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7/28/2019 Lovell Co 2 Emissions
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CO2 Target Implications for
riculture
Scott LovellDairygold Co-op, Agri Trading
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Talk Summary• EU & Irish targets on Greenhouse Gases (GHG)
• Economists v Irish Agriculture
• Changing Ag practises to produce GHG offsets
-Dairy
-Beef
• What will be the Irish approach?
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EU Targets• March 2008 EU Leaders committed to
target of unilateral reduction in GHG of 20% by 2020 compared to 1990
targets by Dec 08.
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Ireland’s GHG story in 2007
14
1618
20
Agriculture
0
2
4
6
8
10
Million tons of CO2 equivalent produced
Transport
Industry
Residential
Waste
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EU burden sharing proposals
• Emissions traded sector (energy/heavy industry)
–Must drop by 21%
• Non ETS sector (agriculture, transport,
residential, some industry)
–Must drop by 10% across EU –Ireland given a higher target of -20% because
of high GDP
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What this means for Ireland
• Non ETS sector produced 48.3 m tonne
CO2 in 2005
• us rop y . m onne -
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What this means for Irish
Agriculture
• Reduction from 19.6 m tonne in 2005 to
17.05 in 2020
• Key questions
- an r s agr cu ure e ver s-How will achieving the reductions impact
on how agriculture develops during this
time
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Economics argue• Relevant measure is the impact on
income
-Gross Value Added (contribution to GDP)
- gr cu ure s per emp oyee s ow-High emissions from agriculture (28%)
relative to GDP ( 2.5%)
-Concerted effort of other sectors to
ensure agriculture takes the hit
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Why is Agriculture different
• There are some technological solutions in
Agriculture but global reduction in demand
• Reducing Irish herds are likely to increase
herds internationally, leaving no change to
the global problem
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GHG Policies targeted to reduce
production
• May nip farmer and agricultural industryconfidence in the bud to proceed with expansion
plans
• Emissions trading scheme for agriculture justified on grounds of global need for food
-Emissions trading needs to be international
-Needs to be confined to Agriculture i.e. no
trading with energy sector.
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Agricultural Emissions• Covers agriculture gases
–Methane from enteric fermentation
–Nitrous oxide from animal urine and dung
–Nitrous oxide from synthetic fertilisers
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Percentage of emissions as CH4, N2O and
CO2 from Agriculture in Ireland in 2005
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
Methane Nitrous Oxide Carbon
Dioxide
CO2 Equivalents
CSO 2007
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Changing Agricultural Practices
Potential to produce GHG offsets in 2
ways:1) Reduce Direct GHG Emissions
eques er ar on
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Sequester Carbon• No or low tillage
• Diversified rotations
• Winter cover crops
• Change soil inputs• Improved grazing practices
• Convert marginal agricultural land tograssland or forest
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Tillage
• Available bio-fuels from crops at present –Pure Plant Oil and Bio-diesel from oilseed rape
• Targets
–EU target of 5.75% by 2010 (now only 4%)
–National target of >10% by 2020
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Bio-fuels
• Expansion of existing first generationproduction would lead to possible CO2
.• Significantly greater production and GHG
mitigation potential from 2nd generation
Bio-fuels
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Energy Crops
• Significant Potential for GHG mitigationfrom energy crops
• e a ve y new crops. esearc nee e o –Optimise the agronomy of these species
–How best to farm these species
–Maximise energy & GHG benefit
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Forestry• Mitigation strategy using sinks is to
replace terrestrial carbon that’s been lost to the atmosphere from forests, vegetation
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Emissions of CO2 equivalents in
a Dairy System
35
4045
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
Enteric Fertiliser Conc Dung Fuel
%
Casey and Holden 2005
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Strategies for decreasing CH4
emissions from dairying
1.Increasing the length of the grazing season2.Increasing genetic merit
3.Improving pasture digestibility
.
