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IngenuityIngenuity TheoryTheory
Can Humankind Createa Sustainable Civilization?
Are we creating a world Are we creating a world that’s too complex to manage?that’s too complex to manage?
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Do the “experts” really knowDo the “experts” really knowwhat’s going on?what’s going on?
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Are we really as smart asAre we really as smart aswe think we are?we think we are?
Are we really as smart asAre we really as smart aswe think we are?we think we are?
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Can we solve the problems Can we solve the problems of the future?of the future?
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
War in the Persian GulfWar in the Persian Gulf
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Blackouts in North America and EuropeBlackouts in North America and Europe
Deadly heat waves in Europe and IndiaDeadly heat waves in Europe and India
Millions affected by AIDS in AfricaMillions affected by AIDS in Africa
The lightening spread of SARSThe lightening spread of SARS
Suicide attacks in the Middle EastSuicide attacks in the Middle East
Is there something new here?
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Are the problems we’re Are the problems we’re confronting becoming harder?confronting becoming harder?
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Two Questions
If so, can we solve them?If so, can we solve them?
Most definitely
Too often not
H.G. Wells
““Hard imaginative thinking has Hard imaginative thinking has not increased so as to keep pace not increased so as to keep pace with the expansion and with the expansion and complications of human societies complications of human societies and organizations.” This is “the and organizations.” This is “the darkest shadow upon the hopes darkest shadow upon the hopes of mankind.”of mankind.”
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Sets of instructions that tell Sets of instructions that tell us how to arrange the us how to arrange the constituent parts of our constituent parts of our physical and social worlds in physical and social worlds in ways that help us achieve ways that help us achieve our goals.our goals.
Ingenuity
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Economic paradigm
Human beings are:Human beings are:““Rational ConsumersRational Consumers”
Key concepts:Key concepts:Consumption/production;Consumption/production;Investment/savingInvestment/saving
Factors of production (or system inputs):Factors of production (or system inputs):Capital and labor Capital and labor Sometimes land and ideasSometimes land and ideas
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Ingenuity paradigm
Human beings are:Human beings are:““Pragmatic Problem-Solvers”Pragmatic Problem-Solvers”
Key concepts:Key concepts:Ingenuity requirement and supplyIngenuity requirement and supply
Factors of problem-solvingFactors of problem-solvingor system inputs:or system inputs:Matter, energy (work), and ingenuityMatter, energy (work), and ingenuity
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Human beings use ingenuity ingenuity
To guide the application of energy energy
To arrange the matter matter around them(including materials and people)
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
In ways that they hope will solvetheir problems
Two types of ingenuity
SocialSocialTechnicalTechnical
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Is our requirement Is our requirement for ingenuity rising?for ingenuity rising?
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Greater ComplexityGreater Complexity through through structural deepeningstructural deepening(adding sub-systems and internal links)(adding sub-systems and internal links)
A Simple NetworkA Simple Network
Greater ComplexityGreater Complexityby adding nodes and linksby adding nodes and links
Greater VelocityGreater VelocityBecause of a higher rate of transferBecause of a higher rate of transfer
Greater VelocityGreater VelocityBecause of a higher rate of transferBecause of a higher rate of transfer
Greater VelocityGreater VelocityBecause of a higher rate of transferBecause of a higher rate of transfer
Greater VelocityGreater VelocityBecause of a higher rate of transferBecause of a higher rate of transfer
Amount of material, energy, and/or information transferredper unit time alongnetwork links
1900 2000 2100
ComplexityComplexityPacePace
Connectedness andConnectedness andScopeScope
Globalization
of all humankind’s activitiesof all humankind’s activities
Involves a rapid increase in theInvolves a rapid increase in the
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Changes in Temperature and in CO2 Concentration Over Time
Thousands of Years before Present
Tem
pera
ture
(
from
the
pres
ent c
ore
tem
pera
ture
of
-55.
5 C
)C
O2 C
oncentration (ppmv)
CO2 (right axis)
Temperature (left axis)
Changes in Temperature and in CO2 Concentration Over Time
Thousands of Years before Present
Tem
pera
ture
(
from
the
pres
ent c
ore
tem
pera
ture
of
-55.
5 C
)C
O2 C
oncentration (ppmv)
CO2 (right axis)
Temperature (left axis)
Projection
Can we always supply the Can we always supply the ingenuity we need?ingenuity we need?
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
The ingenuity supply chain
BrainsBrains
ScienceScience
PoliticsPolitics
MarketsMarkets
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Practical constraints on science
Some problems are intrinsically hardSome problems are intrinsically hard
Costs escalate as research progressesCosts escalate as research progresses
Society may not be supportiveSociety may not be supportive
Scientific institutions may not function wellScientific institutions may not function well
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
The ingenuity supply chain
BrainsBrains
ScienceScience
PoliticsPolitics
MarketsMarkets
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Ingenuity Ingenuity GapGap
Time
Supply
Requirement
What does this situation What does this situation mean for our future?mean for our future?
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
Widening gulfs between
richrich
weakweak
poorpoor
powerfulpowerful
INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY
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