Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies on EU and global level: Integrating agriculture,...

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies on EU and global level:

Integrating agriculture, land use, environmental and socio-economic aspects with EUruralis 2.0

Laxenburg, November 29th 2007

Henk Westhoek, Bas Eickhout and

Hans van Grinsven

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies 2

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies 3

Shifting approaches

Policy agenda• Sustainable development:

– integrated and coherent policies– stronger global dimension

Scientific agenda• Complex questions:

– Assessment and balancing trade-offs in 3-P domain– from technical solutions to integrated policies,

combining policy areas, scales and longer time horizons

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Examples of emerging questions

• Effect of liberalisation of the CAP on nutrient emissions and biodiversity;

• Effect of nutrient policies (including WFD) on agricultural production, rural economies, land use, GHG emissions and biodiversity;

• Effect of biofuel directive on food production/prices, fertiliser use, nutrient emissions and biodiversity (land use),

• Not only in Europe but also elsewhere.

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Nutrient policies (N, P) Costs

Emission to air / exceedence critical loads

Agriculture

GHG emissions Climate change

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Nutrient policies (N, P) Costs

Emission to air / exceedence critical loads

Agriculture

Emission to water

Land use

Rural economy

Biodiversity: terrestrial and aquatic;

GHG emissions Climate change

Major drivers

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Drivers for biodiversity and health effects

CAP, WTOEU N – dir’s• land use• N-intensity• technology

• area• NH3 • NO3

Targets

Biodiversity• terrestrial• aquatic

Health

Kyoto, LRTAP

EU N - dir’s• energy intensity• energy source• technology

• (infrastructure)• NOx• …….

Agriculture Energy&trafficEffects

Population & GDP

rural

water air

remote

Eururalis 2.0

Discussing the future of rural Europe

www.eururalis.eu

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Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies 10

Model framework Eururalis

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Major driving force I: macro-economic growth

GDP per capita growth: 2000-2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

EU15 EU10 High Inc C&S Amer Asia Africa

A1 Global Economy B1 Global Cooperation

A2 Transatlantic Markets B2 Regional Communities

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Major driving force II: EU population

Total population EU27 (millions)

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

A1 Global Economy

B1 GlobalCooperation

A2 ContinentalMarkets

B2 RegionalCommunities

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World Trade Growth in Global Economy (A1) scenario (% change, 2001-30)

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Other impacts CAP1 impact CAP2 impact

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Changing role of farming: decreasing economical significance

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Changing role of farming: importance for land use and landscape

• Agri land-use remains strong (>40%)

• High impact on carbon, erosion, biodiversity, nutrients, landscape

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B1 Global Cooperation 2030

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B2 Regional Communities 2030

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Biodiversity indicator

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Terrestrial biodiversity declines in baseline: fragmentation

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Biodiversity loss in nature areas

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2000 2050

fragmentation

Infra

Climate

Nitrogen

MSA

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Policy matters: are biofuels the solution? 2030 (GE)

Low ambition High ambition

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Trade off: landuse change in Latin-America

Total arable land in Europe and Brazil

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Are

a in

Mh

a EU-27; Low ambition (5.75%)

Brazil; Low ambition (5.75%)

EU-27; High ambition (11.5%)

Brazil; High ambition (11.5%)

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More biofuels: more N needed

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2030 2050

N i

n T

g/y

r

Energy crops 2ndgeneration

Energy crops 1stgeneration

Cropland

Grassland

+13%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2030 2050

N i

n T

g/y

r

Energy crops 2ndgeneration

Energy crops 1stgeneration

Cropland

Grassland

+5%

Source: IMAGE (Bouwman et al., 2006)

Baseline

GC-extra biofuels

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CAP, WTOEU N – dir’s• land use• N-intensity• technology

• area• NH3 • NO3

Targets

Biodiversity• terrestrial• aquatic

Health

Kyoto, LRTAP

EU N - dir’s• energy intensity• energy source• technology

• (infrastructure)• NOx• …….

Agriculture Energy&trafficEffects

Population & GDP

rural

water air

remote

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NO3 in groundwaterN & P in

surface water

NH3N2O,CH4,CO2

fertilizer

Agriculturemanure

EU: environmental legislation

Kyoto protocolThematic Strategy on Air PollutionNational Emission Ceiling DirectiveIPPC -DirectiveCLRTAP-Gothenborg ProtocolAir Quality Directives

Thematic CAP reform + C.C. Animal welfare Rural Development Soil Strategy Birds and habitats directives

Nitrates DirectiveIPPC / CLRTAP

Nitrates Directive Water Framework Directive Groundwater Directive

Nitrates Directive Water Framework Directive

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LEITAP/IMAGE

CAPRI CLUE-s

Possible linking of models

MITERRA

Biodiversity model: terrestrial / aquatic

Drivers:•Population•GDP•Energy prices•Biofuel policy•Trade policies

Drivers:•Climate policies•Environmental policies

RAINS/ GAINS

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The EC4MACS model system

GAINSPOLES PRIMES

CAPRI

TM5 EMEP

CCE-CL

TREMOVE

BENEFITS

Global/hemisphericboundary conditions

European policy drivers

Energy

Transport

Atmosphere

Agriculture

Ecosystems

GEM-E3

Cost-effectiveness

Impacts

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Complex questions complex integrated models?

• Partly yes, but …

• Questions link different policy or scientific areas

• For many areas models already exist

• Investing in combination of existing models probably more efficient than development of new models

• Policy questions are not always complex also maintain less complex approaches

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