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New businesses across Lancashire’s Local Authority Districts
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%B
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le
Wes
t La
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Business Births as a % of Stock
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201941
Source: Business Demography, ONS 2011 for 5 years
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Bla
ckb
urn
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Val
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ssen
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le
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5 Year Business Survival Rate
England Average
• On the whole, Lancashire’s Local Authority Districts underperform in terms of business births and 5-year survival rates when compared to the England average.
• However, the picture of business births and business survival varies significantly between Lancashire’s local authority districts.
• In terms of new businesses as a proportion of the total business stock, Blackburn with Darwen and Burnley outperform the England average.
• In terms of 5-year business survival, Ribble Valley and Pendle outperform the England average.
England Average
|
Business size
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201942
Proportion of businesses by employment size band
• Lancashire has a small proportion of micro-businesses when compared to any other assessed spatial level. These are often the source of fast growth – therefore Lancashire may be missing out on potential high-growth businesses
88.1%
88.7%
89.2%
89.6%
9.9%
9.3%
8.9%
8.5%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100%
Lancashire
North West
England MinusLondon
England
0-9 10-49 50-249 250+
Source: UK Business Counts, NOMIS 2017
|
Key sectors
• Lancashire’s GVA-driving sectors are
broadly inline with North West
averages.
• The county draws a large proportion
of its GVA (60%) from its three
largest sectors: Manufacturing;
Distribution, transport,
accommodation and food; & Public
administration; education; health.
• Lancashire also draws a relatively low
proportion of its GVA from Business
service activities.
• Thus, the economy has a specialism
in manufacturing, a relatively high
concentration of public sector
activity, a low concentration of high-
value added service activities.
• Although, in line with What Works
Centre guidance, local partners note
that industrial structure is not
something that may be easily
influenced through local intervention.
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base
Share of GVA By Sector
August 201943
Source: ONS Regional Accounts, 2015
|
29%
35%
23%
24%
14%
19%
28%
16%
31%
12%
14%
15%
18%
21%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Blackburn with…
Blackpool
Burnley
Chorley
Fylde
Hyndburn
Lancaster
Pendle
Preston
Ribble Valley
Rossendale
South Ribble
West Lancashire
Wrye
Agriculture, forestry and fishing Production other than manufacturing
Manufacturing Construction
Distribution; transport; accommodation and food Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities
Business service activities Public administration; education; health
Other services and household activities
Variation in sectoral mix between Local Authority Districts in Lancashire
• Over 25% of GVA in Rossendale,
Ribble Valley, Pendle, Fylde
comes from the Manufacturing
sector – well above the county
average.
• In Lancaster, 12% of GVA comes
from production other than
manufacturing – compared to a
county average of 3%.
• South Ribble has a particularly
large construction sector – 20%
of GVA compared to a county
average of 7%.
• Wyre, Ribble Valley, Pendle and
Hyndburn have small business
services sectors – less than 5% of
GVA compared to a county
average of 8%.
• In Preston and Blackpool over
30% of GVA comes from Public
administration, education and
health sector activities –
compared to a county average of
22%.
• Thus, local economic priorities
are likely to vary between
districts.
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base
Share of GVA By Sector
August 201944
Source: ONS Regional Accounts, 2015
|
GVA per hour worked
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201945
Nominal (smoothed) GVA (B) per hour worked indices, 2004 - 2017
Source: ONS Regional and Sub-regional Productivity, 2019
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Lancashire Blackburn with Darwen BlackpoolLancaster and Wyre Mid Lancashire East LancashireChorley and West Lancashire North West England
• All the local authority districts in Lancashire have been on an upward trajectory in terms of GVA per hour worked since 2014.
• The largest changes in GVA per hour worked over the period 2004-2017 occurred in Lancaster and Wyre, which fell from close to the England average in 2004 to just above that of the North West in 2017, and Mid-Lancashire which climbed from below the Lancashire average in 2004 to the national average in 2017.
• But there is significant variation between local authority districts in GVA per hour worked – posing a particular challenge for inclusive growth.
|
Priority Sectors identified in the Strategic Economic Plan
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence BaseAugust 2019 46
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING
CONSTRUCTION CREATIVE AND DIGITAL ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
FINANCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL
SERVICES
HEALTH & SOCIAL CARE
VISITOR ECONOMY
|
Advanced Manufacturing
Employment in key manufacturing sectors
Aerospace 12,900
Automotive 4,100
Food & Drink 13,500
Textiles 3,700
Chemicals 4,300
The premises offer for Advanced Manufacturing
The Enterprise Zones at Samlesburyand Warton offer space for 6,000
highly skilled jobs
The skills challenge for Advanced Manufacturing
Nearly 22,00 workers will need to be replaced by 2022
Key businesses
BAE Systems
BCW Engineering
Burton’s Foods
Evans Vanodine International
Fox’s Biscuits
Graham & Brown
Hotter Shoes
Leyland Trucks
Panaz
Pepsi
Rolls Royce
TRW Automotive
Victrex
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence BaseAugust 2019 47
Source: Lancashire LEP Sector Skills Baseline Study, 2015
|
Lancashire’s aerospace supply chain
August 2019 DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base 48
Lancashire is the biggest aerospace employer in the UK with 17,00 directly employed in the sector, and tens of thousands employed in high skilled jobs throughout its supply chain.
