Northern part Central part Southern part

Regional Workshop on:

“Methodologies to Assess Socio-economic Impacts of Natural Disaster”

CASE STUDY OF ECLAC's METHODOLOGY

ON ASSESSING SOCIO-ECONOMIC

IMPACT OF FLOOD IN VIETNAM

Bangkok, 19 – 21 October 2005

Contents: 1. Preliminary introduction on flood in Vietnam. 2. Assessment of sosio-economic impacts of natural disaster in Vietnam 3. Some results of case study of eclac methodology 4. Comments on new issue of case study 5. Some recommendations

1. Preliminary introduction on flood in Vietnam.

Vietnam territory is divided into 3 sub-regions under geographic position. Topography and weather of the region have special characteristics.

The situation of disasters in these regions have different features

Northern Northern partpart

Central Central partpart

Southern Southern partpart

Disaster with high appearance

- Inundation

- Typhoon

- Flood

- Cyclone

Disaster with medium appearance

- Hail

- Drought

- Landslide

Disaster with low appearance

- Earthquake

- Frost

River FloodingRiver Flooding

Flash floodsFlash floods

TyphoonsTyphoons

Natural Disasters in

Vietnam Natural Disasters in

Vietnam

Storm SurgesStorm Surges

Not on map:• Droughts• Salt water intrusion• Forest fire

FLASHFLOOD FLASHFLOOD HAZARD MAPHAZARD MAP

Typhoon Tracks

DecembeDecemberr

JuneJune

Northern region of Vietnam includes two parts: Mountainous sub-region and Red-Thai Binh river delta. RRD is plain area it has elevation varies from 0.4 meters to 9 meters.

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Along the Red and Thai Binh rivers are very complicated dyke's system that had been built in many decades before. The system is maintained every year. Management of the dyke system is one of the very important duties of our DDMFSC.

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Design Design W.LW.L

River Dyke Cross Section SampleRiver Dyke Cross Section Sample

Sea Dyke Cross Section SampleSea Dyke Cross Section Sample

Back

Flooding and dike system situation in the Red River Delta in Aug.

2002

Flooding and dike system situation in the Red River Delta in Aug.

2002

2. Assessment of sosio-economic impacts of natural disaster in Vietnam

Basic parameters:

The parameters below are specific parameters to

measure the impact of flood to socio-economic:

- Number of died people

- Number of injured people

- Number of influenced people

- Number of broken houses

- Number of influenced houses

- Flooded area, rate of damage

- ...

The flood in 1996 in RRD caused damages

as follows:

- Number of died people: 100

- Number of injured people: 446

- Number of broken houses: 37,532

- Number of damaged house: 49,853

- Flooded rice area 277,636 ha

Non-harvested rice area 61,068 ha

Evaluating flood impact carried out from low grade to high grade

The sectors

The sectors of Social :

- Human

- Houses

- Education

- Health care

The sectors of economic:

- Agriculture

- Transportation

- Energy

In each sectors, some detail data are interested

in;

for example, in the sectors of agriculture,

data will be collected as:

- Flooded rice area (in which non-harvested area)

- Flooded upland crop area (in which non-harvested

area)

- Flooded industrial crop area (in which non-

harvested area)

- Volume of lost seed

- Died cattles

... 2001 2002

In this 2005 year fierce droughts and heats

lasted in provinces in the North, Central and

Highlands Vietnam, causing a serious lack of water

for daily living and productions.

After that storms and floods consecutively

occurred in July, August and September, killing

hundreds of people, affecting million of others,

damaging properties worth thousands of billion VND.

Fortunately, losses caused by those serious

disasters were minimized in terms of human life

and fishing vehicles, thanks to the close and

determined direction of central and provincial

authorities, and thank to initiative disaster

preparedness of population.

Storm N7 26 september 2005

Namdinh 28 september 2005

.  

Namdinh 28 september 2005

Namdinh 28 september 2005

­­

                      Một ngôi nhà sau lũ quét.

Yenbai 29 september 2005

Yenbai 29 september 2005

s. 70

3. Some results of case study of eclac methodology

Range of case stydy of ECLAC's methodology.

The chosen area for case study is Ha Dong area,

that belongs to Thanh Ha district, Hai Duong

province. Dyke of the area was broken in

flooded season 1996 and the process of flood

can be simulated in detail by linkage of one

and two dimensions hydraulic and dykebreak

model.

Impacting on agriculture includes direct

and indirect impacts. Direct impact is

assessed for cultivation, livestock and

aquaculture.

In direct impact is assessed for litchi crop.

