View
217
Download
0
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
Wage, Income and Hours Data: Current Population Survey (CPS)
• Continue our theme of introducing you to major U.S. data.
• Current Population Survey:
High quality data extends back to the 1960s.
Large samples of U.S. households.
Panel Dimension (4 months in, 8 months out, 4 months in).
Detailed information about labor market status (every month).
Detailed information about hours asked every month.
Detailed information about hours/earnings – asked less frequently.
Large sample sizes allow for analysis by U.S. states.
Trends in The Natural Rate In Unemployment
• Did labor market conditions improve during the 1980s and 1990s?
- Unemployment rates fell substantially
• Related concept:
Do income or substitution effects dominate with respect to
labor supply decisions?
• Must reads:
Juhn, Murphy, and Topel “
Autor and Duggan
• For a detailed analysis of the intersection of the role of disability andlabor supply, see:
“The Rise in the Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment”
David Autor and Mark Duggan (QJE 2003)
• Show that during recessions, the disability margin is much more relevantnow than it was during the 1980s (the benefits to the disabled are nowmore comparable to unemployment benefits than before).
Conclusions
• Decline in unemployment rate may not represent accurately the trends in labor market performance.
• Large decline in participation rates for men.
• Non employment has declined much less than unemployment.
• The decline is much more pronounced for low wage men.
• Does it tell us substitution effects are important? What about changes in transfers?
Parental Time With Children By Education
From Guryan, Hurst, and Kearney (JEP 2008) “Parental Education and Parental Time With Children”
More Facts
• Richer countries spend more time with children than poorer countries.
• Within countries, high educated parents spend more time with childrenrelative to low education parents.
How Do Locations Respond to Local Shocks?
• Continue our theme about thinking about regional economics (house prices are one part of that).
• The direct mechanism: Mobility.
• What implications do mobility have on the response of labor supply, wages, and unemployment to local economic shocks?
• Some work:
Blanchard/Katz (Brookings, )
Topel “Local Labor Markets” (JPE, 1986)
Consider the Following Labor Market (Inelastic Labor Supply)
0iW W
0iN
Labor Demand
Labor Supply
1iW
In short run, adjustment takes place on wages (labor supply is less elastic in short run)
Consider the Following Labor Market (Inelastic Labor Supply)
0iW W
0iN
Labor Demand
Labor Supply
In long run, adjustment takes place on N (labor supply is more elastic in long run)
2iN
Conclusions of Blanchard/Katz
• Regional Adjustments Take Place
• In short run, response occurs on unemployment and wage margins.
• In long run, it occurs on labor supply margin (via migration).
• Spatial equilibrium model has to make individuals indifferent to move across regions.
Cross State Convergence in Income Per Capita
AL
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
FL
GA
ID
IL
IN
IA
KSKY
LA
ME MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
ORPA
RI
SC
SDTN
TX
UTVT
VA
WA
WVWI
WY
.51
1.5
2G
row
th in
Pe
r C
apita I
ncom
e 1
940
-1980
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000Per Capita Income 1940
Fitted values gr_ipc_40_80
Unadjusted 1940-1980Historical Trends in Convergence
See a full discussion in Barro/Sali-Martin (Brookings, xxxx)
Convergence By Decades: 1940 – 1960
AL
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
FL
GA
ID
IL
INIA
KSKY
LA
ME
MDMA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV WI
WY
.2.4
.6.8
1G
row
th in
Pe
r C
apita
Inco
me
1940
-1960
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000Per Capita Income 1940
Fitted values gr_ipc_40_60
Unadjusted 1940-1960Historical Trends in Convergence
Convergence By Decades: 1960 – 1980
AL
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
FLGA
ID
IL
IN
IA KS
KYLA
ME
MD
MAMI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NHNJNM
NY
NC
ND OH
OK
ORPA
RI
SC
SD
TN TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
.3.4
.5.6
.7G
row
th in
Pe
r C
apita
Inc
ome
196
0-1
980
8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000Per Capita Income 1960
Fitted values gr_ipc_60_80
Unadjusted 1960-1980Historical Trends in Convergence
Convergence By Decades: 1980 – 2000?
AL
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DEFL
GA
ID
ILIN
IA KS
KY
LA
MEMD
MA
MI
MN
MSMO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PARI
SC SDTN
TXUT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
.1.2
.3.4
.5G
row
th in
Pe
r C
apita
Inc
ome
198
0-2
000
15000 20000 25000Per Capita Income 1980
Fitted values gr_ipc_80_00
Unadjusted 1980-2000Recent Trends in Convergence
Why Has Convergence Stopped?
• A great research question to think about
• Change in the skill premium?
• Chang-Tai Hseih and I are starting to put structure on this question
• How does changes in discrimination affect economic growth?
