View
3
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
ADVISORY COUNCIL
January 10, 2018 9:00 a.m.
Welcome & Roll Call Dr. Joseph C. Rallo, LaSTEM Advisory Council Chair
Susie Schowen, LaSTEM Advisory Council Vice-Chair
2
LaSTEM Workforce Workgroup
Dr. Lisa Vosper, Workforce Workgroup Chair
3
LaSTEM Workforce Presentation &
Discussion Via Skype: Jonathan Rockwell, Gallup
4
Accurately defining STEM Occupations
Jonathan Rothwell, PhDSenior Economist Gallup
LaSTEM Advisory Council Meeting Skype Presentation
January 10, 2018
Overview
1) Why we need a new measure of the STEM labor force and what that looks like
2) Analysis of trends based on such a definition
Problems with Current Definitions of STEM Occupations
1. No agreement among federal agencies• The NSF uses “Science and Engineering” labor force which roughly
corresponds to occupations common to workers with a bachelor’s degree in science or engineering fields.
• 2012 BLS task force did not advance a single definition, nor fully endorse the NSF basis.
• Dept of Commerce used only part of the NSF definition and added a few occupations to it
2. Arbitrary standards.• Not based on knowledge or skill requirements, otherwise doctors would be
included• Not based on research and development activity, otherwise most computer
workers would be excluded, as would social scientists• Professional researcher bias? Computer machine programmers and all blue
collar occupations are excluded, but any computer worker in an office settings is counted.
A STEM occupation is one that requires an extraordinary level of knowledge in one or more core STEM fields.
Based on data from O*NET (Dept. of Labor project)
New Brookings definition of STEM
Advantages over conventions definition include: rigor, alignment with educational curricula, self-correcting, objective
For background on O*NET see: National Research Council Panel to Review the Occupational Information Network (O*NET), “A Database for a Changing Economy: Review of the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) (Washington: The National Academies Press, 2010); Norman Peterson and others, “Understanding work using the Occupational Information Network (O*NET): Implications for practice and research,” Personnel Psychology 54 (2) (2001), 451–492.
9
The Six Core STEM Domains in O*NET Knowledge Survey and Their Survey Anchors
Highest Knowledge = 7Least Knowledge =1
Computers and Electronics
1 3 6
Operate a VCR to watch a pre-recorded training tape
Use a word processor
Create a program to scan computer disks for viruses
Scales for Science (Physics, Chemistry, Bio), Computers, Engineering, and Math
Composite STEM Score o,k = E [(Raw Score o,k) - (Mean Score) o,k]
Does this ONET Method Work?
1. High Correlation with occupational median wages—from 2012 BLS OES:
• Correlation is 0.56 for STEM Score vs. 0.36 for NSF Science and Engineering binary variable
2. High Correlation with occupational knowledge—taken from ACT Work Keys scores, aggregated by occupation:
• Correlation with ACT composite score is 0.67 for STEM score vs 0.52 for NSF
• Correlation with ACT math score is 0.57 for STEM Score vs 0.47 for NSF. Math knowledge score correlation is 0.64; Economics and finance is 0.39; Law knowledge score is 0.31 English knowledge score is 0.31
Major Occupational Categories Sorted by STEM Score, with Share of Jobs that are STEM, and Share of U.S. STEM Jobs, 2011
High-STEM, Percentage of
JobsShare of U.S.
High-STEM Jobs
Architecture and engineering 100% 9%
Life, physical, and social science 87% 4%
Healthcare practitioner and technical 76% 22%
Computer and mathematical science 100% 13%
Installation, maintenance, and repair 53% 10%
Management 27% 6%
Construction and extraction 40% 8%
Education, training, and library 9% 3%
Business and financial operations 42% 10%
Farming, fishing, and forestry 8% 0%
Production 23% 7%
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 16% 1%
Sales and related 0% 0%
Legal 0% 0%
Source: Brookings analysis of O*NET and OES, 2011.
Source: Brookings analysis of O*NET V18 and 2012 American Community Survey, via IPUMS. Core STEM occupations are: Computer and Mathematical occupations, Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations, and Architecture and Engineering Occupations, all defined at 2-digit SOC level.
