Historical context Environmental migration from past to present

Historical contextEnvironmental migration from past to present

Environment & Migration

Migration triggered by environmental events

Environment as a pull factor

When one looks at the population densities on a world-scale, it is clear that population distribution has been hugely influenced by environmental conditions

Anticipative migration

Ex.: The purchase of Kioa island by Vaitupu islanders, 1951.

An emerging concept

First mentioned in the 1970s First UNEP report in 1985 Growing interest in the mid-2000s:

Realisation of the impacts of climate change Major natural disasters

Tsunami 2004 Katrina 2005 Pakistan earthquake 2005

> Confusion between displacements linked to climate change and other environmental degradation.

What has changed? Issue of magnitude

Some predict up to 200 Mios displaced by 2050 This could double the number of migration

worldwide

Issue of responsibility

Could open the way for global cooperation … and compensation

How the debate is conceptualised today

The alarmist perspective Made up primarily of environmental scholars, NGOs, and

the media Sees migration flows as one of the most devastating

consequences of climate change Policy agenda: mobilise action around climate change Dominant perspective

The sceptical perspective Made up primarily of migration scholars and refugee

lawyers Insists on the multi-causality of migration Policy agenda: protect current rights of migrants and

refugees

‘A disaster ready for consumption’ (Farbotko 2011) A debate disconnected from the realities of migration

Migrants are seen as expiatory, resourceless victims of climate change. Many of them don’t consider themselves as victims, or don’t want to be considered as

such. Migrants are resourceful agents – they are not the most vulnerable.

Migration is perceived as an adaptation failure In many cases, it can be an adaptation strategy.

We assume a direct, causal relationship between climate change and migration.

We expect that these displacements will be forced and international.

We assume that the nature and extent of the migration flows will depend upon the impacts of climate change. Environmental determinism

Climate-induced migration often perceived as a threat to security. In many cases, it can actually improve human security.

London Futures, exhibition at the Museum of London

The distribution of net population displacement over the twenty-first century by region assuming no protection for a 0.5 m (grey bars) and a 2.0 m (black bars) rise in sea level.

Nicholls R J et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:161-181

A deterministic perspective

A security agenda

WBGU 2008