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SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
CONTENTS JUNE 2014
4 From The Publisher
6 Questions for CatonBredar takes your Qs each issue Belmont Stakes in the spotlight
14 The Teaser
Topics that titillate the racing mind
9 Back to Night School ndash
StakesBelmont HandicappingTop players from the best of Night School help your Derby decisions
18 Good Vs GreatNadeau analyzes the Triple Crown debate amp why many failed
34 Countdown to the Crown
Plonk analyzes all Belmont hopes and delivers his final picks in the Season 9 finale scouting report
29 Tripping OutShottenkirk looks at what has been successful in the Belmont Stakes
48 Harness HandicappingWarkentin features the legendary driver Cat Manzis career
50 North America Cup PreviewGet insight on our Night School Tour Mohawk stop coming June 14
44 BRIS Handicapping Hints
DeRosa dissects Belmont Park stats
52 AQHA Handicapping
Hancock asks the pedigree question Whos Your Daddy
56 Winning AnglesSpencer commentary shines light on Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream Park
64 Stakes ScheduleKey Dates
60 Playing on Paper
See our marked PPs and attack for non-winners of 2 claiming races
69 Galloping Out
Chromes good hands people
3
From the Publisher
Life not just sports can be a game of inches So while a loss by Real Quiet in the
rsquo98 Belmont by a finger-squeeze may have hurt for a while reality usually brings us back to work on Monday bills on the 31st and the next situation begging us to be ldquothis closerdquo to our goal
Yes the Triple Crown has sat vacant since 1978 We will watch with bated breath as California Chrome tries his hand at solving racingrsquos Rubikrsquos Cube After 2 frac12 minutes we will have our answer
The joy will be grand in victory the disappointment strong in defeat Either way wersquoll all look back one day and say we were inches away from it all ndash either literally by our presence watching or figuratively by how close we once again came
Soon enough it will be Monday not to mention the 31st and life will return to normalcy with or without a Triple Crown winner But even if itrsquos not that important in the grand scheme of things wouldnrsquot it sure be cool Enjoy the ride - JP
Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014
Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved
Editor Publisher Designer Jeremy Plonk
Contributing Writers Caton Bredar
Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau
Brian W Spencer Jennifer Hancock Ken Warkentin
Ed DeRosa
Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)
Contributing Photographers Adam Coglianese NYRA
Michael Lisa MeadowlandsMichael Burns Woodbine
Tom Baker Horse Player NOW Jim McCue Maryland Jockey Club Jerry Dzierwinski MD Jockey Club
Ken Weingartner USTA
4
5
Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom
Each issue wersquoll take your questions for Caton Bredar Horse Player NOW analyst Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV
WHY DO YOU THINK ITrsquoS BEEN SO LONG SINCE THE LAST TRIPLE CROWN WINNER
Relative to the history of the event it really hasnt been THAT long between Triple Crown winners true 36 years is the longest dry spell but it was 11 years between Sir Barton and Gallant Fox the first and second TC winners and then it was 25 years between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 73
I do think the emphasis on speed rather than stamina and the way the bloodstock business has changed over the years has also led to fewer true mile and one-half type horses That may be a part of the problem
Finally when the purse was bolstered to a million dollars back in 1998 the average field size for the Belmont increased almost exponentially The average field
size in the Belmont for a Triple Crown winner is 54 runners since 1998 the average field size for the Belmont stakes has been 11 making it that much tougher for any would-be TC runner to actually seal the deal
WHATrsquoS THE MOST IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING ELEMENT FOR EVALUATING
THE BELMONT STAKES
I think you need to have a horse who seems able to handle the distance by virtue of pedigree or running style or both AND you need to have a horse whos blossoming at the right time
6
Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom
Last year Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont He was focused he was training exceptionally well he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldnt be a problem
You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario but at the end of the day regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner
DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT
While the field size and the fact that for the first time hes had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors I believe
California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful weve seen since Silver Charm was
denied in 1997 by Touch Gold
Hes beaten nearly everyone hell be facing hes versatile he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldnt be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip hes gotten in the
previous two races
Ive been wrong before but hey
its more fun to dream
Follow me CBredar
7
This monthrsquos topic of review
STAKES HANDICAPPING
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like
All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races
9
2012 Video Stakes Handicapping
Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo
with Brian Nadeau - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link
Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes
Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School
instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample
Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win
Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip
10
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING
Live chat with top handicappers as we
analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and
supporting races
JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS
12-week Summer Semester begins as we
take a newbie approach to real-time
action from Mountaineer Park
JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash
MONEY MANAGEMENT
Watch a live card as our team shows how
they balance a budget
JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash
CLASSCONDITIONS
The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types
LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash
PACE HANDICAPPING
We take aim at race shape and pace
analysis in real-time to open July
11
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
THE TEASER
From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense
Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase
The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo
In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in
1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the
role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process
Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their
defense of being accused of knocking over
assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
14
because his mount refused to approach the tape
When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation
In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry
Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life
Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance
While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and
Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood
ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said
ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance
ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟
McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue
ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said
15
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
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average handle on live racing approaching $3000000per card
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Average Pool $49178Average $1 Payout $6286
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PICK 5 [RACES 1-5]
Average Pool $43290Average $1 Payout $2302
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EARLY PICK 4 [RACES 3-6]
Average Pool $70211Average $1 Payout $5825
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LATE PICK 4 [RACES 7-10]
low take out of 15 low take out of 15
ALL OFFERED WITH A 50cent MINIMUM
THECaptain returns
$100000 eMEADOWLANDS MATURITY
$50000 LEG OF THE
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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the
Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
CONTENTS JUNE 2014
4 From The Publisher
6 Questions for CatonBredar takes your Qs each issue Belmont Stakes in the spotlight
14 The Teaser
Topics that titillate the racing mind
9 Back to Night School ndash
StakesBelmont HandicappingTop players from the best of Night School help your Derby decisions
18 Good Vs GreatNadeau analyzes the Triple Crown debate amp why many failed
34 Countdown to the Crown
Plonk analyzes all Belmont hopes and delivers his final picks in the Season 9 finale scouting report
29 Tripping OutShottenkirk looks at what has been successful in the Belmont Stakes
48 Harness HandicappingWarkentin features the legendary driver Cat Manzis career
50 North America Cup PreviewGet insight on our Night School Tour Mohawk stop coming June 14
44 BRIS Handicapping Hints
DeRosa dissects Belmont Park stats
52 AQHA Handicapping
Hancock asks the pedigree question Whos Your Daddy
56 Winning AnglesSpencer commentary shines light on Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream Park
64 Stakes ScheduleKey Dates
60 Playing on Paper
See our marked PPs and attack for non-winners of 2 claiming races
69 Galloping Out
Chromes good hands people
3
From the Publisher
Life not just sports can be a game of inches So while a loss by Real Quiet in the
rsquo98 Belmont by a finger-squeeze may have hurt for a while reality usually brings us back to work on Monday bills on the 31st and the next situation begging us to be ldquothis closerdquo to our goal
Yes the Triple Crown has sat vacant since 1978 We will watch with bated breath as California Chrome tries his hand at solving racingrsquos Rubikrsquos Cube After 2 frac12 minutes we will have our answer
The joy will be grand in victory the disappointment strong in defeat Either way wersquoll all look back one day and say we were inches away from it all ndash either literally by our presence watching or figuratively by how close we once again came
Soon enough it will be Monday not to mention the 31st and life will return to normalcy with or without a Triple Crown winner But even if itrsquos not that important in the grand scheme of things wouldnrsquot it sure be cool Enjoy the ride - JP
Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014
Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved
Editor Publisher Designer Jeremy Plonk
Contributing Writers Caton Bredar
Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau
Brian W Spencer Jennifer Hancock Ken Warkentin
Ed DeRosa
Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)
Contributing Photographers Adam Coglianese NYRA
Michael Lisa MeadowlandsMichael Burns Woodbine
Tom Baker Horse Player NOW Jim McCue Maryland Jockey Club Jerry Dzierwinski MD Jockey Club
Ken Weingartner USTA
4
5
Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom
Each issue wersquoll take your questions for Caton Bredar Horse Player NOW analyst Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV
WHY DO YOU THINK ITrsquoS BEEN SO LONG SINCE THE LAST TRIPLE CROWN WINNER
Relative to the history of the event it really hasnt been THAT long between Triple Crown winners true 36 years is the longest dry spell but it was 11 years between Sir Barton and Gallant Fox the first and second TC winners and then it was 25 years between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 73
I do think the emphasis on speed rather than stamina and the way the bloodstock business has changed over the years has also led to fewer true mile and one-half type horses That may be a part of the problem
Finally when the purse was bolstered to a million dollars back in 1998 the average field size for the Belmont increased almost exponentially The average field
size in the Belmont for a Triple Crown winner is 54 runners since 1998 the average field size for the Belmont stakes has been 11 making it that much tougher for any would-be TC runner to actually seal the deal