3%5%
12%
30%
13%
17% 16%
4%6%
1%
20%
42%
9%
15%
6%
1%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Educational Attainment of Workers in Brookings STEM Occupations and Core NSF STEM Occupations, 2012
Brookings STEMCore STEM Occupations
17% 19%24% 24%
32%
49%40%
50%
-2%
-30%
19%29%
49%
66%75%
108%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Within-Education Group Earnings Premium for Brookings and NSF-defined STEM Workers by Educational Attainment, 2012
Brookings STEMCore STEM Occupations
Source: Brookings analysis of O*NET V18 and 2012 American Community Survey, via IPUMS. Core STEM occupations are: Computer and Mathematical occupations, Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations, and Architecture and Engineering Occupations, all defined at 2-digit SOC level. Premium calculated as average earnings for workers of any age in each STEM-educational cohort divided by U.S. average earnings for all workers in the educational group less one.
Literature on Sub-bachelor’s STEM contribution to innovation
During industrial revolution:Ross Thomson, Structures of Change in the Mechanical Age: Technological Innovation in
the United States, 1790 to 1865 (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2009); Kenneth L. Sokoloff and B. Zorina Khan, “The Democratization of Invention during Early
Industrialization: Evidence from the United States, 1790-1846,” Journal of Economic History 50(2) (1990): 363-378;
Jacob Schmookler, “Inventors Past and Present,” Review of Economics and Statistics39(3) (1957): 321-333.
Presently in terms of lower product defects, higher capacity utilization and efficiency, and R&D quality:
Philip Toner, “Workforce Skills and Innovation: An Overview Of Major Themes In The Literature” (Paris: OECD, 2011)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Wage Premium for STEM Skills, Controlling for Experience, Education, and Sex, 1950-2012
Standard Deviation inOccupational STEM Skill
Analysis of data from Census Bureau via Integrated Public Use Microdata Series and O*NET. For methods, see Jonathan Rothwell, “Hidden STEM Economy,” (Brookings Institution, 2012).
1% 1%
13%
4%5%
10%9%
6%
4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Bachelor's degree orhigher
Some college High school or less
Share of U.S. Workers in STEM Occupations by Education, 1950-2011
195019802011
-4,622,206 -4,695,300
702,926
1,377,266
449,584
-5,000,000
-4,000,000
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
Less than diploma Diploma Some college Bachelor's Post-bachelor's
Change in Manufacturing Employment by Education Level, 1980-2013
Change 1980-2013
Source CPS: -9.3 million for sub-post-secondary; +2.5 million for post-secondary
3%2%
0%
4%
1%
-2%
1%
0%
-3%-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Bachelor's Degree Some College High School or Less
Annualized Growth Rates in Net Employment by Education for U.S. Economy, Tech and Manufacturing
Sectors, 1980-2011
U.S. EconomyTech SectorManufacturing
Duration of Advertised Vacancies in Days by Level of STEM and Educational Requirements, 2013-Q1
Median duration
Mean duration
Duration at the 80th
percentile of Advertisem
ents
Number of Ads
Occupations requiring STEM knowledgeGraduate degree 20 47 90 31,045
Bachelor's degree 13 39 75 329,196Some college or Associate's 8 40 77 87,835
High school or less 3 33 64 32,827Occupations not requiring STEM knowledge
Graduate degree 7 42 84 26,056Bachelor's degree 7 34 67 216,499
Some college or Associate's 4 32 59 53,408High school or less 4 32 61 414,915
All Ads 6 35 70 1,192,438Source: Brookings analysis of data from Burning Glass. Sample is all vacancies advertised online
through company websites in the first quarter of 2013-Q1. STEM and educational requirements are based on analysis of data from O*NET.
