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eurammon Symposium 2015
Heat pump market development in Europe
Pascal Westring
Schaffhausen, 25th/26th June, 2015
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 2 http://www.ehpa.org/market-data/
Full report available in
Summer 2015
2015
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 3
data from 21 countries
HP stock per 1000 households:
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 4
methodology – counting reversible HP
Reversible Air/air HP
for heating for cooling
usage depends on climate
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 5
100% cold
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 6
9.5% warm
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 7
0% average
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 8
market growth rates 2006 - 2014
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 9
+14% +16% +37% -9%
+7.4% p.a.
9% +1% -7% +3%
EU 11 EU 12 EU 14 EU 14 EU 19 EU 21 EU 21 EU 21 EU 21
market development 2005 – 2014 accumulated: 7.4 million units installed
EU 21
+3%
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 10
heat pump sales in Europe by energy source
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 11
split of heat pump sales 2010: by type
H-air/water: 14%
H-ground/water: 14%
Reversible air-air w/heating: 60%
Reversible other: 6%
Sanitary hot water: 4%
Exhaust air: 3%
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 12
split of heat pump sales 2014: by type
H-air/water: 20%
H-ground/water: 11%
Reversible air-air w/heating: 48%
Reversible other: 6%
Sanitary hot water: 14%
Exhaust air: 2%
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 13
heat pump sales 2014 by category
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 14
sanitary hot water heat pumps
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE IT LT NL NO PL PT SE SK UK
units > 20kW
units < 20kW
split of heat pump sales by capacity
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 16
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE IT LT NL NO PL PT SE SK UK
units > 20kW
units < 20kW
split of heat pump sales by capacity
?
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 17
706 467 units (89%)
top 10 heat pump markets
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 18
market performance = sales per 1000 households
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 19
- actual sales 2014
market potentials if Sweden was everywhere
total: 4.9 mio
potential: 83 459 units per year
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 20
11 464 11 773 11 252 11 100 12 025 11 567
9 107 8 209 7 652 8 300 7 254
6 940
443 618 1 320
2 097 3 260 4 282
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sanitary hot water
H-ground/water
H-air/water
development of the Swiss HP market
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 21
market drivers
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 22
market drivers
economic climate gdp growth
construction sector new buildings, renovations
decision factors costs, marketing, incentives, ..
sales
polic
y
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 23
dwelling stock by energy used for space heating
1. 2. 3. 4.
source: Entranze
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 24
economic growth 2014 (gdp at market prices) - %
source: Eurostat
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 25
*Residential buildings, except residences for communities
source: Eurostat
growth of building permits 2014 - % change
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 26
sales & construction of new buildings
source: Eurostat, EHPA
annual growth
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
building permits (EU-27)
heat pump sales (EU-21)
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 27
price ratio: electricity / gas - 2014
2.5
source: Eurostat
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 28
price ratio: electricity / gas - ordered
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 29
energy prices influence market performance y-Axis: sales per 1k households x-Axis: price ratio (electricity vs. gas)
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 30
taxation as hidden subsidies for fossile fuels? example case: Germany
source: Eurostat, EHPA
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 31
heat pump benefits
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 32
RES calculation
• (1) ERES = Qusable * (1 – 1/SPFHP category )
• (2) Qusable = saleshp category * HHP * Prated, HP category
input heat pump
operating hours
capacity
efficiency SPF
electricity
ambient heat
output
RES
usable heat
of which is renewable:
kWh
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 33
2.90 1.29
3.18 0.77
10.43
1.13 0.77 1.23
4.52
24.10
0.08 0.12
9.75
0.07 1.65
4.84
0.81 1.31
13.59
0.07 1.83
AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE IT LT NL NO PL PT SE SK UK
renewable energy provided - TWh based on the stock 2014
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 34
final energy consumption in Croatia 2012:
69 TWh
renewable energy provided - TWh
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 35
1.98
0.72
2.06
0.49
6.90
0.67 0.43 0.70
2.76
13.03
0.05 0.08
5.54
0.05 1.21
2.56
0.54 0.75
9.21
0.04 1.04
AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE IT LT NL NO PL PT SE SK UK
primary energy savings - TWh based on the stock 2014
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 36
energy by German wind farms 2012
46 TWh
primary energy savings - TWh
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 37
0.76 0.33
0.82
0.20
2.71
0.29 0.20 0.32
1.17
6.13
0.02 0.03
2.49
0.02 0.44
1.23
0.21 0.34
3.55
0.02 0.47
AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE IT LT NL NO PL PT SE SK UK
greenhouse gas emission reduction - Mt based on the stock 2014
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 38
CO2 emitted by Croatia 2010
21 Mt
greenhouse gas emission reduction - Mt
Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 39
employment 2014 in man-years: 42 124
Heat pump maunfacturing
36%
Component manufacturing
18%
Installing of HP and heat source
30%
Service and maintenance
16%
• total employment is higher • technology leadership is in Europe
Contact:
Pascal Westring EHPA
Rue d’Arlon 63-67, 1000 Brussels Belgium
pascal.westring@ehpa.org
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