WHATrsquoS THE MOST IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING ELEMENT FOR EVALUATING
THE BELMONT STAKES
I think you need to have a horse who seems able to handle the distance by virtue of pedigree or running style or both AND you need to have a horse whos blossoming at the right time
6
Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom
Last year Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont He was focused he was training exceptionally well he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldnt be a problem
You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario but at the end of the day regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner
DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT
While the field size and the fact that for the first time hes had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors I believe
California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful weve seen since Silver Charm was
denied in 1997 by Touch Gold
Hes beaten nearly everyone hell be facing hes versatile he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldnt be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip hes gotten in the
previous two races
Ive been wrong before but hey
its more fun to dream
Follow me CBredar
7
This monthrsquos topic of review
STAKES HANDICAPPING
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like
All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races
9
2012 Video Stakes Handicapping
Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo
with Brian Nadeau - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link
Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes
Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School
instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample
Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win
Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip
10
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING
Live chat with top handicappers as we
analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and
supporting races
JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS
12-week Summer Semester begins as we
take a newbie approach to real-time
action from Mountaineer Park
JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash
MONEY MANAGEMENT
Watch a live card as our team shows how
they balance a budget
JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash
CLASSCONDITIONS
The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types
LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash
PACE HANDICAPPING
We take aim at race shape and pace
analysis in real-time to open July
11
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
THE TEASER
From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense
Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase
The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo
In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in
1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the
role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process
Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their
defense of being accused of knocking over
assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
14
because his mount refused to approach the tape
When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation
In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry
Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life
Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance
While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and
Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood
ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said
ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance
ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟
McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue
ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said
15
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
LIVE RACING FRI amp SAT | FIRST POST 715 PM | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M
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average handle on live racing approaching $3000000per card
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Average Pool $49178Average $1 Payout $6286
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Average Pool $43290Average $1 Payout $2302
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EARLY PICK 4 [RACES 3-6]
Average Pool $70211Average $1 Payout $5825
$50000 G
LATE PICK 4 [RACES 7-10]
low take out of 15 low take out of 15
ALL OFFERED WITH A 50cent MINIMUM
THECaptain returns
$100000 eMEADOWLANDS MATURITY
$50000 LEG OF THE
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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the
Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
From the Publisher
Life not just sports can be a game of inches So while a loss by Real Quiet in the
rsquo98 Belmont by a finger-squeeze may have hurt for a while reality usually brings us back to work on Monday bills on the 31st and the next situation begging us to be ldquothis closerdquo to our goal
Yes the Triple Crown has sat vacant since 1978 We will watch with bated breath as California Chrome tries his hand at solving racingrsquos Rubikrsquos Cube After 2 frac12 minutes we will have our answer
The joy will be grand in victory the disappointment strong in defeat Either way wersquoll all look back one day and say we were inches away from it all ndash either literally by our presence watching or figuratively by how close we once again came
Soon enough it will be Monday not to mention the 31st and life will return to normalcy with or without a Triple Crown winner But even if itrsquos not that important in the grand scheme of things wouldnrsquot it sure be cool Enjoy the ride - JP
Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014
Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved
Editor Publisher Designer Jeremy Plonk
Contributing Writers Caton Bredar
Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau
Brian W Spencer Jennifer Hancock Ken Warkentin
Ed DeRosa
Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)
Contributing Photographers Adam Coglianese NYRA
Michael Lisa MeadowlandsMichael Burns Woodbine
Tom Baker Horse Player NOW Jim McCue Maryland Jockey Club Jerry Dzierwinski MD Jockey Club
Ken Weingartner USTA
4
5
Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom
Each issue wersquoll take your questions for Caton Bredar Horse Player NOW analyst Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV
WHY DO YOU THINK ITrsquoS BEEN SO LONG SINCE THE LAST TRIPLE CROWN WINNER
Relative to the history of the event it really hasnt been THAT long between Triple Crown winners true 36 years is the longest dry spell but it was 11 years between Sir Barton and Gallant Fox the first and second TC winners and then it was 25 years between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 73
I do think the emphasis on speed rather than stamina and the way the bloodstock business has changed over the years has also led to fewer true mile and one-half type horses That may be a part of the problem
Finally when the purse was bolstered to a million dollars back in 1998 the average field size for the Belmont increased almost exponentially The average field
size in the Belmont for a Triple Crown winner is 54 runners since 1998 the average field size for the Belmont stakes has been 11 making it that much tougher for any would-be TC runner to actually seal the deal
WHATrsquoS THE MOST IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING ELEMENT FOR EVALUATING
THE BELMONT STAKES
I think you need to have a horse who seems able to handle the distance by virtue of pedigree or running style or both AND you need to have a horse whos blossoming at the right time
6
Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom
Last year Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont He was focused he was training exceptionally well he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldnt be a problem
You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario but at the end of the day regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner
DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT
While the field size and the fact that for the first time hes had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors I believe
California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful weve seen since Silver Charm was
denied in 1997 by Touch Gold
Hes beaten nearly everyone hell be facing hes versatile he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldnt be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip hes gotten in the
previous two races
Ive been wrong before but hey
its more fun to dream
Follow me CBredar
7
This monthrsquos topic of review
STAKES HANDICAPPING
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like
All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races
9
2012 Video Stakes Handicapping
Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo
with Brian Nadeau - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link
Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes
Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School
instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample
Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win
Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip
10
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING
Live chat with top handicappers as we
analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and
supporting races
JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS
12-week Summer Semester begins as we
take a newbie approach to real-time
action from Mountaineer Park
JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash
MONEY MANAGEMENT
Watch a live card as our team shows how
they balance a budget
JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash
CLASSCONDITIONS
The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types
LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash
PACE HANDICAPPING
We take aim at race shape and pace
analysis in real-time to open July
11
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on the go
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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
THE TEASER
From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense
Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase
The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo
In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in
1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the
role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process
Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their
defense of being accused of knocking over
assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
14
because his mount refused to approach the tape
When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation
In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry
Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life
Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance
While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and
Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood
ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said
ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance
ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟
McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue
ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said
15
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
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$100000 eMEADOWLANDS MATURITY
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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the
Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
5
Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom
Each issue wersquoll take your questions for Caton Bredar Horse Player NOW analyst Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV
WHY DO YOU THINK ITrsquoS BEEN SO LONG SINCE THE LAST TRIPLE CROWN WINNER
Relative to the history of the event it really hasnt been THAT long between Triple Crown winners true 36 years is the longest dry spell but it was 11 years between Sir Barton and Gallant Fox the first and second TC winners and then it was 25 years between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 73
I do think the emphasis on speed rather than stamina and the way the bloodstock business has changed over the years has also led to fewer true mile and one-half type horses That may be a part of the problem