There are around 30 Lancashire-based aerospace firms, which have a combined turnover of £5billion, these include BAE, Rolls-Royce, Kaman, Safran, Magellan, Weston, Velocity and Assystem.
Approximately 500 firms in Lancashire directly supply the county’s aerospace sector, many in specialist manufacturing including engine sub-system assembly, precision components and advanced surface treatments.
Lancashire is the only place in the UK with the skills, resources and capacity for the manufacturing and servicing of a complete aircrafts for its entire life-cycle.
The county has world-class aerospace businesses, assets and infrastructure dedicated to R&D, manufacturing and servicing, including the Samlesbury Enterprise Zone with its aerospace hub and BAE’s UK manufacturing base which includes aerospace training facility.
Lancashire has had substantial private sector investment in aerospace (including from Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems), and the LEP has previously secured Growth Deal public funding to support aerospace activities.
The North West Aerospace Alliance forecasts increasing demand for new larger civil craft over the next two decades, as well as 12,500 civil aircraft awaiting manufacture with the potential for growing demand for the region’s innovation and production capabilities.
Source: NWAA, Lancashire: Number One For Aerospace Jobs, 2017
|
Construction
• c.36,000 workers in construction in Lancashire
• 584 construction business in Lancashire
• Key construction businesses:
• BAAS Construction
• Balfour Beatty
• Barnfield Construction
• Conlon Construction
• Eric Wright Group
• FWP Group
• Laing O’Rourke
• Marcus Worthington Group
• Story Homes
• Wade Group
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 2019 49
Source: Lancashire LEP and National Careers Service, Sector Focus, and CITB, Construction in the Lancashire LEP Area, 2016
|
Creative & Digital
4,500 Creative & Digital businesses 36,000 workers
Key businesses:
• Bespoke Internet
• Door4
• EKM
• Fat Media
• Graham & Brown
• JP74
• Motionlab
• NuBlue
• Panaz
• SMD Textiles
• Tetrad
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence BaseAugust 2019 50
Source: Lancashire LEP Sector Skills Baseline Study, 2015
|
Energy and Environmental
5,200 business 40,000 workers Key businessesEDF Energy
Farmgen
Peel Energy
Recycling Lives
Remsol
Westinghouse
Trelleborg Offshore
United Utilities
Vattenfall
Vital Energi
Wind Power
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence BaseAugust 2019 51
Source: Lancashire LEP Sector Skills Baseline Study, 2015
|
Financial and Professional Services
5,200 business 40,000 workers Key businessesBegbies Traynor
Chesnara PLC
Chorley Building Society
Danbro
Farleys Solicitors
Forbes Solicitors
Key Retirement Solutions
KPMG
Marsden Building Society
Moore and Smalley
Napthens Solicitors
National Savings and Investments
PM+M
RSM
Taylor Patterson
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence BaseAugust 2019 52
Source: Lancashire LEP Sector Skills Baseline Study, 2015
|
Health and social care
3,500 businesses
98,000 workers – largest
employment sector
Concentrations of jobs in:
Preston
Blackburn with Darwen
Blackpool
Key employer:
NHS
Private sector: Bupa
Anchor
Barchester
Multiple smaller businesses
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence BaseAugust 2019 53
Source: Lancashire LEP Sector Skills Baseline Study, 2015
|
Visitor Economy
3,800 businesses 50,000 workers Key employers:Best Western
Blackpool Pleasure
Beach
Blackpool Winter
Gardens
Holiday Inn
Martin Mere
Merlin Entertainments
Northcote
Pure Leisure Group
Preston Guild Hall
Seafood Pub Company
The Sandcastle
Travelodge
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence BaseAugust 2019 54
Source: Lancashire LEP Sector Skills Baseline Study, 2015
|
Exports in goods and services
• Publicly available data on exports at the local authority level are limited. Experimental data on service exports show Lancashire performs strongly on
service exports as a proportion of its GVA, out-performing the North West and performing close to the England average.
• Mid Lancashire (Fylde, Preston, Ribble Valley and South Ribble) exports the most goods (in value) to both EU and non-EU countries, East Lancashire
(Burnley, Hyndburn, Pendle and Rossendale) exports the second-most.
