Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ... · Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping...

Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial-

Dynamic Hydro-Economic Modeling Framework

Presented by Aaron Hrozencik

Dr. Dale Manning

Dr. Jordan Suter

Dr. Chris Goemans

Dr. Ryan Bailey

Motivation

Challenges associated with managing spatial and temporal dynamics in common pool resources

• Fisheries

• Ecosystem Biodiversity

• Wildlife

Research Question:What is the value of spatially differentiated

policies to reach common groundwater

conservation goals?

Contribution to literature

• Nested governance, spatially explicit policies

Dietz, Ostrom & Stern, 2003; Sanchirico & Wilen, 2005; Edwards, 2016

• Economic literature assessing gains to groundwater management

Gisser & Sanchez, 1980; Feinerman & Knapp, 1983; Brill & Burness, 1994; Rubio & Casino, 2001

• Economics of spatially explicit groundwater utilizing insights from hydrology

Saak and Peterson, 2007; Brozovic et al., 2010; Pfeiffer and Lin, 2012; Guilfoos et al., 2013, Foster et al., 2014

Groundwater Terminology

Saturated thickness –vertical distance of aquifer permeated by water

Hydraulic conductivity –potential velocity of lateral groundwater

Well capacity (yield) –max flow rate that a well can sustain over a period of time (gallons per minute)

Microeconomic Foundations

Stage 1: Planting Decision

max𝐴𝑖𝑗𝐸 𝑗=1

𝐽𝑝𝑗𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑓𝑗 𝑤𝑖𝑗; 𝑐𝑖𝑡 , 𝜃𝑖𝑡 , 𝜙𝑖 , 𝑗=1

𝐽𝐴𝑖𝑗 − 𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑟𝐴𝑗 − 𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑤𝑖𝑗𝑟𝑤

Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision

max𝑤𝑖𝑗 𝑗∈𝑅 𝑝𝑗 𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑓𝑗 𝑤𝑖𝑗; 𝑐𝑖𝑡 , 𝜃𝑖𝑡 , 𝜙𝑖 , 𝐴𝑖𝑗 − 𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑤𝑖𝑗𝑟𝑤

𝜃𝑖𝑡 ~ (𝜇, 𝜎2)

Assumes inter-seasonal myopic behavior (Foster et al. 2014)

Microeconomic Foundations: Policy Options

Stage 1:

𝐽𝑝𝑗𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑓𝑗 𝑤𝑖𝑗; 𝑐𝑖𝑡 , 𝜃𝑖𝑡, 𝜙𝑖 , 𝐴𝑖𝑗 − 𝐴𝑖𝑗(𝑟𝐴𝑗+𝜏𝐴) − 𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑤𝑖𝑗(𝑟𝑤+ 𝜏𝑤)

subject to 𝑗=1𝐽𝑤𝑖𝑗 ≤ 𝑊

• Planting Tax

• Pumping Tax

• Quota

Hydro-Economic Model

Agronomic

(Aquacrop)

Economic

Hydrologic

MODFLOW)

Hydrologic Model for RRCA designed by Slattery and Hendrix Engineering, downloaded from www.republicanrivercompact.org

Dynamic Linking

Groundwater levels

Well capacity

Pumping quantity

Results: Profit Path for 25% Reduction in Groundwater Pumping

Results: Uniform Policy Costs and Benefits after 50 years

Results: Spatially Differentiated Policy Costs and Benefits after 50 years

GWMD Results

Sand Hills Frenchman Plains Arikaree

licy C

Uniform Policy Spatially Differentiated Policy

Discussion

How do results inform management strategies for spatially dynamic common pool resources?

• Hydraulic conductivity and initial average well capacity define which GWMDs are targeted in spatially differentiated policy

• Incentives and disincentives for cooperation among GWMDs

Future Work

• Distributional impacts of spatially differentiated policies.

• Utilize survey instrument to elicit groundwater user preferences over management policies.

• Efficiency of voting mechanisms in groundwater management policy selection.

Questions?

• Appendix

Pumping by well capacity bins

300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 11000

Well Capacity (GPM)

Reported Pumping

Simulated Pumping

300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 11000

Well Capacity (GPM)

Reported Pumping

Simulated Pumping

Sandy Soil in North Region Sandy Soil in South Region

Agronomic Model (AquaCrop)

Generates water-crop yield production functions for

heterogeneous groundwater users accounting for variation

• Soil Type

• Climate Zone

• Weather Realization

• Well Capactiy

Well Capacity

• Maximum flow rate (gpm) that can be sustained over a period of time

Source: United States Geological Survey

Return

The Case for Spatially Differentiated Policies

Homogeneous Aquifer Saturated Thickness

Microeconomic Foundations: Policy Options

Stage 1:

𝐽𝑝𝑗𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑓𝑗 𝑤𝑖𝑗; 𝑐𝑖𝑡 , 𝜃𝑖𝑡, 𝜙𝑖 , 𝐴𝑖𝑗 − 𝐴𝑖𝑗(𝑟𝐴𝑗+𝜏𝐴) − 𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑤𝑖𝑗(𝑟𝑤+ 𝜏𝑤)

subject to 𝑗=1𝐽𝑤𝑖𝑗 ≤ 𝑊

• Planting Tax

• Pumping Tax

• Quota

Three management policies to address over-pumping of aquifer

• Qty restrict

• Uniform pumping tax

• Irrigated acreage fee

Table of policy type and levels

• What do the spatially differentiated policies look like?

• How did we characterize the heterogeneity of the spatial externality of pumping across GWMDs to inform the creation of the spatially differentiated policies

Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ... · Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping...

