Lewis H. Ziska, USDA-ARS Thanks to: Linda Ford, MD American Lung Association, Omaha, NE James...

Lewis H. Ziska, USDA-ARS

Thanks to:

Linda Ford, MD American Lung Association, Omaha, NE

James Straka, PhD, Macalester College, St. Paul, MN

David Frenz, MD, the Bethesda Clinic, St. Paul, MN

Jonathan Patz, MD Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD

Dennis Gebhard, Multidata Inc., St. Paul, MN

Paul Epstein, MD, Harvard, Boston, MA

Climate Change, and Public Health: the

Botanical Perspective.

Maryland Department of Natural Resources, February 19, 2009

Atmospheric COAtmospheric CO22

So what if CO2 goes up?

I. An indirect effect of rising carbon dioxide: warmer temperatures.

Gas %

Nitrogen (N2) 78.1

Oxygen (O2) 20.1

Argon (Ar) 0.93

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

0.04 up to 0.100

Water (H2O) 0.05 to 1.00

No H2O and CO2? Surface temperature would be –18oC. With H2O and CO2? Surface temperature is 15oC.

H2O vs. CO2

Poles

Deserts

Winter

If water vapor is high, it will be the dominant warming gas….little effect of CO2

If water vapor is low, adding CO2 will increase the surface temperature.

Equator

latitude

Greenland is melting

Greenland ice loss rate doubled in last 10 yrs

CO2, warming and public health.

• Changes in range of insect or rodent borne diseases.

• Changes in water or seafood borne diseases.

• Increasing ground-level ozone, and respiratory ailments.

• Contamination of drinking water due to excessive flooding.

• Heat-related deaths / fewer cold related.

So what if CO2 goes up?, Part II, direct impacts

Carbon dioxide is the source of carbon for photosynthesis, and consequently for 99% of all life.

CO2 + H2O + light O2 + organic C + chemical energy

Nutrients, H2O

CO2

Food, GloriousFood!

Plants are Important.

“People who imagined that life on earth consisted of animals moving against a green background, seriously misunderstood what they were seeing. That green background was busily alive. Plants grew, moved, twisted and turned, fighting for [resources]; and they interacted continuously with animals—discouraging some with bark and thorns, poisoning others, and feeding still others with pollen and seeds. It was a complex, dynamic process…one which most people didn’t understand. “

Michael Crichton, Page 86, “Jurassic Park”

Plants are necessary for the flow of energy and carbon through ecosystems. 90% of all living matter consists of plant life.

With the exception of a few subterranean organisms, if plantsdid not exist, life would not exist.

Plant growth however is dependent on four physical inputs.

Any perturbation in these inputs will alter all living systems.

But isn’t more plant growth desirable?

“We are living in an increasingly lush environment of plants and animals as a result of the carbon dioxide increase. This is a wonderful and unexpected gift from the industrial revolution.” WSJ

CO2 is a VERY smart molecule.

Green is not always good.

All life will be affected not only by temperature, but by the increase in carbon dioxide of and by itself.

What are the implications for Weed Biology? Specifically:

Crops and weeds

Invasive weeds

Public Health.

How can plants affect public health?How can plants affect public health?Some direct effects:Some direct effects:

Allergies / Asthma:Allergies / Asthma:Contact dermatitis:Contact dermatitis:Poison/Toxicology:Poison/Toxicology:

1. CO1. CO22, plants and allergies, plants and allergies

Principle Fall Allergen

~35 million sufferers

Common ragweed.

Determining Ragweed Pollen Determining Ragweed Pollen

ProductionProduction

Sampling pollen from ragweed catkins.