5.Replacing roughage with concentrates
6.Increasing clover in swards
7.Replacing grass silage with maize/whole cropcereal silage
8.Other supplementary factors
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Increasing the length of the
grazing season
• Overall reduction of 0.17% in CO2
equivalents on-farm per one day increase
• A 70 day increase in grazing would result
in ~12% decrease in GHG emissions and
~€9500 greater profit (for a 50 cow herd)
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Increasing genetic merit• Decreases CH4 production per kg of milk in a
quota scenario because(a) less cows required to produce the quota
• If quotas are relaxed cow numbers will increase
but the absolute increase in methane output
from the national dairy herd would be lower
• A profitable strategy for dairy farmers
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Improving pasture quality
• Theoretically it should reduce enteric CH4
production because of a less fibrous
rumen fermentation
• Data so far not encouraging
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Feeding oils
• Feeding 4% oil in the diet would decreaseenteric methane output per cow per day by 23%
•
(a) Does the effect persist over a full lactation?
(b) What are the effects on cow performance?
(c) Is type of oil important –milk composition?(d) Is it a profitable strategy?
Beauchemin et al. 2008
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Replacing roughage with
concentrates
• Increased concentrate supplementation
has been shown to decrease enteric CH4
production
~
• Profitable?
Lovett et al. 2006
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Increasing clover in swards
• Legume based forages compared to
grasses reduce enteric CH4 production per unit of DMI possibly because of lower fibre
• Need further data
(a) Do they reduce diet digestibility?
(b) What proportion of the forage mixtureshould they constitute to be effective?
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Replacing grass silage with
maize/whole crop cereal silage
• In theory this strategy should reduce
enteric CH4 because of greater starchintake resulting in greater propionate
,
(less fermentation in the rumen)
• This strategy may be limited by other
negative environmental impacts
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Other supplementary factors with
potential to decrease enteric CH4
• Fumaric and Malic acid (substrates for
succinate/propionate)• Saponins (reduce protozoa)
• nzymes mprove re ges y• Yeast (?)
• Iononphores (antibacterial effects shifting
fermentation towards propionate)
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Nitrous Oxide• Sources:
–Soils –Animal excreta
–Legumes
–Fertiliser • Why is it important?
–GHG potential
–A loss of N from the soil/plant/animal system =reduced efficiency
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N2O mitigation options• Nitrification (DCD) & urease inhibitors in
pasture and tillage• Reduction in N excreted from animals
• over pas ures• Increasing N efficiency:
–Use of alternative land-spreading
strategies, timing of slurries, amendment
of slurries
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Additional Strategies for decreasing
CH4 emissions from beef cattle
1. Ad libitum concentrates to finishing cattle
2. 24-month steers 17-month bulls
3. 34-month steers 24-month steers4. Coconut oil in finishing concentrate
rations
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Ad libitum concentrates to
finishing cattle
• Indoor finishing heifers and steers• Increase rate of concentrates to ad libitum
.
• Finishing duration -33 days
• No increase in capital facilities (?)
• 3408 t CH4 less = 78384 t CO2 equivalent• Farm profit reduced (high cost of concentrates)
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24-month steers 17-month bulls• Spring-born male calves (100000)
• More concentrates; less grass (much) andsilage; lighter carcass
• 4 ess = 2 equ va en• Farm profit reduced (high cost of
concentrates)
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34-month steers 24-month steers• Spring-born late-maturing steers (63500)
• Less concentrates; less grass; less silage;lighter carcass
• 4 ess = 2 equ va en• Farm profit improved (cost reduction >
revenue reduction)
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Irish approach?• Follow New Zealand example-That are
practical in terms overall economics, product safety, and animal safety, and will
accepted by the international regulatory authorities and our customers.
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Irish approach?• Cut national herd?
• Irish beef, milk, grain etc. replaced byother countries
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Irish approach• Carbon tax in programme for government
• Revenue neutral?
• €20 per ton CO2 in 2010
• Rising to €38 per ton CO2 in 2020• €45-86 Dairy Cow
• €22-43 Beef Animal
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Conclusions• Challenging targets for Ireland
• Political agendas will push agriculture
• There are strategies available that will
ecrease em ss ons n agr cu ure• Need to ensure those that simultaneously
increase technical efficiency, farm profit
and GHG reductions are strategiesadopted
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