Lessons from the Masters - The Global Voice of...

Lessons from the Masters Reflections from 25 years as a Quality Professional

Mark A. Morris

M and M Consulting, LLC

ASQ Automotive Division Symposium

June 8, 2015

mark@MandMconsulting.com © 2013 – 2015, M and M Consulting, LLC

Jimmy Smith

Retired from Caterpillar,

Jimmy spoke at the 2009

ASQ World Conference; he

spoke about what it meant

to him, to be a quality

professional.

His words touched my soul.

My Goal…

This presentation has evolved…

My goal is to remember the people upon whose shoulders I stand, and to share my story.

My hope is that you will be touched, as I was, that you’ll take a moment to remember those on whose shoulders you stand.

Who are The Masters?

People who have

influenced my life in

some significant way.

So many, no longer

with us.

Sculpture by Franklin Simmons (1903)

Looking for Truth

“It was a puzzling thing.

The truth knocks on the

door and you say,

“Go away, I’m looking

for the truth,”

and so it goes away.

Puzzling.” Robert M. Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance (1974)

Two Letters Cross Paths

seeker of truth

follow no path

all paths lead where

truth is here

EE Cummings

Hierarchy of Needs

Abraham Maslow (1943)

On the Shoulders of Giants

“If I have seen a

little bit further it is

by standing on the

shoulders of giants.”

Sir Isaac Newton (1676)

Regarding Plagiarism

“How lucky Adam was.

He knew when he said

a good thing, nobody

had said it before.”

Mark Twain (1867)

Phil Crosby gave us four absolutes…

1. Conform to requirements.

2. Prevent rather than detect.

3. Do it right the first time.

4. Price of nonconformance.

Writing Technical Documentation

Chapter 4

Operations

Performance

Standards

Processes &

Procedures

Facilities &

Equipment

Training &

Knowledge

Inputs Outputs Know Each Control

Machine Start Up

Safe Shut Down

Recover from Crash

Recover from E-Stop

Guide to Quality Control

1. How to collect data

2. Histograms

3. Cause and effects diagrams

4. Check sheets

5. Pareto diagrams

6. Graphs

7. Control charts

8. Scatter diagrams

9. Binomial probability

10. Sampling

11. Sampling Inspection

Kaoru Ishikawa Ph.D.

Some Good Advice…

W. Edwards Deming

Refuse to do

what’s wrong!

More Advice from Dr. Deming

• No Inspection without Recording

• No Recording without Analysis

• No Analysis without Action

The Genius of…

Walter A. Shewhart

Invented tools that

give us a rational

basis to know whether

data is random or is

affected by assignable

causes.

What are Control Charts?

• Control charts are a graphical technique used to

analyze data in the order created to understand

our processes.

• Control charts give us a scientific basis to identify

assignable (special) causes of variation.

• Dr. Shewhart taught us to use control charts to

identify and eliminate special cause variation.

A History of Read and React…

Statistical Method from the Viewpoint of Quality Control

Walter A. Shewhart (1939)

The New Economics for Industry, Government, Education

W. Edwards Deming (1993)

Juran on Leadership for Quality

Joseph M. Juran (1989)

Statistical Problem Solving

Hans Bajaria & Richard Copp (1991)

The Goal

Eli Goldratt & Jeff Cox (1984, 1992, 2004)

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People

Stephen R. Covey (1989, 2004)

Statistical Quality Control Handbook

Natural Variation Inherent in the Process

Central Limit Theorem

Clearly, we would expect to see individual values lie

outside of the control limits from time to time, but we

would expect sample averages to lie between them.

Statistical Signals

68.26%

95.46%

99.73%

Distribution

of Averages

How to Identify Out-of-Control Signals

An Ideal Bowl Experiment

• We chose a distribution, the sum of two fair dice.

• Each individual solution is equally likely.

• From this distribution we draw samples of four, with replacement.

7 8 9 10 11 12 2 3 4 5 6

X Bar and R Chart

4

5

7

7

2

5

7

10

6 6 2 2 2 5 3 4

7 8 3 7 5 6 4 5

66688689

10 8 9 9 8 7 11 9

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

X = 6.2

UCL = X + A2 x R = 10.0

LCL = X - A2 x R = 2.4

R = 5.2

Sample Data from Ideal Bowl: n = 4

UCL = R x D4 = 11.9

Two Serious Mistakes

Two mistakes are frequently made in attempts to improve results, and both are costly.

1. To react to an outcome as if it came from a special cause, when it actually came from common cause variation.

2. To treat an outcome as if it came from common causes of variation, when it actually came from a special cause.

Purpose of Control Charts

Special Cause

Signal

No signal of

special causes

Action focused

to eliminate

special causes

Good

Taking action when you shouldn’t

No time spent looking for special causes, focused on common causes

Not taking action when you should

Good

Process Control

Time

Time

Out of Control

(special causes present)

In Control

(special causes eliminated)

A Few Words about Outliers

• Outliers are not necessarily good or bad.

• They are simply different.

• They provide the opportunity to learn.

• Send them to the laboratory.

