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Global Trends in Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle
and IAEA Activities
Akira OMOTODirector, Division of Nuclear Power
a.omoto@iaea.org
Aomori 11April20072
Global trends in nuclear power and fuel cycle
IAEA’s role and activities Summary
Aomori 11April20073
1. Current worldwide nuclear generating capacity�Commercial NPPs in Operation 435 (367.8 GWe)�Share of electricity 16%
2. Slowdown of capacity addition since late 80’s�Electricity market deregulation�Slow growth of electricity demand in advanced countries�Public Perception�Economic reforms in Russia and Eastern Europe
3. Current expansion mainly in Asia
Global Trends in Nuclear Power & Fuel Cycle- Installed generating capacity -
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
GW(e)
NA WE Russia & EE Japan & ROK Developing
North America
Western Europe
FSU / EEJapan / ROK
Developing countries
Aomori 11April20074
4. Nuclear electricity increase by 40% (1990-2005)
Capacity factor improvement by:
�Best practice prevailing�Consolidation to those who perform best�Risk-informed regulation
Global Trends in Nuclear Power & Fuel Cycle - Operation -
Contributions to nuclear production growth
Capacity36%
Uprating7%
Availability57%
Aomori 11April20075
Operational reactors by age (January 2007)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
50%75%
Age distribution (327/435 over or equal to 20 years)
5. Long-term operation and power uprating- Long term operation through continuous monitoring, replacement and regulatory review
Global Trends in Nuclear Power & Fuel Cycle-Aging and long-term operation -
Aomori 11April20076
Source : EDF, ENC 2002
CurrentFleet
1975 2000 2025 2050 2075
Gen IV
EPR
U (Udep, URT)
Pu (MOX recycling)M.A. + F.P. ---> glasses F.P. ---> glasses
M.A. ---> glasses or recycling
RecyclingGen IV
Disposal
CycleGen IV
Life timeextension
Reactors
Cycle
Transition scenario from current fleet of LWR to Gen-IV- Case of France : CEA proposal -
6. Design evolution and innovation
Global Trends in Nuclear Power & Fuel Cycle-- To the future -
Aomori 11April20077
7. New initiatives proposed �MNA (M. ElBaradei)�Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) (USA) �President Putin’s initiative to develop a Global Nuclear Power Infrastructure (GNPI) (Russia)
8. Rising expectations for the role of nuclear power
Global Trends in Nuclear Power & Fuel Cycle- To the future -
Aomori 11April20078
Increasing Nr. of countries considering introduction of nuclear power
Population of the countries Considering NP=1 Billion
With NP China and India Considering NP
Aomori 11April20079
IAEA’s high projections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
GW(e)
Projection date20012002200320042005
Aomori 11April200710
Global trends in nuclear power and fuel cycle
IAEA’s role and activitiesSummary
Aomori 11April200711
IAEA’s role
1) To ensure protection: that, wherever nuclear energy is used to produce energy , it is used:
• Safely, Securely, and• With minimal proliferation risk.
2) To ensure continued technological innovation to improve its attributes in safety, security, economics, proliferation-resistance, environment and waste
3) To ensure that the needs of developing countries are taken into account:
Aomori 11April200712
Mission1) Support to existing Nuclear Power for excellence & to new
countries for infrastructure development2) Catalyse innovation for sustainable development 3) Build national capability
Activities by the Department of Nuclear Energy
Activities-Develop methodology- Information sharing- Coordinated research- Technology transfer - Review services
Aomori 11April200713
1. Knowledge Management� Issues Member States face:
�Sustaining existing knowledge for the continued safe operation of existing nuclear installations�Human resources development in new countries�Preservation of knowledge before it degrades or is lost
� IAEA activities in:�Methodology and guidance�Educational networks�Knowledge preservation
Aomori 11April200714
After 2 decades of very low U price, price tripled in the last 2years; make up by inventory drawdown is very uncertain
• Support to new Uranium exploration activities• Support training for Uranium exploration & other activities• Sharing information through meetings & databases “Red book” with OECD/NEA
Inventory drawdown since 1990
2. Uranium resources
Aomori 11April200715
Uranium resources (“red book”)� “Uranium 2005” by OECD/NEA and IAEATotal identified 4.7 Million Ton (<USD130/Kg U)Total undiscovered (Prognosticated & speculative)
10 Million Ton (<USD130/Kg U)� Current consumption = 68,000 Ton/year for 360GWe• Resource/Consumption with margin • Closed fuel cycle using FR
further extends this marginR/P (total conventional) R/P (conventional & phosphate)
LWR 270 years 675 yearsFast Reactor 8000 -16000years 20,000~40,000 years
Source: Uranium 2005NTR2007
Aomori 11April200716
3. Support for building infrastructure
� Infrastructure is a key to successful introduction/expansionlegal and regulatory framework, human resources, industrial background etc
� Guidance for the introduction of nuclear power and for development of infrastructure • Numerous guidance documents• Filling in gaps & updating guidelines • Milestones document & its implementation (self-assessment and review by international experts)
