View
4
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
IIASA/GLOBIOM: An integrative approach to foresight
Petr Havlík
Foresight4Food International WorkshopMontpellier, May 22-24, 2018
IIASA’s contribution to integrated scenarios
Integration across sectors
Energy:MESSAGE
POLESWITCH
Agricultural sector model
AgMIP, OECD, FAO
Forest sector model
EC, US EPA, Sweden
GHG emissions
EC, WB, US EPA, Brazil, Congo Basin…
Other environmental aspects
Everywhere…
GLOBIOM
Earth System Model: IPSL-CM5
Food availability compared to Reference by 2050
Spatial integration: From global to local and backStakeholder process
Regional scenariosModel improvement
Output/Impact?
*Source: http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/
Accumulated Deforestation in Legal Amazon
Spatial integration: From global to local and back
Integration across time scales
Standard GLOBIOM: 10 year time steps
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2100
Validation periodPolicy Impact Assessment
Long-Term Outlook
Climate stabilization pathways
Integration across time scales
Annualized version of
GLOBIOM
For extreme weather
events analysis
Production decisions
based on price and
yield expectations
Wheat area in Europe
Source: Boere et al., forthcoming
GLOBIOM-X
Recommended