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Jeff Donnelly
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Hurricane Risk in Southeastern MA
Conditions for genesis
• Warm tropical waters > 26oC, 80oF
• Minimal Wind Shear Aloft
• Prior disturbance
• Coriolis Deflection
What is a tropical cyclone?
Where do they occur?
Intensity
Tropical cyclones come in different sizes
Recent Hurricane Trends
What Might the Future Hold?
N. Atl. Tropical Cyclones
N. Atl. Tropical SST
N. Hem. Mean Temp
From
Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012
Nature Climate Change
What Might the Future Hold?
Frequency of hurricanes
may increase (particularly
intense storms)
“Best Case”
“Worst Case”
Modern
N. Atl. Tropical Cyclones
N. Atl. Tropical SST
N. Hem. Mean Temp
Using IPCC AR4 models
What Might the Future Hold?
From Emanuel, 2013 PNAS
Using IPCC AR5 models
Frequency of hurricanes
may increase (particularly
intense storms)
Rate of sea-level rise will continue to accelerate
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Glo
ba
l S
ea
Le
ve
l (c
m)
Year CE
IPC
C A
R4
Rahm
sto
rf 2
007
Hort
on e
t al. 2
008
Grinste
d e
t al. 2
009
Verm
eer
and R
ahm
sto
rf 2
009
Jevre
jeva e
t al. 2
010
RC
P 8
.5
RC
P 4
.5
RC
P 2
.6
Global Sea Level
Nat
. C
lim
ate
Ass
ess.
20
14
IPCC AR5
Coastal Population Growth
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Po
pu
lati
on
Year CE
Barnstable County Population 1900-2010
Coastal Population Growth
Falmouth 1886 Falmouth 2015
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
From Pielke et al., 2008
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns
of 2
00
5 U
SD
)
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
But what if these storms were to strike today?
From Pielke et al., 2008
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns
of 2
00
5 U
SD
)
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
Damage accounting for increased wealth and population
From Pielke et al., 2008
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns
of 2
00
5 U
SD
)
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
Damage accounting for increased wealth and population
From Pielke et al., 2008
19
00
Ga
lve
sto
n
19
15
Ga
lve
sto
n
19
26
Mia
mi
19
92
An
dre
w
19
38
Ne
w E
ng
lan
d
20
04
se
as
on
2005 s
easo
n
Sa
nd
y
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns
of 2
00
5 U
SD
)
SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above astronomical tide)
Monthly highest water Woods Hole tide gauge (above MHW)
SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above MHW)
Boldt et al. (2010)
0
1
2
3
4
1869
1815
1635
me
ters
1727
1804
20
00
19
40
1945
19
50
19
55
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
1938
1944
1954
(Carol)
1960 (Donna) 1991 (Bob)
Year
Irene
Sandy
Hypothetical SE New England Sandy landfall
0
5
10
15
fee
t
Woods Hole, MA
Instrumental record of coastal Inundation
Sea Level Histories
Modeling future sea level changes
From Kopp et al. submitted
1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red = cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red = cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
John Winthrop (Governor of Massachusetts Bay Colony) “The tide rose at Narragansett fourteen feet higher than ordinary, and drowned eight Indians flying from their wigwams”
William Bradford (Governor of Plymouth Colony) “…a mighty storm of wind and rain as none living in these parts, either English or Indians ever saw” “It caused the sea to swell to the south wind of this place above 20 foot right up and down, and made many of the Indians to climb into trees for their safety” “It blew down many hundred thousands of trees, turning up the stronger by the roots and breaking the higher pine trees off in the middle”
Storm surge from the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
Storm surge from the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red = cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
Hurricane Bob (1991) Storm Surge
Falmouth
What if the Hurricane of 1635 Struck Again?
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0:00:00 1:12:00 2:24:00 3:36:00 4:48:00 6:00:00 7:12:00 8:24:00 9:36:00 10:48:00 12:00:00 13:12:00 14:24:00
Wate
r L
ev
el re
lati
ve t
o M
SL
(fe
et)
Time
Hydrograph for 1635 like storm
Falmouth surge
Bourne surge
What if the Hurricane of 1635 Struck Again?
Falmouth
What if the Hurricane of 1815 Struck Again?
Falmouth
What if the Hurricane of 1815 Struck Again?
Providence in 1815
Falmouth
What if the Hurricane of 1815 Struck Again?
Providence in 1815
Storm tide came within 15 inches of breaching isthmus
where the canal is now (was over 20 feet above sea level)
Falmouth
What if the Hurricane of 1938 Struck Again?
Falmouth
What if Hurricane Bob Struck Again?
High-Resolution Sediment Records
High-Resolution Sediment Records
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Mattapoisett Marsh
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Thatchpoint Bluehole
Climate Forcing
Climate Forcing
Climate Forcing
Past intervals of heightened hurricane activity appear
to be associated with warm sea surface temperatures
Increased hurricane activity along the eastern US
seaboard is possible (perhaps even likely) in the
coming decades
The impacts of future hurricane activity will be
greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise
and coastal population growth, regardless of whether
or not we experience significant increases in
hurricane landfalls
Summary
For more info see:
www.whoi.edu/science/GG/coastal/
Thank you!
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