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Health, Nutrition and the U.S. Food Chain: Trends and New
Findings
OECD Food Chain Analysis NetworkMobilizing the Food Chain for Health
Oct 25-26, 2012
Jay Variyam, Branch ChiefFood Economics Division
Economic Research ServiceU.S. Department of Agriculture
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent the views of the ERS or the USDA
Consumers spend 10% on food
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Share of Personal Disposable Income
Share of Personal Disposable Income
Where that 10% went…
Innovation: Convenience
Variety and choice
Number of items carried by U.S. supermarkets
Consumers want …
• Taste• Low price• Convenience• Safety• Quality• Nutrition• Variety• Eco/Green
Overarching trends
I. Changing channels of food distribution
II. Differentiation
III. New products to meet changing consumer demand
I. Nontraditional Retailers Entry into the Retail Food Market
I. Expenditure Shares for Nontraditional Retailers Continue to Rise
Source: ERS Calculations using Nielsen Homescan Data
I. Wal-Mart Supercenters
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500
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3500
Nu
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er
of
U.S
. Sto
res
Wal-Mart Supercenters
II. Retail differentiation
Retailers are also differentiating with expanded productofferings
• Private label
• Prepared foods
• Fuel
• Organic foods
Organic Food Sales
III. Meeting consumer demand
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
New product introductions of consumer packaged goods, 1992 to 2010
Food and beverageNonfood
Nu
mb
er
III. Meeting consumer demand
New product introductions
2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Low or no carbLow or no trans fat
Nu
mb
er
Recent Findings
• Affordability of Healthy Foods• Access to Healthy Foods• Healthfulness of Purchases and
Consumption• Response to Information/Labeling
New Results: Affordability
• Are healthy foods more expensive?– Yes, if measured on per calorie basis– No, if measured on the basis of edible weight
or average portion size– In terms of the cost of meeting dietary
recommendations, it is less expensive to meet the grains, dairy, and fruits recommendations than the vegetables or protein grp recommen.
– http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/eib-economic-information-bulletin/eib96.aspx
Affordability
• Can low-income Americans afford meeting fruit and vegetables guidelines?– Stewart et al., Jrl of Nutrition Education &
Behavior, 2012 Best Article– Costs per cup-equivalent of fruits and
vegetables, including whole and cut fruit, fruit juice, dark green vegetables, orange vegetables, legumes, and others
Affordability
• In 2008, a variety of fruits and vegetables was available for an average cost of $0.40 to $0.50 per cup-equivalent
• Low-income Americans facing national average prices can satisfy fruit and vegetable guidelines with a standard budget
Access
• Hypothesized relationship between access to affordable & nutritious food and diet quality and obesity
• ERS “Food Deserts” project, 2009• Major update based on new data to be
released: Report in November and on-line map in December
Access: 2010 Data
• 27.9 million (9.7%) people live in low-income areas more than 1 mile from a supermarket (2010)
• 2.1 million (1.8%) households live more than 1 mile from store and do not have a vehicle
• 35.6 million (11.6%) low-income individuals live more than 1 mile from store
Access
• Multiple measures:– Area based– Individual-level– Self-reported access– Time traveling to grocery store
• 19.5 minutes in low-income/low access areas vs. 15.5 minutes in low-income/high access areas (ERS analysis of American Time Use Survey)
Healthfulness of Consumption
Healthfulness of Purchases
• What is the extent to which U.S. consumers are adhering to the Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) with their food-at-home (FAH) purchases?– Nielsen Homescan panel data– 1998-2006– Healthfulness measured based on USDA’s
2005 Healthy Eating Index
Healthfulness of Purchases
• Consumers purchase too few fruits, vegetables, and whole grains and too many refined grains, fats, and added sugars (compared to DGA)
• Healthfulness of the average food shopping basket did not improve between 1998 and 2006– Households shifted from refined grains toward whole
grains, but allocate less of their food budgets to fruits and vegetables and more toward processed and packaged foods
Information/Labeling
• The 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) recommended that half of all grains consumed be whole grains
• A comparison of grocery store bread purchases before and after the release of the 2005 DGA
• Quantity of whole-grain bread purchased rose 70 percent, while refined-grain bread purchases fell 13 percent
Information/Labeling
• Whole-grain prices fell relative to price of refined-grain bread
• After accounting for price changes and other factors, the 2005 Guidelines appear to have encouraged Americans to reduce purchases of refined-grain breads by 3 percent and increase purchases of whole grain bread by 14 percent
Information/Labeling
• Transfat labeling enforced in 2006• How did it affect reformulation?• ERS examined new product introductions
data 2005-2010– Most new food products do not contain trans
fats – Transfat content has been falling across all
product groups
Transfats
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Trans fat levels in new products have dropped dramatically over the last 5 years
Bakery Products
Prepared meals
Desserts
Processed meat/fish/eggs
Snacks
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service calculations using Mintel Global New Products Database.
Average trans fat con-tent, grmas per serv-
ing
Transfats
• New products without trans fats are likely to be lower in calories, sodium, and saturated fats than those containing trans fats. This suggests that food companies generally are not substituting these less healthy nutrients for trans fats when reformulating products to contain no trans fats
Assessing Food Access and Food Environment : Tools
• Food Desert Locator: • http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/foo
d-desert-locator.aspx
• Food Environment Atlas:• http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/foo
d-environment-atlas.aspx
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