Conversation With the LaSTEM Advisory Council
Q & A
JONATHAN ROTHWELLSenior Economist202.715.3091901 F St NWWashington DC 20004USA
GALLUP®
Women and Diversity in the
STEM Workforce Latoya Bullard-Franklin, Million Women Mentors
22
LaSTEM Workforce Presentation &
Discussion Dr. Stephen Barnes, LSU Economics and Policy
Research
23
STEM and Louisiana’s WorkforceStephen R. Barnes, PhD
High Demand Occupations
High Demand Occupations: New Approach
• Occupational projections • Updated annually upon receipt of new employment
data• Two-step process:o Projections by Industryo Projections by Occupation
• Star-Rating System • Updated annually based on new demand projections,
wage data, and openings datao Ratings by Occupation
High Demand Occupations: New Approach
Star RatingsStar Ratings
Short-term Outlook
Long-term Outlook
Current Job Openings
Wages
Projected job openings
Projected percent growth in total
number employed
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Star Ratings Reflect Unique Regional Demand
Stars and STEM
• STEM not explicitly incorporated into assessment of employer demand
• Highly-rated occupations more likely to have strong STEM components
• Among all occupations, 40% have a positive STEM rating• Among 4- and 5-star occupations, 58% have a positive STEM rating• Consider importance of STEM education/training within
occupational classifications: strong latent demand for STEM preparation
• STEM has important implications when considering workforce as a driver of economic growth
30
Discussion
barnes@lsu.edu
The STEM Workforce Gap &
Next Steps for LaSTEM
Susie Schowen, LED FastStart
31
32
Economic Driver Jobs
Skilled Workforce
Growth of Population and
Personal Wealth
Professional and Cultural Jobs
Growth and Reinvestment of
Revenues
WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT DRIVES A CYCLE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXPANSION
33
ANALYSES IDENTIFYING HIGH-WAGE, HIGH-DEMAND JOBS; ECONOMIC DRIVER JOBS; AND GAPS BETWEEN SUPPLY AND
DEMAND INFORM STRATEGIC DECISIONS
34
1. Identify Tier 1 (Economic Driver) Industries: Produce things of value and sell them outside the region Growth is limited primarily by availability and quality of workforce Wages are typically above average Examples: Manufacturing, Utilities, Industrial Construction, Software
Development
2. Identify Tier 2 Industries: industries that provide services essential to well-functioning, economically vibrant communities. Examples: Healthcare, Education, Police and Fire Services
3. Identify occupations critical to Tier 1 and Tier 2 industries
4.Assign Tier values to 4- and 5-Star Jobs
Tier 1 Jobs are 4- and 5-Star jobs employed in significant numbers by Tier 1 economic driver industries, Tier 2 Jobs are 4- and 5-Star Jobs employed in significant numbers by Tier 2 industries, and Tier 3 Jobs are all other 4- and 5-Star Jobs.
LED FASTSTART TIER JOBS ANALYSIS IDENTIFIES WORKERS CRITICAL TO ECONOMIC DRIVER INDUSTRIES
35
Annual Job Openings
Annual Completions
Gap(or Surplus)
LED GAP ANALYSIS COMPARES DEMAND FOR 4- AND 5-STAR JOBS TO ANNUAL EDUCATIONAL COMPLETERS
36
LED’S GAP ANALYSIS DEMONSTRATES THE NEED FOR STRATEGIC, INTENTIONAL FOCUS TO CLOSE THE GAP IN ECONOMICALLY
CRITICAL FIELDS
Critical Fields in Tier 1 (Economic Driver) Industries
Additional Annual Completers
Needed
Computer and Information Science 743Cybersecurity and Data Analytics 66Engineering and Engineering Technology (including Process Technology) 434Skilled Crafts: Industrial Construction, Production, and Maintenance 3004Logistics and Operations Management 57Accounting Technology/Technician and Bookkeeping. 170Management Information Systems, General. 13Total 4487
Note: ALL Undersupplied Tier 1 fields are heavily STEM-intensive. Almost all Tier 1 fields in general are STEM Fields.