Inequality in Racial Occupational ChoiceBlack Men vs. White Men
White Men Decile 1940 1960 1980 2000
1 0.298 0.454 0.220 0.1792 0.286 0.100 0.130 0.1713 0.171 0.155 0.168 0.1004 0.055 0.092 0.147 0.1475 0.095 0.051 0.070 0.0946 0.032 0.075 0.075 0.0927 0.022 0.029 0.058 0.0528 0.019 0.023 0.057 0.0789 0.011 0.013 0.035 0.05610 0.012 0.009 0.041 0.030
Occupational Distribution Gini 0.543 0.545 0.310 0.253
Inequality in Racial Occupational ChoiceBlack Men vs. White Men
White Men Decile 1940 1960 1980 2000
Wage Gap -0.877 (0.006) -0.621 (0.005) -0.352 (0.003) -0.263 (0.003)Wage Gap | Education -0.515 (0.006) -0.423 (0.005) -0.256 (0.003) -0.182 (0.002)
Wage Gape | Education and Occ. -0.341 (0.006) -0.222 (0.005) -0.189 (0.003) -0.113 (0.002)
Wage Gap (Ed = 12) -0.476 (0.024) -0.207 (0.004)Wage Gap | Occ (Ed = 12) -0.285 (0.024) -0.140 (0.004)
Wage Gap (Ed = Some College) -0.668 (0.027) -0.161 (0.004)Wage Gap | Occ (Ed = Some
College) -0.427 (0.027) -0.087 (0.004)
Wage Gap (Ed = 16+) -0.492 (0.007) -0.206 (0.006)Wage Gap | Occ (Ed = 16+) -0.330 (0.007) -0.114 (0.005)
Inequality in Racial Occupational ChoiceWhite Women vs. White Men
White Men Decile 1940 1960 1980 2000
1 0.139 0.124 0.235 0.1492 0.047 0.171 0.041 0.0743 0.061 0.102 0.123 0.0684 0.181 0.050 0.080 0.0825 0.017 0.131 0.142 0.1566 0.121 0.138 0.157 0.1217 0.217 0.048 0.070 0.1018 0.173 0.184 0.055 0.1109 0.019 0.026 0.042 0.076
10 0.024 0.025 0.055 0.062
Occupational Distribution Gini 0.045 0.149 0.200 0.053
Inequality in Racial Occupational ChoiceWhite Women vs. White Men
White Men Decile 1940 1960 1980 2000
Wage Gap -0.424 (0.004) -0.641 (0.003) -0.509 (0.002) -0.240 (0.002)Wage Gap | Education -0.484 (0.003) -0.676 (0.003) -0.512 (0.002) -0.283 (0.002)Wage Gape | Education
and Occ. -0.468 (0.004) -0.613 (0.003) -0.440 (0.002) -0.225 (0.002)
Wage Gap (Ed = 12) -0.421 (0.006)Wage Gap | Occ (Ed = 12) -0.464 (0.008)
Wage Gap (Ed > 12) -0.452 (0.008)Wage Gap | Occ (Ed > 12) -0.420 (0.010)
Wage Gap (Ed < 12) -0.524 (0.005)Wage Gap | Occ (Ed < 12) -0.479 (0.006)
Inequality in Racial Occupational ChoiceBlack Women vs. White Men
White Men Decile 1940 1960 1980 2000
1 0.780 0.517 0.385 0.2452 0.021 0.204 0.050 0.0983 0.077 0.077 0.150 0.0954 0.032 0.005 0.062 0.0855 0.009 0.049 0.120 0.1446 0.013 0.085 0.101 0.0937 0.009 0.020 0.035 0.0768 0.054 0.032 0.047 0.0789 0.002 0.007 0.025 0.05210 0.004 0.004 0.026 0.036
Occupational Distribution Gini 0.731 0.614 0.403 0.239
Inequality in Racial Occupational ChoiceBlack Women vs. White Men
White Men Decile 1940 1960 1980 2000
Wage Gap -1.350 (0.009) -1.190 (0.008) -0.613 (0.003) -0.359 (0.003)Wage Gap | Education -1.078 (0.009) -1.088 (0.007) -0.568 (0.003) -0.331 (0.002)
Wage Gap | Education and Occ. -0.783 (0.014) -0.718 (0.009) -0.409 (0.003) -0.232 (0.003)
Wage Gap (Ed = 12) -1.018 (0.026)Wage Gap | Occ (Ed = 12) -0.688 (0.035)
Wage Gap (Ed > 12) -1.012 (0.033)Wage Gap | Occ (Ed > 12) -0.750 (0.034)
Wage Gap (Ed < 12) -1.076 (0.010)Wage Gap | Occ (Ed < 12) -0.800 (0.007)
Recommended