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Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2
Project Options Analysis
November 2017
VicRoads
Introduction
• PwC facilitated a process to collate scope options and create options
bundles, through engaging with the project team (DIRD, DEDJTR,
VicRoads, WSP) and key stakeholders regarding intelligent transport
systems (VicRoads), public transport (DEDJTR and VicRoads), and active
transport (VicRoads).
• The options bundles created did not include active or public transport or
pavement strengthening improvements. These scope options were explored
separately as value add opportunities.
• The presentation presents multi-criteria results based on review by
VicRoads, DEDJTR, PwC, WSP and SGS. The four option bundles were
tested against the eight project objectives using qualitative and quantitative
considerations.
• The shortlisted bundles from the MCA process were assessed under a cost
benefit analysis (CBA) framework.
• The purpose of this presentation is to provide additional detail about the
project options analysis process.
2
November 2017
VicRoads
Project options analysisReflecting the range of problems identified in the Monash Transport Corridor
and the range of potential solutions, PwC has developed a 3-step process to
create develop bundles of scope for consideration and select a preferred
bundle.
3
November 2017
1. Identification of scope
items
• Description of scope
items relevant to each
strategic intervention
2. Development and early
assessment of bundles
• Preparation of bundles
• Early bundle assessment
framework
• Shortlisting of bundles
3. Preferred bundle(s)
• Scope refinement of
shortlisted bundles
• Refined cost estimates for
shortlisted bundles
• Assessment of shortlisted
bundles
Identification of scope options
4
November 2017Options Bundling List
VicRoads
Scope items identifiedA list of scope items was identified by VicRoads, PwC, Transport for Victoria and DIRD. These scope items were grouped in the
strategic interventions identified in the Investment Logic Map and are mapped on the next slide.
5
November 2017
Map reference Description
Strategic Intervention A: Additional freeway lanes and managed motorways
A1-1 Additional Monash Freeway lanes from Clyde Road to Cardinia Road (both directions)
A1-2 Additional Monash Freeway lanes from Cardinia Road to Koo Wee Rup Road (both directions)
A2-1 Additional Monash Freeway lane from Warrigal Road to EastLink (outbound only)
A2-2 Additional Monash Freeway lane from Warrigal Road to EastLink (inbound only)
A2-3 Additional Monash Freeway lanes from Warrigal Road to Westall Road extension (outbound only)
A2-5 Additional Monash Freeway lanes from Springvale Road to EastLink (inbound only)
A2-6 Additional Monash Freeway lanes from Springvale Road to EastLink (outbound only)
A3-1 Extend Lane Use Management System east from South Gippsland Freeway to Clyde Road
A3-2 Automatic incident detection on the Monash Freeway from CityLink to Clyde Road
A3-3 Extend Lane Use Management System east from South Gippsland Freeway to Old Princes Highway
Strategic Intervention B: Upgrades to Monash Freeway connections
B1-1 South Gippsland Freeway Ramp to Hallam Bypass outbound with lane widening to Princes Highway
B1-2 South Gippsland Freeway Ramp to Hallam Bypass outbound
B1-3 South Gippsland Freeway Ramp to Hallam Bypass outbound with lane widening to Tinks Road
B2-1 Upgrade of Clyde Road interchange
B2-2 Upgrade of Healesville-Koo Wee Rup Road interchange
B2-3 Upgrade of Beaconsfield interchange
B2-4 Extension of Oshea Road from Soldiers Road to Beaconsfield interchange
B2-5 Duplication of Oshea Road from Clyde Road to Soldiers Road
Strategic Intervention C: Upgrades to alternative surrounding road network routes
C1-1/2/3 Extension of Westall Road to Monash Freeway (accessibility option, hybrid option, mobility option)
C2-1Extension of Dandenong Bypass to South Gippsland Freeway and additional South Gippsland Freeway lanes (inbound
and outbound) from Monash Freeway to Pound Road, with upgrade of Pound Road interchange
VicRoads
Map of all scope items considered
6
Development and early assessment of bundles
7
November 2017Options Bundling List
VicRoads
Preparation of Bundles – Overview of BundlesIndividually, no scope item would be able to singularly address the suite of project objectives, as such an exercise was undertaken
to create Bundles of scope items that would best achieve the project objectives and benefits. The Bundles were broadly identified
to either support freeway upgrades, improve access to the Monash NEIC or the south east growth area, or create an alternative
route connecting the Monash and Dandenong NEICs and the south east growth area.
