March Madness bet constructor - dpennock.comdpennock.com/talks/bracketology-hackday-10-2007b.pdf ·...

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• March Madnessbet constructor

• Bet on any team towin any game– Duke wins in Final 4

• Bet “exotics”:– Duke advances

further than UNC– ACC teams win at

least 5– A 1-seed will lose in

1st round

• Under the hood:• We can price &

accept most any bet!... keeping priceslogically consistent

• “Combinatoriallogarithmic marketscoring rule marketmaker withimportancesamplingapproximation”

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