(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter...

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)

Observed Changes in Observed Changes in Surface and Atmosphere ClimateSurface and Atmosphere Climate

Primary Source: Primary Source:

IPCC WG-I Chapter 3 - Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate ChangeIPCC WG-I Chapter 3 - Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change

Substantial Growth in Information on Substantial Growth in Information on Observed ClimateObserved Climate

1.1. Third Assessment Report (TAR) - 1 ChapterThird Assessment Report (TAR) - 1 Chapter

2. Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) - 3 Chapters2. Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) - 3 Chapters

(Recall growth in peer-(Recall growth in peer-reviewed literature)reviewed literature)

ImprovementsImprovements

1.1. Recovery of old observationsRecovery of old observations

2.2. Improved understanding of sources of errorImproved understanding of sources of error

(e.g., ocean temperatures)(e.g., ocean temperatures)

3.3. Availability and ingestion of satellite Availability and ingestion of satellite observations since 1979 (esp. for Southern observations since 1979 (esp. for Southern Hemisphere)Hemisphere)

Temperature Annual CycleTemperature Annual Cycle

http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/

(surface)

Global, Annual Land-Surface TemperatureGlobal, Annual Land-Surface Temperature

Differences:

• Stations used (all > 4,000)

• Spatial averaging

Urbanization Effects?Urbanization Effects?

U.S. Historical Climatology NetworkT anomaly relative to 1961-1990:• Red - Full set• Blue - without “urban”• Green - “urban” only (pop >30,000 in 2000; 16%)

Red - Blue

Sea-Surface Temperature AnomaliesSea-Surface Temperature Anomalies

Adjustments: Evaporation from canvas/wood buckets; daytime warming of ship deck

Combined Combined Land-Ocean Land-Ocean

Annual Annual Temperature Temperature AnomaliesAnomalies

Error Bars: 5%-95% Error Bars: 5%-95% confidence rangeconfidence range

Temperature Temperature TrendsTrends

1979-2005 Trends1979-2005 Trends

Temperature Trends (1979-2005): SeasonalTemperature Trends (1979-2005): Seasonal

(+ = Significant at 5% level)(+ = Significant at 5% level)

Annual Anomalies of Annual Anomalies of Daily Max T, Min T Daily Max T, Min T

and DTRand DTR

(71% of land with data (71% of land with data available for 1950-2004)available for 1950-2004)

Diurnal Temperature Range

Atmospheric Temperature ChangesAtmospheric Temperature Changes

Baseline: 1979-1997

Satellites

Weather balloons

Atmospheric Temperature ChangesAtmospheric Temperature Changes

Satellites

Weather balloons

Surface stations

Trends Trends (1979-2004)(1979-2004)

Precipitation Annual CyclePrecipitation Annual Cycle

http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/

(surface)

Global Precipitation Changes (Land)Global Precipitation Changes (Land)

(Annual total ~ 1,100 mm/yr)

Precipitation Precipitation TrendsTrends

(Note different scales)(Note different scales)

Atmospheric Atmospheric Water VaporWater Vapor

(from satellite (from satellite observations)observations)

Baseline: 1988-2004

Upper Upper Troposphere Troposphere Water VaporWater Vapor

(from satellite (from satellite observations)observations)

Baseline: 1982-2004

Land Land Cloud Cloud Cover Cover

ChangesChangesBaseline: 1976-2003

El Niño - Southern OscillationEl Niño - Southern Oscillation(Correlations with SOI)

Sea-level pressure Surface temperature

Precipitation

Pacific Pacific Decadal Decadal

OscillationOscillation

Sea-surface temperature changes

Extreme Extreme TemperaturesTemperatures

- - TrendsTrends

Cold: lowest 10%Cold: lowest 10%

Warm: highest 10%Warm: highest 10%

Significant at 5% level

ENDEND

Observed Changes in Observed Changes in Surface and Atmosphere ClimateSurface and Atmosphere Climate

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter...

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