Finally when the purse was bolstered to a million dollars back in 1998 the average field size for the Belmont increased almost exponentially The average field
size in the Belmont for a Triple Crown winner is 54 runners since 1998 the average field size for the Belmont stakes has been 11 making it that much tougher for any would-be TC runner to actually seal the deal
WHATrsquoS THE MOST IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING ELEMENT FOR EVALUATING
THE BELMONT STAKES
I think you need to have a horse who seems able to handle the distance by virtue of pedigree or running style or both AND you need to have a horse whos blossoming at the right time
6
Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom
Last year Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont He was focused he was training exceptionally well he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldnt be a problem
You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario but at the end of the day regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner
DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT
While the field size and the fact that for the first time hes had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors I believe
California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful weve seen since Silver Charm was
denied in 1997 by Touch Gold
Hes beaten nearly everyone hell be facing hes versatile he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldnt be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip hes gotten in the
previous two races
Ive been wrong before but hey
its more fun to dream
Follow me CBredar
7
This monthrsquos topic of review
STAKES HANDICAPPING
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like
All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races
9
2012 Video Stakes Handicapping
Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo
with Brian Nadeau - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link
Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes
Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School
instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample
Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win
Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip
10
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JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING
Live chat with top handicappers as we
analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and
supporting races
JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS
12-week Summer Semester begins as we
take a newbie approach to real-time
action from Mountaineer Park
JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash
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Watch a live card as our team shows how
they balance a budget
JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash
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The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types
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We take aim at race shape and pace
analysis in real-time to open July
11
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03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
THE TEASER
From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense
Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase
The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo
In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in
1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the
role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process
Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their
defense of being accused of knocking over
assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
14
because his mount refused to approach the tape
When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation
In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry
Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life
Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance
While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and
Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood
ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said
ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance
ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟
McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue
ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said
15
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
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THECaptain returns
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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the
Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom
Each issue wersquoll take your questions for Caton Bredar Horse Player NOW analyst Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV
WHY DO YOU THINK ITrsquoS BEEN SO LONG SINCE THE LAST TRIPLE CROWN WINNER
Relative to the history of the event it really hasnt been THAT long between Triple Crown winners true 36 years is the longest dry spell but it was 11 years between Sir Barton and Gallant Fox the first and second TC winners and then it was 25 years between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 73
I do think the emphasis on speed rather than stamina and the way the bloodstock business has changed over the years has also led to fewer true mile and one-half type horses That may be a part of the problem
Finally when the purse was bolstered to a million dollars back in 1998 the average field size for the Belmont increased almost exponentially The average field
size in the Belmont for a Triple Crown winner is 54 runners since 1998 the average field size for the Belmont stakes has been 11 making it that much tougher for any would-be TC runner to actually seal the deal
WHATrsquoS THE MOST IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING ELEMENT FOR EVALUATING
THE BELMONT STAKES
I think you need to have a horse who seems able to handle the distance by virtue of pedigree or running style or both AND you need to have a horse whos blossoming at the right time
6
Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom
Last year Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont He was focused he was training exceptionally well he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldnt be a problem
You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario but at the end of the day regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner
DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT
While the field size and the fact that for the first time hes had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors I believe
California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful weve seen since Silver Charm was
denied in 1997 by Touch Gold
Hes beaten nearly everyone hell be facing hes versatile he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldnt be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip hes gotten in the
previous two races
Ive been wrong before but hey
its more fun to dream
Follow me CBredar
7
This monthrsquos topic of review
STAKES HANDICAPPING
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like
All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races
9
2012 Video Stakes Handicapping
Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo
with Brian Nadeau - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link
Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes
Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School
instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample
Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win
Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip
10
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING
Live chat with top handicappers as we
analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and
supporting races
JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS
12-week Summer Semester begins as we
take a newbie approach to real-time
action from Mountaineer Park
JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash
MONEY MANAGEMENT
Watch a live card as our team shows how
they balance a budget
JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash
CLASSCONDITIONS
The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types
LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash
PACE HANDICAPPING
We take aim at race shape and pace
analysis in real-time to open July
11
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
THE TEASER
From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense
Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase
The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo
In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in
1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the
role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process
Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their
defense of being accused of knocking over
assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
14
because his mount refused to approach the tape
When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation
In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry
Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life
Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance
While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and
Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood
ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said
ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance
ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟
McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue
ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said
15
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
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Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom
Last year Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont He was focused he was training exceptionally well he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldnt be a problem
You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario but at the end of the day regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner
DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT
While the field size and the fact that for the first time hes had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors I believe
California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful weve seen since Silver Charm was
denied in 1997 by Touch Gold
Hes beaten nearly everyone hell be facing hes versatile he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldnt be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip hes gotten in the
previous two races
Ive been wrong before but hey
its more fun to dream
Follow me CBredar
7
This monthrsquos topic of review
STAKES HANDICAPPING
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like
All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races
9
2012 Video Stakes Handicapping
Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo
with Brian Nadeau - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link
Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes
Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School
instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample
Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win
Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip
10
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING
Live chat with top handicappers as we
analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and
supporting races
JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS
12-week Summer Semester begins as we
take a newbie approach to real-time
action from Mountaineer Park
JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash
MONEY MANAGEMENT
Watch a live card as our team shows how
they balance a budget
JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash
CLASSCONDITIONS
The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types
LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash
PACE HANDICAPPING
We take aim at race shape and pace
analysis in real-time to open July
11
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
THE TEASER
From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense
Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase
The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo
In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in
1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the
role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process
Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their
defense of being accused of knocking over
assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
14
because his mount refused to approach the tape
When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation
In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry
Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life
Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance
While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and
Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood
ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said
ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance
ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟
McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue
ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said
15
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
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THECaptain returns
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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the
Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
This monthrsquos topic of review
STAKES HANDICAPPING
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like
All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races
9
2012 Video Stakes Handicapping
Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo
with Brian Nadeau - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link
Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes
Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School
instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample
Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win
Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip
10
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING
Live chat with top handicappers as we
analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and
supporting races
JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS
12-week Summer Semester begins as we
take a newbie approach to real-time
action from Mountaineer Park
JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash
MONEY MANAGEMENT
Watch a live card as our team shows how
they balance a budget
JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash
CLASSCONDITIONS
The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types
LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash
PACE HANDICAPPING
We take aim at race shape and pace
analysis in real-time to open July
11
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
THE TEASER
From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense
Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase
The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo
In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in
1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the
role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process
Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their
defense of being accused of knocking over
assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
14
because his mount refused to approach the tape
When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation
In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry
Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life
Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance
While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and
Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood
ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said
ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance
ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟
McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue
ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said
15
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
LIVE RACING FRI amp SAT | FIRST POST 715 PM | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M
$3 MIL
average handle on live racing approaching $3000000per card
AVERAGE HANDLE
Average Pool $49178Average $1 Payout $6286
$25000 G
PICK 5 [RACES 1-5]
Average Pool $43290Average $1 Payout $2302
$30000 G
EARLY PICK 4 [RACES 3-6]
Average Pool $70211Average $1 Payout $5825
$50000 G
LATE PICK 4 [RACES 7-10]
low take out of 15 low take out of 15
ALL OFFERED WITH A 50cent MINIMUM
THECaptain returns
$100000 eMEADOWLANDS MATURITY
$50000 LEG OF THE
TVG FFA TROT
3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the
Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
2012 Video Stakes Handicapping
Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo
with Brian Nadeau - link
2013 Video Stakes Handicapping
with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link
Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes
Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School
instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample
Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win
Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip
10
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING
Live chat with top handicappers as we
analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and
supporting races
JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS
12-week Summer Semester begins as we
take a newbie approach to real-time
action from Mountaineer Park
JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash
MONEY MANAGEMENT
Watch a live card as our team shows how
they balance a budget
JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash
CLASSCONDITIONS
The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types
LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash
PACE HANDICAPPING
We take aim at race shape and pace
analysis in real-time to open July
11
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
THE TEASER
From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense
Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase
The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo
In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in
1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the
role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process
Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their
defense of being accused of knocking over
assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
14
because his mount refused to approach the tape
When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation
In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry
Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life
Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance
While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and
Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood
ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said
ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance
ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟
McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue
ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said
15
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
LIVE RACING FRI amp SAT | FIRST POST 715 PM | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M
$3 MIL
average handle on live racing approaching $3000000per card
AVERAGE HANDLE
Average Pool $49178Average $1 Payout $6286
$25000 G
PICK 5 [RACES 1-5]
Average Pool $43290Average $1 Payout $2302
$30000 G
EARLY PICK 4 [RACES 3-6]
Average Pool $70211Average $1 Payout $5825
$50000 G
LATE PICK 4 [RACES 7-10]
low take out of 15 low take out of 15
ALL OFFERED WITH A 50cent MINIMUM
THECaptain returns
$100000 eMEADOWLANDS MATURITY
$50000 LEG OF THE
TVG FFA TROT
3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the
Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
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JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING
Live chat with top handicappers as we
analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and
supporting races
JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS
12-week Summer Semester begins as we
take a newbie approach to real-time
action from Mountaineer Park
JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash
MONEY MANAGEMENT
Watch a live card as our team shows how
they balance a budget
JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash
CLASSCONDITIONS
The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types
LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash
PACE HANDICAPPING
We take aim at race shape and pace
analysis in real-time to open July
11
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Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
THE TEASER
From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense
Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase
The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo
In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in
1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the
role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process
Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their
defense of being accused of knocking over
assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
14
because his mount refused to approach the tape
When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation
In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry
Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life
Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance
While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and
Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood
ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said
ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance
ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟
McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue
ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said
15
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
LIVE RACING FRI amp SAT | FIRST POST 715 PM | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M
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average handle on live racing approaching $3000000per card
AVERAGE HANDLE
Average Pool $49178Average $1 Payout $6286
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PICK 5 [RACES 1-5]
Average Pool $43290Average $1 Payout $2302
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EARLY PICK 4 [RACES 3-6]
Average Pool $70211Average $1 Payout $5825
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LATE PICK 4 [RACES 7-10]
low take out of 15 low take out of 15
ALL OFFERED WITH A 50cent MINIMUM
THECaptain returns
$100000 eMEADOWLANDS MATURITY
$50000 LEG OF THE
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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the
Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
THE TEASER
From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense
Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase
The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo
In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in
1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the
role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process
Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their
defense of being accused of knocking over
assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
14
because his mount refused to approach the tape
When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation
In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry
Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life
Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance
While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and
Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood
ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said
ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance
ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟
McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue
ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said
15
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
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Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
THE TEASER
From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense
Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase
The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo
In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in
1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the
role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process
Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their
defense of being accused of knocking over
assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
