Money Matters: Post Heritage Day Blues Tuesday, 25 September 2012

Money Matters: Post Heritage Day BluesMoney Matters: Post Heritage Day Blues

Tuesday, 25 September 2012Tuesday, 25 September 2012

• Technical Market Overview• Top Down Approach

• Money Matters Recap• Feedback from last month’s meeting

• Top 5 Technical Trade Ideas• Technical analysis

• Top 5 Investment opportunities• Fundamental analysis

• Summary

• Conclusion

AgendaAgenda

International MarketsInternational Markets

BullishBullish

SupportSupport

ResistanceResistance

ResistanceResistance

Brent Oil & Gold $ Brent Oil & Gold $

BullishBullish

ResistanceResistance

SupportSupport

ResistanceResistance

ResistanceResistance

SupportSupport

SupportSupport

ResistanceResistanceBullishBullish

Exchange RatesExchange Rates

US$ StrengthUS$ StrengthSupportSupport

ResistanceResistanceResistanceResistance

ResistanceResistance

ChannelChannel

Triangle Triangle

SupportSupport

ZAR WeaknessZAR Weakness

Local MarketsLocal Markets

BullishBullish

SupportSupport

ResistanceResistance

SupportSupport

JSE Resources 20

BullishBullish

ResistanceResistance ResistanceResistance

SupportSupport

Trade IdeasTrade Ideas

FirstRand (FSR)

Gold Fields (GFI)

BATS (BTI)

Aspen (APN)

Previous Trade IdeasPrevious Trade Ideas

FirstRand (FSR)FirstRand (FSR)

Instrument: CFD / SSFInstrument: CFD / SSFDirection: Sell / ShortDirection: Sell / Short

Entry: 28.15Entry: 28.15Take Profit: 26.10Take Profit: 26.10Stop loss: 29.25 Stop loss: 29.25

Firstrand (FSR)Firstrand (FSR)

We cut the trade early but original TP reached

Gold Fields (GFI)Gold Fields (GFI)

Instrument: CFD / SSFInstrument: CFD / SSFDirection: Sell / ShortDirection: Sell / Short

Entry: 109.25Entry: 109.25Take Profit: 96.00Take Profit: 96.00Stop loss: 115.00 Stop loss: 115.00

Gold Fields (GFI)Gold Fields (GFI)

We revised our TP but original TP reach

BATS (BTI)BATS (BTI)

Instrument: CFD / SSFInstrument: CFD / SSFDirection: Buy / LongDirection: Buy / Long

Entry: 438.50Entry: 438.50Take Profit: 463.50Take Profit: 463.50Stop loss: 428.50Stop loss: 428.50

BATS (BTI)BATS (BTI)

SL triggered

Aspen (APN)Aspen (APN)

Instrument: CFD / SSFInstrument: CFD / SSFDirection: Buy / LongDirection: Buy / Long

Entry: 140.50Entry: 140.50Take Profit: 150.00Take Profit: 150.00Stop loss: 134.50 Stop loss: 134.50

Aspen (APN)Aspen (APN)

Moving sideways – key resistance broken today

The StockbrokerThe Stockbroker

Open Trade IdeasOpen Trade Ideas

Open

Date Stock Direction Entry Take Profit Stoploss Yesterday Close P&L %

20120829 APN Long 141.50 150.00 136.00 142.29 0.56

20120912 JDG Short 46.75 44.00 51.00 45.30 3.10

20120910 DSY Long 54.00 58.00 52.00 54.90 1.67

20120910 IPL Long 192.00 210.00 183.00 195.89 2.03 excluding ZAR380c div

20120919 NTC Short 18.90 17.50 19.50 18.30 3.17

20120919 ACL Short 44.00 40.00 46.50 43.30 1.59

20120920 ASA Long 137.00 145.00 133.00 138.90 1.39

20120925 BAW Short 75.30 71.00 78.00 74.38 1.22

Open trade IdeasOpen trade Ideas

26.54%

Stanbank(SBK) Imperial(IPL) Sasol (SOL) Barloworld (BAW) ** morning trade idea

Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)

Trade SpotlightTrade Spotlight

Stanbank (SBK)Stanbank (SBK)

Long / Buy – Break above 10650c

Imperial Holdings (IPL)Imperial Holdings (IPL)

Long / Buy

Dividend – 380c

Sasol (SOL)Sasol (SOL)

Long / Buy – 36500c

Dividend in Oct (8/10/2012) for 1180c

Long / Buy – 36500c

Barloworld (BAW)Barloworld (BAW)

Instrument: CFD / SSFInstrument: CFD / SSFDirection: Short / SellDirection: Short / Sell

Entry: 75.30Entry: 75.30Take Profit: 70.50Take Profit: 70.50Stop loss: 78.50 Stop loss: 78.50

Tiger Brands (TBS)Tiger Brands (TBS)

