JFK Overview – all 30 Crews

Research on High Fidelity Simulator Scenario Design to evaluate Crew Performance in abnormal and surprising Situations

Ekkehart Schubert | Research Associate Flight Safety & Flight Simulation

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 2

SMS - Safety Performance Index ( 2009 – 2015 )

Joint Project in the Federal Aeronautical Research Programme (LuFo IV-2) with focus on quantitative risk assessment & protective measures in airline operations

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 3

Multiple Failures (Accident in Munich on May 17th 2012)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 4

Unexpected & Time Critical Scenario (Definition)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 5

Pilots were scheduled for participation as part of their

working time (special refresher)

Participation in this full-flight simulator experiment was not voluntary (randomly selected)

120 pilots holding valid ATPL with appropriate type ratings

Map generated by Great Circle Mapper

copyright © Karl L. Swartz

Participants Nov/Dec 2013 (Airline Pilots)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 6

Map generated by Great Circle Mapper

copyright © Karl L. Swartz

Sim Configuration AP/FD ON in ALT/HDG Mode in 3,000 ft Flaps 2 with ATHR SPD Mode with 170 Kts

Non-precision landing @ moderate weather Wind 180°/10Kts OVC 1800ft light Rain Vis 8km “Real” ATC LFMN with RWY 22R for Landing “Real” ATC KJFK with RWY 13L and 22R for Landing

Fuel for approx. 60 min. A340-600 7,500 kg FOB / A320-200 2,500 kg FOB

Background Nov/Dec 2013 (Pilot Info)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 7

AVIATE Crew identifies unsafe nose gear Set TOGA for GA and NAV Mode

NAVIGATE PF check if A/C follow Missed Approach Procedure

COMMUNICATE PM inform ATC, cabin and PAX declare emergency?

MANGAGE THE SYSTEMS Crew executes SOPs and Checklists : ECAM, QRH and ILD Crew SA gear remains down check fuel, flight time Crew runway decision or diversion

1st malfunction (loss of green hydraulic @ gear down)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 8

AVIATE Crew identifies unsafe nose gear Set TOGA for GA and NAV Mode

NAVIGATE PF check if A/C follow Missed Approach Procedure

COMMUNICATE PM inform ATC, cabin and PAX declare emergency?

MANGAGE THE SYSTEMS Crew executes SOPs and Checklists : ECAM, QRH and ILD Crew SA gear remains down check fuel, flight time Crew runway decision or diversion

1st malfunction (loss of green hydraulic @ gear down)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 9

2nd malfunction (slats or flaps locked @ lever setting)

AVIATE & NAVIGATE Crew identifies wing tip brake on check a/c configuration, fuel, flight time Crew decides for continue approach and landing ASAP or Crew decides circling/hold (360°) or second missed approach

COMMUNICATE PM request circling / hold or second missed approach

MANGAGE THE SYSTEMS Crew executes SOPs and Checklists again: ECAM, QRH and ILD Crew SA flaps or slats movement consider possible slat/flap setting for landing Crew decision (longer runway)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 10

© Andreas Haslbeck (2013)

Experimental Observation (A346 Full Flight Simulator)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 11

JFK Overview – all 30 Crews (A346 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 12

JFK Overview – all 30 Crews (A346 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 13

JFK Runway selection (A346 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 14

JFK Runway selection (A346 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 15

JFK Approach Type (A346 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 16

2nd GA FOB 900 kg (A346 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 17

JFK Fuel vs. Time – all 30 Crews (A346 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 18

JFK Fuel vs. Time – all 30 Crews (A346 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 19

NCE Overview – all 30 Crews (A320 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 20

NCE Overview – all 30 Crews (A320 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 21

NCE Runway selection (A320 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 22

Crew intend Nose Gear up Landing (A320 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 23

A320-200

Landing Runway Overrun (A320 Scenario)

CM2 QRH Trouble No ECAM items No LDG C/L SPD BRK not armed !!!

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 24

A320-200

Marseille Diversion FOB <400kg (A320 Scenario)

MAYDAY declared early Diversion to Marseille Flight Freeze ~400kg FOB

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 25

„Chain of Events” (Newcastle Incident on Aug 17th 2013)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 26

Fuel vs. Time – all 30 Crews (A320 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 27

Fuel vs. Time – all 30 Crews (A320 Scenario)

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 28

Recommendations:

Procedures have to be simplified whenever possible

Implementation of a TIME CRITICAL LANDING PROCEDURE

Fuel Management and Awareness

Simulator-Training (on top !!!):

Additional Scenarios & Simulators Unexpected and complex situations

Error Analysis Training (Train the Trainer concepts)

Simulator Results / Take away’s

APATS 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, 15-16 September 2015 | Ekkehart Schubert | Section Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Page 29

Ekkehart Schubert E-Mail: ekkehart.schubert@tu-berlin.de

Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Chair of Flight Guidance and Air Transportation Prof. Dr.-Ing. Oliver Lehmann / Sekr. F3 Marchstr. 12-14 / D-10587 Berlin / GERMANY Internet: http://www.ff.tu-berlin.de

Thank you very much for your attention !!!