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Offshore Wind PowerOffshore Wind Power
Willett KemptonCenter for Carbon-free Power IntegrationCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Environment
University of Delaware
UD Energy Workshop
26 April 2010
Willett KemptonCenter for Carbon-free Power IntegrationCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Environment
University of Delaware
UD Energy Workshop
26 April 2010
Offshore Class Machines
• RePower 5M (shown), installed in 45 m of water
• Vestas V90-3.0 (2 years in production)
• Siemens 3.6 MW (but 50 Hz)
• Clipper 10 MW (produce in UK, 2009)
• GE 3.6s (3+ years in water, not in production)
Tower enables depth range, thus resource
Land-based, monopile, jacket, spar buoy
Art: NY Times Magazine
US Developments Proposed
The conventional Wisdom on Energy
• US wind Mainly in the Plains
• All renewables are small
• Renewable energy is expensive
• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time
• Wind is intermittent
MISO Joint Coordinated System Plan
Wind power beyond the coast?
• No airport meteorological towers
• Many wind maps stop at the coast
• How to measure?
• (Met buoys and satellite-QuikSCAT)
QuikSCAT
Pimenta, Kempton and Garvine (2008)
Imag
e c
red
it:
NA
SA
Imag
e c
red
it:
Bra
zili
an
Navyvs
Met. buoy
Estimating turbine production
Imag
e:
Rep
ow
er
Sys
tem
s A
G
Power curve of REpower 5M
QuikSCATturbine output
1999-2008
RE 5M
Imag
e:
Rep
ow
er
Sys
tem
s A
G
kWa
The conventional Wisdom on Energy
• US wind Mainly in the Plains
• All renewables are small
• Renewable energy is expensive
• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time
• Wind is intermittent
The conventional Wisdom on Energy
• US wind Mainly in the Plains
• All renewables are small
• Renewable energy is expensive
• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time
• Wind is intermittent
Power Units• 1 Watt = an iPod playing
• 100 Watt = light bulb
• ~1 kWa (1,000 Watt) = a house (a=average)
• ~5 MW (5,000 kW) = wind turbine capacity
• ~2 MWa = wind turbine, average output
• ~1 GWa (1,000 MW) = Delaware
• 73 GWa = the mid-Atlantic (MA to NC)
• 450 GWa = the United States
Large resource on Mid-Atlantic
• Examine resource of entire Mid-Atlantic
• Vs. load
GWavg
Electricity 73
Cars 29
Heating 83
total 185
Needs vs. Resource
GWavg
Electricity 73
Cars 29
Heating 83
total 185
m Excl GWa
0-20 0.46 60
20-50 0.40 117
50-100 0.10 153
Total 330
All of electricity, cars and heating uses 2/3 of the wind resource, dropping regional CO2 by 68%.
Drill, Baby, drill?
• How much oil in the entire Atlantic OCS?
• Compare delivered energy from Atlantic
• Offshore wind 330,000 MWa
• OCS oil 18,000 MWa (during 20 years)
• Wind > 18 times oil !from: Kempton et al Geophysical Research Letters 2007
Reduce oil imports?
• One electric car draws 400 Wa (.4 kWa)
• Mid-Atlantic cars draw 29,000 MWa
• Atlantic OCS oil could run 20% of Mid-Atlantic cars ... for 20 years
• Offshore wind would run 100% of Mid-Atlantic cars....
Reduce oil imports?
• One electric car draws 400 Wa (.4 kWa)
• Mid-Atlantic cars draw 29,000 MWa
• Atlantic OCS oil could run 20% of Mid-Atlantic cars ... for 20 years
• Offshore wind would run 100% of Mid-Atlantic cars....
Reduce oil imports?
• One electric car draws 400 Wa (.4 kWa)
• Mid-Atlantic cars draw 29,000 MWa
• Atlantic OCS oil could run 20% of Mid-Atlantic cars ... for 20 years
• Offshore wind would run 100% of Mid-Atlantic cars.... forever
The conventional Wisdom on Energy
• US wind Mainly in the Plains
• All renewables are small
• Renewable energy is expensive
• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time
• Wind is intermittent
The conventional Wisdom on Energy
• US wind Mainly in the Plains
• All renewables are small
• Renewable energy is expensive
• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time
• Wind is intermittent
Context-free price comparisons are nonsense
• Electricity prices are REGIONAL
• Wind price depends on local conditions--wind speed, topography, etc
• Must compare wind price at site to the local market price
• ... Makes no sense to price “wind” versus fossil -- nor on-land wind versus offshore
High Electric Rates on Coast
Note: Map information is based on PJM data for a single day at peak demand
Source: Conectiv Energy
● Congestion raises prices all along Mid-Atlantic coast (map shows PJM East).
