IsThereAFutureforTelecom.ppt [Sólo lectura]antonio/IsThereAFutureforTelecom_slides.pdf · Enron...

¿Hay un futuro para las Telecomunicaciones?”

Roberto SaraccoFuture Centre - TILABroberto.saracco@tilab.com

Is there a future for Telecommunications?

Today’s SituationA possible FutureChallenges ahead

Birds of a Feather

TELCOS MOBILE OPER.

INTERNET COMPANIES MANUFACTURERS

TODAY’S SITUATION

Promises, Promises

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TODAY’S SITUATION

Promises, Promises

TODAY’S SITUATION

Aleron

360Networks Digital Teleport

Enron Broadband

Ebone/GTS

FLAG Telecom Global Crossing

GST

Impsat

KPNQwest

Sigma NetworksSphera

Storm TelecommunicationsTeleglobe

Telergy

Velocita

ViatelWilliams Communications

Adelphia Broadband Office

Metromedia

Convergent Com

Covad

ICG Comm

FastComm

Global Telecom

North Point

Rhythms

McLeodUSA

OnSite

NetConnections

XOCommun

Yipes

WINfirst

ZephionIridium

OmniskyMetricom

NextWave

PSINet

Ardent

Excite@home

Exodus

iBeam

NetRail

Globalstar

StarBand

Motient

ARTWinStar

Teligent

What did not Work…

• The myth of Replacement

TODAY’S SITUATION

What did not Work…

TODAY’S SITUATION

DoCoMo ARPU

• Revenue Ceiling - Revenue Squeeze

What did not Work…

TODAY’S SITUATION

• Demand vs Offer

What did not Work…

TODAY’S SITUATION

• Demand vs Offer

A lot of information out there…

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Music

Books

Mags

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TODAY’S SITUATION

A lot of information out there…

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Music

Books

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Office

RadioTB

TODAY’S SITUATION

A lot of information out there…

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Music

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TODAY’S SITUATION

A lot of information out there…

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MusicBooksMagsMoviesDVDNewsp.WWWOfficeRadioTelevis.e-MailTB

TODAY’S SITUATION

A lot of information out there…

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Music

Books

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e-MailTB

TODAY’S SITUATION

A lot of information out there…

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Music

Books

Mags

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DVD

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e-Mail

Home Video

Photos

Telefono

PB

TODAY’S SITUATION

A lot of information out there…

PB 0

100

200

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Music

Books

Mags

Movies

DVD

Newsp.

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Office

Radio

Televis.

e-Mail

Home Video

Photos

Telefono

TODAY’S SITUATION

A lot of information out there…

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100

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Music

Books

Mags

Movies

DVD

Newsp.

WWW

Office

Radio

Televis

e-Mail

Home Video

Photos

Telephone

TODAY’S SITUATION

What will be?

A POSSIBLE FUTURE

Beyond the barriers of space and…time

Beyond the Blackboard …

A POSSIBLE FUTURE

Beyond the barriers of space and…time

BEYOND THE BLACKBOARD …

Be there, staying here

A POSSIBLE FUTURE

INFORMATION APPLIANCES

A World of Intelligent Things

A POSSIBLE FUTURE

A World of Intelligent Things

ON THE ROAD,IN THE COUNTRYSIDE,...

INFORMATION APPLIANCES

A POSSIBLE FUTURE

Computers Evolution

1960… MAINFRAME1970… MINICOMPUTER1980… DESKTOP1990… LAPTOP1998… PALMTOP2002 ROACHTOP

A POSSIBLE FUTURE

Computers Evolution

1960… MAINFRAME1970… MINICOMPUTER1980… DESKTOP1990… LAPTOP1998… PALMTOP2002 ROACHTOP2005 PAPERTOP

A POSSIBLE FUTURE

Computers Evolution

1960… MAINFRAME1970… MINICOMPUTER1980… DESKTOP1990… LAPTOP1998… PALMTOP2002… ROACHTOP2005… PAPERTOP

2012… TOPA POSSIBLE FUTURE

Beyond Internet

Web Services

Resource Pr.Connection Pr.

Collective Pr.A POSSIBLE FUTURE

A crumbling world

Time / distance based pricing

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Traffic Revenues

SubscriptionRevenues

CHALLENGES AHEAD

A crumbling world

Time / distance based pricing

Bandwidth based pricing

CHALLENGES AHEAD

A crumbling world

Time / distance based pricing

SLA based pricing

Bandwidth based pricing

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Outer Evolution

• Storage

52 MB

1 TBCHALLENGES AHEAD

Outer Evolution

• Storage

• RF Tag

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Outer Evolution

• Storage

• RF Tag

• Display

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Outer Evolution

• Storage

• RF Tag

• Display

• Battery

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Paradigms

Peer to Peer

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Paradigms

Peer to PeerCluster to Cluster

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Paradigms

Peer to PeerCluster to Cluster

Sticker

Expectations…

The goal is to have data rates up to 20 Mbps, even when used in such scenarios as a vehicle travelling

200 kilometers per hour(*)

(*) http://www.commsdesign.com/story/OEG20010626S0065

WHY?

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Disruptions Ahead

Increase in storage

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Dynamic Memory

Disruptions Ahead

Increase in storage

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Dynamic Memory

• Hard Disk

Disruptions Ahead

Increase in storage

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Dynamic Memory

• Hard Disk

• Read Only

Disruptions Ahead

A consumer market

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Squeezing Margins

Disruptions Ahead

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Squeezing Margins

• Managing the Unmanageable

A consumer market

Disruptions Ahead

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Squeezing Margins

• Managing the Unmanageable

• New Tech Leaders

A consumer market

Disruptions Ahead

Offer exceeds demand

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Content

• Carriers

• Applications

Disruptions Ahead

Pin-pointing

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Zooming

Disruptions Ahead

Pin-pointing

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Zooming

• Localization

Disruptions Ahead

Pin-pointing

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Zooming

• Localization

• Tagging

Disruptions Ahead

Moore’s Law reversed

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Disruptions Ahead

Wireless Access

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• From Connectivity to Services

• M2M

• Overlayed Networks

Disruptions Ahead

Displays

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Ubiquitous Connectivity

Disruptions Ahead

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Communications Environments

Digital Television

Disruptions Ahead

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Eyeballs

• Interactivity

• Advertising

From Bits to Atoms

Disruptions Ahead

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Printing bits

From Bits to Atoms

Disruptions Ahead

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Printing bits

• Packaging services into atoms

Looking for Value

1 MB of SMS = 1000 E

1 MB on mobile = 1 E

1 MB on fixed line = 0,1 E

1 MB of television = 0,001 E

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Looking for Value

Context FREE

1 E per mc

1.000 E per mc

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Looking for Value

Context

Internet

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Looking for Value

Context

Internet

Embedded Telecommunications

CHALLENGES AHEAD

4 or 40 millions Operators?

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Software Radio

• The Bigger the Better?

4 or 40 millions Operators?

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Software Radio

• WLAN

• The Bigger the Better?

4 or 40 millions Operators?

CHALLENGES AHEAD

• Software Radio

• WLAN

• Wireless Routers

• The Bigger the Better?

SUMMING IT UP

THE FUTURE

The future is in the fixed-network

Log(1+ )SB*n0

SUMMING IT UP

The future is in the fixed-networkThe future of services is in the wireless access

Log(1+ )SB*n0

THE FUTURE