Lessons from Hurricane Sandy: Analysis of vulnerabilities exposed by Hurricane Sandy and potential...

Lessons from Hurricane Sandy: Analysis of vulnerabilities exposed by Hurricane Sandy and potential mitigation strategies in the Northeastern

US

Anthony Torres, Benjamin Lowden, Kazuki Ito, Sabrina Shuman

❖ Assessment of Hurricane Sandy❖ Vulnerabilities❖ Risk of future storms❖ Mitigation strategies

Agenda

Assessment of Hurricane Sandy

Environmental Damage

Flooding

Human health & wildlife

Transportation

Sewage overflow &

damage

Water quality

raleighpublicrecord.org

Getty, The Observer

Environmental Damage

❖ Flooding & Overflow of sewage ➢ No power or damage to over 80 sewage

treatment systems➢ Estimated 2.75 billion gallons of untreated

waste from Passaic Valley Sewerage Commision

❖ Water quality➢ Raw sewage in homes➢ Affected water supply systems

Environmental Damage

❖ Human health ➢ Impacted water quality➢ Mold growth due to flooding

❖ Wildlife→ coastal waterbirds➢ High winds and storm-driven water moved

masses of coastal sediments→ changed barrier landscapes, and eroded nesting islands

Infrastructural Damage

❖ 650,000+ houses destroyed or damaged➢ 305K in New York, 346K in New Jersey

❖ 8 million+ customers lost power

http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/13/world/americas/hurricane-sandy-fast-facts/http://www.propertyinsurancecoveragelaw.com/2013/01/articles/commercial-insurance-claims/there-is-coverage-for-business-income-losses-caused-by-power-outages-during-hurricane-sandy/

Port of New York and New Jersey

❖Hurricane Sandy drove a 14 ft. storm surge

❖Areas of the Port were closed 3-5 days❖Severe damage to:

➢ Oil Refineries➢ Port Operation Centers/Transformers➢ Transportation Infrastructure

❖Also major damage to private marinas

Case Study: NYC Transportation

❖Subway operations completely shut down until 11/1➢ Full operations aren’t restored until 11/26

❖Bus system fully restored 10/31, free fare➢ Used to aid with gridlock issues

❖Ferry services restored by 11/2❖All tunnels are reopened by 11/13

Economic Damage

❖Hurricane Sandy was the second costliest in US history➢ Estimate damage of $50 Billion+➢ $19 Billion to NYC alone

❖Over 19,000 small businesses suffered $250,000 in damages

Vulnerabilities

Vulnerability

❖ Coastal regions are highly vulnerable, but attract people and assets➢ 13 out of 20 most populated cities➢ 23% of world’s population

❖ Flood losses in 2005 are estimated $6 billion➢ Different characteristics, such as geography,

cultural background, and government systems

Developed and Developing countries❖ Developing countries

➢ Lower level of mitigation systems, less exposure❖ Developed countries

➢ Higher level of mitigation systems, more exposure

Exposed assets to 100-year flood: bar(left, $billion)Annual average losses: line(right, $million)

(Hallegatte, 2013)

❖ Tropical cyclone prone country➢ 44 severe cyclones and 0.5 million deaths (1900-

2000).➢ 1970 Bhola cyclone and 1991 Bangladesh

cyclone.

❖ Two strategies➢ Collaboration with

international organizations➢ Local government &

community’s roles

Case study: Bangladesh

Rahman (2011)

Decentralization

❖ Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015➢ (f) Both communities and local authorities should be

empowered to manage and reduce disaster risks by having access to the necessary information, resources, and authority to implement actions for disaster risk reduction.(III. A. 13. (f))

➢ (d) Recognize the importance and specificity of local risk patterns and trends, decentralized responsibilities and resources for disaster risk reduction to relevant sub-national or local authorities, as appropriate. (III. B. 15. (i) (d))

Decentralization

❖ Merits➢ Encourage local participation➢ Utilize local knowledge and resources➢ Provide flexible management mechanism

❖ Challenges➢ Local technical capacity➢ Education and public awareness/participation➢ Funds should be used for disaster management

purpose

Challenge: Responsibility

❖ Disincentive➢ Financial relief for states affected by disasters would

weaken initiative for pre-disaster preparation➢ $62.3 billion for emergency response and recovery by

two supplementals for Hurricane Katrina

❖ Communication➢ Push vs Pull systems➢ Gap between local governments/communities

Assessing Risk of Future Storms

Assessing Risk of Future Storms

❖ Look at past storms in the NE U.S. ➢ How often did they happen in the past?

❖ Identify vulnerable regions-- what makes them vulnerable?

❖ How is climate change increasing this risk?➢ sea-level rise

❖ How will growing population influence impact?