The 4 Bundles are described below, and maps of each option Bundle are shown on the next 4 slides.
# Options Bundle Description
1 Freeway Lane Widening Package
• Additional freeway lanes, inbound and outbound, along Monash Freeway from Warrigal Road to Eastlink, andClyde Road to Cardinia Road
• Extended managed motorway controls out to Beaconsfield interchange to manage incidents
2 Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway upgrades with connections to Monash NEIC
• Westall Road Extension, a 6-lane highway connection from Monash Freeway near Ferntree Gully Road to theintersection of Westall Road and the Princes Highway
• An additional outbound lane from Warrigal Road to the new Westall Road Extension, additional freeway lanes(outbound and inbound) along Monash Freeway from Springvale Road to Eastlink, and Clyde Road toCardinia Road
• Extended managed motorway controls out to Beaconsfield Interchange to detect incidents• Better manage arterial roads which interface with the freeway to help the freeway recover from major
disruptions
3 Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway upgrades with connections for the south east
• An additional outbound lane from Warrigal Road to the Ferntree Gully Road, additional freeway lanes(outbound and inbound) along Monash Freeway from Springvale Road to Eastlink, and Clyde Road toCardinia Road
• Additional Freeway access for south east growth area with the duplication and extension of Oshea's Road fromClyde Road to Beaconsfield Interchange
• Extended managed motorway controls out to Beaconsfield Interchange to manage incidents
4 Alternative Route Package • An additional outbound lane from Warrigal Road to the new Westall Road Extension, extension ofDandenong Bypass to South Gippsland Freeway, additional freeway lanes (outbound and inbound) alongSouth Gippsland Freeway from Monash Freeway to Pound Road with the upgrade of Pound Road interchange,and a new ramp northbound from South Gippsland Freeway to eastbound Monash Freeway forming a newlane to Princes Highway East
8
November 2017
VicRoads
# Bundles
1 Freeway Lane Widening Package
2Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway upgrades with connections to Monash NEIC
3Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway upgrades with connections for the south east
4 Alternative Route Package
Preparation of Bundles – Alignment to project
objectives and benefitsThe options bundles have been developed to reflect the project objectives, and the benefits captured in the Investment Logic Map.
9
Project Benefits
1) Improved productivity
and growth in Melbourne
5) Economic development
in Melbourne
4) A more liveable
Melbourne
3) A more competitive
freight sector
2) Reduced reliance on the
Monash Freeway
Objectives
1) Reduce congestion and
travel times on the Monash
Freeway
2) Increase road network
capacity
3) Build network resilience and
reliability
4) Improve safety
5) Improve freight efficiency and
business productivity
6) Improve access to jobs and
economic & education clusters
7) Drive business development
and investment
8) Deliver outcomes for local
stakeholders
November 2017
VicRoads
1 - Freeway Lane Widening Package
10
VicRoads 11
2 - Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway upgrades with
connections to Monash NEIC
VicRoads 12
3 - Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway upgrades with
connections for the South East
VicRoads 13
4 - Alternative Routes Priority Package
VicRoads
Preparation of Bundles - Preliminary Cost Methodology
14
A number of assumptions have been made to develop preliminary costs for the multi-criteria analysis:
• Preliminary costs developed by VicRoads and Aquenta (unescalated 2017 dollars) include:
• Direct construction costs
• Indirect construction costs (traffic management, design, project delivery costs, margins)
• Risk (20-40% contingency based on direct and indirect costs)
• Land acquisition (based on comparable land valuation)
• A number of costs already developed in other projects (OSARS, Dandenong Bypass connection, Westall Road)
• Lane widening based on unit cost approach compared with MFU1.