• Chorley and West Lancashire, Blackburn with Darwen, Lancaster and Wyre and Blackpool export more goods to the EU than non-EU countries, in
Chorley and West Lancashire, Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool this disparity is large with EU goods exports contributing double as much in value
than those in non-EU countries. Mid and East Lancashire’s goods exports to non-EU countries contribute much higher value than their EU exports,
however.
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201955
14%
11%10%
15%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Lancashire North West England MinusLondon
England
Service Exports as a Proportion of GVA
Source: The Pink Book International Trade in Services ONS 2016 & Regional GVA by Local Authority, ONS 2016
947 777 307 304 282
51
1,512
1,033
165 151 246
25
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
MidLancashire
EastLancashire
Chorley andWest
Lancashire
Blackburnwith
Darwen
Lancasterand Wyre
Blackpool
Statistical Value of Non-EU Exports (£ million)
Statistical Value of EU Exports (£ million)
Source: HMRC Regional Trade in Goods Statistics, 2017
Regional Trade in Goods Statistics disaggregated by smaller geographical areas
|
Exports and foreign investment
• The North West’s Foreign Direct Investment
projects constitute 6% of the UK’s total, Yorkshire
and the Humber’s FDI projects also constitute 6%.
The West Midlands’ (7%), South East’s (10%) and
London’s (39%) constitute higher percentages of
the UK’s total FDI projects than the North West
region’s, the North East’s (3%), East Midlands’
(3%) and South West’s (4%) FDI projects,
constitute lower percentages.
• Publicly available data on foreign ownership at
local authority level is limited, regional data show
the North West has the fourth largest number of
foreign-owned businesses, after London, the
South East and the West Midlands.
• Foreign ownership may be advantageous to an
economy, as foreign-owned businesses tend to
export more than domestic firms and can tap in to
wider supply and innovation networks – however,
in the current policy environment with uncertainty
regarding international trade and investment
arrangements, stakeholders have expressed a
need to identify and mitigate risks associated with
key investment decisions being taken overseas.
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201956
390
1,625
1,175
1,240
1,775
2,135
8,405
4,630
1,175
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
North East
North West
Yorks & Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
Number of foreign-owned businesses by Region
Source: VAT and/or PAYE based Enterprises by Country of Ultimate Foreign Ownership ONS, 2010
North West, 142
Regional Breakdown of all UK’s Foreign Direct Investment Projects
Multiple UK sites
North East
North West
Yorkshire and The Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
Scotland
Wales
Northern IrelandSource: DIT Inward Investment Results, 2018-19
Ideas
|
Introduction
Outline of this section
• This section reviews the innovation landscape in
Lancashire. It provides an overview of:
• Research, Development, Demonstrator and
Innovation Assets including Higher Education
Institutions;
• Patent activity by sector;
• University research performance;
• University Commercialisation, Spin-offs, Knowledge
Transfer Partnerships and Graduate Start-ups; and
• Regional-level data on innovation active businesses
and R&D spending by business and universities.
• It draws on national datasets, plus the:
• Lancashire Innovation Plan, 2018;
• North West Coastal Arc Partnership for Clean and
Sustainable Growth Science and Innovation Audit,
2018 – a partnership led by Lancaster University,
involving Merseyside, Cheshire, Staffordshire and
North Wales;
• Innovation North Progressing Innovation in the
Northern Powerhouse, NP11 and Innovate UK, 2018;
and
• ESRC-funded Lancashire Innovation Ecosystem
Project – ongoing.
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201958
Key messages
• Lancashire is home to leading global businesses at the cutting edge of advances in
Advanced Manufacturing, which are supported by a cluster of high-tech SMEs that
are amongst the most productive in the country.
• Lancashire’s manufacturing base is led by aerospace, automotive, and energy
sectors, with additional strengths in digital, healthcare and agri-food and agri-tech
sectors.
• There are excellent examples of innovation in Lancashire’s business base, including
BAE Systems in the aerospace sectors and AMS Neve in digital/sound engineering.
• Lancashire is developing its innovation links with neighbouring cities, including but
not limited to Manchester, Liverpool and Sheffield. An example of collaboration
with Sheffield partners is the Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre North
West.
• Lancashire’s HEIs have research strengths in Allied Health Professions, Chemistry,
Computer Science, Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences, General
Engineering, Mathematical Sciences and Physics.
• IPO data show strong intellectual property advances in areas such as Civil
Engineering, Mechanical Elements, Medical and Computer Technology, and
Thermal Processes.
• Lancashire’s strengths in industries at the forefront of Industry 4.0 and its
participation in the Made Smarter Pilot in the North West mean that it is well-
placed to capitalise on productivity improvements associated with increased
automation and the adoption of new technology.
• Lancashire has an unusual mix of sectors and supply chains with (as yet untapped)
potential to combine capabilities which may open up new competitive
opportunities.
|
Innovation assets
• Four universities operate in Lancashire – the table below shows their positions in different Higher Education Insitution ranking schemes.
