View
216
Download
1
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
990114/AGR 1
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
NRIC Focus Group One
Subcommittee 1Network Assessment
January 14, 1999
Gerry RothVice President
GTE Technology Programs
This document and the information contained herein is intended, and for all purposes shall be deemed, a Year 2000 statement and a Year 2000 readiness disclosure as those terms are defined under United
States federal law
990114/AGR 2
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Scope of Effort• Provide assessment of Year 2000 compliance of Public Switch Telephone
Network (PSTN)– Participants:
• 7 Large Local Exchange Carriers (LEC) 98.5% • 22 Medium to Small Local Exchange Carriers .5%• 3 Large Inter-Exchange Carriers (IXC) 82.0%
– For addition in April following FCC questionnaire• Wireless• Cable• Satellite
• International Assessment– Presentation by relative risk and potential impact of Year 2000 non-compliance – Risk to U.S. ranked by traffic volume
• Methodology– Direct query of Large Local Exchange Carrier and Inter-Exchange Carrier
Participants in November• September 1998 and December 1998 (estimates)
– Indirect query of medium and small Local Exchange Carriers• September 1998 only
– International• 6 data sources--risk assessments weighted and combined• Correlation to 1997 international calling patterns from/to the U.S.
990114/AGR 3
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Participating Local Exchange Carriers & Inter-Exchange CarriersIndustry Coverage
Coverage by Participating Inter-Exchange Carriers(as a percentage of 1997 Total IXC Revenue)
Total 95.1BParticipating 78.3B
Coverage by Participating Local Exchange Carriers(as a percentage of Total U.S. Access Lines)
Total 193.6MParticipating 190M
Participating Companies
99%
Others1%
Participating Companies
82%
Others18%
990114/AGR 4
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Y2K AssessmentCoverage by Participating Carriers
Participating Companies Others
990114/AGR 5
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Y2K Lifecycle Compliance StatusLarge and Medium Size Local Exchange Carriers
September 30, 1998
Large Companies Midsize and Small Companies
94%
71%
54%
62%
47%
39%
50%
84%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Awareness Renovation Validation Implementation
990114/AGR 6
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Y2K U.S. Public Switched Telephone Network Compliance StatusLarge and Medium Size Local Exchange Carriers
September 30, 1998
Large Companies Midsize and Small Companies
% Switches Y2K Ready % Non-Switch Network Components Y2K Ready
% Network & ISApplications Y2K Ready
63% 64%62%65%
60%
73%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
990114/AGR 7
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Y2K Lifecycle Compliance StatusRate of Change
Large Local Exchange Carriers
September - December 1998
94%
71%
54%
62%
98%
86%
74%
81%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
September 30, 1998 December 31, 1998
Awareness Renovation Validation Implementation
990114/AGR 8
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Large Local Exchange Carrier Compliance StatusRate of Change
September - December 1998
73%
63% 64%
85%
79%
86%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
September 30, 1998 December 31, 1998
% Switches Y2K Ready % Non-Switch Network Components Y2K Ready
% Network & ISApplications Y2K Ready
990114/AGR 9
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Public Switched Telephone Network Y2K Readiness Major Inter-Exchange Carriers
December 31, 1998
% Switches Y2K Ready % Non-Switch Network Components Y2K Ready
% Network & ISApplications Y2K Ready
74%
84%84%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
990114/AGR 10
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Leve
l of
Ris
k Medium
Low
International Status by Region Perceptions of Risk
High
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cen
t &
So
uth
Am
eric
a
Su
b S
ahar
a A
fric
a
Ind
ian
su
b c
on
tin
ent
Eas
tern
Eu
rop
e (i
nc.
Ru
ssia
)
Mid
dle
Eas
t &
No
rth
Afr
ica
(no
t Is
rael
)
Asi
a P
acif
ic
No
rth
Am
eric
a
Wes
tern
Eu
rop
e (i
nc.
Isra
el)
Regional Average
Score
The scores blend such that the following score ranges apply: 4.1 - 5.0 = Low Risk 3.1 - 4.0 = Medium Risk 1.0 - 3.0 = High Risk; based on uncertainty
Regional Range of
Responses
990114/AGR 11
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
International Status by CountryPerceptions of Risk
Afg
hani
stan
Ban
glad
esh
Col
umbi
aE
gypt
El S
alva
dor
Gua
tem
ala
Laos
Nig
eria
Som
alia
Vie
tnam
Zai
reN
epal Kuw
ait
Arm
enia
Cos
ta R
ica
Ecu
ador
Eth
iopi
aS
audi
Ara
bia
Mor
occo
No.
