North Caucasus and Central Asia. NORTH CAUCASUS l

North Caucasus and Central Asia

NORTH CAUCASUS

www.rjgeib.com/.../chechnya/chechnya.html

AGENDA1. Introduction

2.Chechen conflict, timeline

3.Russian position in this conflict

4.Reasons for the desaster

5.Additionally other country profiles

6.External actors

7.Difficulties and possible solutions

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/russia_auton96.jpg

www.hrvc.net/htmls/map.htm

County Profile

Chechnya Dagestan Ingushetia

status Republic within RF Republic within RF Republik within RF capital Grozny Makhachkala Magas population 1 mio 2,2 mio 300 000 major religions

Islam, Christianity Islam Islam

major languages

Chechen, Russian Different languages Ingush, Russian

resources oil oil, gas, agriculture Head of state Alu Alkhanov Mukhu Aliyev Murat Zyazikov

Timeline: Chechnya

Chronics: until 1858: decades of resistance against russian conquerors 1934: Chechen-Ingush Autonomous Soviet Solialist Republic 1944: Stalins retribution for chechen colloboration with Nazi-regime: deportation 1957:Khrushev restores the Republic of the year 1934

Chechen war : chronics

● 1991: Declaration of independency (Dudajew), only Afghanistan recognizes the state „Ishkeria“

● 1994 -1996: first war result: autonomy, but no independence

● 1997-1999: Maskhadow (chechen leader )could not bring the country under control

● 1999: chechen-dagestanian border: attempt to create an islamic state, terror attacs in Russia

● 1999 – 2000: second warhttp://www.dw-world.de/image/0,,661054_1,00.jpg

http://img.stern.de/_content/53/74/537449/Maschadow500_500.jpg

chronics officials chechen „leaders“

● Since 2000: Moskow loyal Kadyrow years, Putin declares direct rule from Moskow

● 2003: referendum vote of the new constitution (C. as a part of RF); Kadyrov elected president

● 2004: Kadyrov killed,Alkhanov is president

● 2005: new parliament● 2006: son of Kadyrow

becomes prime minister

● 2005 Maskhadov killed

● 2006: his successor Saydullayev killed

● July 2006: warlord Basayev killed

● Dokka Umarov has to unite the different gangs (b-list)

Shamil Basayev Profile

-born 1965-briefly studied in Moskow land management-became later computer salesmancareer as a chechen fighter:-1.1995: hospital siege; Budyonovsk,southern Russia, 100 people killed-10.2002: Moskow theatre siege, 129 hostages die-8.2004:suicide bombers kill 10 people outside metro in Moskow-9.2004: gunmen seize school in Beslan, 331 died-10.2005:attac in Nalchik,Russia; scores killed consequenses of his death:consequenses of his death: power has to be structured in a new way, this might

provoke new conflicts within clans which desire more control or power in Chechnya by claiming important positions for „their“ people all information and pictures: www.bbc.com

10.7.06

ChechnyaState/nation building

security welfare Rule of law Relations to RF

different taips Chechen-dagestanian border

Ecological disaster Conflict in the government

Finacial dependence on Russia

originally no hierarchy

militarisation arms deal, drug traffic

Many people want to emigrate

Delinquency is solved by traditional judiciary

Intervention in neighbour regions

no infrastructure corruption

kidnapping no health or education system

abuse of human rights

Russian anti-terror-operations

nepotism “violence-apparat”of Kadyrow-clan

varios warlords economic crisis problematical legimacy

high crime rate

State/ nation building

security welfare Rule of law Relations to RF

different clans

territory not clearly defined

barely industrialized, agriculture

no structure in the administration

in 1991 wish to belong to Russia

much terroristic violence

2/3 of the people are unemployed, extreme poverty

no governmental organs

After 1991 disappointment Because of Russian promises to help I. in North- Ossetia question

Worse situation than in Chechnya

corruption

nomenclatura, legimaticy crisis

INGUSHETIA

Dagestan

state/nationbuilding security welfare Rule of law Relations to RF 14 biggest ethnic groups

Frequency of terroristic actions increases

poverty first chairman held his office by now

loyal, renounced their souvereignty rights in 1991

collegial rotation system

fundamentalistic gruops, islamistic opposition

High unemployment rate

head of state is appointed by russ. president

balance between different interests

Civil war without clear fronts (not yet escalated)

Ecology and economy nonfunctional

no real legimacy

Very complex ethnic composition

characteristics

Complex ethnitical construction structural problems „clan-society“ many beneficiaries of the conflict distabilisation from russia radicalisation of the fronts international war on terror hinders IO to express open their opinion on russian war in chechnya

FAU Erlangen-NürnbergInstitute for Political SciencePS: Failed and Fragile StatesPresentation by Emma Hauer 28.062006

State Failurein

Central Asia

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

Where is Central Asia?