Response of common ragweed to CO2

0

100

200

300

400

280280 600600370370

g plantg plant-1-1

Chamber Study, USDAChamber Study, USDAFunctional Plant BiologyFunctional Plant Biology 27:893-898 27:893-898Functional Plant BiologyFunctional Plant Biology 32:667-670 32:667-670

• Pollen Production

280 ppm 4.8 g

370 ppm 10.9 g*

600 ppm 20.5 g*

Antigen Amb a1 ELISA / mg protein

280 ppm 4490

370 ppm 5290

600 ppm 8180*

Ragweed in real life

All this is “blue-sky” hypothetical &*^$%# anyway. It won’t happen in real-life, and even if it does, temperature and carbon dioxide effects are a long ways away.

Mauna Loa, “Official” CO2 data.

10,000 feet on a mountaintop in Hawaii.

Is the rise in COIs the rise in CO22 the same the same everywhere?everywhere?

Change in average day-time CO2 concentration (ppm) from downtown Baltimore to an organic (rural) farm.

300

400

500

Farm Park City

386.2402.2

455.5

Is the increase in temperature the same?

• Change in average daily temperature (oC) from downtown Baltimore to an organic (rural) farm (2002).

15

17

19

21

23

Farm Park City

19.1

20.7

18.6

Urbanization and climate change. Daytime Carbon Dioxide (ppm)

Location 2002 2003 2004 2005___________________________________

Rural 381 373 380 386Suburban 394 370 400 413Urban 458 520 456 458____________________________________

Daytime Air Temperature (oC)

Location 2002 2003 2004 2005___________________________________

Rural 25.1 22.5 24.4 25.3Suburban 25.8 23.9 25.3 26.0Urban 26.6 24.7 26.3 27.2____________________________________

Night-time Temperature (oC)

Location 2002 2003 2004 2005___________________________________

Rural 19.6 18.0 19.0 19.0Suburban 19.3 18.6 19.2 19.3Urban 22.3 21.3 22.5 22.7____________________________________

Change in season length (days)

2002 2003 2004 2005___________________________________

Urban-Rural 36 41 52 39____________________________________

Day of year

210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245

Ave

rag

e d

ayti

me

CO

2 d

iffe

ren

ce (

urb

an-r

ura

l)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Average = 89.0+9.9

Are these differences consistent?

What about other meteorological variables?

8-h daytime ozone. 2004 season

CO2 differencesAugust, 2004

Overall: Urban-induced increases in carbon dioxide, air temperature and growing season are consistent with most IPCC near-term scenarios. With the exception of N deposition, othervariables did not differ consistency, but N low relative to soil N.

And if it isn’t…Can we study the effects of climate change NOW?

Placing four 2x2 m2 plots Near downtown Baltimore.Use same soil and seed bankin suburban and rural locations.

2006

Got ragweed?

Urban locale had longer growing season (milder winter), warmertemperatures, and more carbon dioxide.

Allergenic pollen producers, Northeast Weeds:Season: May through September

Ragweed (A. atemissiifolia) English plantain (Plantago lanceolata)Giant Ragweed (A trifida) Russian thistle (Salsola kali) Marsh elder (Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)Pigweed (A. retroflexus) Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)Mugwort (Artemisia vulgaris)

Allergenic pollen producers, Mid-Western Weeds:Season: May through October

Ragweed (A. atemissiifolia) Pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus)Giant Ragweed (A. trifida) English plantain (Plantago lanceolata)Russian thistle (Salsola kali) Fireweed (Kochia scoparia)Marsh elder (Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)

Allergenic pollen producers, Southern Weeds:Season: April through November

Ragweed (A. atemissiifolia) Pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus)Giant Sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) English plantain (Plantago lanceolata)Marsh elder (Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)Yellow Dock (Rumex crispus) Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)

Allergenic pollen producers, Western Weeds:Season: April through November

Ragweed (A. atemissiifolia) Pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus)Giant Sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) English plantain (Plantago lanceolata)Russian thistle (Salsola kali) Fireweed (Kochia scoparia)Marsh elder (Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)Yellow Dock (Rumex crispus) Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)

Fungal decomposition of plants.

