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Innovative Policy and
Technology Foresight in
Korea 2011 . 5. 3
Suk Joon KIM, Ph.D.Suk Joon KIM, Ph.D.
PresidentScience and Technology Policy Institute
Republic of Korea
2
ContentsContents
Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean S&T Plans and Policies
Korean Technology ForesightKorean Technology Foresight
Linking Foresight to STI Policy : CasesLinking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases
Lessons LearnedLessons Learned
Korean STI Development and AchievementKorean STI Development and Achievement
3
Economic IndicatorsEconomic Indicators
Source: Bureau of Statistics.
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Population(1000) 25,012 32,241 38,124 42,869 45,985 48,874
GDP(US$, Billion) 2.0 8.1 63.8 263.7 511.8 1,014.3
Growth Rate of GDP(%) 1.2 8.8 -1.5 9.2 8.5 6.2
GDP per capita(US$) 79 254 1,645 6,147 10,841 20,753
Trade Balance(US$, Million) -311 -1,149 -4,787 -4,828 11,786 41,172
Exports(US$, Million) 33 835 17,505 65,016 172,268 466,384
Imports(US$, Million) 344 1,984 22,292 69,844 160,481 425,212
4
STISTI(Science, Technology and Innovation(Science, Technology and Innovation) Statistics and Outputs) Statistics and Outputs
Source: Ministry of Science and Technology.* R&D / GNP ** year of 2008
1963 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009
GERD(US$, Million) 4 33 428 4,676 13,849 31,288
Gov’t-funded vs. Private-funded(%) 97 : 3 71 : 29 64 : 36 19 : 81 25 : 75 29 : 71
R&D Expenditure/GDP(%) 0.25* 0.38* 0.77* 1.87 2.39 3.57
No. of Researchers(FTE, Persons) n.a. 5,628 18,434 70,503 159,973 309,063
No. of Applications for Domestic Patents 771 1,846 5,070 25,820 102,136 163,523
No. of Applications for U.S. Patents 3(1964) 3 8 225 3,786 23,584**
No. of Articles Published on SCI Journals n.a. n.a. 236(1981) 1,587 12,472 35,569
No. of Industrial Laboratories n.a. n.a. 46(1981) 966 7,110 16,719**
5
ExportsExports
Source: Korea Int’l Trade Association, Korea Customs Service.
Item %
1 Iron Ore 13.0
2 Tungsten Ore 12.6
3 Raw Silk 6.7
4 Anthracite 5.8
5 Cuttlefish 5.5
6 Live Fish 4.5
7 Natural Graphite 4.2
8 Plywood 3.3
9 Rice 3.3
10 Bristles 3.0
[1960s]Natural Resource
[1980s]Light Industries; Heavy and Chemical Industries
[2000s]High-tech. Industries; Heavy and Chemical Industries
1960 1980 2009
Item %
Textiles 28.8
Electronics 11.4
Iron/Steel Products 9.0
Footwear 5.2
Ships 3.5
Synthetic Fibers 3.3
Metal Products 2.3
Plywood 2.0
Fish 2.0
Electrical Goods 1.9
Item %
Ships 10.2
Wireless Telecom. Equipment 8.1
Semiconductor 6.7
LCD 6.4
Automobile 6.2
Petrochemical Products 6.1
Automobile Parts 3.0
Broadcasting Equipment 1.6
Special Ships 1.4
Computers 1.4
6
Technological Needs/EffortsTechnological Needs/Efforts
Source: Hwang, Yongsoo (2007).