14
because his mount refused to approach the tape
When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation
In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry
Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life
Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance
While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and
Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood
ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said
ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance
ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟
McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue
ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said
15
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
LIVE RACING FRI amp SAT | FIRST POST 715 PM | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M
$3 MIL
average handle on live racing approaching $3000000per card
AVERAGE HANDLE
Average Pool $49178Average $1 Payout $6286
$25000 G
PICK 5 [RACES 1-5]
Average Pool $43290Average $1 Payout $2302
$30000 G
EARLY PICK 4 [RACES 3-6]
Average Pool $70211Average $1 Payout $5825
$50000 G
LATE PICK 4 [RACES 7-10]
low take out of 15 low take out of 15
ALL OFFERED WITH A 50cent MINIMUM
THECaptain returns
$100000 eMEADOWLANDS MATURITY
$50000 LEG OF THE
TVG FFA TROT
3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the
Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
because his mount refused to approach the tape
When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation
In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry
Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life
Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance
While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and
Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood
ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said
ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance
ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟
McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue
ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said
15
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
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THECaptain returns
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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the
Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities
Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck
In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse
Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo
All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction
In Elite Company
Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it
The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus
Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck
After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first
16
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
LIVE RACING FRI amp SAT | FIRST POST 715 PM | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M
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THECaptain returns
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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the
Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico
This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife
A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either
It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race
To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟
She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans
- HPN
Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs
before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker
in the history books afterward
17
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LIVE RACING FRI amp SAT | FIRST POST 715 PM | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M
$3 MIL
average handle on live racing approaching $3000000per card
AVERAGE HANDLE
Average Pool $49178Average $1 Payout $6286
$25000 G
PICK 5 [RACES 1-5]
Average Pool $43290Average $1 Payout $2302
$30000 G
EARLY PICK 4 [RACES 3-6]
Average Pool $70211Average $1 Payout $5825
$50000 G
LATE PICK 4 [RACES 7-10]
low take out of 15 low take out of 15
ALL OFFERED WITH A 50cent MINIMUM
THECaptain returns
$100000 eMEADOWLANDS MATURITY
$50000 LEG OF THE
TVG FFA TROT
3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the
Race Card also features
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
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GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE
By Brian Nadeau
Itrsquos not easy this thing they call
the Triple Crown Irsquove been
involved in racing for the better
part of 20 years and in that time
Irsquove witnessed a somewhat
astonishing eight Triple Crown
misses over that span ndash seven who
made it to the gate and one who
did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like
to think I have a strong feel for the
past eight having been at Belmont
Park to witness them all
19
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
There are myriad reasons as to
why these horses didnrsquot claim
racingrsquos most elusive prize but is
there a relationship between the
failed eight-pack and how that
might play into California Chromersquos
quest for racing immortality June 7
at Belmont
1997 Silver Charm
The Bob Baffert-trained gray was
as game as they come winning a
pair of street fights in the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness and arrived
at Belmont as the best horse in a
group that included his arch rival
Free House who was 3rd in the
Derby and 2nd in the Preakness
and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in
the Preakness
So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the
Triple Crown Sometimes good
horses just get outrun by good
horses That was the case with
Silver Charm Touch Gold
announced his presence in the
Preakness when he ran out of his
mind to be 4th after a ton of
trouble and followed through in the
Belmont He also got one of the
best rides yoursquoll ever see from
Chris McCarron who had him on
the lead early then backed off
tipped out on the far turn and
then swung him out wide in deep
stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot
see him Silver Charm just lost to a
better horse on the day and a
masterful ride It happens daily in
racing but unfortunately for him
it happened on the wrong day
1998 Real Quiet
Real Quiet a year later had
Baffert right back in the spotlight
―The Fish as he was known for
his slender physique had his own
arch rival in Victory Gallop whose
sustained stretch runs fell short
when 2nd in both the Derby and
Preakness Real Quiet was the
blueprint of a Derby winner a
tactical stalker who had the ability
to blow a race open off the far
turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent
Desormeaux tried to in the
Belmont when he assumed
command entering the stretch and
opened up a seemingly
insurmountable 4-length lead But
this time it was Gary Stevens who
had lost the Triple Crown in the
shadow of the wire with Silver
Charm taking dead aim with
20
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Victory Gallop The pair hit the line
together the photo was too close
to call Needless to say Real
Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down
Many have opined Desormeaux
moved too early and therersquos
possibly something to it but Real
Quietrsquos style was to do just that So
itrsquos not like he took him out of his
element And when you know you
have a dead one-run closer to
beat building a big lead isnrsquot the
worst idea in the world Victory
Gallop simply ran out of room in
Louisville and Baltimore but the
Belmont was a race he was built
for While deep closers donrsquot often
win the ―Test of the Champion
Victory Gallop was best-suited for
the big sweeping turns of Big
Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill
Desormeaux if you want (jockey
error will rear its head shortly) but
like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply
got run down by a better horse on
the day and quite possibly a better
horse in general
And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an
aside as good as Silver Charm and
Real Quiet were they were hardly
great horses Did you know Silver
Charm never won a G1 race in this
country not named the Kentucky
Derby or Preakness and counted
the Dubai World Cup as his only
other win in racingrsquos elite
company As for Real Quiet he ran
midway through his 4-year-old
season and retired with a 6-for-20
record He won three other races
aside from a MSW the Derby and
the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over
the next several paragraphs good
horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown
great horses do
1999 Charismatic
In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses
being beaten by better horses or
better performances but for
Charismatic in 1999 it was
something a bit different
Unlike the two Baffert runners
who entered the Belmont each
with five starts on the year this D
Wayne Lukas trainee had met the
starter a somewhat remarkable
nine times Charismatic also had
won the G2 Lexington two weeks
before the Derby meaning the
Belmont was his fourth start in
seven weeks Quite frankly it was
asking a lot for a horse that was
21
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
once entered for a $62500
claiming tag earlier in the year
Sadly Charismatic broke down in
deep stretch after relinquishing the
lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would
never race again Injuries and the
rigors of the Triple Crown reared
their ugly head here Lukas had no
idea what he had in early February
as he often likes to say when
retelling the Charismatic story so
you canrsquot fault him for the path he
took And after winning the
Lexingtonmdashand running very fast
when doing somdashthe Derby was a
no-brainer And when you win the
Derby you go on to the Preakness
and so on And Charismatic much
like Silver Charm and Real Quiet
was run down by a horse who
would go on to do great things
Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1
Travers later in the summer and be
a real monster at age 4 when
earning an Eclipse Award
2002 War Emblem
War Emblem had Baffert yet again
knocking on the door of racingrsquos
staunchest and most exclusive
club His case was precarious as
he entered the Belmont off a
surprising win in the Derby when
he walked on the lead and led a
merry-go-round finish over Proud
Citizen and Perfect Drift He
showed more mettle in the
Preakness but was all out to beat
the rank outsider Magic Weisner
the local hope at 45-1 The fact
that War Emblem was a somewhat
icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse
Belmont field gave sense of the
publicrsquos trepidation
As it happened War Emblem blew
the break became rank and never
really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th
and well behind improbable 70-1
winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to
dismiss the no-show because of
the brutal start the likelihood is
War Emblem just wasnrsquot good
enough He took advantage of
remarkable fortune in the Derby
pace and Preakness competition
2003 Funny Cide
The New York-bred gelding Funny
Cide no doubt rates one of the
better Triple Crown feel-good
stories in recent memory He upset
the Derby and then completely
blitzed his opposition in the
Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But
22
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
while everything went right in the
first two legs of the Triple Crown
little went right in the third
First off no one would argue that
Empire Maker the Juddmonte
blueblood was the most talented
3-year-old in the country that year
especially since he beat Funny Cide
when winning the G1 Wood
Memorial Unfortunately he battled
foot issues leading up to the
Derby still mustering a late-
running 2nd But Empire Maker
bypassed the Preakness got
healthy and entered the Belmont
on top of his game
Second heavy rains descended on
Long Island and the Belmont was
run over a real mess of a track
Funny Cide broke running was a
bit rank on the lead and was done
when the real running began while
Empire Maker was in high gear and
won with something to spare over
a game Ten Most Wanted who
would go on to win the Travers
The case of Funny Cide is a tricky
one because he warmed so many
hearts and became a national
sensation along the way with his
grass roots connections and
working-class hero persona And
as often is the case under
circumstances like his people want
to make a horse into something
they were not Funny Cide was a
very good horse but not a Hall of
