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IMPACT
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 1
Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
UniBwM Breach Modelling
Dr.-Ing. Karl Broich
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 2
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Content
• Breach Model DEICH_P• Test cases
- Field Test cases - Laboratory Test cases
• Breach Analysis - Monte Carlo Analysis using MCAT
- Tous Test case
• Breach Location - Identifying Breach Locations
- Breach analysis a long embankment dam line
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 3
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Model DEICH_P
DEICH_P : a Dam Erosion Model with Initial Breach
Characteristic using a Parametrical approach
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 4
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Model DEICH_P
Algorithm
Q from broadcrested weir formula
Sediment transport
Breach formation
H from QH-relation
Advance in time
Iteration
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 5
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Model DEICH_P
Process Structure
DEICH_P
MCAT
FLOODSIM
Monte Carlo Analysis Tool
2d-numerical SWE-solver
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 6
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Model DEICH_P
Data Structure
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 7
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Model DEICH_P
Erosion modes
• mode 1 : non cohesive without core• mode 2 : non cohesive with core• mode 3 : cohesive with discrete erosion
- head cut - approach- “Weißmann” - approach
• mode 4 : cohesive with continuous erosion
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 8
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Model DEICH_P
Initial breach modes
• mode 1 : breach notch• mode 2 : piping
Coverage resistance
According to CIRIA-experiments
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 9
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Model DEICH_P
Breach Formation
a. Br each for m at ion par al lel to dam c r est
b. Br each for m at ion wi th r ot at ion abou t ds dam foo t
c . Br each fo r m at ion par al lel to ds dam face
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 10
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Model DEICH_P
Breach Formation without core
Dam foot, Upstream
Dam crest
H0
Datum
l1
Hs
Hu 0
Hd
HK
1
mo
1
mu
Dam foot, Downstream
hw0
b K
l0zs
zb
b1/ 2
b0/ 2
Ab/ 2
As/ 2
/ 2
1
mb
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 11
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Model DEICH_P
Breach Formation with core
Dam foot, Upstream
Dam crest
H0
Datum
Core
de lK
wow e0
wuw
l0
Hs HK0 Hu0 Hd
HK
e1 d11 1
1
1
mo m u
mKu
mKo Dam foot,
Downstream
hw0
t = t1
t = t2
t = t3
a. Core sealing
b. Surface sealing
Dam core
Dam material
Impermeable ground
Alluvial
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 12
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Field Test Case 1
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 13
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Field Test Case 2
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 14
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Field Test Case 3
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 15
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Field Test Case 4
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 16
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Field Test Case 5
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 17
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 2
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 18
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 4
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 19
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 5
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 20
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 6
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 21
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 7
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 22
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 9
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 23
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 10
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 24
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 11
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 25
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 12
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 26
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 13
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 27
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 14
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 28
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 15
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 29
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 16
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 30
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Test cases
Laboratory Test Case 17
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 31
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Analysis
Monte Carlo Analysis using MCAT
MCAT-software of the Civil and Environmental Engineering Department Imperial College of Science Technology and Medicine London.
The core of the toolbox is based on the concept of Regional Sensitivity
Analysis (RSA, Spear and Hornberger, 1980; Hornberger and Spear, 1981), and its extension to the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique developed at Lancaster University by Beven and coworkers (Beven and Binley, 1992; Freer et al., 1996). In GLUE no single optimum parameter set is identified, rather a set of behavioural models are selected where each model has a certain likelihood (pseudo probability) of being the correct representation of the system. This method recognises that it is not possible to identify a single best model in the face of model/data error.
MCAT is implemented for MATLAB.
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 32
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Analysis
Tous Test case : Given data
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 33
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Analysis
Tous Test case : Sample rate
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 34
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Analysis
Tous Test case : Procedure
Fix Model Parameters using GLUE
MC-Variation on Input Parameters
If calibration data is given:
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 35
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Analysis
Tous Test case : Fixing
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 36
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Analysis
Tous Test case : Variation Erosion Mode 1
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 37
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Analysis
Tous Test case : Variation Erosion Mode 2
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 38
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
All upper-mid-lower resultsComparison of Tous Breach Modelling Data
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000
Time(s)
Ou
tflo
w(m
^3
/s)
Given_OutflowCemagref_UpperCemagref_MeanCemagref_LowerDeich_P_UpperDeich_P_MeanDeich_P_LowerHR_UpperHR_MeanHR_Lower
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 39
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Location
Case study areas
MangfallIller
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 40
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Location
Identifying Breach Locations : Test case Iller River
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 41
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Location
Breach Analysis a long embankment dam line
DEICH_PFLOODSIM
Module in 2d-numerical SWE-solver
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 42
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Location
Breach Analysis a long embankment dam line
Calculation a long lines(multiple breach locations)
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 43
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Location
Calculation a long lines(multiple breach locations)
Mangfall River – an example
Breach Analysis a long embankment dam line
5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 44
IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Breach Location
Breach Risk Analysis for Levees – a proposal
P ~ 1/
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