Alternaria alternata has been associated with a number of respiratory problems such as rhinitis, asthma, allergic dermatitis and allergic sinusitis. The spores are the cause of the allergic reactions.

For timothy grass grown from 300-600 ppm CO2, risingcarbon dioxide levels results in reduced leaf N levels.Initial data suggest that increased C:N ratios couldincrease the rate of sporulation.

-20000000

200000040000006000000

80000001000000012000000

1400000016000000

CO2 concentration

spor

es/g

dry

leaf

tiss

ue

first runsecond run

2. CO2, plants and contact dermatitis

Can rising CO2 alter plant based dermatitis?

The Duke University FACE Site: State of the Art.

Poison ivy at Duke Face ring.

Poison ivy plants grow faster at elevated CO2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10370 ul/l

570 ul/l

Poison ivy allergenicity

Elevated CO2

Ambient CO2

saturated monoene monoenedienetriene

Un

satu

rate

d:S

atu

rate

d C

og

en

ers

0

5

10

15

20

**

Ambient Elevated

Duke University, USDA study, PNAS 103:9086-9089

3. CO2, plants and poison

Castor bean (Ricinus communis), produces ricin, one of the deadliest poisons known to man. Increasing CO2 by 300 ppm results in a 34% increase in photosynthesis (Grimer and Komor 1999).

Vanaja et al. (2008) reports large response to rising CO2.

How can plants affect public health? How can plants affect public health?

Some indirect effectsSome indirect effects::

•Food and Nutrition.

•Medicines / Narcotics.

•Disease vector biology.

•Pesticide use.

CO2 and human nutrition.

% Flour protein from wheat lines released during the 20th century.

Recent cooperative work with NIH indicates an increase in omega-3-fatty acids in mung bean with rising CO2.

Temperature / Flowering

23 26 29 32 35 38 41 440

25

50

75

100

Mean air temperature (°C)

Rice

See

d-s

et (

%)

Dry bean

Peanut

Rice and temperature

Water and food security

Agriculture and

water

• Today, approximately 230,000 people were added to the population. Three cereals, rice, wheat and corn feed 50% of that population. These cereals in turn are heavily dependent on irrigation.

• ~80% of freshwater is used in irrigation.

• How will we maintain food supply with less water?

0

20

40

60

80

100

Paddy Remainder

Rice production

The “Big Three” at present.

Year

1970 1980 1990 2000Glo

bal r

ough

ric

e pr

oduc

tion

(000

000

t)

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

1980s: 3.1% per year1990s: 1.4% per year2000s: 0.8% per year

Rice

YEAR

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010200

300

400

500

600G

lob

al w

hea

t p

rod

uct

ion

(00

0 00

0 t)

1980s: 2.9% per year1990s: 0.9% per year2000s: 0.4% per year

Wheat

Only maize has kept pace with population.

1980s: 2.2% per year1990s: 2.5% per year2000s: 3.5% per year

Maize

Energy Independence?

Maize is a heavy user of nitrogen fertilizer. This comes fromnatural gas (Haber process, N2NH4NO3).

Russia: 47,570 billion ft3 Iran: 26,370 billion ft3 U.S.A.: 5,600

2a. CO2, plants and medicine

________________________________________________________________Drug Action/Clinical Use Species_________________________________________________________________

Acetyldigoxin Cardiotonic Digitalis lanataAllyl isothiocyanate Rubefacient Brassica nigraAtropine Antichotinergic Atropa belladonnaBerberine Bacillary dysentery Berberis vulgarisCodeine Analgesic, antitussive Papaver somniferumDanthron Laxative Cassia spp.L-Dopa Anti-Parkinson Mucuna spp.Digitoxin Cardiotonic Digitalis purpureaEphedrine Antihistamine Ephedra sinicaGalanthamine Cholinesterase inhibitor Lycoris squamigeraKawain Tranquilizer Piper methysticumLapachol Anti-cancer, anti-tumor Tabebuia spp.Ouabain Cardiotonic Strophanthus gratusQuinine Anti-malarial Cinchona ledgerianaSalicin Analgesic Salix albaTaxol Anti-tumor Podophyllum peltatumVasicine Cerebral stimulant Vinca minorVincristine Anti-leukemic agent Catharanthus roseus_________________________________________________________________

Approximately 15% of all current pharmaceuticals in developed countries are derived solely from plants (85% in undeveloped countries).

