 Mio 83 Mio
Summer tourism (day visitors) 18 Mio 11 Mio
Sailing, surfing, kite surfing 1,5 Mio 1,5 Mio
Lake baths 490.000 490.000
Fishery 410.000 274.000
Liners/ferries 310.000 310.000
Radverleih 6
Economic analysis – Status Quo
Source: Statistik Austria, analysis and calculations by ExAqua
Gross value added (EURO)
Total gross value added of affected sectors ~ 278 Mio EURO
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Economic Analysis – Assessment of the Lake Water Level Scenarios (Value added)
Decrease of gross value added per year for the NUTS 3 Region Nordburgenland:
Total decrease of value added for the region NUTS 3 NordburgenlandScenario 115.00 m a.s.l. (average) and 114.70 m a.s.l. (average)
0 5 10 15 20 25
Agriculture
Summer tourism (overnight stays)
Summer tourism (day-visitors)
Retail sales
Sailing, surfing, kite surfing
Bathing
Lake liners
Bycicle rentals
Value added decrase in Mio Euro
Scenario 115.0 (average)
Scenario 114.7 (average)
Most affected sectors: Tourism, hotel and restaurant business Agriculture Retail trade
Lake level
115.0 m a.s.l.
Lake level 114.7 m a.s.l.
Minimum 2 Mio. € 20 Mio. €
Maximum 24 Mio. € 62 Mio. €
Average 13 Mio. € 41 Mio. €
Decrease of 1.46 % of total gross value added within the region Nordburgenland, 15% of concerned sectors
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Economic Analysis – Assessment of the Lake Water Level Scenarios (Employment)
Decrease of employment (full-time equivalents) per year for the NUTS 3 Region Nordburgenland:
Lake level
115.0 m a.s.l.
Lake level
114.7 m a.s.l.
Minimum 273 861
Maximum 1.829 3.521
Average 1.016 2.191
Most affected sectors: Agriculture Tourism, hotel and restaurant business Retail trade
Total decrease of employment for the region NUTS 3 NordburgenlandScenario 115.00 m a.s.l. (average) and 114.70 m a.s.l. (average)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Agriculture
Summer tourism (overnight stays)
Summer tourism (day-visitors)
Retail sales
Sailing, surfing, kite surfing
Bathing
Lake liners
Fishery
Employment decrase in full-time equivalents
Scenario 115.0 (average.Scenario 114.7 (average)
Employment decrease of 3.8 % within the region Nordburgenland
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Economic analysis – Results
→ Gross value added and employment situation are directly related to the lake water level scenarios
→ Water level of 114.7 m a.s.l. – compared to a water level of 115.0 m a.s.l. – would create an even
- 3 times higher decrease of value added and a- 2.5 times higher employment decrease
The strongest affected sectors are: Tourism, hotel and restaurant business
More distinctive decrease for overnight stays than for day-visitors Negative image of a dry year with low lake level can negatively affect the following years
Agriculture: Climate change shows significant effects on agriculture, however, not related to the lake water
levels Retail trade
Calculated gross value added and employment decreases correspond only to the year of low lake water level occurrence, potential consequences for the subsequent years are not considered.
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Summary of Economic Analysis – Gross value added
ScenarioLake water level
115.00 m a.s.l.Lake water level
114.70 m a.s.l.
Probability of occurrence
Calculated
Decrease of gross value addedin Mio EURO per year
Probability of occurrence
Calculated
Decrease of gross value added in Mio EURO per year
Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum
Current situation(1991-2004) 71.4 years
2.2 (0.98)*
13.0 (7.5)*
23.8 (13.9)*
> 500 years
20.0 (17.6)*
41.2 (32.5)*
62.3 (47.5)*
Climate scenario 2020(2010-2030)
6.9 years 22.7 years
Climate scenario 2040(2030-2050)
3.5 years 12.5 years
* Values not considering agriculture
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Summary of Economic Analysis – Employment situation
ScenarioLake water level
115.00 m a.s.l.Lake water level
114.70 m a.s.l.
Probability of occurrence
Calculated
Decrease of employmentin Mio EURO per year
Probability of occurrence
Calculated
Decrease of employment in Mio EURO per year
Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum
Current situation(1991-2004) 71.4 years
85 (23)*
473 (192)*
861 (361)*
> 500 years
568 (144)*
1271 (835)*
1973 (1225)*
Climate scenario 2020(2010-2030)
6.9 years 22.7 years
Climate scenario 2040(2030-2050)
3.5 years 12.5 years
* Values not considering agriculture
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Summary and Conclusions
Low lake water levels will occur more frequently (due to climate change forecasts)
Results of economic analysis show significant decrease of gross value added and employment situation for the region Nordburgenland, resp. Lake Neusiedl region for the lake water level scenarios 115.0 m a.s.l. and 114.7 m a.s.l.
Economic forecasts are strongly dependent on the following factors of uncertainty: Climate change forecasts and climate variability
Time and duration of low lake water level conditions
Occurence probabilities – Negative effects on the following years
General tourism behaviour
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Ways forward – Options for the FutureWhich measures are feasible and appropriate in order to counteract to the negative
economic forecasts? Tourism strategies
Reducing the dependence of tourism on the lake water level by intensifying further tourism offers like wellness, culture, wine, cycling etc.
Intensifying quality tourism (investments in tourism infrastructure and employees). Extending the tourist high season to spring and early summer respectively autumn where higher lake
water levels occur, targeting year-round tourism. Addressing new target groups (in addition to bathing and water sport tourists) and international tourists.
Water management strategies Artificial stabilization of the lake water balance: Currently two options are discussed, which either intend
to use ground water (bank filtration from the Danube river), or water from the river Raab on the Hungarian side.
Optimisation of irrigation management and use of draught resistant cultures in agriculture. Development of a transboundary water management plan for the Lake Neusiedl region (e.g. INTERREG)
………….
Assessment and coordination of different options with regard to environment, economomy and efficiency (Multicriteria – Assessment)
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The Austrian Research Centers
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
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