• ITS costs estimated from comparable projects
• A range of costs considered for the MCA was developed to indicate the degree of uncertainty:
• Higher cost estimate – based on direct construction costs, and assumes delivery cost of 150% of direct construction costs (to
reflect indirect construction costs, contingent risk, and land acquisition costs)
• Lower cost estimate – based on direct construction costs, assumes delivery cost 50% of direct construction costs
(benchmarked from Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 1), and land acquisition costs.
Preliminary CostsBundle 1
Freeway Lane Widening Priority Package
Bundle 2Core Freeway with
Monash NEIC Focus
Bundle 3Core Freeway with SE
Growth Area Focus
Bundle 4Alternative Route
Package
Lower Cost Estimate
Higher Cost Estimate
November 2017Source: Aquenta (2017)
VicRoads
Early Bundle Assessment FrameworkA multi-criteria analysis framework was developed to assess the option bundles against the project objectives, and make
recommendations for the detailed economic analysis. The weighting of considerations aligns with the weighting of project benefits.
15
MCA Analysis ConsiderationsObjectives Quantitative Measures to Assist with MCA*
1) Reduce congestion
and travel times on the
Monash Freeway (25%)
2) Increase road
network capacity (10%)
3) Build network
resilience and reliability
(15%)
4) Improve safety (10%)
5) Improve freight
efficiency and business
productivity (15%)
6) Improve access to
jobs and economic &
education clusters (10%)
7) Drive business
development and
Investment (10%)
8) Deliver outcomes for
local stakeholders (5%)
Whether the Bundle reduces the travel time and congestion on
the Monash Transport Corridor.
Consideration of whether or not the Bundle will increase the
capacity of the road network is based on whether the
infrastructure invested in is used and other infrastructure is more
available
Whether the Bundle will promote road safety by reducing
stop/start traffic and focusing on locations with a history of
accidents.
Considers the time and cost at which freight can move through
the corridor and the cost savings to business which rely on the
road transport network to deliver goods and services.
Considers whether the Bundle improves the ability of the
network to cope with network disruptions. Also considers the
extent to which the bundle future proofs the network.
An assessment of how the public is likely to react to each
Bundle.
Examine how the Bundle drives the development and growth of
businesses in the area, particularly by considering business
agglomeration benefits of the bundle.
Consider whether the Bundle promotes development in the
south east corridor by improving access to jobs and education
clusters.
- Travel time savings in 2021 for car and public
transport trips• Total travel time savings for all vehicles (2031 AM and PM
peak fixed traffic assignment)
• Change in VKT on freeways and stop/start roads (2031 AM
and PM peak fixed traffic assignment)
• Accessibility in 2031 to key Dandenong and Monash NEICs
from households (analysis of 2031 AM and PM peak traffic
assignment outputs)
• Travel time savings in 2031 for freight vehicles (light and
heavy commercial vehicles) (2031 AM and PM peak fixed
traffic assignment)
• Effective job density, increase in job/population growth rate,
employer access to labour pool (analysis of 2031 AM and PM
peak traffic assignment outputs)
• Increased traffic volumes on roads with additional traffic
capacity (2031 AM and PM peak fixed traffic assignment)
• Reduced traffic volumes on roads adjacent to freeway
corridors (2031 AM and PM peak fixed traffic assignment)
• Observe some existing analysis of network disruptions
(provided by TFV)
• Consideration of the material already quantified, but with a
focus on stakeholder perspective
*Where model outputs were used to develop quantitative measure, the relative scores of the Bundles were used to capture the scale of
difference between Bundles down to increments of 0.1, but qualitative scores were subjective and used increments of 0.5 for scoring.
VicRoads
Option 1: Freeway Lane Widening package
1) Reduce congestion and travel times on the Monash
Freeway (25%)Whether the bundle reduces the travel time and congestion on the Monash
Freeway. Reduction in total hours spent on the road network.
16
Option 2: Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway
upgrades with connections to Monash NEIC
Option 4: Alternative Route Package Option 3: Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway
upgrades with connections for the south east
Score:
+2.1Score:
+2.4
Score:
+2.9
15,300*Reduction in total vehicle hours travelled
(AM and PM Peak 2031)
18,000Reduction in total vehicle hours travelled
(AM and PM Peak 2031)
21,600Reduction in total vehicle hours travelled
(AM and PM Peak 2031)
9,600Reduction in total vehicle hours travelled
(AM and PM Peak 2031)
*The modelling for option 1 appears to indicate that Warrigal Road
and CityLink have sufficient capacity to accommodate growth on the
Monash Freeway inbound from Ferntree Gully Road to Warrigal Road.
