Medical Course of Action Tool Basics of using M-COAT

Medical Course of Action Tool

Basics of using M-COAT

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Agenda

• Introduction

• Agenda

• Learning Objectives

• Problem Statement

• Casualty Estimation Methods

• Medical Course of Action Tool

• Conclusion

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Learning Objectives

• To introduce the fundamental principles of casualty estimation and their effect on CHS planning.

• To teach the basics of using the Medical Course of Action Tool.

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Problem Statement• There is no Army approved automated tool

for conducting casualty estimation and CHS course of action planning for division and below operations– Kuhn Study / JCS Guide 3161 - Corps level

casualty estimation, can drill down to Division– FM 101-10-1 vol 2 - Division and above– ARI’s Commander’s Battle Staff Handbook -

Battalion level casualty estimation– Medical Analysis Tool (MAT)

• Corps and above Course of Action tool • Does NOT do Casualty Estimation

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Casualty Estimation for 1003V(US/Coalition Forces)

3981

1665

3605 8400

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

EstimatedNumber ofCasualties

Actual Number ofCasualties During"Shock and Awe"

TBC DNBI • Used numerous tools:– Medical Analysis Tool

– CJSC 3161, “Casualty Planner”

– US AMEDD DNBI Data

– FM 8-55

– Dupey Attrition Model -1% and 3%

– MCOAT (Medical Course of Action Tool)

– ACE (Army Casualty Estimate)

• 34 days (19 Mar – 20 April)

• “Shock and Awe” approx 1% for TBCs and 4% for DNBI

Source: BG Weightman AUSA Presentation 2004

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Casualty Estimation Methods• FM 101-10-1 Volume 2• OPLOG Planner• G1/G4 Battle Book• Logistics Estimation Worksheet• JCS Guide 3161• Dice• Agree to what the Commander says

• Modified Dupuy Method

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Background• M-COAT was originally developed in

Force Structure and Analysis at Fort Sam Houston, TX in 1998

• Confusion on whether it is a casualty estimation tool or medical workload tool – it is a medical workload tool

• Available on AKO 70B Toolkit (https://www.us.army.mil/suite/folder/540490).

• It is NOT AMEDD approved!!!!

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AKO Folder – 70B Toolkit

https://www.us.army.mil/suite/folder/540490

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M-COAT Overview• Based on COL Trevor

Dupuy’s casualty estimation method from Attrition (Nova Pub. 1995)

• Conventional casualty estimation method only

• Intended to serve as TACTICAL level Course of Action Tool

• Casualty Estimation is a critical Battle Staff Task– Medical Requirements– Personnel

Replacements

• Not intended to serve as a Force Structure or Programming tool!

A Low Cost, Low Risk, Near Term Solution

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M-COAT• Five Modules

– Casualty Estimation– Patient Flow- RTD and Evac Losses– Workload

• Evacuation Requirement and Capability• Operating Room Req. and Cap. • Hospital Bed Req. and Cap.

– Medical Supply– Basis of Allocation Rules

• Excel Spreadsheet Based

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M-COAT Casualty Estimation (con’t)

• Nine Factors that affect WIA rates:– Population at risk (PAR)

– Terrain (17 variables)

– Weather (12 variables)

– Posture (8 variables)*

– Strength (17 variables)

* Denotes areas that are modified from Dupuy’s original formula

– Opposition (31 variables)*

– Surprise (4 variables)

– Sophistication (15 variables)*

– Operational Form (5 variables)*

258,019,200 combinations x PAR

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M-COAT Casualty Estimation(con’t)

• Three Factors that affect DNBI– Population At Risk– Battlefield Location (5 variables)– Geographic Location (36 variables)

• Based on Force Structure and Analysis’ DNBI rates

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M-COAT Modules

• Patient Flow- Derived from TAA05 patient flow

• Workload - Uses FM 8-55 evacuation planning factors

• Class VIII consumption- Medical Resupply Sets, FST supplies, and Blood

• Basis of Allocation rules (MRI and MF2K)

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A Graphic ComparisonOf Various Casualty Estimation Methods

Casualty Estimate (Standard Error of the Estimate)Based on 13 Battles (1940-1991)

+1566%-1566% G1/G4 Battle Book

+1416%-1416% FM 101-10-1

+30%-30% M-COAT (Modified Dupuy)

+42%-42% Dupuy

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Medical Course of Action Tool

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Conventional vs. Operations Other Than War

M-COAT Conventional OOTW

Posture Offensive Recon - Screen

Opposition Significant Advantage

Overwhelming Advantage

Surprise Minor Substantial

Pattern of Operation

Disrupted Front Recon

Examples of the different settings that COULD be used

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Conventional vs. Operations Other Than War

M-COAT Conventional OOTW

Total Battle Casualties

189 65

WIA 161 55

KIA 28 10

Examples of the different settings that COULD be used

Example – Constant: 5k Soldiers, Urban, Dry Sunshine, No Sophistication AdvantageVary: Posture, Opposition, Surprise and Pattern of Operation

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Medical Course of Action Tool

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Airborne Operations

• Estimates the additional number of casualties that suffer injury from the jump

• Airborne casualties are in addition to conventional casualties

• Influences:– Day vs. Night (night has higher casualty rate)

– Equipment weight (greater weight increases casualties)

– Drop Zone Conditions (harder surface increase casualties)

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Creditable Casualty Range

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Conclusion

• One of several tools available for use by medical planners, it is NOT the only / best / preferred way

• Routinely updated and improved based on user feedback, tell me how to make it more useful

• Do not hesitate to call or email and ask questions

• Bruce.shahbaz@us.army.mil