• The Lancashire Innovation Plan identifies: 54 innovation assets that support and enable innovation, which cover 16 sectors, including:
• Advanced Manufacturing (15 assets);
• Digital (6 assets);
• Energy (5 assets);
• Aerospace (5 assets); and
• Health (5 assets).
• There is a concentration of innovation assets along the West to East corridor (M55-M6-M65).
• There is also a substantial concentration of assets around the Lancaster University and UCLAN Campuses.
• Digital assets in Lancashire appear to be broadly distributed, with no apparent signs yet of effective clustering.
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201959
Times UK Ranking Times World Ranking
QS World Ranking REF Power Ranking FTE Students Intl Students
Lancaster University 6 =150 =135 25 11,637 38%
University of Central Lancashire
93 601-800 801-1000 74 16,500 18%
Edgehill University 61 - - 96 - -
Cumbria University 125 - - 142 - -
Higher Education Institutions
Source: The Times/The Sunday Times: Good University Guide 2018, Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2018, QS World University Rankings 2018, REF 2014 Power Rankings
Lancashire’s Innovation Assets
Source: Lancashire Innovation Plan, 2018
|
Patent applications
• Firms and research institutions based in Lancashire are actively developing patents across a broad range of sectors.
• Relative to other LEP areas, Lancashire has particular prominence in patents for:
• Thermal Processes & Apparatus;
• Mechanical Elements; and
• Civil Engineering.
• With further strengths in Digital and Healthcare.
• It should be noted that these data capture ‘local’ patenting, which does not include patents from major multi-national corporations (MNCs) with registered HQs outside Lancashire, so these data are likely to understate the level of activity in Lancashire.
• Data on innovation active businesses are only available at regional level – the North West is only marginally behind the UK average.
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201960
Source: IPO, 2017
52%
53%
51%
52%
53%
54%
North West UK
Innovation active businesses
Patent applications by sector, 2005 to 2017
Source: Innovation Active Enterprises, UK Innovation Survey 2015 (survey period 2012-2014)
|
R&D Spend
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201961
Source: ONS Country and regional breakdown of expenditure, 2017 and ONS Population Estimates 2019
R&D Expenditure per person by Business and Higher Education
£91
£95
£106
£71
£71
£133
£225
£129
£76
£120
£145
£300
£172
£319
£421
£758
£317
£535
£297
£386
£0 £100 £200 £300 £400 £500 £600 £700 £800
North East
North West
Yorkshire and the Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
England
Business R&D Spend per head Higher Education R&D Spend per head
Gross R&D Expenditure by Business and Higher Education
£240
£691
£579
£341
£416
£819
£1,982
£1,174
£424
£384
£2,174
£938
£1,521
£2,467
£4,677
£2,796
£4,860£1,652
£0 £1,000 £2,000 £3,000 £4,000 £5,000
North East
North West
Yorkshire and the Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
Business R&D Spend (£ million) Higher Education R&D Spend (£ million)
• Data on R&D expenditure is available at regional level for university and business investment – this provides an indication of the levels of investment in R&D in Lancashire.
• It shows:
• HE R&D investment per head is £95 – 80% of the England average; and
• Business R&D investment per head is £300 – around 80% of the England average.
• Data on investment in R&D by government and charities is not available at the level of the NW due to issues of confidentiality.
|
Innovation Projects
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201962
Projects funded by Innovate UK in Lancashire LEP between 2004-2019,
sum of grants offered (£000s) by sector
Projects funded by Innovate UK in Lancashire LEP between 2004-2019,
sum of grants offered (£000s) by enterprise type
Source: Innovate UK and UK Research and Innovation, 2019
8.4
3207
3756
4341
4647
10693
17502
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Strategy
Ageing Society, Health & Nutrition
AI & Data Economy
Clean Growth & Infrastructure
Global
Open & Commercialisation
Manufacturing, Materials & Mobility
252
6368
9132
10009
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Public Sector Organisation
Large
Academic
Micro, Small and Medium
• An area’s ability to innovate effectively plays a crucial role in economic growth and competitiveness. Lancashire’s universities spark innovation, but what about firms across the LEP? The Enterprise Research Centre measured firm’s performance across 10 benchmarks of ability innovate.
• Innovation projects in Lancashire between 2004-2009 constitute 12.7% of the total grants awarded across the North West region.
0
10
20
30
40
50Business Practices
Work Organisation
Marketing
R&D
Design
Co-operation
Product/Service Innov.
Radical Innov
Innov. Sales
Process innov
HighestLowestLancashire
• Lancashire LEP performs better than the average of all LEPs in England on 6 of the 10 benchmarks; Business Practices, Marketing, R&D, Design, Radical Innovation and Process Innovation.
• Lancashire LEP however scores lower than average across the other 4 benchmarks; Work Organisation, Co-operation, Product/Service Innovation and Innovation Sales.
