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LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP
November 14, 2011
NOAA: Storms and Drought: Climate Change Impacts on the West
Presented by Eric Boldt
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE WEST
My story
You were thinking this?
The diverse climate and terrain in the Western U.S. results in annual rainfall of less than 5 inches in the deserts to more than 200 inches per year in the mountains.
√ True or
X False?
Poll Question
Diverse Climate & Terrain in the West
Wettest in the mountains
Driest in the deserts
Los Angeles County in Southern CA
LA
Coast-Valleys 0-1500 ft
Mountains 6000-10000 ft
Winter Stormsfloods
Heavy Precipitation
Strong Winds
Small Tornadoes
and waterspouts
High Surfand rip currents
Large WavesDecember 21, 2010
Western Storm Impacts
“Atmospheric Rivers” are known as…
a. A little known rock band from the Midwest
b. Rivers that flood when it rainsc. Plumes of tropical moisture in the
atmosphered. Jet streams
Poll Question
Amount of water vapor in the atmosphere to generate precipitation
Atmospheric Rivers associated with heavy precipitation events
Wetter
December 17-22, 2010
Atmospheric River brings 15-25 inches of rain to southern
CA in 5 days.
ARkStorm is a USGS led project to model the impacts of a catastrophic flood event in California.
The term “Atmospheric River” is used to explain the moist conveyor belt associated with Pacific storms. Also known as the “pineapple express.”
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/
NASA/NOAA project to measure Atmospheric Rivers
Aircraft drone
NASA’s Global Hawk launched from Edward’s AFB in February 2011
WISPAR – Winter Storms and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers project measured water vapor content from approaching storms during February 2011.
Flight path of NASA’s Global Hawk for a mission in February 2011
What severe weather phenomenon results in the most annual fatalities in the U.S.?
a. Tornadoesb. Lightningc. Flash floodsd. Hurricanes
Poll Question
Heavy precipitation days have increased (measurable trend)
Increase in the amount of daily precipitation over North America that falls in heavy events
Increase in precipitation intensity is consistent with the observed increases in atmospheric water vapor
Precipitation intensity is a key component of severe weather.
Flash floods, debris flows, and snowfall intensity can be very destructive and life-threatening.
Winter storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent,
with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights.
Source – www.globalchange.gov
More powerful storms will increase threats to life…
…and property
Time For Questions
???
Droughtheat waves
wildfires
How important is mountain snowpack for water supply in the Western U.S.?
a. Not that importantb. Somewhat importantc. Importantd. Very important
Poll Question
Nearly 75% of the water supply in the Western
U.S. comes from mountain snowpack
65% in California – source Dept. Water Resources
WOW!
Departure from normal snow depth for February 27, 2011
Lake Oroville, CA – Feb. 2008
Drought seriously depletes water resources
Winter Summer Winter
When the West would normally get precipitation it was abnormally dry.
January 2011
Drier
Drier
Annual Precipitation - % Change
Heat waves impact health mainly due to.....[place clip art on a box below]
High humidity Warm nights Existing health issue
• warm overnight temperatures• prolonged temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal• combination heat and humidity makes it feel hotter• poor air quality and smoke compounds health impacts
Heat Waves
Increase in the percentage of very warm nights over North AmericaIncrease in the percentage of very warm nights over North America
Warm night temperatures will increase
...On average excessive heat claims more lives each year
than floods, lightning, tornadoes and hurricanes
combined...
Source – NWS
Temperature Change
Wildfires
Are fires becoming more frequent?
Are they more severe?
What do you think? Are wildfires more severe than in the past?
[place clip art on a box below]
Yes
No
Don’t know
Poll Question
More acres burned per fire
National Interagency Fire Center – wildland fire statistics
More total acres burned annually
Other factors are involved like disease, forest age, politics, causes, or is it climate change?
Time For Questions
???
Monsoonflash floods
Most areas of Northwest Mexico and the Southwest U.S. receive over half their annual
precipitation from the monsoon
Source – NWS Tucson, AZ
Winter Summer Winter
Monsoon depends on winds and heat to transport moisture from the Gulf of California
Monsoon moisture brings summer thunderstorms to much of the Rockies. Flash floods, and in some cases, wildfires, are caused by these storms.
Average monsoon start dates by decade 1950s July 1 1960s July 2 1970s July 2 1980s July 6 Latest on record (7/25/1987) 1990s July 3 2000s July 7 Earliest on record (6/17/2000)
Will climate change impact the monsoon? ...possibly
Other Severe Weather
tornadoes hurricanes
Do tornadoes occur in California?
a. Yesb. No c. Don’t know
Poll Question
Riverside, CA 2008
Pt. Mugu, CA 2008
Sacramento, CA 2005
Long Beach, CA 2009
In southern California – this 1200 sq. mile area has the highest frequency of tornadoes west of the Continental Divide
J. Hales study 1997-1998 El Niño (32 events in 21 days)
Tornado history across the United States – since 1950
There is no clear trend in the frequency or strength of tornadoes
since the 1950s for the United States as a whole...
...however, the frequency of favorable conditions for severe
thunderstorms is likely to increase.
Source – www.globalchange.gov
Have tropical cyclones occurred in California?
a. Yesb. No c. Don’t know
Poll Question
1858 Hurricane – San Diego1939 Tropical Storm – Long Beach
3 other known tropical cyclones have impacted the SW – California, Arizona
Hurricane Linda 1997
Tropical Cyclone Storm Tracks
As ocean temperatures rise, the strongest
hurricanes are likely to increase in both the
eastern Pacific and the Atlantic.
Source – www.globalchange.gov
Time For Questions
???
Climateobservationsresources
More than 11,000 volunteers take observations on farms, in urban and suburban areas, National Parks, seashores, and mountaintops.
COOP – Cooperative Observer Program
CoCoRaHS is a grassroots volunteer network of backyard weather observers of all ages and backgrounds working together to measure and map precipitation (rain, hail, and snow) in their local communities.
NOAA Global Monitoring ExhibitN W S L o s A n g e l e s / O x n a r d , C A
www.weather.gov
RECAPWinter storms bring many types of severe weather to the West
Drought severely impacts water resources
Heat waves and wildfires may get worse
The monsoon is critical for desert Southwest precip
Tornadoes and hurricanes do occur in California
Opportunities for climate observing and NWS resources
Eric BoldtWarning Coordination MeteorologistNational Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard
eric.boldt@noaa.gov
FOR LISTENING!
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This web seminar contains information about programs, products, and services offered by third parties, as well as links to third-party websites. The presence of a listing or such information does not constitute an endorsement by NSTA of a
particular company or organization, or its programs, products, or services.
http://learningcenter.nsta.org
National Science Teachers AssociationDr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director
Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs
Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-Learning
LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP
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Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator
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