New directions in theoretical discussions, empirical ... · (2011) Join Statement on Comprehensive...

New directions in theoretical discussions,

empirical research and practical

cooperation for China-CEE cooperation

in the global framework

Katarzyna Anna Nawrot

Outline of the main issues

• Current directions of the relations and cooperation between Central and

Eastern European countries and China

• Institutional mechanisms of bilateral and multilateral relations

Pattern of trade between Poland and China in the context of the CEEs and the EU

Investment flows between CEE and China

Other forms of institutional dialogue and cooperation between Poland and China

• The possible new directions, dimensions and fields of cooperation

• Importance & implications

Current state and directions of the cooperation

between CEE, Poland and China

• long history of a relationship between Poland, CEE and China

• the bilateral relations of modern time at the new dimension:

New Silk Road idea => One Belt, One Road Initiative => 16+1

framework – milestone for strengthening the cooperation between

China and CEEs countries

• Billateral cooperation and agreements

Poland =>

Join Statement on Strategic Partnership

(2011)

Join Statement on Comprehensive Strategic

Partnership (2016)

Multilateral collaborations – regional CEE level

Within the 16+1 Dialogue Poland:

•chairs the Secretariat for Central and Eastern European

countries in Beijing, 2012

•runs Secretariat for CEEC of the Contact Mechanism

for Investment Promotion Agencies of China and CEEC

in Warsaw, 2014

•runs Secretariat of China CEEC Business Council; with

the goal to gather chambers of commerce and other

business associations, 2014.

Institutional mechanisms of bilateral and multilateral

relations – stylized facts

• pattern of trade between Poland and China in the

context of the CEECs and the EU

• investment flows between CEE and China

Pattern of trade between Poland and China in the

context of the CEECs and the EU

• the dynamics and directions of the trade flow

• the structure of the trade flow

Foreign trade between Poland and China in 1995-2015

(in million PLN)

-9,6%

-7,2%

-4,8%

-2,4%

0,0%

2,4%

4,8%

7,2%

9,6%

12,0%

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

(Sh

are

in

%)

(Va

lue

in

mln

PL

N)

Trade balance Share of exports to China in total Polish exports

Share of imports from China in total Polish imports Value of Polish exports to China

Value of Polish imports from China

Source: author’s own elaboration based on Polish Statistical Office data.

Predictions of foreign trade between Poland and China

in 2016-2030 (in million PLN)

-160000

-120000

-80000

-40000

0

40000

80000

120000

160000

20000020

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

(Va

lue

in

mln

PL

N)

Trade balance Value of Polish exports to China Value of Polish imports from China

Source: author’s own elaboration based on Polish Statistical Office data.

Other forms of dialogue and cooperation between CEE

and China

4 levels of cooperation

•national,

•regional – CEE

•EU

•Interregional/global

NEW forms and directions of

dialogue and cooperation

between CEE and China

1) Collaboration and engagement with non-

state actors

2) Collaboration for shared goals and

values

•Cities and megacities and megaregions

• The importance ??

FIH

LOS

CAI

OSATYO

JKT

BLR

MNL

CCU

KHI

DAC

BOM

DEL

SZX

TSN

CKGCAN BJS

SHA

LONPAR

MOW

IST

RIO

BUE

SAO

MEX

LAX

NYC

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Population (million), 2015, 2030

Africa Asia Europe Latin America North America

HI

UMI

LMI

Mean

Rate of growth

of population,

1950-2015

and 2015-2030

(%)

DAR FIH

LOS

CAI

LAD

JNB

OSATYO

SGN

AMDHYDLHE

JKTMAA

BLR

MNL

CCU

KHI

DAC

BOM

DEL

CTU

BKK

SZX

TSN

CKGCAN BJS

SHA

LONPAR

MOW

ISTBOG

LIM

RIO

BUE

SAO

MEX

LAX

NYC

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Population (million), 2015

Africa Asia Europe Latin America North America

HI

UMI

LMI

LI

Mean

Rate of growth

of population,

1950-2015

(%)

HI

UMI

LMI

LI

HI

UMI

LMI

LI

HI

UMI

LMI

LI

Chengdu

Shenzhen

Tianjin

Chongqing

Guangzhou

Beijing

Shanghai

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Population (millions), 2015, 2030

Mean

rate of growth

of population,

1950-2015

and 2015-2030

(%)

Urban population increase in 2014-2050

source: own study based on World Urbanization Prospects, UN, 2014 Revision.

Megacities in Europe

Delta Metropolis

Oresund region

Saxon Triangle

Centrope region

CRUS cluster

Existing Polish-Chinese regional partnership

• Lower Silesian (Dolnośląskie) – Anhui

• Kuyavian-Pomeranian (Kujawsko-Pomorskie) – Hubei

• Lublin (Lubelskie) – Henan

• Lubusz (Lubuskie) – Hainan

• Łódź (Łódzkie) – Guangdong and Sichuan

• Lesser Poland (Małopolskie) – Jiangsu

• Masovian (Mazowieckie) – Shandong and Hebei

• Opole (Opolskie) – Fujian

• Subcarpathian (Podkarpackie) – Guanxi-Zhuang

• Pomeranian (Pomorskie) – Shanghai

• Silesian (Śląskie) – Liaoning and Shaanxi

• Warmian-Masurian (Warmińsko-Mazurskie) – Heilangjiang

• West Pomeranian (Zachodniopomorskie) – Guangdong.

• cargo railway routs between Poland and

China:

Chengdu - Łódź

Souzhou - Warsaw

• cooperation at the provincial, county,

municipality levels

• city-oriented collaboration

The possible directions,

dimensions and fields of

cooperation

Conclusions 1: Dimensions for

collaboration• Urban infrastructure

• Transport

• Social protection issues

• Social inclusion issues

• Multiculturalism

• Access to water

• Secure sewerage

• Expropriation of land

• Security

Common fields for discussion and

collaboration• megacities development versus environmental protection; the earth; agricultural

land

• transport system and its efficiency

• megacity center and its dynamics (depopulation of the city center)

• progressive deindustrialisation; development / revitalization of post-industrial areas

• the need to develop areas with contaminated soil

• revitalization of suburban areas

• protection and preservation of cultural / historical heritage

• improvement of housing and living conditions of informal habitats

• improvement of housing conditions of suburban areas / periphery

• problem of social exclusion

Further challanges

• growing urban poverty

• urban inequality

• social inclusion vs. exclusion

• galloping urbanization

• the problem of uncontrolled influx of society

• social problems - social care, health, access to safe water sources

• social exclusion

• slums

• access to infrastructure

Final message: need of

• Collaboration and engagement with non-

state actors: cities and megacities

• Collaboration for shared goals and values

• Collaboration for public goods

• Transcultural collaboration

•

• Megacities might be more efficient places than

central governments to address developmental

issues if properly governed, thus serving as a

basis for a

new urban-based development model.

Thank you for your attention !

Katarzyna Anna Nawrot

Department of International Economics

k.nawrot@ue.poznan.pl