Source: ERC Innovation Benchmarks, 2019
Innovation metrics, Lancashire LEP 2014-16
|
University research performance
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201963
Highest % of research (overall) rated 4* or above by subject & by university
University SubjectAverage of 4* Research
Lancaster Theology & Religious Studies 42%
Lancaster Business & Management Studies 41%
Lancaster English Language & Literature 40%
Lancaster Mathematical Sciences 40%
Lancaster Allied Health Professions, Dentistry, Nursing & Pharmacy 39%
Lancaster Sociology 39%
Lancaster Computer Science & Informatics 36%
Lancaster Earth Systems & Environmental Sciences 32%
Lancaster Art & Design: History, Practice & Theory 31%
Lancaster History 30%
Lancaster Psychology, Psychiatry & Neuroscience 29%
Lancaster Law 28%
Lancaster Education 25%
Lancaster Physics 24%
Lancaster Chemistry 20%
UCLANCommunication, Cultural & Media Studies, Library & Information Management 20%
UCLAN Modern Languages & Linguistics 20%
Lancaster General Engineering 17%
Edge Hill Psychology, Psychiatry & Neuroscience 15%
Cumbria Sport & Exercise Sciences, Leisure & Tourism 14%
Edge Hill Sport & Exercise Sciences, Leisure & Tourism 13%
UCLAN Psychology, Psychiatry & Neuroscience 13%
Source: REF, 2014
• As noted above, four universities operate in Lancashire:
• Lancaster;
• UCLAN;
• Edge Hill; and
• Cumbria.
• The Research Excellence Framework (2014) shows Lancashire’s HEIs have significant research strengths.
• The high-rated subjects of relevance to the Industrial Strategy are:
• Business & Management Studies;
• Mathematical Sciences;
• Allied Health Professions, Dentistry, Nursing & Pharmacy;
• Computer Science & Informatics;
• Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences;
• Psychology, Psychiatry & Neuroscience;
• Physics;
• Chemistry; and
• General Engineering.
• The next slide illustrates the universities’ performance relative to the UK average.
|
Research performance
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201964
Lancaster University
% of research (overall) rated 4* or above by subject
Edgehill University
University of Central Lancashire (UCLAN)
University of Cumbria
Source: REF, 2014
|
Universities and Intellectual Property
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201965
Source: Lancashire Innovation Plan, 2018
27 29
47
94
0
20
40
60
80
100
The University of CentralLancashire
The University of Lancaster
Number of disclosures Cumulative patent portfolio
Source: HESA, 2017/18
Patent portfolio and number of disclosures by university
1
2
3 3
1
4
7
3
0
2
4
6
8
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
The University of Central Lancashire The University of Lancaster
Source: HESA, 2014/15-2017/18
Granted number of patents by year• Two of Lancashire’s universities, Lancaster and UCLAN,
actively generate new IP.• In 2017/18, UCLAN had 27 disclosures, i.e. research that may
be commercially relevant and require a patent, and Lancaster identified 29.
• The generation of findings which may be patentable and then achieves a patent can take time and is ‘lumpy’ making year-on-year comparisons tricky. The range of patents granted each year for Lancaster is in the range of 1-7 and for UCLAN 1-3.
• Between the two universities there are 141 active patents in their portfolios.
• In terms of driving GVA and growth, the key challenge for the universities is commercialisation of their research – the next slide provides a breakdown of the data on this.
|
Commercialising Research
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201966
£229,000
£105,000
£35,000£107,000
£7,000£5,000
£0
£100,000
£200,000
£300,000
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Lancaster University UCLAN Cumbria
Intellectual property income (including patents, copyright, design,
registration and trade marks) by university
Source: HESA, 2014/15-2016/17
2
7
4
0
2
4
6
8
The University of CentralLancashire
The University of Lancaster
Spin-offs with some HEP ownershipFormal spin-offs, not HEP owned
Spinoff activity
Source: HESA, 2017/18
• University research is translated into commercial activity through spin-off companies or licensing.
• Data for 2017/18 show two active spin-offs for UCLAN and 11 active spinoffs for Lancaster – seven of which have at least some ownership with the university.
• To provide a comparison in terms of scale of activity, data for the University of Manchester show 14 active spinouts with university ownership and 12 with no university ownership, and data for the University of Liverpool show 12 active spinouts with some university ownership and 2 without.
• The above chart shows income from licensing for Lancaster, UCLAN and Cumbria universities.
• It shows significant variation from year to year – and income of a relatively modest scale.