Famer He happened to be great
for two weeks that encompassed
the Derby and the Preakness and
well a solid graded stakes
campaigner the rest of his career
He annexed the G3 Excelsior and
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-
year-old but thereafter won only
the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine
Funny Cide also was sired by
Distorted Humor so winning the 1
frac14-mile Derby was surprise
enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the
Belmont seemed virtually
impossible At the end of the day
Funny Cide was a much inferior
horse to Empire Maker and you
could argue he was a coin-flip
against Ten Most Wanted
2004 Smarty Jones
Just one year later another feel-
good story developed when Smarty
Jones blitzed through the Triple
Crown season and entered the
Belmont undefeated in eight
23
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
lifetime starts
The son of
Elusive Quality
was a bit like
Funny Cide in
that he had a
sprintermiler
pedigree
Smarty Jones
had faced one
of the most late-
developing Triple
Crown groups in
recent memory Names like
Borrego Purge Eddington and
Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish
their G1 form theyrsquod show later He
entered the Belmont as a
legitimate odds-on favorite off a
similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in
the Preakness
Even the biggest cynic on the
backstretch would have trouble
beating Smarty Jones in the
Belmont which is one of the
reasons why he went off a
warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse
field And much like Funny Cide a
year earlier not a lot went right for
Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit
for somewhat different reasons
First off he was pressed quite
surprisingly by Eddington who
was a stalkercloser down the
backstretch while the latter was 4-
wide Smarty Jones easily repelled
Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then
went up to put pressure on his
inside He swatted him away too
entering the far turn but then
Stewart Elliott decided it was time
to go asking Smarty Jones who
opened up a daylight lead on the
field off the turn By now we all
know the story as Birdstone
(pictured above) closed late and
denied yet another Triple Crown
that seemed a foregone
conclusion
24
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
So exactly what happened
Several things actually The early
pressure Smarty Jones faced
certainly didnrsquot help not to
mention he was by Elusive
Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll
Get Along meaning he already
was stretching his genetic rubber
band beyond thin But lastly the
inexperience of Elliott over the
wide expansive Belmont main
track has to be a big deciding
factor Itrsquos often said that the
Belmont is a weird race because
horses will never again be asked to
go 1 frac12 miles on the main track
And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also
correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be
asked to do it either Especially a
journeyman like Elliott who made
his name far away from Elmont
New York
He simply moved too early when
Smarty Jones opened up off the
turn Would a more patient ride
have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos
impossible to say but therersquos little
doubt nerves and the magnitude of
the moment caught up with Elliott
who failed to save anything for
deep stretch and was run down by
Birdstone at 36-1
Big Brown 2008
Big Brown brought the circus that
was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the
limelight Big Brown and Smarty
Jones had a lot of similarities both
were undefeated entering the
Belmont both dominated the first
two legs of the Triple Crown and
both had taken advantage of what
appeared at the time a weak
group of 3-year-olds Big Brown
defeated the ill-fated filly Eight
Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork
in the Derby then walloped Macho
Again and the New York-bred
Icabad Crane in the Preakness The
fact that Denis Of Cork was
second-choice in the Belmont at 7-
1 with no one else under 14-1
said as much about the lack of
25
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
talent in the field as it did about
Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow
What happened to Big Brown in
the Belmont is still up for debate
today but basically he didnrsquot get
away to a great beginning was
rank and steadied a few times
while chasing the pace of eventual
winner DarsquoTara swung out wide
went wider entering the far turn
and then was shockingly pulled
up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd
doesnrsquot begin to describe what
happened to Big Brown during his
Belmont run
What is clear is that Big Brown for
whatever reason didnrsquot have his
mind on running in the Belmont
Chalk it up to ―one of those days
if you want His patch-work foot
issues possibly were part of the
storyline too
For me personally the staunchest
advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot
win the Triple Crown great ones
do thinking therersquos a small part
that thinks this was a case of the
Racing Gods looking out for what
was best for the club and the
sport
Did Dutrow and his laundry list of
suspensions and violations belong
in the most hallowed club in all of
sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for
something thatrsquos not there but a
part of me believes it
Fitting the Crown
The reasons or lack thereof for
defeat are wide spread bad racing
luck poor judgment shaky
pedigrees rough trips injuries and
the unknown of an off-track all
potentially get in the way Wersquove
also seen better horses flexing
their muscles on the big day and
vanquishing those who might
simply have been second-best
Is there a correlation between all
the failures and California Chromersquos
quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just
keep coming back to what Irsquove said
all along ―Good horses donrsquot win
the Triple Crown great ones do
26
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
The last four Triple Crown winners
were Citation Secretariat Seattle
Slew and Affirmed nothing short
of legends of the American turf A
look back at the eight-pack
outlined in this article and for
countless different reasons itrsquos
pretty obvious none of them were
remotely close
to the last four
Triple Crown
champs
As for
California
Chrome what
we do know is
that hersquos by
an unknown
sire in Lucky
Pulpit and out of the Not For Love
mare Love The Chase ndash hardly
great bloodlines but at least
therersquos some distance in there You
canrsquot knock his jockey Victor
Espinoza as hersquos been one of the
best in the business for years and
was the pilot of War Emblem So
hersquos been down this road before
The competition Well it seems
marginal and therersquos little doubt
California Chrome is a deserving
favorite though not to the degree
of Smarty Jones and Big Brown
Horses like Wicked Strong and
Tonalist have talent and pedigree
and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far
behind in the Preakness
If I have a knock it would be his
schedule as the
Belmont will be
his 13th start
and he hasnrsquot
had a break
since his
career debut
April 26 2013
He now runs
for the third
time in five
weeks while
facing several Derby horses that
passed the Preakness
So is California Chrome that great
horse that will knock down the
door and end 36 years of misery
Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been
fooled before while witnessing first-
hand the near misses listed above
making the drive to Belmont quite
certain I would see history only to
turn around and head home with
mixed emotions ndash HPN
27
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Going wide like Rags to Riches
in 2007 (above) has been a
fair trade-off in Belmont trips
- By Jerry Shottenkirk
Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited
for a mile and one-half
Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes
consistently draws the fewest
entrants of the Triple Crown races
Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it
comes back to a search for the
perfect trip
California Chromes trips have been
SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness that some observers
and handicappers hold it against
him Irsquom in the camp that says if a
horse continues to do the same
thing over and over again itrsquos not
an accident Itrsquos the way he runs
Does California Chrome have
another PT in him Only time will
tell He does have the preferred
running style
Over the past 20 Belmonts speed
rarely has won At the same time
few horses have closed in the
stretch The way to win the final
jewel is to win it on that great
expanse known as the far turn
Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose
asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly
picked off opponents one at a time
weaving as he went and opened a
long lead in the stretch He made
up considerable ground got
29
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
through the traffic and forwarded
one of the best performances in
recent Belmont Stakes history But
the fact remains that he was in
front turning for home
Much depends on your particular
definition of a closer If in your
mind a closer is eighth 15 out of
it turning for home itrsquos probably
not going to happen In most
cases the Belmont is won prior to
the stretch run Afleet Alex was
ninth going into the far turn but
was in front coming out of it
There always are exceptions
Belmont talk begins with
Secretariat and horses like Risen
Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer
were dominant However we are
in a different era with different
results
A personal study of the past 20
years of the Belmont Stakes has
revealed these patterns
You donrsquot want to lead at the
start or shortly thereafter the
break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008
led from basically flagfall to
finish He led by three lengths
early and spent most of the
race four or five lengths
ahead He is the exception
Deep closers have about as
much success as front-
runners Rip-roaring closing
bids from 20 lengths out of it
just donrsquot happen in the
Belmont mainly due to the
slower pace and the distance
Jazil was far back in 2006
dropping a dozen lengths
back at one point But he did
his running on the far turn
was in front in the stretch and
rode the momentum to a 1
14-length win
No winning horse in the past
20 years has been worse than
fourth upon entering the
stretch It was Summer Bird
in 2009 that was fourth at the
furlong grounds and he
rallied for a 2 34-length win
The most dominant
performance during this
period came from Point Given
in a 12 14-length romp in
2001 Never more than two
lengths behind early Point
30
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue
when called upon and
grabbed the lead with a half-
mile to go He wasnrsquot in the
neighborhood of ldquotremendous
machinerdquo but he was in a
race by himself in the stretch
Going around seems to work
Union Rags won the 2012
edition with an inside run to
nip Paynter but the vast
majority of winning moves
have come from the outside
sometimes with awful trips It
has been proven in the
Belmont that risking a loss of
ground is better than risking
momentum After a mile or
so horses just canrsquot slow
down and then restart a rally
with any kind of effectiveness
The winning trip
Millions of race fans will be
watching Victor Espinoza map out
California Chromersquos quest for
racing immortality Judging by the
performances in his last four races
California Chrome has the
preferred running style to win the
Belmont Stakes
Whether his inner-pedigree
reaches up and grabs him by the
throat latch in stretch thatrsquos
anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can
make great horses but great
horses can also make pedigrees
The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky
Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25
minutes
Handicappers want to be right and
the percentages say therersquos a
better chance for California
Chromersquos failure than
success The proof is in
the numbers No Triple
Crown since Affirmed in
1978
The safe pick is to go
against However safe
picks go against our inner
handicapper
31
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Espinoza will have the option to be
anywhere he wants California
Chrome has the tactical speed to
adjust He could probably send and
be well in front during the early
going but the percentages indicate
hersquod be better off in a tracking
position Why mess up a good
thing That has been the modus
operandi in the first two legs of the
Triple Crown and any of several
horses could fall in and take on the