Tropical cyclones within 200 nm of NYC since 1842

(NOAA)

All hurricanes within 200 nm of NYC since 1842

(NOAA)

Major hurricanes within 200 nm of NYC since 1842

(NOAA)

Westward turning tropical cyclonessince 1842

(NOAA)

Hurricane Risk98 tropical cyclones within 200 nm of NYC since 1842: ● 33 hurricanes (category 1 - 5)● 17 hurricanes (category 2-5)● 6 major hurricanes (cat 3-5)● 1 category 4 hurricane (Esther - 1961)

Sandy westward turn

Sandy moves west

North American Mesoscale (NAM) model initialization 00:00 UTC Oct 30, 2012

Sandy: Storm Surge (USGS)

(feet)

Climate: Sea Level Rise

(NOAA)

Climate: Sea Level Rise

(NOAA)

Flooding vulnerability

image: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/29/hurricane-sandy-impact-infographic_n_4171243.html

Increased cost from storms is better explained by increased wealth, not increased frequency or intensity of storms. (Pielke Jr.)

Future storms risk❖ Large hurricane battered NE coast in

1821 ❖ Insurance estimates if the same exact

storm occurred today, there would be $100 billion USD in damages.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/webprogram/Paper257982.html

Mitigation Strategies

What Was Done: NYC

❖Coastal Storm Plan, Evacuation➢ CSP is a blueprint that includes plans for:

■ Tracking storm■ Decision Making■ Evacuation at-risk populations■ Sheltering■ Addressing the public■ Recovery and restoration

➢ Mandatory evacuation for Zone A, 10/28

What Was Done: New Jersey

❖State of Emergency, 10/27➢ Chris Christie ordered mandatory Barrier

Islands evacuation (10/28)➢ Atlantic City casinos must be evacuated too➢ Hoboken and Jersey City 1st floor apartments

must be evacuated➢ President Obama signed emergency

declaration prior to landfall

Shifting Responsibilities

❖Re-organize preparedness and recovery responsibilities ➢ Less to FEMA➢ More to states and municipalities➢ More to National Guard and Coast Guard

❖State Governments have started to rely on FEMA➢ Less funding is put towards preparing for

disaster

Coastal Storm Plans

❖Create Coastal Storm Plans for at-risk cities and towns➢ Following the example set by NYC➢ Cities such as Boston, Providence,

Washington D.C, and other at risk municipalities

Prevent vs. Prepare

❖Analyze flood risk➢ Flood hazard mapping with Advisory Base

Flood Elevation (ABFE) maps

❖Slow down (and stop) building on the immediate coast➢ Barrier Islands, Long Island, Cape Cod and

popular coastal areas will not withstand large storm surges

Thank You!

References 1. Manuel, John. "The Long Road to Recovery: Environmental Health Impacts of Hurricane Sandy." Environmental Health Perspective. Web. 20 Apr. 2015. <The Long Road to Recovery: Environmental Health Impacts of Hurricane Sandy>.

2. Kenward, Alyson. "Sewage Overflows from Hurricane Sandy." Climate Central. 30 Apr. 2013. Web. 20 Apr. 2015. <http://www.climatecentral.org/news/11-billion-gallons-of-sewage-overflow-from-hurricane-sandy-15924>.

3. http://www.decidenyc.com/issues/infrastructure-sandy-recovery-disaster-preparedness/4. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/12/hurricane-sandy-second-costliest_n_2669686.html5. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/29/hurricane-sandy-impact-infographic_n_4171243.html6. http://www.dailyfinance.com/on/hurricane-sandy-anniversary-economic-cost/#!slide=9821707. http://www.njspotlight.com/stories/13/04/09/hurricane-sandy-leaves-state-with-2-6b-tab-for-water-infrastructure/8. http://wagner.nyu.edu/files/rudincenter/sandytransportation.pdf9. http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/planning_response/planning_coastal_storm_plan.shtml10. http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/10/after-hurricane-sandy-time-to-learn-and-implement-the-lessons

Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R. J., and Corfee-Morlot, J. (2013). “Future flood losses in major coastal cities.” Natural Climate Change 3, 802-806. doi:10.1038/nclimate1979. [Available online at http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n9/full/nclimate1979.html]

Huffington Post, cited 2013: Hurricane Sandy's Impact, By The Numbers (INFOGRAPHIC). [Available online at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/29/hurricane-sandy-impact-infographic_n_4171243.html]

Linkin, M. E., 2015: The 1821 Norfolk-Long Island Hurricane: The East Coast's $100 billion event. 13th History of Weather Symposium, Phoenix, Amer. Meteor. Soc. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/webprogram/Paper257982.html]

NOAA Office for Coastal Management, cited 2015: Hurricanes. [Available online at http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/?redirect=301ocm]

NOAA Tides & Currents, cited 2015: Sea Level Trends [Available online at http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html]

Mohleji, S. and Pielke, R., Jr. (2014). "Reconciliation of Trends in Global and Regional Economic Losses from Weather Events: 1980–2008." Nat. Hazards Rev., 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000141 (Feb. 22, 2014).

Rahman, A. and Islam, R. (2011). “SHelters and Schools.” Climate of coastal Cooperation 169-171. Leiden: Coastal & Marine Union - EUCC. [Available online at http://www.coastalcooperation.net/part-0/CCC.pdf]

USGS, cited 2015: Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide mapper. [Available online at http://54.243.149.253/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=c07fae08c20c4117bdb8e92e3239837e]