37
LOUISIANA MUST ALSO ENSURE THAT CRITICAL TIER 2 INDUSTRIES ARE ADEQUATELY SUPPLIED
Critical Fields in Tier 2 (Essential Services) Industries
Additional Annual
Completers Needed
Education 257Criminal Justice and Fire Services 626Healthcare 1512Total 2395
Note: Educational institutions may have difficulties hiring STEM-qualified instructors due to issues of pay rather than supply. Such difficulties will not be reflected in the Gap Analysis.
38
FOCUSING ON UNDERSUPPLIED TIER 1 AND TIER 2 FIELDS BENEFITS STUDENTS AND COMMUNITIES AS WELL AS
EMPLOYERS
39
REDUCING THE GAP REQUIRES SPECIFIC INCENTIVES AND STRATEGIC ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES
40
TECHNICAL NOTES
41
THIS ANALYSIS HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR EDUCATION PROVIDERS, STUDENTS, AND JOB
SEEKERS
LaSTEM Update
Objective CurrentStatus
Actions Needed
SuccessIndicators
Timeline
(For Example)• New
Curriculums• Marketing
Campaigns• Policy Changes
• Proposal to council by xx/2018
• Accepted by council xx/2018
42
After objectives are established, what are the next steps? Each box corresponds to a specific goal Each workgroup will submit their objectives for approval
Workgroup SMART Objectives
LaSTEM Update Sample SMART Objectives – Workforce Workgroup
43
Objective CurrentStatus
Actions Needed
SuccessIndicators
Timeline
5.1 – Triple the # of completers in computer science by 2025
5.1 (a) – Triple the # of bachelor degree graduates from 303 to 909 by 2025
5.1(b) – Triple the # of associate degree graduates in computer science-related fields by 2025
Current production of computer science graduates is insufficient to meet projected needs.
This problem is not localized to LA, thus recruitment outside of the state is a challenge.
(For Example)• Investment in
faculty• Faculty
recruitment and retention
• Investment in student recruitment and retention, including scholarships and wraparound services
• Expansion of the K12 pipeline in collaboration w/K12 Workgroup
• Number of completersincreasing over time
• 2025
STEM UpdateReport Out on K12 SMART Objectives
Dr. Jeanne Burns, K12 Workgroup Chair
44
LaSTEM Update Data & SMART Objectives - PK-12 Workgroup
45
Objective CurrentStatus
Actions Needed
SuccessIndicators
Timeline
(For Example)• New
Curriculums• Marketing
Campaigns• Policy Changes
• Proposal to council by xx/2018
• Accepted by council xx/2018
STEM Showcase Mr. John Fraboni – Founder & CEO, Operation Spark
46
what we dotrain software engineers, fast
...very fast, 8 times faster than universities
why we do itpeople need opportunity, industry needs
talent
...like, yesterday!
people need opportunity
access to upward mobility
industry needs talent
+5.3 demand, +2000 open jobs, and now DXC
a software economy
4.3 other jobs created, ability to innovate
did you write a novel?
coding is 21st Century basic literacy
how we do it?
Immersion & High School to High Wage
Immersion
$60,000Average salary
100%Job placement
Kendall after his second job offer
High School to High Wage
200 enrolled
60% of grads are African American 30 % are young women
Students from 80% of high schools in Orleans Parish
(6 parishes total)
Funded startup of program. Thanks!
Largest Software Firm in NOLA Loves OS
(From actual job posting)
Fall 2018
Offer HS classes in Baton Rouge
Expansion Plans
Adult programs
Atlanta
questions?
Other Business, Wrap-Up & Next
StepsLaSTEM Next Steps: Timeline & Report to Legislature
Dr. Lisa Vosper, Workforce Workgroup Chair
60
LaSTEM Report “The council, through the Board of Regents, shall
submit a status report regarding all actions taken to implement the provisions of this Section, including metrics that measure the success of implementing council activities and initiatives and any recommendations for legislative or policy changes to the Senate Committee on Education and the House Committee on Education by January thirtieth of each year.” (Act 392)
61
Other Business & Wrap Up
Send feedback, suggestions and questions to lastem@regents.la.gov
Next meeting: Wednesday, February 7th at 9:00 a.m.Topics include: SMART Objectives Funding/Sustainability
62
63
Recommended