Industry forIndustry forPromotionPromotion
TechnologicalTechnologicalNeedsNeeds
TechnologicalTechnologicalEffortsEfforts
1960s1960s 1970s1970s 1980s1980s 1990s1990s 2000s2000s
LightIndustry
Heavy and Chemical Industry
Technology-Intensive Industry
New Industry Including ICT
Knowledge-Intensive Industry
OperationTechnology
Equipment-embodied
Technology
ProductionTechnology
Critical/Essential
Technology
CreativeTechnology
Importation/Learning of
Turnkey-based Foreign
Technologies
Absorption/Assimilation
of ForeignTechnologies,
ReverseEngineering
Modificationof Foreign
Technologies,Fostering ofEndogenousTechnology
Development
Broadening/Deepening of
DomesticR&D Efforts
Strengtheningof Future-oriented
R&DEfforts
ImitationImitation InnovationInnovation
7
ContentsContents
Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean S&T Plans and Policies
Korean Technology ForesightKorean Technology Foresight
Linking Foresight to STI Policy : CasesLinking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases
Lessons LearnedLessons Learned
Korean STI Development and AchievementKorean STI Development and Achievement
8
577 Initiative577 Initiative
Input 5%Investment
Reach to 5% of GDP on GERD
Process7
Focused Areas
① World-class human resources ② Basic & fundamental research ③ SMEs’ innovation ④ S&T globalization ⑤ Regional innovation ⑥ S&T infrastructure ⑦ S&T culture
* SMEs : Small-and Medium-sized Enterprises
Perfor-mance Become one of 7 major S&T powers in the world
① Key industrial technologies
② Emerging industrial technologies
③ Knowledge-based service
technologies
④ State-led Technologies
⑤ National issues-related technologies
⑥ Global issues-related technologies
⑦ Basic & convergent technologies
9
R&D –R&D – Concentrate on 7 major technology areasConcentrate on 7 major technology areas
We will concentrate on the development of 90 technologies in the 7 major technology areas
Area(# of tech.) Technology (partly shown)
1. Key Industrial Tech. (12)• Environment-friendly automotive Technology• Intelligent Production System Technology
2. Emerging Industrial Tech. (20)• Cancer diagnosis and treatment Technology• Medical apparatus development Technology
3. Knowledge-based Service Tech.(3)• Converging Contents and Knowledge Service Technology• Advanced Logistics Technology
4. State-led Tech.(20)• Satellite Development Technology• Super-long Bridge Construction Technology
5. National Issues- related Tech.(10)• Immune Disease and Infectious Disease Response Technology• Insect Pest and Disease Prevention and Control Technology
6. Global Issues-related Tech.(18)• Next-Generation Fuel Cells & Energy Storage and Conversion Technology• New and Renewable Energy Technology
7. Basic & Convergent Tech.(7)• Drug Delivery Technology• Nano-based Functional Materials Technology
10
Goals –Goals – Become one of 7 major S&T powers in the worldBecome one of 7 major S&T powers in the world
Output index
11
Tech. Foresight as a STI Policy InstrumentTech. Foresight as a STI Policy Instrument
Technology Foresight is utilized to inform on-going decision-making through the better understanding of advances in S&T and its interaction with the future society, in long term perspectives
Rapidly changing business & tech. env
Climate Changes.
Fast ageing society
Globalization & Newly rising economy
Wild Cards
Challenges (under Korean context)
Technology ForesightTechnology Foresight
Society
Technology
Economy
Ecology
Politics
Value
FreshWater
Security
Meet EnergyDemand
NewBusiness
BasicResearch
North Korea
Issues
Enhancing
S&T
Competitiveness
Enhancing
S&T
Competitiveness
Trends
STI Policy/StrategyFormulation
- Design Innovative S&T System
- Identify Strategic Research Area• key technologies
STI Policy/StrategyFormulation
- Design Innovative S&T System
- Identify Strategic Research Area• key technologies
12
ContentsContents
Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean S&T Plans and Policies
Korean Technology ForesightKorean Technology Foresight
Linking Foresight to STI Policy : CasesLinking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases
Lessons LearnedLessons Learned
Korean STI Development and AchievementKorean STI Development and Achievement
13
Chronology of Technology Foresight ActivitiesChronology of Technology Foresight Activities
14
Tech. Foresight Activities and STEPI CapabilityTech. Foresight Activities and STEPI Capability Technology Foresight Activities in Korea (partly shown)
Technology Foresight Research in STEPI Main facilitator of the 1st(1993) and 2nd(1998) Korean TF Key partner institute for the 3rd (2003) and 4th (2010) Korean TF Providing TF tutorial for the developing countries through ART and TAP since 2001 Currently (in 2011)– Carrying out theme-based TFs in energy and environment area– Dissemination the foresight knowledge through ‘Future Horizon’(quarterly magazine) and ‘STEPI Foresight newsletter’(bi-weekly)
Year Ministry Theme Time Horizon Major Method
2006 Ministry of Information and Communication
Foresight for Information Technology 2030 Delphi
Ubiquitous Korea +15 yrs Panel
2006 Ministry of Health and WelfareFuture Trends in Health care and Life Science
+15 yrs Delphi
2006 Ministry of EnvironmentFuture Trends in Environmental Technology
+15 yrsEnvironmental
Scanning Delphi
2007 Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (MOCIE)
Industrial Technology 2030 Panel
2008-09 Ministry of Knowledge EconomyMajor 5 IT area (SW/Platform/Network/Terminal/convergence)
2020 Delphi
2010 Ministry of Knowledge Economy 2030 IT Convergence Technology 2030 Delphi
15
4th Korean S&T Foresight : Framework4th Korean S&T Foresight : Framework Identification of future technology alternatives Technology Solution and its realization timing (Delphi Survey) Future Scenario and Strategic Policy Options
* courtesy of KISTEP
16
ContentsContents
Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean S&T Plans and Policies
Korean Technology ForesightKorean Technology Foresight
Linking Foresight to STI Policy : CasesLinking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases
Lessons LearnedLessons Learned
Korean STI Development and AchievementKorean STI Development and Achievement
17
From Foresight to STI Policy : From Foresight to STI Policy : Green TechnologyGreen Technology
Results of Forward Looking Activity
Results of Forward Looking Activity Other Future ReportsOther Future Reports
MegatrendMegatrend Limited naturalresource
Limited naturalresource
Shortage ofclean waterShortage ofclean water
Low carbon society
Low carbon society
High energy demand
High energy demand
OECDWorld Resource InstituteEU Foresight ReportStern Review(UK)IEA, etc.
