Impact of changes in Blue Book and Pink Books 2013 Andrew Walton, Phillip Davies, Marilyn Thomas 27...

Impact of changes in Blue Book and Pink Books 2013

Andrew Walton, Phillip Davies, Marilyn Thomas

27 June 2013

Summary

• Introduction• Main changes to methods• Impact on GDP• Expenditure components• Sector and Financial Accounts• Balance of Payments

Introduction

• Published today• QNA• UKEA• Quarterly BoP• Slimline Business Investment• Several supporting articles

• Tomorrow• Index of Services• Productivity

Introduction

• 31 July• Blue Book• Pink Book• Supply and Use Tables• Full Business Investment• BoP geography

Changes in Blue Book 2013

• Reference year 2010• Quality improvements to Supply and Use

Tables• Private Non-Financial Corporation’s

(PNFC’s) profits• Rental estimates, and• Imputed rental• Gross Operating Surplus (GoS) for own

account software• Investment in artistic originals

Changes in Blue Book 2013

• Alignment of the National Accounts with Public Sector Finances

• Measurement of bonds liabilities, and• Measurement of UK Private Non-Financial

Corporations’ (PNFCs) overseas deposits and loans

• Gross Fixed Capital Formation, and• Changes in inventories systems• Improved estimation of some industries• Seasonal adjustment of construction output

Impact on GDP - nominal

Impact on GDP - nominal

• Levels raised by a little over 1% on average by methods changes• This amounts to £20.8 billion in 2012

• Switch between 2008 and 2009 – new quarterly profits• 2008 growth revised up 0.4 pp• 2009 growth revised down 0.4 pp

Impact on GDP – real

Impact on GDP – real

• Average growth since 1997 revised down by 0.1% a year

• Bigger changes in individual years• 2001 and 2009 down• 2004 and 2005 up

• GFCF is biggest impact• But profile of HMRC profits also

important in 2008 and 2009

Impact on real GDP – downturn

• Peak to trough is now 7.2%• Previously published as 6.4%, 7.1% and

6.3%

• Duration of downturn is now 5-6 quarters• Initially 6 quarters, revised to 5 quarters

in BB2011• Q2 and Q3 2009 flat (actually down £16

mn)

Impact on real GDP – downturn

Impact on real GDP – recovery

• 46% of loss in output during recession has been recovered

• Previously estimated as 59%• Revision largely due to increased ‘peak to

trough’• But slight downward revision to path of recovery

(3.5% above trough revised from 3.9%)

• No longer two consecutives quarters of negative growth in 2011/12 (to 1 dp)

• Q1 2012 revised from -0.1% to zero (a fall of £250mn to a fall of £26mn)

Impact on real GDP – recovery

Household expenditure

• Separate article published today• Number of improved methods and data

sources• Imputed rental (+£30 bn in 2011)• Repairs and maintenance (-£13bn)• Supply and use balancing (+£3bn)• Financial services (-£3bn)• Internet subscriptions (-£1bn)• Smuggling (+ less than half a billion)

• Total revision in 2011 is +£17bn

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

• Key improvements to deflation and seasonal adjustment

• improved construction of the asset, sector and industry series:

• asset, industry and sector series constructed directly

• improved deflation and chain linking methodology: • at more detailed asset, sector and industry level

• full set of Producer Price Indices (PPI) deflators used

• Business Spending on Capital Items Survey is now used, for weights

• improved seasonal adjustment: • seasonal adjustment on acquisitions and disposals

separately

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

• Artistic originals (+£2bn in 2012)

• Own account software mark-up (+£2bn)

• Overall impact• Growth revised from +1.5% to +0.5% in

2012• Not a consistent pattern but reduces

growth on average

Change in Inventories

• More detailed chain linking and seasonal adjustment• Acquisitions and disposals• Lower level industry and asset

• New deflators still being quality assured

Sector and Financial Accounts

• Financial Account impacted by methods improvements

• Alignment with Public Sector Finances• Bonds• PNFCs overseas loans and deposits

• Further details in articles

• Saving Ratio• 4.2% in latest quarter, lowest quarterly saving ratio since

2009q1 (3.4%)

• 6.7% in 2012 and 2011

• Real household disposable income (RHDI) • Fall of 1.7% in latest quarter, largest fall since 1990 q2 (1.7%)

• Rise of 1.4% in 2012 (Fell 1.2% in 2011)

Any Questions?

Sector & Financial Accounts

2013 Q1

Phillip Davies

Summary

• Financial Account methods changes• Sector Financial Accounts Key Indicators• Links to Methods Papers & Publications (to

follow!)

Financial Account

• Methodological Changeso Bondso Overseas deposits and loanso Public Sector Finance alignment

Bonds

ONS undertook a review of the Bonds liability methodology which recommended:• Converting bond liabilities estimates from nominal to market values,

using a weighted index of bond prices, so that they move into line with international (SNA2003/ESA 95) requirements

• Using aggregate data from the Bank of England Balance Sheet Survey of Banks and Building Societies to measure MFIs bond liabilities

• Improving the processing and sectorising of data on quoted UK bonds collected from the London Stock Exchange

• Using data from the London Stock Exchange as a source for measuring the bond liabilities of insurance companies and pension funds

• Treating the Rest of the World bond assets as the residual difference between total bond liabilities and assets, due to a lack of data coverage for the sector

In addition to these actions, the bond review recommended a change in the way bond estimates are presented in the financial account

• Now presented in a combined F.3325-6

Bonds continued

• 2003 onwards but presentation back to 1997• Financial account (flows) and balance sheet

(levels)• Impacted PNFCs bond liabilities

Old New

Overseas deposits and loans

• Changes to estimates of UK deposits with and loans from overseas banks

• Previously overstating overseas deposits for PNFCs and understating for OFIs

• Split moved from 80% PNFCs & 10% OFI to growth in line with the sectors UK bank deposits and loans

• Affects F.229 & F.419 across all sectors• 2003 onwards• Impacts mainly to liabilities of PNFCs & OFIs• Financial account and balance sheet

SFA Key Indicators

• Saving Ratio4.2% in latest quarter

Lowest quarterly saving ratio since 2009q1 (3.4%)

6.7% in 2012 and 2011

• Real household disposable income (RHDI) Fall of 1.7% in latest quarter

Largest fall since 1990 q2 (1.7%)

Rise of 1.4% in 2012 (Fell 1.2% in 2011)

Publications & Articles

• Bonds• Overseas deposits and loans• PSH

Further details?

• Bonds & Overseas deposits:

Harry Duff harry.duff@ons.gsi.gov.uk• Public Sector

David Mathewson david.mathewson@ons.gsi.gov.uk

• UKEA

Phillip Davies or Michael Rizzo phillip.davies@ons.gsi.gov.uk michael.rizzo@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Balance of Payments

• Also impacted by changes to Financial Account• Improvements to debt securities

(bonds) liabilities• Improvements to PNFCs overseas

loans and deposits (and OFIs overseas loans and deposits)

• Further details in articles

Questions?