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Higher Education and Research in 2020:
A view from the World Bank
CHEPS 20th Anniversary Conference
Enschede, 16 September 2004
CHEPS’scenarios on higher education &
research
outline of the presentation...
• how different is the future?
• implications for developing countries
• implications for the World Bank
outline of the presentation...
• how different is the future?
the future has already arrived...
networks
new education technologies
business-like management practices
tuition fees, vouchers & student loans
multi-faceted quality assurance systems
convergence vs. diversity: are the scenarios
mutually exclusive?
demographics
pedagogical model
basic vs. applied research
quality assurance
funding
presence of private providers
missing
global dimensions and influences countries (China, India, USA) borderless providers brain drain
new providers
long distance competition
franchise universities
corporate universities
media companies, libraries, museums & secondary schools
education brokers
missing
global dimensions and influences countries (China, India, USA) borderless providers brain drain
non-university institutions
missing
global dimensions and influences countries (China, India, USA) borderless providers brain drain
non-university institutions
academic & pedagogical revolution
academic dimensions
learning and motivation of the student
shape of the university
language policy
duration of degree validity
multi-disciplinarity
problem-based learning
technology-enhanced, interactive learning
life long learning
life long learning, 80 years later
university of the future?
postgraduate
studies
first degree
continuing education
GRIN:technologies of the future
genomics personal genomics RNAi therapy
robotics
information synthetic biology universal translation Bayesian machine learning distributed storage power grid control
nanotechnology nanowires microfluidic optical fibers
the brick university
the brick university
the click university
missing
global dimensions and influences countries (China, India, USA) borderless providers brain drain
non-university institutions
academic & pedagogical revolution
realism about political economy of reform and potential disparities
the volatile setting
missing
global dimensions and influences countries (China, India, USA) borderless providers brain drain
non-university institutions
academic & pedagogical revolution
realism about political economy of reform and potential disparities
regional role of universities
missing
global dimensions and influences countries (China, India, USA) borderless providers brain drain
non-university institutions
academic & pedagogical revolution
realism about political economy of reform and potential disparities
regional role of universities
international role of European universities (business vs. solidarity)
outline of the presentation...
• how different is the future?
• implications for developing countries
is it at all relevant?
aren’t the problems totally different?
similar challenges
new education and training needs linked to
globalization and competitiveness agenda
increased competition from foreign
providers
tapping the potential of new information &
communication technologies
common quality concerns
diploma mills
franchise universities
virtual universities
e-learning
individualized learning
similar history
in most developing countries,
universities built after European
model
colonial model
Humboldt model
outline of the presentation...
• how different is the future?
• implications for developing countries
• implications for the World Bank
focus of support
country level
global level
at the country level
support for reforms through
policy dialogue
financing
technical assistance
flexibility
strategic planning to provide direction for change
close linkages with the economic and social environment for adequate feedback
ability to react and adapt rapidly
global public goods
brain drain
quality assurance for borderless education
trade barriers
ICT infrastructure (access and pricing)
intellectual property rights
the digital divide(i) Distribution of Internet Hosts
Developing Countries (5.9%)
Australia, Japan & New Zealand
(6.4%)
Europe 22.4%
Canada & United States
(65.3%)
(ii) Distribution of World Population
Canada & United States (5.1%)
Europe (12.0%)
Australia, Japan & New Zealand
(2.5%)
Developing Countries (80.4%)
15
34
159
185
256
460
776
2731
3138
4237
4493
5304
5375
5397
5519
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Bangladesh
Pakistan
India
Vietnam
Philippines
China
Thailand
Malaysia
France
Germany
Japan
Netherlands
United States
Singapore
Korea
Internet Users per 10,000 people,
(2002)
conclusion
Forecasts are typically difficult
to make,
Forecasts are typically difficult
to make, especially about
the future.
Niels Bohr
what we can be sure of
changing technologies
changing demand: growing, more diversified, less local
growing competition (for resources and customers) among similar institutions among diverse providers
competing in the learning society...
competing in the learning society...
competing in the learning society...
competing in the learning society...
a vision for the future
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