VicRoads has flagged that operationally the transport network will not
be able to accommodate the growth predicted.
Source: WSP Modelling
Score:
+1.3
November 2017
VicRoads
Option 2: Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway
upgrades with connections to Monash NEICOption 1: Freeway Lane Widening package
2) Increase road network capacity (10%)Consideration of whether the bundle will increase the capacity of the road
network (more traffic on roads with additional capacity, less traffic on
surrounding road network)
17
Option 4: Alternative Route PackageOption 3: Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway
upgrades with connections for the south east
Score:
+1.5Score:
+2
Score:
+2
Modest
increases in
capacity for
arterial roads in
Monash NEIC
and SE growth
areaIncreased freeway
capacity attracting
trips
Large
increases in
capacity for
Westall Road
Large
increases in
capacity for
arterial roads
in SE growth
area
Less capacity in
Western section
Increased capacity
around roads in
Monash NEIC
No impact in SE
growth area
Increased
freeway
capacity
attracting trips
Legend:
Decrease in number of cars
No change
Increase in number of cars
AM Peak
Car
Difference,
2031
*The modelling for option 1 appears to indicate that Warrigal Road
and CityLink have sufficient capacity to accommodate growth on the
Monash Freeway inbound from Ferntree Gully Road to Warrigal Road.
VicRoads has flagged that operationally the transport network will not
be able to accommodate the growth predicted.
*
AM Peak
Car
Difference,
2031
AM Peak
Car
Difference,
2031
AM Peak
Car
Difference,
2031
Increased capacity
around roads in
Dandenong NEIC
Source: WSP Modelling
Score:
+1.5
November 2017
VicRoads
Option 1: Freeway Lane Widening package
3) Build network resilience and reliability (15%)Considers whether the bundle promotes the ability for the network to cope with
major disruptions. Also considers the extent to which the bundle future proofs
the network.
18
Option 2: Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway
upgrades with connections to Monash NEIC
Option 4: Alternative Route PackageOption 3: Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway
upgrades with connections for the south east
Score:
+1.5Score:
+2
Score:
+1.5Score:
+3
√ Additional freeway capacity will help
manage lane closures
× Additional freeway capacity will not
help manage freeway closures
- This option does not future proof the network
√ Additional freeway capacity will help
manage lane closures
√ Westall Road Extension will help
manage freeway closures
√ Long term strategy supports investing
In alternatives rather than more freeway
√ Westall Road Extension and the
Dandenong Bypass extension will help
manage lane closures and freeway closures
√ Long term strategy supports investing
in alternatives rather than more freeway,
and this option creates a full bypass
connecting Monash and Dandenong NEICs
√ Additional freeway capacity will help
manage lane closures
× Additional freeway capacity will not
help manage freeway closures
- Long term strategy supports investing
In alternatives rather than more freeway
Confidential Draft November 2017
VicRoads
Option 1: Freeway Lane Widening package
4) Improve safety (10%)Whether the bundle will promote road safety by reducing stop/start traffic and
focusing on locations with a history of accidents.
19
Option 2: Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway
upgrades with connections to Monash NEIC
Option 4: Alternative Route Package Option 3: Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway
upgrades with connections for the south east
Score:
+1.7Score:
+2.0
Score:
+1.8
200,000*Vehicle kilometres shifted to
freeways from local roads
(AM and PM Peak 2031)
230,000Vehicle kilometres shifted to
freeways from local roads
(AM and PM Peak 2031)
210,000Vehicle kilometres shifted to
freeways from local roads
(AM and PM Peak 2031)
115,000Vehicle kilometres shifted to
freeways from local roads
(AM and PM Peak 2031)
Confidential Draft
*The modelling for option 1 appears to indicate that Warrigal Road
and CityLink have sufficient capacity to accommodate growth on the
Monash Freeway inbound from Ferntree Gully Road to Warrigal Road.
