Greater Nottingham Aligned Core Strategies HOUSING PROVISION 7 th April 2011

Greater NottinghamAligned Core Strategies

HOUSING PROVISION

7th April 2011

• What are the Aligned Core Strategies?

• Why are we revisiting housing provision?

• Household projections

• Next steps

Reminder – Greater Nottingham

New Housing Provision figures – why?

New Housing Provision figures – why?

• Option for Consultation 2010

• Forthcoming abolition of Regional Strategies

• Localism/new approach to planning

• Government’s New Household Projections

Department ofCommunities & Local Government “…decisions on housing

supply will rest with local

authorities without the framework of regional numbers and plans.”

“Regional Strategies built nothing but resentment – we want to build houses.”

Department ofCommunities & Local Government

“Local authorities should continue to collect and use reliable information to justify their housing supply policies and defend them during the LDF examination process. They should do this in line with current policy in PPS3.”

Household Projections

• ACS used 2004 based• 2008 based issued November 2010• Long standing issues

– Projections, NOT forecasts– Migration– Short period projecting forward– No market information

5 Scenarios

1. Natural change in the existing population

2. In and out migration in balance

3. Long term (8 year) migration trend

4. No increase in jobs

5. Continuing past house building rates

Ground Rules

• Not prejudging future decisions about either the scale of housing provision or its distribution.

• Looking at Greater Nottingham, not considering distribution amongst Local Authorities – for later.

• Or locations!• Not choosing any one scenario – all help

to inform future decisions.

Other assumptions

• Unless explicitly mentioned, assumptions in the Government projections are unchanged – eg household size.

Ashfield position

• Only Hucknall part included in ACS.

• Nottingham “outer” HMA.

• Distribution around district a policy decision for later.

• Therefore assumed Hucknall provision continues at ACS levels.

Greater Nottingham Housing Provision 2009 - 2026

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Aligned Core Stratgies (RSS) CLG Projections

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Scenario 1 - Natural Change in the Existing Population

• How many new homes need to provide for the existing population?

• Assumes no one moves in and no one moves out.

Scenario 1 - Natural Change in the Existing Population

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

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80,000

Aligned CoreStrategies (RSS)

CLG Projections Natural Change

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(2

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26

)

Aligned Core Strategies (RSS)

CLG Projections

Natural Change

Scenario 2 – In and Out Migration in Balance

• Assumes same numbers move in and move out

• But allows for different age structure

• In-migrants younger, out migrants older (students – in at 18 out at 21 or 22)

• Used in past Structure Plans

Scenario 2 – In and Out Migration in Balance

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

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80,000

Aligned CoreStrategies (RSS)

CLG Projections Balanced Migration

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(2

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26

)

Aligned Core Strategies (RSS)

CLG Projections

Balanced Migration

Scenario 3 – Long Term (8 year) Migration Trend

• CLG Projections look back over a 5 year period

• Period of high in-migration

• What would happen if you look back over a longer period?

• 8 years, to iron out peaks and troughs

Scenario 3 – Long Term (8 year) Migration Trend

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10,000

20,000

30,000

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50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Aligned CoreStrategies (RSS)

CLG Projections Long Term Migration

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(2

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26

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Aligned Core Strategies (RSS)

CLG Projections

Long Term Migration

Scenario 4 – No increase in jobs

• How does level of jobs impact on future housing requirements

• Therefore how many homes need to hold the level of jobs at 2008 (base date) constant over the period.

• ie How many homes need for the same number of jobs?

Scenario 4 – No increase in jobs

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

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80,000

Aligned CoreStrategies (RSS)

CLG Projections No Increase in Jobs

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(2

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9 -

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26

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Aligned Core Strategies (RSS)

CLG Projections

No Increase in Jobs

Scenario 5 – Continuing 2001-9 house building rates

• Past completion rates.

• What we’ve delivered in the past continues for plan period.

• ie approximately 2,500 homes per annum.

Scenario 5 – Continuing 2001-9 house building rates

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10,000

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Aligned CoreStrategies (RSS)

CLG Projections Past House BuildingRates

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(2

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9 -

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26

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Aligned Core Strategies (RSS)

CLG Projections

Past House Building Rates

Greater Nottingham Housing Provision 2009 - 2026

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

AlignedCore

Strategies(RSS)

CLGProjections

NaturalChange

BalancedMigration

Long TermMigration

No Increasein Jobs

Past HouseBuilding

Rates

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Towards Housing Provision

• CLG Projections• Housing land availability (SHLAAs)• Housing market factors (SHMAs)• Localism

– Environmental capacity– Infrastructure (existing and proposed)– Views of community– Local ambitions – economy etc– New Homes Bonus

Joint Planning Advisory Board - Next Steps

• Consider implications• Weigh up other factors and evidence• Come to a Greater Nottingham view• Consider possible distributions• Work up a range of options for consultation• Get political agreement!!• Summer 2011• Publish revised ACS early 2012

QUESTIONS