Measuring Technical Progress: Evaluating Non-existent Scientific Instruments

Measuring Technical Progress: Evaluating Non-existent Scientific

Instruments

Center for Innovation, University of Maryland

Jerald Hage, Director

Jonathon Mote, Assistant Research Scientist

Aleia Clark, Assistant Researcher

The Hyperspectral Environmental Suite

Background

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) is planning to launch a new weather satellite in 2016 The Hyperspectral Environmental Suite of

instruments (HES) has been proposed as part of this project…it does not yet exist

Continual rejection from Congress Center for Innovation was asked to

provide advice on how to justify the instrument

The case of the Hyperspectral Sounder (HES)

What is a hyperspectral sounder? GOES-R: Geostationary operational

environmental satellite This is what we use to collect atmospheric

data that is used for weather prediction The HES is a new suite of instruments

designed to improve atmospheric data collection

Hyperspectral data v. multispectral data

Advanced Sounder(3074 channels)

GOES (18 channels)

•HES can image the entire hemisphere in one-sixth the time it takes for the current system.

•HES increases the number spectral bands to over 3,000

What is Hyperspectral Sounding?

Making a case for non-existent instruments

Congress demands data for the justification of new instruments such as the HES $700 million for HES GOES project already over $1 billion

How do you evaluate scientific instruments before they exist?

The need for a new approach

Not one, but two different sets of stakeholders with different interests

1. Executives at NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS)

– Internal divisions concerning merits of HES

2. Congress and OMB– Economic cost-benefit analysis indicate little

economic benefit

Four recommendations

1. Build a justification for different goals for the HES

2. Provide justification for scientific community

3. Different justification for congress, avoiding economic arguments

4. Collect analogue data to support arguments

Reframing the Justification

Place HES in evolutionary context of improving weather prediction Present HES as next self-evident step in

progress of weather prediction Present HES as a step towards

understanding global warming Co-opt those on both sides of the global

warming debate by providing necessary data on carbon cycles

Reframing the Justification: The National Weather Service

NWS v. HES NWS believes they are doing a good job HES represents a threat

Present HES as fulfilling different needs Support v. replacement Avoids direct confrontation with NWS

Near/now-casting of extreme weather events Short term, rapid climate changes

Nowcasting: HES as a new prediction tool

o February 2009 tornado outbreak in Oklahoma

oStrong supercells emerged at an unexpected time of the year

The nowcasting system predicted this 6 hours sooner than NWS forecasts.

Justification for NOAA

Connect HES to stated goals of strategic plan Goal of increasing tornado warning

times is part of NOAA’s plan Emphasize HES capabilities to meet

stated goal Finer spatial resolution Increased tornado warning time

Justification for Congress and OMB

Cost-benefit analyses lack benefits Costs of weather damage cannot be mitigated

by forecasting but by new building codes Focus on saving lives and avoiding injuries Secondary economic argument

costly failure to predict winter storms Example: Washington, DC. Closed for three

days in Winter of 2000 due to unpredicted storm

Collecting Evidence

Where do you get the evidence? Use available hyperspectral data to

supplement arguments AIRS: high-spectral resolution infrared

instrument funded by NASA Evidence from European hyperspectral

efforts German EnMap satellite Also demonstrates how US has fallen

behind

Thank you

For additional information or questions… Jerry Hage. Director, Center for Innovation

Jhage@socy.umd.edu Jonathon Mote. Senior Researcher

jmote@cba.siu.edu Aleia Clark. Research Assistant

alclark@socy.umd.edu