• To provide a comparison in terms of scale, data for the University of Manchester show £1.65m in 2014/15, £3.6m 2015/16, £1.27m 2016/17 and data for the University of Liverpool show £361,000 in 2014/15, £524,000 in 2015/16 and £683,000 2016/17.
|
Supporting Business
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201967
Graduate start-ups
Source: HESA, 2017/18
972
55 76
625
40 150
100200300400500600700800900
1000
The University ofCentral Lancashire
The University ofLancaster
University ofCumbria
Number of active firms
Number still active which have survived at least 3 years
Knowledge Transfer Partnerships
Current KTPS Total completed KTPs
Edge Hill University 1 4
Lancaster University 7 43
University of Central Lancashire 2 48
University of Cumbria 0 15
Source: Knowledge Transfer Partnerships Database , InnovateUK (Accessed 05/19)
Graduate entrepreneurship
• Universities in Lancashire have a good track record in graduate entrepreneurship – UCLAN has one of the best records in the country in terms of graduate start-ups.
• Graduate start-ups include all new businesses started by recent graduates (within two years of graduation) regardless of where any IP resides, but only where there has been formal business/enterprise support from the HE provider
KTPs
• Universities support the adoption and the spread of innovation via Knowledge Transfer Partnerships.
• Lancashire has a strong KTP network – with 10 active KTPs and a track record of successful delivery
People
|
Introduction
Outline of this section
• This section covers the size, occupational mix,
qualifications and skills of Lancashire’s current
workforce and projected future requirements.
• It draws on national datasets to look in turn
at:
• Employment rates;
• Employment by sector;
• Employment by Occupation;
• Current skill shortages;
• Potential sector and occupational
changes to 2028;
• Projected changes in demand for
workers at different levels of skill;
• Educational outcomes;
• Subject choices of students in Further
and Higher Education, as an indication of
future talent flow; and
• Current health as a potential cause of
relatively low productivity.
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201969
Key messages
• Lancashire’s employment rate is relatively good compared to regional and national
averages. There are, however, significant variations in the employment rates achieved in
different districts. Thus, there is untapped employment potential in the county.
• The employment rate appears to be more volatile than regional and national rates,
indicating a need to build resilience in local economies and the workforce.
• Lancashire has a greater proportion of lower level occupations and fewer high-level
occupations than the England.
• The largest sectors by employment are Wholesale & Retail Trade, Human Health & Social
Work, Manufacturing, Education, and Accommodation & Food.
• Currently there are skills shortages in Skilled Trades, and Administrative and Clerical Staff.
• There are projected reductions in demand for Process, Plant and Machinery Operatives
and Administrative and Secretarial Support and projected increases in Directors,
Managers and Senior Officials; Professional occupations; Associate Professional and
Technical occupations; and Caring, Leisure and Other Services occupations.
• The challenge for the local economy in terms of those currently in work will be to reskill
those who need to move sectors and upskill those who need to attain new roles in their
current sector – particularly in relation to digital skills.
• The education system locally performs well in aggregate but this overall picture masks
significant variation at the local level.
• STEM subjects are relatively popular with students going on to study at university, but
there is a risk of a mismatch between the educational choices of students and the needs
of the economy in the future.
• More than half of Lancashire’s Districts suffer above average sickness absence rates,
which reduces worker productivity – health interventions as part of workforce
development will help drive up productivity in some of the areas with relatively low
worker productivity.
|
Population
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201970
• Blackburn with Darwen, Blackpool, Lancaster and Preston have the largest populations of Lancashire’s local authority districts, Ribble Valley and Rossendale have the smallest populations.
• Blackburn with Darwen has the largest proportion of 0-15 year olds in Lancashire (23.3%), Fylde has the smallest (15.7%). Preston has the largest proportion of working age population (65.4%), while Wyre has the smallest (57%). Wyre has the largest proportion of those aged 65 years or more (27.2%), Blackburn with Darwen has the smallest (14.3%).
• To a large extent Lancashire’s age-makeup reflects the UK’s, but with slightly lower proportions of 20-34 year olds, and slightly higher proportions of people over 50.
23.3%18.4%
20.7%18.4%
15.7%20.7%
16.8%21.1%
20.0%
17.2%19.6%
18.3%17.1%
15.8%
62.4%
61.2%
60.8%
62.1%
57.4%
61.0%
63.3%
60.5%
65.4%
59.5%
62.2%
60.8%
61.2%
57.0%
14.3%
20.4%
18.4%
19.5%
26.9%
18.2%%
19.9%
18.5%
14.7%
23.3%
18.2%
20.9%21.7%
27.2%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Aged 0 to 15 Aged 16 to 64 Aged 65+
Lancashire’s local authority districts by population size and age groups, 2017
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey, 2017
18.9%
19.0%
18.9%
61.4%
62.5%
62.9%
19.8%
18.4%
18.2%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%
Lancashire
North West
UnitedKingdom
Aged 0 to 15 Aged 16 to 64 Aged 65+
Age groups, 2017
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey, 2017
|
Demography
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201971
0.5%
0.2%
0.8%
1.2%
1.1%
15.0%
3.1%
1.7%
2.8%
2.4%
15.1%
4.4%
3.6%
2.8%
2.5%
0.8%
0.6%
1.8%
3.4%
3.0%
2.0%
1.6%
2.2%
3.6%
3.3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Blackburn with Darwen
Lancashire
North West
England
UK
Other ethnic group Black or Black British Pakistani/Bangladeshi
Indian Mixed ethnic group
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey, 2018-2019
Minority ethnic percentage of the total population aged 16 and over
• Lancashire has a smaller proportion Black and/or Black British population and higher Pakistani and/or Bangladeshi and Indian populations than the UK as a whole, as a proportion of the total population aged 16 and over.