Kor
eaR
oman
iaU
rugu
ayY
ugos
lavi
aK
enya
Sri
Lank
aC
ambo
dia
Chi
na
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Level of Risk
Low
Medium
High
The scores blend such that the following score ranges apply:4.1 - 5.0 = Low Risk3.1 - 4.0 = Medium Risk1.0 - 3.0 = High Risk; based on uncertainty
Zim
babw
eLi
thua
nia
Phi
lippi
nes
Mex
ico
Ven
ezue
laA
rgen
tina
Cha
d Moz
ambi
que
Rus
sia
Indi
aIn
done
sia
Bra
zil
So.
Kor
eaD
enm
ark
Isra
elJo
rdan
Pak
ista
nP
uert
o R
ico
Tha
iland
Tur
key
Sou
th A
fric
aH
unga
ryG
erm
any
Italy
Japa
nM
alay
sia
Aus
tria
Bul
garia
Cze
ch R
epF
ijiP
olan
dS
udan
U.A
.E.
Fin
land
Tai
wan
Bah
rain
Chi
leF
ranc
eB
elgi
umN
ew Z
eala
ndN
orw
ayP
ortu
gal
Sw
eden
Sw
itzer
land
Car
ibbe
an Is
.H
ong
Kon
gN
ethe
rland
sP
eru
Sin
gapo
reA
ustr
alia
Can
ada
Irel
and
Spa
inB
erm
uda
Pan
ama
UK
US
A
990114/AGR 12
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
International Status by CountryPerceptions of Risk Impact
Col
umbi
aE
gypt
Kuw
ait
Sau
di A
rabi
a Chi
na Phi
lippi
nes
Afg
hani
stan
Ban
glad
esh
El S
alva
dor
Gua
tem
ala
Laos
Nig
eria
Som
alia
Vie
tnam
Zai
reN
epal
Arm
enia
Cos
ta R
ica
Ecu
ador
Eth
iopi
aM
oroc
coN
o. K
orea
Rom
ania
Uru
guay
Yug
osla
via
Ken
yaS
ri La
nka
Cam
bodi
aZ
imba
bwe
Lith
uani
a
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Impact of Failure
Level of Risk
Low
Medium
High
HighImpact
MediumImpact
LowImpact
The scores blend such that the following score ranges apply:4.1 - 5.0 = Low Risk3.1 - 4.0 = Medium Risk1.0 - 3.0 = High Risk; based on uncertainty
Ger
man
yIta
lyJa
pan
Hon
g K
ong
Aus
tral
iaC
anad
a UK
US
A
Mex
ico
Ven
ezue
laA
rgen
tina
Rus
sia
Indi
aB
razi
lS
o. K
orea
Isra
elP
uert
o R
ico
Sou
th A
fric
aM
alay
sia
Aus
tria Tai
wan
Fra
nce
New
Zea
land
Sw
itzer
land
Car
ibbe
an Is
.S
inga
pore
Spa
inB
erm
uda
Cha
d Moz
ambi
que
Indo
nesi
aD
enm
ark
Jord
anP
akis
tan
Tha
iland
Tur
key Hun
gary
Bul
garia
Cze
ch R
epF
ijiP
olan
dS
udan
U.A
.E.
Fin
land
Bah
rain
Chi
le Bel
gium
Nor
way
Por
tuga
lS
wed
en Net
herla
nds
Per
uIr
elan
d Pan
ama
990114/AGR 13
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Countries of Major and Significant Interest to the U.S.(as determined by Intercontinental Traffic Patterns, sorted by Perceived Risk)
* Minutes of use from 1995 Data (Source: ING Barings - Telecommunications Map of the World, 2nd Edition, September 1997)
Col
umbi
a (3
16)
Jam
aica
(23
1)
Chi
na (
283)
Phi
lippi
nes
(338
)
Indi
a (3
37)
Bra
zil (
385)
So.