Red Beads and Life

Vacancies: 10

6 Willing Workers

2 Inspectors

1 Inspector General

1 Recorder

4 Paddles, 2 Sets of Beads

Paddle Set of Beads Average

1 A 11.3

2 B 9.6

3 B 9.2

4 B 9.4

“No one could project what average will cumulate

for any given paddle.”

A Most Important Lesson

Knowledge of the proportion of red beads in the

incoming material provides no basis for predicting

the proportion red in the output.

The work loads were not drawn by random

numbers from the supply.

They were drawn by mechanical sampling.

Classic Juran…

“Make no small plans!” Dr. Joseph M. Juran, 1989, p. 351

The Juran Trilogy® Diagram

Robust Design

Genichi Taguchi

Of his many contributions,

he identified three distinct

phases in robust design:

Concept Design

Parameter Design

Tolerance Design

Improvement in Life Expectancy*

(All Americans)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Lif

e E

xp

ecta

ncy (

ye

ars

)

*Source: National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 48, No.18

Spanish influenza

The influence of WE Deming

The Genius of…

Waloddi Weibull

Invented a tool that

allows data itself to

define the shape of

the distribution.

Failure Data for Five Components

Time to Failure

(in hours)

Median Rank

Values

(percentage)

452 13.0

583 31.5

820 50.0

915 68.5

1202 87.0

Data on Weibull Probability Paper

Reliability Bath Tub Curve

Time

Likelihood

of Failure

Run-in Design Life Wear Out

b < 1 b = 1 b > 1

The Math Looks Complicated…

Failure Function

Weibull Probability Function

b b

b

b

ttttf ,exp)()(1

b b

b

b

tdttttFt

,exp)()(1

Data Defines the Distribution’s Shape

bb lnln)(1

1lnln

ttF

bmxy

b

Statistical Function of Wide Applicability

Correcting the Event Period

-

0.00500

0.01000

0.01500

0.02000

0.02500

0.03000

0.03500

0.04000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64

p Chart for Warranty Claims by Week

Series1

Series2

Series3

The event periods that were the basis of my

original analysis were not true.

The Genius of Hans J. Bajaria

Dr. Hans Bajaria synthesized the work of the masters into a practical and effective structure to identify and resolve problems.

3 Questions from Hans Bajaria

1. Is the process unstable?

If so, find and eliminate assignable causes first.

2. Is there too much variation?

If so, take action to reduce variation second.

3. Is the process off target?

If so, shift the process on target and you’re done.

Hans Bajaria’s Synthesis

Number of Accidents 6 8 5 3 8 15 4 5 7

Hernias / /// / / /// //// // / /

Sprained Ankles / / / / //

Eye Injuries // // / /

Severe Cuts / / /

Back Injuries // /////

Smoke Inhalation / / // /

Burns / / // / /

Broken Bones // / / //

Injury Type 9 / / /

Injury Type 10

Proportion

of Accidents to Runs

.05

.08

.04

.03

/

.06

.09

/

.04

.05

.06

Number of Runs 120 100 125 100 133 167 100 100 117

p Chart for Proportion Defective

.05 .08 .04 .03 .06 .09 .04 .05 .06

0.09

0.08

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0

0.10

Sample Size

Proportion of

Accidents

100120 100 100100167133125 117

0.11

0.12

0.13 UCL = p + 3 ((p (1-p) / n) ^ ½) = .056 + .069 = .125

p = .056

n

ppp

13 Limits Control

LCL = 0

c Chart for Number of Defects

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

10

Accidents per Week 86 3 541585 7

11

12

13

14

15

16

cc 3 Limits Control

UCL = c + 3 (( c )^1/2) = 6.8 + 7.8 = 14.6

LCL = 0

c = 6.8

Four Conceptual Models of Failure

Stress vs. Strength

Damage vs. Endurance

Challenge vs. Response

Tolerance vs. Requirements

Ralph Evans, PhD

A New Matrix to Identify Causes

Synthesis by Mark A. Morris

Advice from Dorian Shainin

By systematically

identifying where the

problem is not, you will

find where the problem

is more quickly.

A quote from John Dewey

A problem

well defined

is half solved.

A quote from Albert Einstein

The formulation of a

problem is far more

often essential than

its solution…

Isn’t It True? You Get What You Reward…

Lack of quality planning leads to wonderful

opportunities for creative problem solving. Mark A. Morris

The Goal

• In 2012, we studied The Goal

by Eli Goldratt.

• Jonah the consultant helped

save the plant, and careers too.

• In this story Jonah never suggests solutions.

• Instead he asks thought provoking questions.

Socratic Method

• Goldratt and Fox wrote The Goal as a novel.

• They intentionally give readers time to figure out

solutions before Alex and his team find them.

• The authors want their characters and their

readers to own their solutions.

Seven Habits…

Seek first to understand,

before you ask to be understood. Stephen Covey

A Parting Thought…

I am always doing

that which I cannot do,

in order that I may

learn how to do it. Pablo Picasso

A poem from Rudyard Kipling

I keep six honest serving men,

(they taught me all I knew)

Their names are

What and Why and When

and How and Where and Who.

from Just So Stories (1902)

Questions?

Thank You