VicRoads has flagged that operationally the transport network will not
be able to accommodate the growth predicted.
Source: WSP Modelling
Option 4 expected to shift additional traffic to safer road conditions, which
has been used to award an additional +0.5
Score:
+1.5
November 2017
VicRoads
Option 1: Freeway Lane Widening package
5) Improve freight efficiency and business productivity
(15%)Considers the time and cost at which freight can move through the corridor and the
cost savings to business which rely on the road transport network to deliver goods
and services.
20
Option 2: Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway
upgrades with connections to Monash NEIC
Option 4: Alternative Route Package Option 3: Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway
upgrades with connections for the south east
Score:
+2.2Score:
+2.5
Score:
+2.9Score:
+1.5
1,250*Reduction in heavy vehicle hours travelled
1,950*Light commercial vehicle hours travelled
(AM and PM Peak 2031)
1,400Reduction in heavy vehicle hours travelled
2,300Light commercial vehicle hours travelled
(AM and PM Peak 2031)
1,400Reduction in heavy vehicle hours travelled
2,850Light commercial vehicle hours travelled
(AM and PM Peak 2031)
800Reduction in heavy vehicle hours travelled
1,400Light commercial vehicle hours travelled
(AM and PM Peak 2031)
Confidential Draft
*The modelling for option 1 appears to indicate that Warrigal Road
and CityLink have sufficient capacity to accommodate growth on the
Monash Freeway inbound from Ferntree Gully Road to Warrigal Road.
VicRoads has flagged that operationally the transport network will not
be able to accommodate the growth predicted.
Source: WSP Modelling
November 2017
VicRoads
Option 1: Freeway Lane Widening package
6) Improve access to jobs and economic and education
clusters (10%)Considers whether the bundle promote development in the south east corridor by
improving access to jobs and education clusters.
21
Option 2: Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway
upgrades with connections to Monash NEIC
Option 4: Alternative Route Package Option 3: Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway
upgrades with connections for the south east
Score:
+1.4Score:
+2.5
Score:
+1.3Score:
+1.3
*The modelling for option 1 appears to indicate that Warrigal Road
and CityLink have sufficient capacity to accommodate growth on the
Monash Freeway inbound from Ferntree Gully Road to Warrigal Road.
VicRoads has flagged that operationally the transport network will not
be able to accommodate the growth predicted.
Source: SGS
2.5%*Increase in business-business
access in the Monash NEIC
3.7%*Increase in business-business
access in the Dandenong NEIC
(SGS analysis of 2031 travel time skims)
6.1%*Increase in business-business
access in the Monash NEIC
4.1%*Increase in business-business
access in the Dandenong NEIC
(SGS analysis of 2031 travel time skims)
4.0%*Increase in business-business
access in the Monash NEIC
1.1%*Increase in business-business
access in the Dandenong NEIC
(SGS analysis of 2031 travel time skims)
1.9%*Increase in business-business
access in the Monash NEIC
3.7%*Increase in business-business
access in the Dandenong NEIC
(SGS analysis of 2031 travel time skims)
November 2017
VicRoads
Option 1: Freeway Lane Widening package
7) Drive business development and investment (10%)Examines how the bundle drives the development and growth of businesses in the
area, particularly by considering business agglomeration benefits of the bundle.
22
Option 2: Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway
upgrades with connections to Monash NEIC
Option 4: Alternative Route Package Option 3: Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway
upgrades with connections for the south east
Score:
+1.8Score:
+2.5
Score:
+1.9Score:
+1.1
2.9%*Increase in access to jobs by residents
in the south east region**
(SGS analysis of 2031 travel time skims)
3.9%Increase in access to jobs by residents
in the south east region**
(SGS analysis of 2031 travel time skims)
3.0%Increase in access to jobs by residents
in the south east region**
(SGS analysis of 2031 travel time skims)
1.7%Increase in access to jobs by residents
in the south east region**
(SGS analysis of 2031 travel time skims)
Confidential Draft
*The modelling for option 1 appears to indicate that Warrigal Road
and CityLink have sufficient capacity to accommodate growth on the
Monash Freeway inbound from Ferntree Gully Road to Warrigal Road.