• The published data on ethnic minority populations in Lancashire by local authority district is incomplete.
• However, data show that Blackburn with Darwen has a significantly different profile from Lancashire overall.
• The North West region and the UK as a whole have similar proportions of men and women. Lancashire has a very slightly lower proportion of men and slightly higher proportion of women.
Lancashire North WestUnited
Kingdom
Male49.44% 49.34% 49.34%
Female50.56% 50.66% 50.66%
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey, 2017
|
Population Projections
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201972
Projected change in population between 2016 and 2036, thousands
Source: GMFM 2018
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027 2032 2037
Total population Working age population: 16-64
Population: 15-74
Projected change in population In Lancashire LEP between 2014 and 2037
• Over the next two decades Lancashire’s population is likely to change.
• Following the trend of the UK’s ageing population, there is a projected increase of 102,481 in population over the age of 65 in Lancashire.
• The working age population is projected to decrease by a similar amount, 97,459, increasing Lancashire’s dependency ratio in turn.
• In contrast to the North West as whole, Lancashire’s total population is projected to decrease, by 14,867.
• Total migration is also forecasted to lessen slightly, both in Lancashire and across the North West region.
Source: GMFM 2018
-14.87-19.89 -97.46
102.48-5.75
181.95
-10.74
-288.62
481.31
-34.47
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Total populationPopulation aged0-15
Population aged16-64
Population aged65+
Total migration(annual
average)
Lancashire LEP North West
|
Employment Rate
Variations in the employment rate by local authority
• The employment rate varies between Lancashire’s Local
Authority Districts with a number falling below (and a few
significantly below) the UK average, namely: Blackburn
with Darwen, Blackpool, Fylde, Pendle and West
Lancashire.
• A number of areas also outperform the UK in terms of the
employment rate, most significantly Chorley and South
Ribble (both areas have employment rates above 80%).
Variations in the employment rate over time
• The employment rate has fluctuated across time, with
much of this variation accounted for by national economic
trends. However, Lancashire’s employment rate appears
to be more volatile than North West and England trends.
• Following the 2008 recession, Lancashire initially
recovered faster than national and regional averages. This
was followed by a more severe second decline in 2013-14.
However, Lancashire again recovered quickly with
employment growth rates outpacing national and regional
averages. More recent data show a tailing off of this
growth.
• This pattern of volatility implies a need to build economic
resilience.
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201973
% in employment aged 16-64 over time
67.3%
71.0%67.1%
86.9%77.3%79.3%
71.1%69.1%
75.9%74.9%75.0%82.7%
69.3%
79.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Local Authorities United Kingdon (75.2%)
% in employment aged 16-64, 2018/19
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2019
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2019
64%
68%
72%
76%
80%
Lancashire North West United Kingdom
|
Employment by sector
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201974
Source: BRES, 2016
Sector % total jobs
Wholesale & Retail Trade 16%
Human Health & Social Work
16%
Manufacturing 13%
Education 9%
Accommodation & food 8%
• Lancashire’s sectoral breakdown is distinct from the North West and England for the scale of ‘human health and social work activities’ and, more significantly, manufacturing.
• Lancashire also has a relatively low proportion of employment in the ‘financial and insurance activities’ and ‘information and communication’ sectors.
• The county’s largest sectors by employment are detailed in the table below.
|
Occupational breakdown
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201975
• An economy’s occupational mix helps to determine the overall worker productivity and earnings.
• Compared to the UK, Lancashire has a larger proportion of employment in lower skilled occupations and a smaller proportion of employment in higher skilled occupations.
• This mix needs to shift if Lancashire’s economy is to increase productivity and earnings.
9.5%
18.4%
13.6%
10.8%
10.7%
9.2%
7.0%
9.1%
10.8%
20.9%
14.7%
10.2%
9.1%
7.4%
6.3%
10.3%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Managers, directors and senior officials
Professional occupations
Associate prof & tech occupations
Skilled trades occupations
Caring, leisure and other serviceoccupations
Sales and customer service occupations
Process, plant and machine operatives
Elementary occupations
UK Lancashire
Employment by occupation, 2019
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2019
|
Skills shortages
Employers reporting skills shortage vacancies by Occupation
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201976
Source: UKCES, 2015
• In terms of the current level of supply and demand for skills, Lancashire suffers fewer shortages in elementary staff, associate professionals, and manager when compared to the North West and England.
