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New Challenges in Russian Energy Sector: Towards Energy Efficiency
and Innovations
Alexey GROMOV
Ph.D, Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
Seminar “The Transformation of the Russian Energy Sector”
FOI, Stockholm, 15th April 2011
Institute for Energy Strategy (IES): Analytical Center for development and
monitoring of Energy strategy of Russia
Forecasting Center for world oil and gas market prices
Scientific Center for sustainable energy development for energy corporations
Consulting Center for energy safety and energy efficiency on the regional, branch and corporate levels
Information and Statistic Center aggregating facts about operating Energy Sector of Russia
Publishing house (magazines, statistical yearbooks), scientific and technical, public and business issues
2
www.energystrategy.ru
State Energy Policy in Russia
Rational market environment
Advanced standards and regulations
Subsoil resources
management
Development of home energy
markets
Formation of rational energy balance
Social policy in the energy
sector
Regional energy policy
External energy policy
Scientific, technical and innovative policy
Strategic initiatives
Energ
y se
curit
y
Energ
y ef
ficie
ncy
of e
cono
my
Econo
mic
effi
cien
cy o
f FEC
Ecolo
gica
l sec
urity
of F
EC
Management of state property
13
Program of long-term development
of the fuel and energy complex of
the Russian Far East
Conception of the long-term
development of the Russian
Federation for the year 2020
Strategy of development of
the power generation in the Russian Far East
Long-term forecast of the development of Russian economy for the years
2009-2030
Eastern Gas
Program
General scheme of allocation of power
generating facilities for the year 2020
General scheme of development of the oil industry for the year
2030
General scheme of development of the gas industry for the
year 2030
Conception of the state
program for exploration and
exploitation of the
continental shelf of the
Russian Federation
ES-2030
State program of energy saving
Investment programs of energy companies
Energy Strategy is a key document for Russian Energy Policy
14
165,9172,6 175,2
188,1
203,7213,2
245,2
167174,1
166,8
183,3 182,4194,8 199,5 204
222,6
101,5 105,3 106,2 104,4 108,8
90,9 95,286,6
93,2101,7 103,5 107,9 108,6 104
233,9227,5
117,3125 130,2 130,8
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 г. 2001 г. 2002 г. 2003 г. 2004 г. 2005 г. 2006 г. 2007 г. 2008 г.
млн т
производственнаямощностьразрезов
добыча угля наразрезах
производственнаямощность шахт
добыча угля нашахтах
213 25
8 299
316
301
226 30
5 369
394
402
132
171 20
3 212
206
148
201
242 25
5
258
345
429
502528 507
374
506
611649 660
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 г. 2015 г. 2020 г. 2025 г. 2030 г. 2010 г. 2015 г. 2020 г. 2025 г. 2030 г.
млн т
Разрезы Шахты Всего
Минимальный вариант Максимальный вариант
ES-2030
Target Modeling
ES-2030: from FORECAST to TARGET MODELING
15
1ST STAGE 2ND STAGE 3RD STAGE
Growth of national economy and quality of life of the population
Overcoming the crisis in the Economy and Energy sector
Modernization of Energy sector
Increase of power efficiency and energy saving in the Economy and Energy sector
Innovative development of Energy sector
New oil and gas fields development (Arctic shelf, Eastern Siberia and the Far East)
Highly effective use of traditional power resources
Switch to the Energy of the Future
2020 202220152013 20302009
ES-2030: a Logic of its Realization
16
7
1st stage (up to 2012-2015) - post-crisis development
2nd stage (up to 2020-2022) - energy
efficiency development
3rd stage (up to 2030) - innovative
development
Energy Sector financial “donor”of the national
economy
1990-20092009-2015 2015-2022
Energy Sector«innovative designer»
of the national economy’s structure
Energy Sectorinvestment «engine»
of the national economy
Innovative Energy Sector
2022-2030
Current state 1st stage 2nd stage 3rd stage
ES-2030: a Change of Role of Energy Sector
17
Efficiency of reproduction, extraction and processing of energy resources
Modernization and construction of new energy infrastructure
Energy and ecological efficiency of the national economy and energy sector
Stable institutional environment in the energy sector
Further integration of the Russian energy sector into the global energy system
Aim
Goals
Innovative and efficient energy development
ES-2030 : Aim and Goals
18
ES-2030: towards Energy Efficiency
20
62
82-83
89-90
% 3166 mln t СО2-equivalent
Emission of greenhouse gases in Russia will not exceed the level of 1990.
