Oil, int’l macro and geopolitics Torbjörn Becker Director, Stockholm Institute of Transition...
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- Slide 1
- Oil, intl macro and geopolitics Torbjrn Becker Director,
Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) @ Stockholm
School of Economics www.hhs.se/site torbjorn.becker@hhs.se
- Slide 2
- Points to discuss A few notes on supply and demand Global
warming, carbon taxes etc? Macro is back Traditional
reserves/production and demand who are the major players on both
sides Winners and loosers of shale gas/oil BRICS and energy
Emerging markets overtaking developed countries in terms of
economic size Russia
- Slide 3
- Simply Supply and Demand but Short vs long run TK focused on
structural factors that are important for long-run price trends
(climate policies?) Short run factors still create enormous
variation in prices with uncertain forecasts link with macro
Partial vs general equilibrium First-round price effects from new
supply sources and reduced demand will affect economic activity and
also incentives for future investment in both enhancing supply and
reducing demand Emerging markets will be very important for how
this evolves, both on supply and demand side
- Slide 4
- Useful forecasts?
- Slide 5
- Fluctuations in economic activity and in the outlook are the
primary determinant of short-term commodity price movements, with
some caveats. . commodity-wide factors have mainly reflected common
macroeconomic developments IMF 2012
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- Oil supply (2012)
- Slide 7
- Oil demand (2012)
- Slide 8
- Growth forecast (2011-2017 USD BNP, IMF)
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- Oil reserves
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- Gas reserves
- Slide 11
- Winners and Loosers? Time perspective crucial Transition
processes triggered by oil price swings are likely to be messy in
countries where autocratic political power structures are based on
extraction revenues How many oil nations can develop by just
extracting oil? Can Russia catch up with West just by
extraction?
- Slide 12
- Oil supply vs political freedom 7/7 6/6 1/1 1/1(?) 6/5 2/2 ?/?
5/5 6/6 4/5 5/5 4/4 Political rights/Civil liberties, 1 is best, 7
worst (Freedom house)
- Slide 13
- WB: Subsoil wealth of nations ($/capita)
- Slide 14
- Total wealth of nations ($/capita)
- Slide 15
- Putins Russia
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- Oil price drives Russian GDP
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- Russian exports, all about extraction
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- Russian government budget, half is oil and gas
- Slide 19
- Medvedevs awakeing The crisis made the dependence on oil and
gas and need for reforms obvious Russia forward! in Sept 2009
Agenda Innovations (Skolkovo=Silicon Valley) Energy efficiency
International financial center Fight corruption, Law and order
E-government Putin and higher oil prices has changed the sense of
urgency for reforms
- Slide 20
- Thanks! Torbjrn Becker Stockholm Institute of Transition
Economics (SITE)/ stekonomiska institutet vid Handelshgskolan i
Stockholm www.hhs.se/site torbjorn.becker@hhs.se