Alkaloids derived from plants

AtropineCaffeine

Cocaine

CodeineMorphine

Nicotine

Scopolamine Thebaine

Atropine and scopolamineAtropine and scopolamine

2b. CO2b. CO22, plants and narcotics., plants and narcotics.

Effects unknown Growth increases. Anecdotal evidence

Papaver setigerum DC.Papaver setigerum DC. (Wild poppy) (Wild poppy)

Quantify growth and alkaloid production to carbon dioxide

300 ppm ~1950

400 ppm Current

500 ppm ~2050

600 ppm ~2090

Papaver setigerum

Ab

ove

gro

un

d b

iom

ass

at m

atu

rity

(g

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Lea

f ar

ea a

t m

atu

rity

(cm

2)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

300 400 500 600

CO2 concentration (µmol mol-1)

P. setigerum is sensitive to even small (100 ppm) increases in carbon dioxide.

Greatest relative stimulation has occurred with recent (last few decades) CO2 increase.

Averages P-value

Variable 300 400 500 600 CO2 Effect____________________________________________________________

Capsule No. 14.6 29.4 32.9 52.1 ***

Capsule Wt. (g) 1.44 2.47 3.55 4.30 ***

Latex (mg) 97 198 259 363 ***

Morphine (%) 2.20 2.34 2.56 2.67 0.06

Concentration of other alkaloids did not increase with increasing CO2.

3-4 x increase in alkaloid production in wild poppy with recent and projected CO2 increases. Accepted in Climatic Change

Nicotine production

Nic

oti

ne p

er

pla

nt

(mg

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Col 1 vs Col 2 Plot 1 RegrCol 1 vs Col 4 Plot 2 RegrCol 1 vs Col 6 Plot 3 Regr

Days after sowing (DAS)

25 30 35 40 45 50 550

20

40

60

80

100

120

294 µatm.378 µatm.690 µatm.

A.

B.

Nicotine Concentration

294 ppm 4.7 µg g-1

378 ppm 4.4 µg g-1

690 ppm 3.6 µg g-1

3. CO3. CO22, plants and disease vectors, plants and disease vectorsplants are not vectors per se, but:plants are not vectors per se, but:

CO2 / temperature

Hanta virus Nectar & pollen

4. CO4. CO22, plants and pesticide usage., plants and pesticide usage.

As carbon dioxide increases, glyphosate efficacy is reduced

Why can’t we just control these weeds?

Ambient CO2 Future CO2

Canada thistle: Best of the worst.

3 years of field trials at +250 ppm above ambient.

A synopsis of COA synopsis of CO22 impacts on herbicide efficacy impacts on herbicide efficacy

Efficacy is reduced in a number of studies. The basis for the reduction isnot entirely known. However, if more pesticides are needed to kill weeds, thenmore trace chemicals are likely in theenvironment.

Climate change, plants and public Climate change, plants and public healthhealth

Direct EffectsDirect EffectsAllergiesAllergies

Contact dermatitisContact dermatitis

ToxicologyToxicology

Indirect EffectsIndirect EffectsNutritionNutrition

MedicineMedicine

Spread of disease Spread of disease vectorsvectors

Increased pesticide Increased pesticide use.use.

What is USDA doing?

• In the last 6 years have lost one full time scientist, and two three technicians.

• Budget cut every year for the last 6 years. The new farm bill has no money for studying climate change and agriculture. No stimulus funding.

• National Program 204, Global warming and agriculture was eliminated in May of 2008. (although some work may continue)