Long / Buy

Fundamentals & Share picksFundamentals & Share picks

PSG Online PSG Online

Fundamentals & Share picksFundamentals & Share picks

MTN Group (MTN)MTN Group (MTN)

• Market Capitalisation = R298.224-million (12/09/2012)• Revenue grew 17% to R66.4-billion• Total subscriber base increased by 6.9% to 176-million. • Airtime & subscription revenue grew by 12.5%

– Remains biggest contributor to total revenue at 63.2% (2011: 66%)

• Data revenue increased by 69.6%– Contributed 10% (2011: 7%) to group revenue

• SMS revenue grew 25.4% • Headline earnings & HEPS grew by 14% to R9.9-billion,

and 537.4 cents respectively.• Net dividend (After DWT) of 276.61 cps • Dividend Yield = 5.3%

MTN Group (MTN) (Highlights)MTN Group (MTN) (Highlights)

MTN Group (MTN)MTN Group (MTN)

MTN Group (MTN)MTN Group (MTN)

Sasol (SOL)Sasol (SOL)

• Market Capitalisation = R238.666-million (12/09/2012)• Revenue grew 19% to R169-billion

– Average crude oil & product prices increased by 17%– Rand/ USD weakened by 11%

• Headline earnings grew by 25% to R25.5-billion• HEPS improved by 19% from 3385 cents to 4228 cents.• Final dividend (After DWT) of 1004.3 cps • Dividend Yield = 4.7%

Sasol (SOL) (Highlights)Sasol (SOL) (Highlights)

Sasol (SOL)Sasol (SOL)

Sasol (SOL)Sasol (SOL)

Cashbuild (CSB)Cashbuild (CSB)

• Market Capitalisation = R3.862-million (21/09/2012)• Revenue grew 11% to R6.3-billion• Headline earnings grew by 26% • Basic EPS jumped 91% higher to 1257.5 cents• Net dividend (After DWT) of 232.05 cps

– 96% higher

• Dividend Yield = 3.6%

Cashbuild (CSB) (Highlights)Cashbuild (CSB) (Highlights)

Cashbuild (CSB)Cashbuild (CSB)

Cashbuild (CSB)Cashbuild (CSB)

Peregrine (PGR)Peregrine (PGR)

• Market Capitalisation = R2.576-million (05/09/2012)• Operating revenue grew 4% to R1.5-billion• HEPS increased by 12% from 139.5 cents to 156.3 cents• Final dividend of 72 cps (106% higher)

– Distribution of 3.5 CIL shares for every 100 PGR shares

• Dividend Yield = 6%

Peregrine (PGR) (Highlights)Peregrine (PGR) (Highlights)

Peregrine (PGR)Peregrine (PGR)

Peregrine (PGR)Peregrine (PGR)

Foneworx (FWX)Foneworx (FWX)

• Market Capitalisation = R245-million (14/09/2012)• Revenue grew 8% to R98.6-million• Headline earnings grew by 15% to R22.4-million• HEPS increased by 14% to 16.52 cents• Year-end dividend will be declared at a later date

Foneworx (FWX) (Highlights)Foneworx (FWX) (Highlights)

Foneworx (FWX)Foneworx (FWX)

Foneworx (FWX)Foneworx (FWX)

• MTN Group (MTN)– Buy

• Sasol (SOL)– Buy

• Cashbuild (CSB)– Hold

• Peregrine (PGR)– Buy LT

• Foneworx (FWX) – Spec Buy

Summary: Fundamental Picks Summary: Fundamental Picks

• Fundamental Analysis– Value & Quality

• Simple Trend Analysis– Price Action / Support & Resistance – Overbought / Oversold levels

• Money Matters presentation on FaceBook! • Facebook

– Like! Like! Like! – Comments!

• Next Money Matters Meeting: – Tuesday, 30 October 2012

• Good Luck & Happy Trading!

ConclusionConclusion

Contact us

Travis Robson

Travis.robson@psgonline.co.za

(011) 996 5204

Lawrence Marshall

Lawrence.marshall@psgonline.co.za

(011) 996 5272

Shaun van den Berg

Shaunvdb@psgonline.co.za

(011) 996 5200

This publication has been issued by PSG Online. It is confidential and issued for the information of clients only. It shall not be reproduced in whole or in part without our permission. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources which and persons whom we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgement as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report is provided for informational purposes only. No information contained herein, no opinion expressed and no recommendation made constitutes a representation by us or a solicitation for the purchase of any of the securities mentioned herein and we have no responsibility whatsoever arising here from or in consequence hereof. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mention herein may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions using their own independent advisers as they believe necessary and based upon their specific financial situations and investment objectives. The employees of PSG Online may from time to time own securities mentioned herein. Analyst Certification The research analyst who prepared this report certifies that the view expressed herein accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about the subject security and issuer and that no part of his compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views contained in this report.

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