● Limited generation
and transmission causes congestion.
● Generation offshore would address both problems.
2
What about Price for the Delaware case?
• In Delaware, the local utility is buying dirty power at 11 ¢/kWh
• A 450 MW size, offshore wind contract came in at 9.9¢/kWh
• (It doesn’t matter what electricity costs elsewhere)
• And, significant costs are going on other parties' ledgers ...
But don’t get me started on Price!
• Delaware: 25-years of payments for electricity (450 MW, @ 2.5% discount rate)
• Investment ~ $1B to $1.6B
• Total payments sum $3.6 billion
• Two years arguing whether <5% over or under “market” (± $180 million)
• Health benefit of project was $1 B NPV
• But PSC couldn’t consider this, required to evaluate electric price only
The conventional Wisdom on Energy
• US wind Mainly in the Plains
• All renewables are small
• Renewable energy is expensive
• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time
• Wind is intermittent
The conventional Wisdom on Energy
• US wind Mainly in the Plains
• All renewables are small
• Renewable energy is expensive
• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time
• Wind is intermittent
The conventional Wisdom on Energy
• US wind Mainly in the Plains
• All renewables are small
• Renewable energy is expensive
• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time
• Wind is intermittent
You can't make that many wind turbines!
• 108 GWa supplies all electric plus all cars
• Assume that each wind turbine is 5 MW nameplate at 40% CF, so 2 MWa average output
• Requires 54,000 wind turbines for mid-Atlantic
• Can we do this in 50 years?
• Have we ever done this before?
B-24E (Liberator), 1942
WW II Aircraft Production(1,000s)
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
Total
US 2 6 19 48 86 96 46 331
World 33 47 72 121 188 231 95 770
And that’s not to mention all the tanks, ships & guns!
54,000 for East Coast by year 4
How would we actually build those turbines?
• A WWII production effort would do it in four years.
• But what if we don’t have a WWII (politically)?
• How many factories are needed?
• How fast to build without WWII urgency?
Rosie the Riveter Poster by J. Howard Miller
How many factories?
• One factory, five days/week, three shifts-- roughly 350 turbines/year.
• Assume similar rate for towers, blades
• How long to make 54,000 turbines?• One factory takes 154 years, e.g.,
way too late for climate change• To build 54,000 in 30 years takes 5
factories; in 15 years, 10 factories• So, need 5-10 manufacturing
complexes, depending on desired speed of CO2 cuts
The conventional Wisdom on Energy
• US wind Mainly in the Plains
• All renewables are small
• Renewable energy is expensive
• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time
• Wind is intermittent
The conventional Wisdom on Energy
• US wind Mainly in the Plains
• All renewables are small
• Renewable energy is expensive
• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time
• Wind is intermittent
Transmission N-S on Shelf
• Weather data from each station S1 - S11
• Transmission "pools" power
• How much smoothing of output?
Transmission N-S on Shelf
• Weather data from each station S1 - S11
• Transmission "pools" power
• How much smoothing of output?
• Individual simulated wind farms, such as S2, S10 show frequent, rapid fluctuation in output
• Power from combined grid changes more slowly, rarely reaches min or max power
• Easier to manage, higher value
• Single stations have many high or zero values
• Combined grid clusters around mid-range values
The conventional Wisdom on Energy
• US wind Mainly in the Plains
• All renewables are small
• Renewable energy is expensive
• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time
• Wind is intermittent
The conventional Wisdom on Energy
• US wind Mainly in the Plains
• All renewables are small
• Renewable energy is expensive
• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time
• Wind is intermittent
ENDENDMore information:
www.carbonfree.udel.edu
Thanks to:Delaware Sea Grant
Delaware Green Energy FundCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, U Delaware
More information:
www.carbonfree.udel.edu
Thanks to:Delaware Sea Grant
Delaware Green Energy FundCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, U Delaware
FERC Office of Enforcement, Increasing Costs in Electric Markets , Item No.: A-3 , June 19, 2008
PV
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