Kor
ea (
460)
Isra
el (
285)
Ger
man
y (9
53)
Japa
n (8
99)
Ital
y (3
83)
Dom
inic
an R
epub
lic (
508)
Tai
wan
(38
0)
Fra
nce
(544
)
Sw
itzer
land
(21
3)
Hon
g K
ong
(418
)
Net
herla
nds
(246
)
Aus
tral
ia (
351)
UK
(1,
716)
El S
alva
dor
(144
)
Gua
tem
ala
(129
)
Ecu
ador
(14
6)
Sau
di A
rabi
a (1
12)
Trin
idad
& T
obag
o (1
01)
Gre
ece
(117
)
Ven
ezue
la (
177)
The
Bah
amas
(10
2)
Arg
entin
a (1
89)
Rus
sia
(105
)
Tha
iland
(11
9)
Pak
ista
n (1
16)
Sou
th A
fric
a (1
01)
Pol
and
(165
)
Chi
le (
111)
Sw
eden
(14
4)
Bel
gium
(13
9)
Sin
gapo
re (
151)
Per
u (1
46)
Spa
in (
177)
Irel
and
(152
)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Millions of Minutes
Level of Risk
Low
Medium
High
Major Interest> 200M Minutes
Significant InterestBetween 200M - 100M Minutes
Country Name (Millions of Minutes)
990114/AGR 14
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Y2K Risk to U.S. Intercontinental Traffic (determination of risk by country of originating / terminating traffic)
* mMiTT: million Minutes of Intercontinental Telecommunications Traffic
Source: Telecommunications Map of the World, 2nd Edition, September 1997
Medium Risk4728 mMitt*
Low Risk5599 mMitt*
High Risk1645 mMitt*
36%
21%
43%
990114/AGR 15
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Year 2000 Assessment Conclusions• General
– All participating companies are progressing at approximately the same rate
– Small companies somewhat behind the larger ones
– Progress to date is very encouraging
– All participating companies on a trajectory for timely completion of PSTN
– Results of this study become a good benchmark for non participating companies to follow
• Local Exchange Carriers (LEC)– Participating LECs cover 99% of all switched access lines in U.S.
– Small to medium companies lag large Local Exchange Carriers by 10-15%
– All participating companies were better than 65% complete by September 1998• December estimate at 76%
• Readiness– All large companies projecting readiness complete June 30, 1999
– Medium and small LECs• 50% by end of 2nd Quarter 1999• 32% by end of 3rd• 18% by end of 4th
– Participating companies are 29/1300 = 99% of all access lines
• 1271 companies constitute the remaining 1%
990114/AGR 16
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Conclusions
• Inter-Exchange Carriers (IXC)
– Participating IXCs represent 82% of inter-exchange market
– Most network elements have been certified compliant and are being rolled out
– Participating IXCs will be in a position to support the LEC completion date of June 30, 1999
– Major IXCs at 60% readiness or better as of September 1998
• December estimate at 81%
– All IXCs project a June 30, 1999 readiness
990114/AGR 17
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Conclusions
• International
– North America, Asia Pacific, and Western Europe are medium to low risk
– North East Asia, Middle East & North Africa, and Eastern Europe are medium to high risk
– Central & South America, India & Subcontinent, Sub Sahara Africa are high risk
– Regions and countries of most concern to U.S. identified
– Regional impact of risk varies widely by country and telecom provider
– Most information is based on perception of risk or is anecdotal -- based on inconsistent and unofficial information
990114/AGR 18
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Recommendations• Increase activity in Wireless assessment led by FCC
• Map key U.S. Government installations nationwide to telecom compliance areas
• U.S. Government engage in direct inquiry on Y2K status to countries determined essential to U.S. telecommunication traffic patterns
– Work with the ITU, U.S. State Department, and others to accurately assess the true risk to the U.S.
• Add the risk of methodology inconsistencies to perceived completeness of plans
– Specifically test deficiencies
– Effective quality programs
• Assess results of this study with respect to other economic sectors to determine potential secondary risks and impacts
990114/AGR 19
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Recommendations
• A more proactive role should be undertaken by the FCC (working the appropriate government offices) to support those countries requesting assistance from the ITU and World Bank and/or that have high telecommunications traffic with the U.S.
• For countries whose Year 2000 readiness may be an issue to U.S. companies, we recommend that the FCC assign an International Contingency Planning Coordinator to support interested U.S. companies in their contingency planning around regions or specific countries that are perceived to be high Y2K risk
990114/AGR 20
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Summary
• Public Switched Wireline and Long Distance Telephone Operations in the United States (and North America) appear to be on an appropriate path for Year 2000 compliant operations
• More and better information is required for a complete global assessment, including wireless and cable operations
• Lack of information in and of itself does not necessarily indicate lack of progress
990114/AGR 21
NRIC Focus Group I, Subcommittee 1Year 2000 Readiness of the Telephone Industry
Final .v1
Future Work
• Marry FCC questionnaire results in NRIC sources for a more inclusive report
• Update International data sources and measure their improvement
• Re-question the LEC and IXC data sources for: – validation of December 1999 data– Actual data for February 1999– Estimation targets for March 1999
• Increase Wireless participation and measure their network completion
Recommended