ES-2030: successive stabilization of CO2 emissions
21
11
Energy intensity of GDP (by PPP) in the world
0,120,14
0,16 0,16 0,16
0,22
0,28
0,21
0,26
0,1
0,5
0,230,21
0,53
0,49
0,16
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
0,35
0,4
0,45
0,5
0,55
0,6
Italy
UK
Japan
France
Germ
any
USA
Canad
a
RUSSIA
Norway
Sweden
Finla
nd
Beloru
ssia
Ukrai
ne
Kazak
hstan
China
WORLD
Technological backwardness of some industries
Prevalence of “heavy” energy-intensive industries
in national economy
Severe climatic conditions
Underestimated price of energy resources in home
market, which doesn’t stimulate energy saving
Reasons of high energy intensity of Russian economy
Specific allocation of population and industry; necessity for extensive
transport communications
t o
.e./
10
00
US
D
12
Barriers for energy saving and energy efficiency in Russia
Lack of motivation
Lack of information
Lack of experience in financing projects in
energy saving and energy efficiency
Lack of organizational and coordinating skills
•Budget constraints•Comparatively low energy tariffs•Cross-subsidizing•Shortage of controlling tools in energy consumption
•Weak informational support of measures in energy saving and energy efficiency•Stereotyped energy-wasteful behavior
•Exacting requirements for projects in energy saving and energy efficiency from investment banks
•Increase in energy efficiency is not perceived as a cure for a wide range of economic and social problems
1
2
3
4
13
Potential for energy saving in Russia
Heat supply9,9
Transportation13,1
Industry14,2
Living apartments18,3
Electroenergetics15,2APG combustion
5,5
Fuel production5,3
State institutions5,2
Agriculture3,6
Services, construction
9,6
45% of the current
consumption
Consumption of energy resources can be reduced by:
20% in heat supply
30% in electroenergetics
40% in transportation and industry
50% in living apartments
Strategic targets in energy saving and energy efficiency in Russia
President D.A. Medvedev: reduction of energy intensity of Russian GDP by 45% by the year of 2020 (compared with the level of 2007)
Energy Strategy 2030: reduction of energy intensity of Russian GDP by 2.5-3 times by the year of 2030 (compared with the level of 2007)
14
Key directions of the Russian energy policy forenergy saving and energy efficiency
Housing and communal services
Rational utilization of APG, RES
Effective use of energy resources in
industry•Wide-scale introduction of equipment controlling energy consumption•Obligatory standards for energy efficiency for new and reconstructed buildings•Modernization of heat and water supply systems•Introduction of energy saving technologies in outdoor lighting, sanitation and etc.•Provision state organizations with legal rights for allocation funds obtained from energy saving
•Elimination of infrastructure, technological and legal barriers for rational use of APG (increase in APG-utilization coefficient up to 95%)•Wide-scale introduction and use of RES (5-fold increase in electricity production on the basis of RES)•Top priority of decentralized heat- and power supply systems, rational use of local RES and modern technologies and equipment in the Siberia and Far East
•Ban against energy-wasteful technologies•Obligatory standards for energy efficiency•Development of energy services•Modernization of statistical accounting in the sphere of energy saving and energy efficiency•Energy audit of all the enterprises on a regularly basis•Monitoring of energy saving programs
Rationalization of prices for energy resources in home market
Informational support of arrangements in energy saving and energy efficiency aimed at alteration of wasteful stereotypes of energy
consumption among population
15
Investment in energy saving and energy efficiency in Russia
Total investment volume: 320 billion USD*
End users
Effect for:
* Official exchange rate, 2007
National economy•Saving of 80* billion USD•Payback – 4 years
•Saving of 120-150* billion USD•Payback – 2-3 years
!The cost of energy saving and improvement of
energy efficiency in Russia is 3 times cheaper
than expansion of energy resources’ extraction
16
Expected results of energy saving and increase in energy efficiency in Russia
Saving of 240 bln m3 of natural gas, 340 bln kilowatt-hour of electric power, 90 mln t of coal and 45 mln t of oil and oil products
Increase in revenues from extra export of oil and natural gas:84 – 112 bln USD
Decrease in governmental expanses:3 – 5 bln USD
Improvement in competitiveness of national economy under conditions of growing tariffs for energy resources
Reduction in СО2 –emissions: 790 mln t/year (Volume of emissions in 2030 = 80% of 1990’s level)Improvement of ecological situation in the country
Rise of national status in resolving global ecological problems
1
2
3
4
5
EU and Russia cooperation: common opportunities
10
Energy efficiency Modernization and Innovations
EU-Russia Centre for energy innovation
Common investment in Russia
Cooperation in renewable energy Interconnection of power systems
Heating efficiency in Russia: EU experience is needed
Cooperation in smart greed development
Regional and municipal energy cooperation
Import of equipment and technology
Thank you for your attention!
Institute of Energy Strategywww.energystrategy.ruTel. +7(495) 698-52-34
Е-mail: gromov@guies.ru
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