pacesetting chores
Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or
possibly Commissioner California
Chrome has the opportunity to get
the trip Espinoza wants
Will California Chrome get the Point
Given trip with an effortless
acceleration to scintillating victory
The guess here is no
Looking at his running style
Chrome has the opportunity for an
Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st
held on in 2003) Commendable
(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12
lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch
(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or
Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by
2 in 1994)
Three of the four listed there were
trained by D Wayne Lukas
Chrome is trained by Art Sherman
but look for a Lukas trip and a trek
to that place that is just a few
rungs higher than most - HPN
No Excuses for the Right One
Perhaps no Belmont winner
had more roadblocks than the
filly Rags to Riches in 2007
Some say being a filly was the
obvious strike against her
And it got worse once they
rang the bell She stumbled
out of the gate and went wide
into the first turn and was in
the five-path through much of
her run She engaged the
leader the mighty Curlin at
the quarter pole and was
head and head with him the
rest of the way and won by
that margin Despite the bad
journey she looked him in
the eye and beat him
ndash Jerry Shottenkirk
32
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Week 23 June 6 2014
By Jeremy Plonk
Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene
Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes
This weekrsquos fearless forecast
More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo
But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned
We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 11 official Belmont entrants
Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
SPEED Samraat PRESS
California Chrome General a Rod
Tonalist MIDPACK
Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER
Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin
Matuszak Commanding Curve
34
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Not On My Tickets
MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could
MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action
at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse
Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo
35
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)
But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since
Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade
Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since
Empire Maker-Funny Cide
Year Horse Wood Bel
bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th
TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3
36
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory
Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk
Exotics Inclusions
RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn
37
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd
COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors
Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont
Year Horse Odds Finish
bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th
The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late
38
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas
While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals
Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had
traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California
Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway
on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise
Win Contenders
To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race
39
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged
WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse
who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone
MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he
40
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont
Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April
Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected
CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses
California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history
At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break
But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the
41
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California
Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections
WIN MEDAL COUNT
PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG
For Jeremyrsquos wagering
strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ
42
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK
By Ed DeRosa
Because the racing is so great at Belmont
throughout the year we have a good
sample size of quality races to dissect
Looking at allowance and stakes races only
from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up
we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41
turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our
database
Looking at all 266 of these higher-class
races doesnrsquot yield many surprises
Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an
Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the
takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking
the races out by distance and surface helps
more though
When it comes to talking
great racing in New
York Belmont Park is
generally overshadowed
by its Upstate cousin in
the New York Racing
Association family
Saratoga Race Course
but it is absolutely some
of the best day-in-day-
out racing the country
has to offer with none
better than the Belmont
Stakes card on June 7
Wersquoll discuss some of
that daily racing later
but with nearly $3-
million in guaranteed
multi-race wagering
pools and more than
$100-million in handle
expected on the day we
want to make sure
yoursquore ready and ALL-
WAYS software from
Brisnetcom can help
44
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
In dirt sprints at these levels (we
define sprint as any distance up
tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the
top last-out Brisnetcom Speed
Rating is a huge factor with an
Impact Value of 236 and an ROI
of +13 Prime Power is especially
effective with these variables as
well with the top figure netting a
273 Impact Value and a +29
ROI
Dirt routes are
trickier as the
best last-out
Speed Rating
does OK from a
predictive
standpoint with a
170 Impact
Value but the
ROI is -39
However
expanding your handicapping to
the horse with the two best Speed
Ratings from its last three starts
ups the Impact Value slightly to
172 and nets a +5 ROI
Turf sprints rely less on speed and
more on surface performance The
best last-out Speed Rating has an
OK Impact Value of 153 but the
ROI is -36 However looking at
the best recent performance ON
TURF has an impact value of 170
and ROI of +4
Turf routes are similar with the
best last-out Speed Rating having
an Impact Value of 139 and
straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing
in on recent turf success though
has an Impact Value of 164 and a
+2 ROI
This seems to
support somewhat
the clicheacute that
speed figures
matter less on turf
I wouldnrsquot go so far
as to say they donrsquot
matter but theyrsquore
clearly overvalued
Look for strong turf
form when playing turf races at
Belmont
Looking at the last 13 fast-track
Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos
easy to see the role pace plays in
the race because the most
powerful indicators of success are
the E1 Pace Rating and the
relationship between a horsersquos
typical E1 pace rating and its final-
This seems to
support some-
what the clicheacute
that speed figures
matter less on
turf
45
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
fraction rating (this is a calculation
the ALL-WAYS software performs
and is not available in standard
Past Performances)
Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually
good enough to win the Belmont
Stakes but rather a sustained run
from the gate carried
all 12 furlongs is
preferred
When playing
Belmont generally
last-out speed is still
very much king in dirt
sprints and less so in
routes but still
strong
The turf races donrsquot
favor turf form as
much overall but this
makes sense ndash because among all
races yoursquore more likely to get
horses trying turf for the first time
or coming from an Aqueduct
meeting with less turf (whereas the
allowance and especially stakes
types typically are more proven
over turf)
All these good horses start
somewhere and Belmont has its
share of loaded maiden racesmdash
even if that
aforementioned
cousin Upstate gets
most of the
attention with its
two-year-old racing
In looking at maiden
races with first-time
starters in them the
horsemen
associated with
starters is a bigger
angle in these types
of races than any other Ie
jockey and trainer matter more in
maiden races at Belmont than any
other classmdashand even more so on
turf ndash HPN
hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip
46
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career
By Ken Warkentin
If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic
Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism
Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi
Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man
Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track
The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins
Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost
15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345
Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to
48
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482
Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151
Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy
Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone
Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of
Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold
The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle
Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow
The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN
49
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom
Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday
June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as
they host a Night School Tour fan
education experience during the
prestigious Pepsi North America
Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of
harness racing all year
Both will lend their extensive
knowledge throughout the day to
help fans learn the nuances of the
game formulate wagering
strategies as well as give how-to
seminars ranging from how to read
past performance lines to
understanding how a race may
unfold
The featured 31st North America
Cup with a purse of $1 million
will bring together the best 3-year-
old pacers in North America and
rates as one of harness racingrsquos
premier events while highlighting
a stakes-filled card that will be
long on depth and talent
Several of North Americarsquos top
3-year-old pacers are scheduled
to compete including early North
America Cup favorite Hes
Watching who won a division of
the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes
May 31 at Mohawk to move his
lifetime record to 9-for-10
-more-
50
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
JK Endofanera and Always B
Miki won the other two
divisions and also rate major
contenders Doo Wop
Hanover and Western
Vintage (pictured right) the
1-2 finishers in the New
Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at
Meadowlands are also
expected to compete as well
as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the
Meadowlands All told 10 will start
with the final field to be
determined by the eliminations to
be held at Mohawk June 7
The North America Cup is one of
several lucrative stakes on the
card which will draw some of the
top drivers in the sport to Mohawk
including the likes of Brian Sears
Corey Callahan John Campbell and
Tim Tetrick among others
The $400000 Fan Hanover the
sister race to the North America
Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly
pacers around while the $250000
Roses are Red will bring together
some of the best filly and mare
pacers while the $225000
Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-
old trotters in action
Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand
from 4 pm until the end of the
Mohawk card to continue a
successful run of fan education
events on the Night School Tour
that have included stops at the
Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup
et al in recent seasons