• Encouraging regional approach for efficiency� Institutional issues (Assurance of supply, Financing, Licensing)
Aomori 11April200717
� Many attributes of nuclear energy have potential to contribute to improve indicators of sustainable development
* “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs “, Brundtland, Our Common Future, 1987
� Potential to improve EISD of a nation by having NE in the energy portfolio29 EISD indicators : Society (4), Economy (15), Environment (10)� Usable to
• Analyze past trends and current situation• Measure distance to target• Formulate strategy
4. Energy Indicator for Sustainable Development (EISD)
Aomori 11April200718
- DG statement at 50th GC, 2006
� “Technological and institutional innovation is a key factor in ensuring the long-term sustainability of nuclear power”
5. Stimulating innovation
Aomori 11April200719
1. Methodology improvementMethodologies/Indicators - assessment of differentsystems and scenarios
- screening of reactor and fuel cycle system
2. Institutional/Infrastructure3. Collaborative Project
Three directions of current INPRO activities
Aomori 11April200720
Summary
Aomori 11April200721
1. Rising expectations for the role of nuclear power after 20 years of stagnation
2. The mission of NE, as one of the Agency’s three pillars:- Support Member States’ safe, reliable operation in a technically sound manner & infrastructure building for introduction/expansion of Nuclear Power
- Catalyze innovation, and- Support Member States’ capacity building and knowledge management
Summary
Aomori 11April200722
IAEA Activity development
Aomori 11April200723
IAEA’s roleStatute article II: Objectives
• The Agency shall seek to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world. It shall ensure, so far as it is able, that assistance provided by it or at its request or under its supervision or control is not used in such a way as to further any military purpose.
Aomori 11April200724
� Agency’s support �Identification of uranium deposits�Training for exploration activities�Best practices in mining and milling�Environmental effects of mining and milling�Closing of mining and milling facilities�Environmental restoration of old mines
� Past experiences of MSs support�China, Pakistan, Argentina - Exploration and prospecting techniques�Egypt – Uranium resources development�Romania – Restructuring of the uranium mining industry
Uranium mining and milling
Aomori 11April200725
Accident fatalities per energy produced by fuel chain
SOC4SafetyHealth
Household energy use for each income group and corresponding fuel mix
SOC3Disparities
Share of household income spent on fuel and electricity
SOC2Affordability
Share of households (or population) without electricity or commercial energy, or heavily dependent on non-commercial energy
SOC1AccessibilityEquityEnergy IndicatorSub-themeTheme
EISD in EISD in ““SocietySociety”” dimensiondimension
Aomori 11April200726
Accident fatalities per energy produced by fuel chain
SOC4SafetyHealth
Household energy use for each income group and corresponding fuel mix
SOC3Disparities
Share of household income spent on fuel and electricity
SOC2Affordability
Share of households (or population) without electricity or commercial energy, or heavily dependent on non-commercial energy
SOC1AccessibilityEquityEnergy IndicatorSub-themeTheme
EISD in EISD in ““SocietySociety”” dimensiondimension
Aomori 11April200727
Stocks of critical fuels per corresponding fuel consumptionECO15StocksNet energy import dependencyECO14ImportsSecurityEnd use energy Prices by fuel and by sectorECO13PricesRenewable energy share in energy and electricityECO12Fuel Shares in energy and electricity ECO11Fuel MixTransport energy intensitiesECO10Household energy intensitiesECO9Service / Commercial energy intensitiesECO8Agricultural energy intensitiesECO7Industrial energy intensitiesECO6End-use
productivity
Resources to production ratioECO5Reserves to production ratioECO4ProductionEfficiency of energy conversion & distributionECO3Supply efficiency
Energy use per unit of GDPECO2Overall ProductivityEnergy use per capitaECO1Overall UseUse and
production patterns
Energy IndicatorSub-themeTheme
EISD in EISD in ““EconomyEconomy”” dimensiondimension
Aomori 11April200728
The impact of the emission tradingThe impact of the emission trading onon thethe electricityelectricitygenerationgeneration costcost (Prof. (Prof. VoVoßß , Univ. of Stuttgart), Univ. of Stuttgart)
Aomori 11April200729
Frequency-Consequence Curves for Severe Accidents in Various Energy Chains, OECD countries, 1969-2000
1.E-7
1.E-6
1.E-5
1.E-4
1.E-3
1.E-2
1.E-1
1.E+0
1 10 100 1000 10000Fatalities, X
Freq
uenc
y of e
vents
caus
ing X
ormo
re fat
alitie
s per
GWey
r
Nuclear (PSA,latent fatalities)
Hydro
Coal
OilNatural Gas
LPG
[Source] Burgherr & Hirschberg, 2004
Aomori 11April200730
CO2 emission rates from electricity generationCO2 emission rates from electricity generation
CCS: Carbon Capture & StorageCCS: Carbon Capture & Storage
[SOURCE] EC, External Costs – Research Results on Socio-Environmental Damages due to Electricity and Transport, EC Study EUR 20198, Brussels, 2003
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