Structural Problems in the Central Asian states?

1. General economical decline after independence:• discontinuation of financial subsidies from Moscow• disruptive privatisation; exclusion from the rouble zone• massive out-migration of Russians and other Russian-speakers vacuum in key

positions in administration and economy• industrial development backward; primarily supplier of raw materials

2. Difficult process of state- and nation-building:• embryonic states; never existed as modern national-states before• old Soviet nomenclature still powerful political transformation?• multiethnic states (forced and voluntary immigration by dozens of other

nationalities)• disputes over borders and land (administrative borders do not follow ethnic and

linguistic lines) • weak sense of national identity

Developments after independence

1. Socio-economic situation:• increasing unemployment and poverty of the major part of the population• worsening living standards: decline of infrastructure, health and educational

systemsprecarious situation especially for youth: higher rates of illiteracy, drug use, unemployment etc.borderland Afghanistan became a factor of instability: rapidly expanding gun and drug trade; refugees

2. Political situation:• development to non-democratic, repressive and authoritarian political

systems• police forces much more powerful than militaries (but: corrupt, criminal)• declining public support for the governments• worsening of ethnic and state relations• in spite of state repression and persecution of Islamic groups, spread of

underground Islamist activism

Various Types of State

How fulfil the Central Asian States the core functions of Security, Welfare, Legitimacy

and Law state?

1) Kazakhstan

-+/-+/-

- no separation of power

- limited freedom of speech

- repression of opponents

- irregularities of elections

- huge corruption

- abuse of human rights (torture in prisons)

+ no direct threat for physical security for major part of civilians

+ stability of currency

+ increasing gross domestic product

+ wealthiest state

- after independency general decline of intrastructure, health and educational systems

- rural living standards lower

- clientelism and corruption

+ security function in the hands of government

+ no major internal and external threats

+ seemed to be the most stable Central Asian state

- in spite of strict border controls: drug traffickers - refugees from Tajikistan, uzbekistan, Afghanistan etc.

Legitimacy and Law state

WelfareSecurityState core functions:

2) Uzbekistan

--+/-

- highly repressive police state

- no legal political opposition; persecution of regime opponents

- increasing pressure on NGOs and civil society

- huge abuse of human rights (torture and brutality of police forces)

- worsening corruption

- economic sector dominated by state and a small elite

- concentrated wealth in the hands of a tiny elite

- no significant private sector

- increasing poverty and unemployment

- children, students forced to work in cotton fields in order to fulfil state cotton quotas

+ not at risk of imminent collapse

- aggressive and chauvinistic behaviour could become centre of instability in Central Asia

- rising social discontent

- May 2005 Andijon uprising regime presents threat to civilians

Legitimacy and Law state

WelfareSecurityState core functions

3) Kyrgyzstan

+/---/+

- limited political rights

- occasional repression of opponents

- fraudulent elections

- increasing pressure on human and civil rights

+ parliament more powerful

+ NGOs not persecuted

+ political parties allowed

+ civil society

+ still the most pluralistic+ and liberal Central Asian state

- increasing unemployment and poverty

- property redistributed to small elite

- decline of educational and health systems

- low attendance to schools

- massive out-migration

- increasing rates of HIV-infections and drug consumption

- government lost control over public security

- worsening of political violence

- increasing social discontent public revolt against Akaev May 2005

+ regime change relatively peaceful; Akaev accepted his overthrow

Legitimacy and Law stateWelfareSecurityState core functions:

4) Turkmenistan

---/+

- Turkmenbashi built up a personality cult

- absolute control of all political and economical power

- political parties prohibited

- persecution of non-official religious groups

- discrimination and repression of ethnic and religious minorities

- huge abuse of political and human rights

- serious economic problems

- largely poverty and unemployment

- lack of private business and foreign investments; companies controlled by Nijazov