CLICK FOR PREVIEW
51
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Whorsquos Your
Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock
As a member of the Racing Aces
handicapping team Irsquom asked to
travel around the country sharing
handicapping techniques and
advice at seminars Prior to
traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap
the card for the day of races and
nothing makes my heart sink like
seeing a maiden claiming race filled
with first-time starters While Irsquom
tempted to turn the page to the
next race I instead turn to one of
my favorite pieces of information ndash
pedigrees
When is the last time you walked
up to a slot machine at a casino
and had it give you insight into its
past performances pedigree and
other vital information about how it
might perform before you place
your bet Betting on horses gives
us the opportunity to do detective
work and reap big rewards
While there always are exceptions
to every rule ndash modestly bred
California Chromersquos destruction of
the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
fields against some blue-bloods
comes to mind ndash handicapping is
about improving your odds by
analyzing information
When looking at a field of first-time
starters I check out the trainer
jockey connections look at the
horsesrsquo recent works and then dig
into the pedigrees
If you are new to Quarter Horse
racing and donrsquot recognize
prominent names of the sires
where can you quickly find
52
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
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The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
information to help you make some
intelligent choices
The American Quarter Horse
Association is the equivalent to the
Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey
Club AQHA keeps records for
every official Quarter Horse race as
well as registration records on all
American Quarter Horses The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free information
at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot
need a password or sign-up to gain
access to long lists of data
Near the top of the AQHA Racing
home page is a button that says
ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give
you access to 20 free lists that are
updated regularly with the latest
racing statistics
While you can usually track
Thoroughbred stud fees as a
measure ofa stallionrsquos success
many American Quarter Horse
stallions are syndicated when they
head to the breeding farm and
their stud fees are traded through
private treaties with the
syndication members Therefore
itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter
Horsersquos public demand based off of
the highest stud fees
Researching the leading stallions
lists will help you pick out top
performing stallions and hopefully
you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos
prodigy before the other bettors
become wise to his runners You
can even research past years to
look for trends
As of May 19 PYC Paint Your
Wagon is the leading sire of 2-
year-old winners The 11-year-old
stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds
in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012
foal crop had 179 foals Last year
PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the
year on top of the list too In
2013 the stallion had 46 winners
from 104 starts
As with any statistics digging
deeper can alert you to other
potential nuggets of useful
information
In 2013 freshman sire Foose
landed at the No 2 spot on the
leading sire of 2-year-old winners
list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds
one less than PYC Paint Your
Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop
53
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
had 50 less foals compared to PYC
Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters
had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise
handicapper that picked up early
on this hot freshman sirersquos runners
making their way to the starting
gate for the first time could cash in
at the window
Some tracks begin running 2-year-
olds earlier in the year such as
Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras
Futurity which had trials in
February By the end of May and
the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-
year-olds are racing across the
country and most are setting their
sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All
American Futurity which is run on
Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of
the different racing calendars
because the leaders lists might
show an early bias to certain
regions and stallions Also keep an
eye on the freshmen sires because
a hotshot like Foose can pop up
and reward those that are paying
attention to the trends
AQHA breaks down the numbers in
several different ways You can see
leading sire information that
includes all of the sirersquos runners
and 2-year-old specific stats For
example you can see top stallions
for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old
money earners and 2-year-old
graded stakes winners Depending
on the type of race I am
handicapping I will look at the
different charts While
handicapping a maiden claiming
race Irsquom more interested in the
sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos
ability with his runners in a stakes
race An example would be Stel
Corona who sired Old Girl the
winner of the May 18 Kindergarten
Futurity at Los Alamitos
Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the
2-year-old money earners list with
the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704
Kindergarten payday but the
stallion is ranked 28th on the list of
2-year-old winners with four
winners from 15 starts
Utilizing the free information
available on Quarter Horse stallions
will hopefully have you sprinting to
the window to cash your winning
tickets
54
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
The following are examples of the statistical information available at
wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest
foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given
that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners
compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have
higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might
not land them at the top of the leader board
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24
2 Ivory James 177 85 18
3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16
4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14
5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13
Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)
Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings
1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763
2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526
3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215
4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304
5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449
Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces
Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing
55
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD
BY GULFSTREAM
By Brian W Spencer
orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend
crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million
The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had
the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza
Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket
Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic
H
56
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday
Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers
The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate
would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times
It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from
Mondays expected record pool
While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a
massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation
Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers
hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were
not being used by the host trackhellip
57
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out
Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover
This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the
wager in the first place
What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players
Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your
definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream
Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules
This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN
There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im
not immune hellip
58
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700
SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We advance up the class ladder this
month from the maiden ranks to the
bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the
ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By
definition these horses have only 1 win
lifetime at most and these races ndash when
offered for a low claiming tag ndash often
gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as
they struggle to break through again and
find the right bunch
Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in
which 1 or a few of the runners have
decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms
of class than the others When you do
give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all
about finding the easiest and right bunch
when competing at this lower level
Also consider fitness and horses deeper
into their form cycles When none of the
runners are particularly brilliant on talent
fitness can be what makes the difference
late in the race -- even among horses who
havenrsquot shown great desire to win
When horses drop in class from a higher
claiming category (open non-winners of 3
lifetime etc) you should consider it a
class drop even if the claiming price of the
previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L
claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart
LINK courtesy Equibase
60
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
62
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F
5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F
6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F
7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F
Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F
8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F
9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F
12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F
64
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T
15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F
18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F
21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F
22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F
65
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F
26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T
27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F
28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F
29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F
Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on
July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian
Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom
SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING
GUIDES ON THE HORIZON
June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks
June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden
rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll
rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch
rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse
rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)
rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)
rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)
rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)
rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)
Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score
WOODBINE OAKS
June 15 2014
JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH
68
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott
I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story
It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo
gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes
Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question
The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later
69
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
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