The 2nd & 3rd Tech ForesightS&T Vision 2040National Vision 2030Industry Vision 2030Green Growth Vision etc.
ImplicationImplication
- Strengthen national competiveness through proactive measures for future energy & environment challenges
- Upgrade national innovation system for sustainable growth
- Nurture new economic growth engines in energy and environment industry through advances in Future science and technology
New and Emerging Technologies in Energy and Environment Area
18
Green Technology(GT) Strategy in KoreaGreen Technology(GT) Strategy in Korea
Main Contents of GT R&D Master Plan by NSTC
Source : GT R&D Master Plan, 2009. 1. 13
Direction for Investment into GT DevelopmentDirection for Investment into GT Development
• Double R&D expenditure by ’12• Increase of Basic R&D to 35%
• Selection of Key GTs based ongrowth and green impacts
Increase of GT R&D Investment Increase of GT R&D Investment 27 GTs for focused development 27 GTs for focused development
Convergence
Green Tech
Increase of
Basic R&D
Make existing
Industries green
Enlarging GT
R&D Infra
Strategy for GT Development
19
From Foresight to STI Policy : From Foresight to STI Policy : Information Tech.Information Tech.
Forward looking Activity in Korea
Forward looking Activity in Korea Other Future ReportsOther Future Reports
Megatrends Convergence Convergence VirtualizationVirtualization All things ConnectedAll things
Connected
Each Country’s TF results(USA , EU Framework etc.)Gartner, IBM, Nielson, Economist, wired, IFTF etc.
The 2nd & 3rd Tech ForesightS&T Vision 2040National Vision 2030IT TF 2020 (2007)IT Convergence TF 2030(2011)
- Maintain current competiveness in IT Manufacturing but it needs to widen IT value chain to Service and Contents- Focusing on convergence with other industries- Promote mass creativity based on IT Solution
Implication
SmartSmart
New and Emerging Technologies in Information Technology Area
20
New IT StrategyNew IT Strategy
Source : Ministry of Knowledge Economy(2008) “New IT Strategy”
Vision Advancement of Industrial StructureAnd Solution of Social Problems
Advancement of Industrial StructureAnd Solution of Social Problems
Objectives
IT + Service Industry
Converged Product
Embedded SW
IT Converged Processor
Green IT(Environment-friendly/Energy)
LED Industry
Life + IT
Health Bio + IT
Network/ Wireless Comm.
Semiconductor/Display
IT Components & SW Industry
• Convergence of IT & other industries - Creation of High Added- Value and Improvement of Productivity
1. IT Industry Convergent with other Industries
• Construction of Industrial
Basis for High Oil Prices &
Aging Phenomenon
2. IT Industry solvingEconomic & Social
Problems
• Consolidation of Cooperation
among Enterprises and
Enhancement of Components
& SW Competitiveness
3. IT IndustryAdvancing Higher
21
ContentsContents
Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean S&T Plans and Policies
Korean Technology ForesightKorean Technology Foresight
Linking Foresight to STI Policy : CasesLinking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases
Lessons LearnedLessons Learned
Korean STI Development and AchievementKorean STI Development and Achievement
22
Lessons Learned (1/2)Lessons Learned (1/2)
key instrument for STI policy/strategy formulation
by addressing long-term future challenges and societal issues
<National strategic technology selection procedures: 18 years of experiences>
→ Implemented into 5yr National S&T Basic Plan
→ Priority setting for strategic research area : 7 areas/90 technologies
→ Sector-based STI strategy and success: GT, IT (LCD, LED, IT Service)
key linkage in fusion and convergence technology paradigm
→ it helps to build new networks and linkages across fields
→ Facilitate the adoption of inter-disciplinary thinking over long term horizon
Increasing Importance and success of Tech. Foresight in Korean STIIncreasing Importance and success of Tech. Foresight in Korean STI
23
Lessons Learned (2/2)Lessons Learned (2/2)
Strategic technology selection and focused investment Essential for emerging economy’s S&T development with scarce resources both in Human capital and S&T infra,
Based on Korea’s experience, it is highly recommended to adopt strategic tech. selection procedure with tech. foresight for effective national STI policy/strategy formulation
Build-up national champions in strategic target S&T areas Along with global fusion and convergence technology paradigm shifts, strategic national target S&T areas should be raised up as national champions in cooperation of domestic indigenous enterprises.
Implication for Emerging Economy for Adopting Tech. ForesightImplication for Emerging Economy for Adopting Tech. Foresight
Thank you !!Thank you !!
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