Impact to import &

export

Sectors

Total

damage

Direct

damage

Indirect

damage Increase

import

Decrease

export

Total 26.431,2 13.615,1 12.816,1

Cultivation

- Properties

- Season

+ Consumption

Paddy rice

Maize

Sweet potato

....

+ Using for export

and industry

Litchi & longan

....

25.673,8 12.857,7

8.672,7

201,2

50,8

...

1.476,2

...

12.816,1

5.435,2

7.380,9

8.627,7

1.476,2

Livestock

+ Animal

+ Poultry

161,2

22,2

139,0

Aquaculture 596,2

Damage value is the cost for investing to have 1

hectare of litchi (300 trees), that includes:

Cost for moving earth 26.3 Mill. VND

Seedling cost 1.5 “

Planting cost 1.2 “

Fertilizer cost 0.3 “

Total 29.3 “

And the loss without harvest of litchi area in 5 years after the inundation

Overall impact of dyke break

Categories Damage value Rate (%)

Agriculture 26.431,2 18.36

Trade 3.920,6 2.72

Housing 111.604,3 77.54

Rural roads 1.976,3 1.37

Total 143.932,4 100.00

House damage has very high rate, in which,

thatched cottage had been damaged heavily.

The owner of the house type is poor people,

they need to be helped when flood happened.

Damage value of rural roads is not very high,

but this is public assets, so it needs to have

measurement to overcome for serving

development of other sectors.

4. Comments on new issue of case study

Indirect damages and measuring them

In the damage statistic table of the years 2001, 2002 in

particular and in assessment of disaster damage in general,

indirect damage has not been interested.

The reason of that could be the rate of indirect damages

for socio-economic in the past was relatively small in

comparison with direct damages. For instant, damage of rice

area by flood is direct damage, indirect damage of the crop

was not appeared.

2002

In present and future, under the policy of changing

economic structure, the part of rice area will be changed to

cultivate other crops or change to animal husbandry,

aquaculture that have more economic effect than rice

cultivation.

In term of case study for longan, litchi, indirect damage

value is higher than direct damage. The same result could be

received for other goods as clean vegetable, fish pond for

aquaculture.

Detail damage assessment of sub-sectors

To assess disaster damage, each sector should be

divided into some sub-sectors. It needs to collect

and process more information and refer opinion

of many experts.

For the sector has high damage rate, such as houses,

dividing the sector into sub-sectors and degree of

accuracy of information in each sub-sector will effect

to much to calculating results of damage. For example,

only changing information in the following table,

we will get the different results.

No House type Area

(m2)

Value

(Mil. VND)

Damage

rate (%)

1 Villa 200 560 10

2 House with concrete frame 150 263 15

3 House with concrete roof 120 134 15

4 House with tiled roof 100 42 20

5 Thatched cottage 7 60

Determining priorities in process of consequence overcome

Results of the case study presented that, detailed

assessment of flood damage allow us to carefully analyze

impacted sectors.

- Damage of rice production will cause bad impacts of socio-

economic,

- Damage on infrastructure increases and occupies big rate in

total damage. The damage of house occupies high rate of

infrastructure damage, in which. the type of thatched cottage

(owned by poor people) was damaged mostly serious.

- Infrastructure system of RRD have been built in many

years with very big investment (includes government

investment and private investment), so to overcome the

flood consequence, it needs very big contribution of people

in flooded area and outside aid.

5. Some recommendations

Indirect assessment of damage:

Because economic structure of Vietnam is changing

to increase of industry and service, so indirect

damage by flood, in particular, and by disaster, in

general, in some sectors will not be small.

Hence, along with assessing direct damage,

it need to apply ECLAC's methodology to assess

indirect damage in some important sectors such

as aquaculture, small & medium service and industry.

Assessing entire impact of disaster:

Although agricultural area of RRD ocupies large

rate, but rate of agricultural GDP is not high and

has decresing trend.

The damage rate of industry and service will be

very high. Hence, the application of ECLAC's

methodology for assessing damage is very necessary.

Applying ECLAC's methodology to compare

socio-economic damage in the case with diverting

floods and without diverting floods if big flood

happen.

t r µn­h¸ t ­m«n

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Day dam engineeringDay dam engineering

The results of entire damage assessment

with and without diverging freshets will contribute

important argument's basics, that assists relative

office to propose opinions to the Government,

that will decide diverting floods

Applying ECLAC's methodology to assess

Macro-economic impacts of natural disaster in

Vietnam. It is an important and difficul problem.

Ind_04s. 36

Thank­you­for­your­attentions­