- collapse of health and educational systems

- cult of personality replaced regular education ideological indocrination of the youth

- underground political struggle within the country

- increasing public opposition towards regime

- clan and ethnic divide various clans competing for political and economical power

- increasing presence of criminal and terrorist groups

+ internal conflict not broke out yet

Legitimacy and Law state

WelfareSecurityState core functions

5) Tajikistan

-/+--

- political system fragile and prone to violence

- president controls parliament; judiciary used against opposition

- fraudulent elections

- nepotism and widespread corruption

+ only Central Asian state with a politically relevant opposition

- collapsed economy

- extreme poverty; highest rate of unemployment

- widening gulf between wealthy elite and major rest

- one million dependent on int. food aid

- destroyed infrastructure

- educational and health systems collapsed

- school attendance dropped sharply

- internal conflict: peace agreement under threat

- large territories outside governmental control

- inner-ethnic conflicts

- geography encourages regionalism

- border to Afghanistan difficult to control drug-trafficking, illegal guns trade, refugees and terrorists

Legitmacy and Law state

WelfareSecurityState core functions

failing state+/---/+Kyrgyzstan

failed state-/+--Tajikistan

failing state---/+Turkmenistan

weak state--+/-Uzbekistan

weak state-/++/-+/-Kazakhstan

Type of statehood

Legitimacy and Law state

WelfareSecurityCentral Asian states

Characteristics & Future Prospects for the Region

● threat of Islamic fundamentalism not imminent in Central Asian states

● but: political repression of religious groups could lead to a radicalisation

● development to non-democratic and authoritarian political systems could become a major risk factor for instability

● continuation of the war in Afghanistan will lead to a worsening of the socio-economic and political situation in Central Asian states, particularly in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

Overview

1. Burka Band2. Country Profile3. State- and nationbuilding4. Democratization5. State-/violence6. Socio-/oeconomic situation7. Summary8. Characteristics

AfghanistanThe Burka Band

...........my mother wears blue jeans now, and i am so surprised; the things are changing faster, i don´t know if it´s

right......

Übersicht Afghanistan

Afghanistan Country Profile

• Population: 31.056.997 (July 2006 est.)• Capital: Kabul• Religion: 99% Muslim • Literacy: 36% • Life

expectancy: 43.34 years• Head of State/

President: Hamid KARZAI

Analysisstate- and nationbuilding

19th century: Colonialism1923: Monarchy1978-1989: Afghanistan under sovjet rule1989-2001: Afghanistan und the rule of Taliban2001-2006: Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

Democratization

• Bonn agreement• Government consists of:

– Warlords/Mujaheddin – „west oriented“ politicians

Democratization?

Attention: Is democratization possible?

Obstacles:• lack of human rights and security

• destroyed infrastructure

• no economy

• lack of any political system

Different interests by different forces!

Democratization?

• Warlords/ Mujaheddin: Territory soverignity/independent fromthe governmentDrug/gun trafficking/ partly Taliban

• Politicians: realization of the interests of U.S./ U.N. Low acceptance by the citizens

State-/ Violence

Warlords/MujaheddinNATO/ISAF

New Afghan National Army (ANA)Afghan National Police (ANP) (trained by external acotrs of force)

U.S/U.N

InternalExternal

Socio/-oeconomic situation

• Agricultur/ mostly Opium cultivaton: 87% of the world supply

• Weak economy: small-scale production of textiles, soap...

• Low average level of education

-+/--

- repression in different regions- irregularities of elections- huge corruption- abuse of human rights - direct threats for the civil population and ngo´s- weak governmental system in the regions

-poor state

- general lack of intrastructure, health and educational systems-low living standards

-clientelism and corruption

+ ngo´s stabilized the medcare in some regions

- security function in the hands of external and internal actors no monopoly by the government- internal and external threats- drug traffickers/gun traffickers- refugees intrastate- homing refugees from borderlands-weak borders

Legitimacy and Law stateWelfareSecurity

● Afghanistan is a failed state● Was the ad hoc intervention of the U.S. a success?

Are their similarities to Iraq?● Different Interests:● U.S./NATO: military base in middle asia● Warlords: don´t want to share their power● Borderlands: profits from gun/drug trafficking strengthening the power of

islamic fundamentalist

Characteristics