VicRoads has flagged that operationally the transport network will not
be able to accommodate the growth predicted.
Source: SGS**The south east region includes Casey, Frankston,
Greater Dandenong, Kingston, Maroondah, Monash,
Whitehorse, and Knox (Local Government Areas)November 2017
VicRoads
Option 3: Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway
upgrades with connections for the south east
Option 1: Freeway Lane Widening package
8) Deliver outcomes for local stakeholders (5%)Capturing the response of local residents to how well the bundle meets their
expectations after completion and during construction.
23
Option 2: Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway
upgrades with connections to Monash NEIC
Option 4: Alternative Route Package
Score:
+2Score:
+3
Score:
+3Score:
+2.5
√ Freeway users expected to be provide positive
community feedback with additional lanes
× Construction will cause major disruption
to freeway
√ Freeway users expected to be provide positive
community feedback with additional lanes
× Construction will cause major disruption
to freeway
√ Westall Road Extension will please people
accessing the Monash NEIC
× Land acquisition can be unpopular
√ Westall Road Extension and the Dandenong
Bypass extension please local residents
and people accessing Monash and Dandenong
NEICs, as people expected to value having options
√ Construction is expected to have less disruption
as extensions are off existing freeway
× Land acquisition November generate negative
community feedback
× Environmental impacts November generate negative
community feedback
√ Freeway users expected to be provide positive
community feedback with additional lanes
× Construction will cause major disruption
to freeway users
√ Oshea’s Road duplication will please people
living in the south east growth area
× Land acquisition November generate negative
community feedback
Confidential Draft November 2017
VicRoads
Early Bundle Assessment ResultsThe multi-criteria analysis was used to shortlist options bundles to undertake detailed appraisal.
24
Confidential Draft Legend:
-3 Option bundle will have a significant negative impact for the project objective relative to the base case
0 Option bundle will have no impact for the project objective relative to the base case
+3 Option bundle will have a significant positive impact for the project objective relative to the base case
Objectives
Bundle 1Freeway Lane
Widening Priority Package
Bundle 2Core Freeway with
Monash NEIC Focus
Bundle 3Core Freeway with
SE Growth Area Focus
Bundle 4Alternative Route
Package
1) Reduce congestion and travel times on theMonash Freeway
2.1 2.4 2.9 1.3
2) Increase road network capacity 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.5
3) Build network resilience and reliability 1.5 2.0 1.5 3.0
4) Improve safety 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5
5) Improve freight efficiency and businessproductivity
2.2 2.5 2.9 1.5
6) Improve access to jobs and economic & educationclusters
1.4 2.5 1.3 1.3
7) Drive business development and Investment 1.8 2.5 1.9 1.1
8) Deliver outcomes for local stakeholders 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.5
MCA Weighted Sum 1.8 2.3 2.2 1.7
Ranking – MCA Weighted Sum 3 1 2 4
Cost per unit score analysis considered for the preliminary cost estimates for the full bundles
Cost per unit score (Lower Cost Estimate)
Cost per unit score (Higher Cost Estimate)
Ranking – cost per unit score Tied - 1 3 Tied - 1 4
November 2017
Based on the early bundle assessment process, option bundles 1, 2 and 3 were shortlisted for
further assessment
Preferred bundle(s)
25
November 2017Options Bundling List
VicRoads
Overview of steps to determine preferred bundle(s)
• Based on the early bundle assessment process, options bundles 1,2
and 3 were shortlisted for further analysis
• The preferred bundle(s) were determined following three activities:
• Scope refinement of shortlisted bundles
• Detailed cost estimates for shortlisted bundles
• Assessment of shortlisted bundles
26
November 2017
VicRoads
Scope refinement of shortlisted bundlesBundles 1, 2 and 3 were selected for further analysis after refinements, and a new
Bundle was created to reflect a staged approach to delivering Bundle 3.
