View
7
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
0
Benedict Bingham
IMF Senior Resident Representative
Indonesia: Sustaining Inclusive Growth
“The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.”
Forum for Development Analysis Jakarta, 23 November 2012
1
Outline
Impressive macroeconomic performance
Disconnect with social indicators?
Productivity challenge
Economic development since Reformasi impressive….
2 Source: IMF WEO, Oct 2012
Indonesia’s performance amongst the best in Asia and G20 EM, especially during GFC….
3 Source: IMF WEO, Oct 2012
2003 - 2007 2007 - 2011
Employment and productivity numbers look solid….
4
Indonesia: Growth, Employment, and Productivity
Inclusiveness indicators remain weak though…
5
Gini coefficient rising (and understated?)
Almost two thirds of labor force is without a formal sector job
Just under half the population still living on less than $2/day
Underperformance of non-commodity exports a factor?
6
ASEAN 5 and China: Labor Pool and Non-Commodity Exports
Sectoral productivity trends a concern?
Indonesia: Productivity Growth by Sector (3 year moving average)
7
8
Employment, productivity, value added/employee
How productivity challenge met important…
Policy Challenges for inclusive growth
9
Infrastructure
Formalizing Activity to Foster “Missing Middle”
Regulatory Environment
Labor Market
10
The Minimum Wage Dilemma
Labor market policy is a challenge
Minimum wages
Non compliance rate has increased from
20% in 1999 to 40% in 2007
Severance pay
Two thirds of terminated employees do
not received severance pay
Most firms non compliant
World Bank Job Report Findings (2010):
Thank you
Recommended