• On the other hand, Lancashire has greater levels of skills shortages in Machine operatives, sales and customer services staff and skilled trades occupations than the North West or England.
• This pattern – which is mirrored by data on hard-to-fill vacancies – indicates that the majority of current skills shortages in Lancashire are in mid-level skills.
• However, this pattern may change as technological drivers produce changes in sectoral and occupational structures.
|
Employment change by sector and occupation 2018-2028
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201977
• Between 2018-2028 Lancashire is projected to experience similar changes in sectoral employment to the UK.
• Key anticipated employment growth sectors in Lancashire are:
• Construction;
• Professional, scientific and technical;
• Administration and support;
• Health and social work; and
• Arts, entertainment and recreation.
• Sectors projected to shrink in terms of employment include:
• Agriculture;
• Mining and quarrying;
• Manufacturing;
• Energy;
• Water and waste; and
• Public administration and defence.
• These sectoral shifts are projected to link to changes in Lancashire’s occupational mix, with falls in demand for Process, plant and machine operatives (linked to a projected decline in manufacturing employment associated with digitisation and automation), and a decline in demand for Administrative and secretarial occupations (linked to digitisation and automation).
Occupation change 2018-28
Sector change 2018-2028
Source: Oxford Economics analysis for the Lancashire Labour Market Intelligence Toolkit, 2018
|
Skill levels – present supply and future demandExisting qualification Levels
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201978
Projected employment change by skill level 2018-2028
• Lancashire currently has a lower proportion of residents with NVQ Level 4+ qualifications than the North West and UK and a higher proportion of those with Level 3.
• Projections of demand for qualifications to 2028 show increased demand for NVQ Level 3 and 4+ with declines in demand for Levels 1 and 2, and a significant fall in demand for those with no qualifications – Lancashire is projected to experience a larger decline in the demand for those with no qualifications than the UK overall.
• Thus, there is a challenge for the local economy to upskill its existing workforce and to ensure that the next generation of workers has the qualifications necessary for the skill-hungry economy of the future.
Source: Oxford Economics analysis for the Lancashire Labour Market Intelligence Toolkit, 2018
10% 10% 9%
9% 8% 9%
13% 13% 14%
16% 16% 15%
19% 18% 16%
32% 35% 37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Lancashire North West UK
No quals Other NVQ 1 NVQ 2 NVQ 3 NVQ 4+
4%5%
-5% -4%
16%
-7%
6%8%
-3% -2%
18%
-5%-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
NVQ 4+ NVQ 3 NVQ 2 NVQ 1 Other No quals
Lancashire UK
|
Educational attainment
• Schools, colleges and universities in Lancashire drive the
future talent pipeline.
• The picture of current educational performance across
Lancashire varies depending on the metrics used.
• Looking at the proportion of residents attaining Level 3
qualifications by age 19, Lancashire outperforms the
North West and England.
• Looking at the proportion of Key Stage 2 pupils reaching
expected their expected level in reading, writing and
mathematics the Lancashire average is on a par with that
of England.
• However, there is significant variation in Key Stage 2
attainment at the local authority level with some local
authorities (i.e. Blackpool, Burnley, Hyndburn and Pendle)
significantly underperforming by this metric.
• The Lancaster average of key stage two attainment is
weighted upwards by the strong performance of some of
its other local authorities.
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201979
Source: Department for Education, 2016
59%
57%
56%
57%
54%55%55%56%56%57%57%58%58%59%59%60%
Lancashire North West England MinusLondon
England
% of attainment of Level 3 by age 19
51%48%
45%
59%58%
48%50%
46%
57%
64%
57% 57%59%
56%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Local authorities Lancashire England
54%53%
Source: Department for Education, 2016
% of pupils at KS2 reaching expected level in reading, writing and maths
|
School leavers destinations
• In Lancashire, a higher proportion of
students go into higher education than in
the North West or England as a whole –
however, there is significant variation
between Local Authority Districts.
• A smaller percentage of Lancashire’s
students move into Further Education than
in the North West and England. While the
percentage of students moving into
apprenticeships matches the regional
average and is marginally higher than that
of England.
• Further Education provision in Lancashire, is
mainly rated Outstanding or Good. But
there is room for improvement.
Stakeholder consultations indicated
concern that current funding levels to FE
colleges were inadequate to meet expected
needs.
• The relative fit of the future talent flow
with the local economy’s needs depends on
the subject choices of students – the next
two slides summarise subject choices in
Further Education and Higher Education.
DRAFT: Lancashire Local Industrial Strategy: Evidence Base August 201980
Source: DfE, 2017
Ofsted Rating Number of FEI
Outstanding 17
Good 18
Requires Improvement 7
Inadequate 1
No data available 38
Source: DfE, Find and compare schools in England, March 2019
Ofsted Ratings for Schools/Colleges (16-18 years)
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