Documents

Wybrane charakterystyki e-learningu w polskich publicznych ... · 5 𝑁= 𝑤+ 𝑛= 𝑤+𝑃+𝐻+𝐷 gdzie: N –liczba uczelni ogółem U w –liczba uczelni deklarujących

Krótki wstęp do teorii chaosu - fuw.edu.plkonieczn/analiza/faq_chaos.pdf · Wykładnik Ljapunowa (Ляпуно́в) 𝛿𝑍(𝑡)≈𝑒𝜆𝑡𝛿𝑍 4 𝜆= lim 𝑡→∞

Deep Learning Basics Lecture 1: feedforward...Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) •Suppose data points arrive one by one •𝐿 =1 𝑛 σ𝑡=1 𝑛𝑙( , 𝑡, 𝑡), but we only

Lesson 1: Complementary and Supplementary Angles · 1. 𝐴𝐵𝐶 has angles ∠𝐴= 50° and ∠𝐶= 90° and side 𝐴𝐵= 5.5 cm. Draw triangle 𝐴′𝐵′𝐶′ under

HOW TO SUM FREQUENCY AND SECOND HARMONIC ......THEORY 𝑃 𝑡=𝜖 0[χ1𝐸 𝑡+χ2𝐸 𝑡+χ3𝐸 𝑡+⋯] 2ND ORDER NONLINEAR SUSCEPTIBILITY • SFG/ SHG • SELECTIVITY AT

O-NET 59 สโมสรแห่งหนึ่งมีสมาชิกเป็นชาย 𝑤 คน ...rathcenter.com/Exam/Onet/PrbBscOnet.pdf · o-net 59 31 ... ารวจขนาดของเสื้อยืดส

New York State Common Core 6 Mathematics Curriculum › wp-content › uploads › ... · can evaluate the formula for 𝑡: 𝑡= 4(12) + 3, 𝑡= 48 + 3, 𝑡= 51. Students continue

Carbon Nanotubes based Electrode Architectures for ... · Internal Resistance 𝑅 = 𝜌𝑡 𝐴 𝑅 𝑙= 𝐿 𝜅𝐴 𝑅𝑖 = 𝑡 𝜅 𝐴 𝑅𝑐 = 𝑅𝑇 𝑛𝐹𝑖0

· 2017-11-09 · 𝑥= 1 2 + 1 2 𝑐𝑐2𝑠 tan(𝐴−𝐵) = 𝐼𝑡𝐼𝐴−𝐼𝑡𝐼𝐵 1 + 𝐼𝑡𝐼𝐴𝐼𝑡𝐼𝐵 sin(𝐴−𝐵

CS335: Lexical Analysis · DFA to Minimal DFA: Hopcroft’s Algorithm Minimization = 𝐴, − 𝐴 =𝜙 while( ≠ )do = =𝜙 for each set L∈ do = ∪Split( L) Split(𝑺) for

Question 1 · 2020-05-28 · 1 Question 1 a) RTS: 1) '[ 𝑡| 0= 0]= 𝑡 0 2) '[ 𝑡| 0= 0]= 𝑡−1(1− ) 0 In the Greenwood model. We are given that '[ 𝑡| 𝑡−1]= 𝑡

Lecture 4: LU Decomposition and Matrix Inversethanghuynh.org/teaching/Math102_Lecture_4.pdfGaussian elimination on 𝐴: 𝐴 =⎡⎢ ⎣ 2 1 4 −6 ⎤⎥ ⎦ 𝐸𝐴 =⎡⎢ ⎣

Estimating Approximate Incentive Compatibility · 2020. 7. 30. · 𝑤,𝑘 𝐿 ⇒ 𝑤 𝛾ො−𝛾= ෨ 𝐿𝑤+ 𝑁 + 𝑑 𝑁 𝑑 𝑳𝒘𝒌 𝑵 • ≤𝑳𝒘+𝒌

𝑐 - thogharkogh.cba.am · 𝑃= 𝑐 𝑓 ∑ (1 (1+ 𝑦 100∗𝑓) 𝑖−1+𝑡) 𝑁 𝑖=1 + (100 (1+ 𝑦 100∗𝑓) 𝑁−1+𝑡) 𝑡= 𝑆𝑁

Dynamics of a Nonautonomous Stochastic SIS …downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2017/4861391.pdf4 Complexity obviously,wehave limsup 𝑡→+∞ 𝑆(𝑡)≤ 𝐴𝑢 𝑑𝑙

Desarrollos matemáticos para calcular el Indicador de ...eprints.rclis.org/24100/1/Indicador de previsión... · entre dos funciones, a las que vamos a llamar (𝑡) y (𝑡) cuyas

Mongeovo promítání · Určování sdružených průmětů bodu 𝐴, 𝐴, 𝐴pomocí souřadnic 1. Na základnici vyneseme -ovou souřadnici bodu –kladnou doprava, zápornou

Geometry and measure - Higher Trigonometry Sine Curve ... · Trigonometry 𝑂 𝐻 𝐶 𝐴 𝐻 𝑂 𝐴 Example – finding a side: sin37=𝑥 5 x = 5 x sin 370 Example – finding

Lecture notes on Social Security - Altervista...Note that 𝑡 is not equal to 𝑡 ∙𝑡 . The latter expression is the probability that both lives will die within t years, which

Impact characteristics of liquid nitrogen droplets...ሶ / ሶ • ሶ ~𝐴 ß 𝑇 −𝑇 𝛼𝑙 ç • ሶ ~𝐿 ሶ ≈𝐿 0.2( − æ)[1] 𝑄ሶ 𝑄ሶ 𝑎 ~𝐴 𝐿 𝑙