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NFFO and SRO Features: - Scope limited to grid-connected electricity generation Fixed-term, fixed-price contracts offered for purchase of electricity Support only given to the renewable technologies listed in the Order - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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NFFO and SRO
Features: -• Scope limited to grid-connected electricity
generation• Fixed-term, fixed-price contracts offered for
purchase of electricity• Support only given to the renewable technologies listed in the Order• Scale (in terms of MW capacity) for each technology restricted to figure quoted in the Order• Competitive bidding within each technology
band: lowest bids in terms of pence/kWh are offered contracts
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1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
MW
cap
acit
yContracted Installed
0
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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
MW
cap
acit
y
Contracted Installed
NFFO and SRO
Analysis for England and Wales (upper graph) and Scotland (lower) shows that completion rates for
projects were initially very high.
But in later years, difficulties arose in the planning process, particularly for wind farms and
waste incineration plant. Completion rates then fell well
below 50% in both regions.
Present UK arrangements: the Renewables Obligation
Licensed electricity suppliers must obtain a specified percentage of their output from renewable sources (steadily rising: will be 10% by 2010)
Additional costs incurred may be passed on to customers: there will be no subsidies
Possible arrangements for trading of “Green Credits”, or purchasing exemption from the Obligation
Existing NFFO and SRO contracts to be maintained.
The future for “immature” technologies is threatened: electricity producers will inevitably go for the
cheapest renewable sources, at present on-shore wind energy, land-fill gas or waste incineration.
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10
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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
en
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n, m
toe
domestic industrial transport others
Recent energy demands and future projections from the UK Cabinet Office, 2002
Note the steady
increase in total energy
demand, and the very rapid rise in the transport
sector
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20
40
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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
en
erg
y s
up
ply
, mto
e
coal oil gas nuclear others
Sources of supply for total UK primary energy demand, from the UK Cabinet
Office, 2002
Note the continuing decline of
coal and the rapid
expansion of gas usage.
Is this wise? – we are now a net importer
of gas.
A revival of nuclear power
is NOT anticipated!
Stabilisation of atmospheric carbon dioxide
Extracts from an article by Aitken,
Billman and Bull in
Renewable Energy World,
volume 7 number 6, 2004
Study covers total primary energy, not just electricity
Best current estimates on: -
• population growth
• GDP per person
• primary energy intensity
to predict growth in energy demand to 2100
Gaps between total energy demand and carbon fuel consumption under a range of scenarios
Possible omission – no consideration given to carbon sequestration processes from fossil fuels
Conclusion – no realistic chance of CO2 stabilisation at current levels of 350 ppm: need zero carbon emissions from about 2045!
Scenario – stabilise CO2 at 550 ppm
But how damaging is that likely to be?
Stabilisation of CO2 at 550 ppm: required growth of zero-carbon energy sources to 2030
Recent growth rates in wind
energy markets
Recent growth rates in the
photovoltaic energy market
A possible future
scenario of energy
production which would
stabilise atmospheric CO2 levels at 550 ppm by the year
2100
Roughly speaking, we need an extra 10% from renewables each decade up to 2050, withsmaller increases thereafter; 80% in total by the year 2100
Projections from the study are: -
• a rapid growth in biomass
• steady expansion of wind, solar and geothermal sources
• no significant expansion of nuclear power or hydro
• no significant contribution from marine energy
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