27
November 2017
Bundle RefinementsRevised Preliminary Costs
($2017-18, P90 nominal, undiscounted)
1
- Collector distributor outbound on Monash Freeway near Jacksons Road and Police Road
- Exclusion of additional westbound lane from Springvale Road to Warrigal Road to manage freeway entering from Warrigal Road and to improve performance on the arterial road network
2
- Collector distributor outbound on Monash Freeway near Jacksons Road and Police Road
- Collector distributor in both directions on Monash Freeway between Forster Road and Springvale Road to reduce delays from vehicles using the Westall Road connection
3A- Bundle 3 has been renamed 3A.- Collector-distributor outbound on Monash Freeway between Jacksons
Road and Eastlink
3B
- Bundle 3B has been created as an interim stage of delivering Bundle 3A to provide a lower cost option.
- Collector-distributor outbound on Monash Freeway between Jacksons Road and Eastlink
- Exclusion of O’Shea’s Round extension
Source: Analysis of options bundles based on inputs from WSP and VicRoads; Aquenta (September, 2017), ‘Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2 Cost Estimate’
VicRoads 28
3B - Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway upgrades with
connections for the South East
Confidential Draft
VicRoads
Detailed cost estimates for shortlisted bundles –
Capital Costs The capital costs estimates (P90 risk, nominal) needed to be adjusted for economic appraisal (P50 risk, real, escalated, present value).
29
November 2017
Economic analysis cost reconciliation
Bundle 1Freeway
widening without inbound lane from
Springvale Road
Bundle 2 Freeway widening
& Westall Rd extension
Bundle 3AFreeway widening,
Beaconsfield Interchange & Oshea
Rd extension
Bundle 3B Freeway widening,
Beaconsfield Interchange
Capital cost estimate Nominal (P90 risk, undiscounted)
Remove escalation and Business Case preparation
Capital cost estimate Real, P90 risk, undiscounted
Remove P90 risk
Add P50 risk
Capital cost estimate Real, P50 risk, undiscounted
Present value of capital cost estimate Real, escalated, P50 risk, discounted
Source: PwC (2017), ‘Economic Assessment Report’
VicRoads
Detailed cost estimates for shortlisted bundles –
Operating and Maintenance Costs The annual estimate for operating and maintenance costs needed to be adjusted to estimate the present value of the costs for the 30 year
evaluation period to reflect “whole-of-life” operating and maintenance costs.
30
November 2017
Economic analysis cost reconciliation
Bundle 1Freeway
widening without inbound lane from
Springvale Road
Bundle 2 Freeway widening
& Westall Rd extension
Bundle 3AFreeway widening,
Beaconsfield Interchange & Oshea
Rd extension
Bundle 3B Freeway widening,
Beaconsfield Interchange
Operating and maintenance cost per annum(2% of capital cost estimate Real P50 contingent risk, undiscounted)
Present value of operating and maintenance cost estimate Real, P50 contingent risk, discounted
Source: PwC (2017), ‘Economic Assessment Report’
VicRoads
Assessment of shortlisted bundlesEconomic appraisal was undertaken for the 4 Bundles consistent with DEDJTR Guidelines for Transport Modelling and Economic Appraisal.
Further information about the methodology is available in Economics appendix.
Costs and BenefitsBundle 1
PV ($m)
Bundle 2
PV ($m)
Bundle 3A
PV ($m)
Bundle 3B
PV ($m)
Total Costs Costs 512 951 648 539
Total Benefits (core) Benefits 1,416 2,270 2,394 1,700
Net Present Value 904 1,319 1,746 1,161
Benefit Cost Ratio 2.8 2.4 3.7 3.2
Additional Benefits (including
WEBs and improved perceived
cost of congestion)
Benefits 1,736 2,843 2,853 2,045
Net Present Value 1,224 1,892 2,205 1,506
Benefit Cost Ratio 3.4 3.0 4.4 3.8
31
November 2017
Highest
BCR and
NPV
VicRoads
Recommendation of preferred bundle(s)
• The economic appraisal indicated that Bundle 3A provides the
highest benefit cost ratio and net present value. Thus, based on the
early bundle assessment process and detailed assessment, Bundle
3A is superior and most aligned to the investment objectives.
• Bundle 3B has the second highest benefit cost ratio and net present
value. Bundle 3B was assessed to provide a lower cost alternative to
Bundle 3A, with the scope difference being the exclusion of O’Shea
Road Extension.
32
November 2017
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