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Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road Temple Meads Bristol BS1 6QS Phone +44 (0)117 925 7019 Fax +44 (0)117 329 1480 Email inforethinkresearchbiz
R E T H I N K T E C H N O L O G Y R E S E A R C H
ldquoL e a d in g t h e w a y w i t h i n d e p en d en t t h ou g h t a n d n o r e g u r g i t a t e d a n a l y s i s rdquo
RAN RESEARCH T HE RE SEARCH ARM OF WIRELE SS WAT CH
Authored by Caroline Gabriel
Open RAN architecture set to disrupt 5G landscape
Operator Buying Patterns to 2025
Companies mentioned in this report Airrays Airspan Allot Alti-
ostar Amarisoft Anikowave ARM Askey ASOCS Athonet ATampT
Beicells Ball Aerospace Bell Labs Bharti Airtel British Telecom China
Mobile China Mobile Research Institute China Unicom CHIPS Alli-
ance Ciena Cisco Cloud-RAN Alliance Comba Deutsche Telekom
Docomo Ericsson Facebook Fujitsu HFR Huawei H3C Innoeye
Intel KDDI Keysight KT Lenovo Linux Foundation Mavenir
Metaswitch NEC Netcracker Nokia NTT OKI ORAN Alliance Or-
ange Parallel Wireless Phluido Pivotal Commware Quanta Qual-
comm Radisys Rakuten Red Hat Reliance Jio Ruckus Wireless Sam-
sung Sercomm Singtel SK Telecom Softbank SOLiD Sprint Tech
Mahindra Telefoacutenica Telstra TIM Verizon Viavi Vodafone WiFi
Alliance Xilinx ZTE
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
2
CONT ENT S
Table of Contents 2
Table of Figures 3
Introduction 4
Many forces are driving the mobile industry towards an open RAN 5
The key drivers for an open ecosystem 5
The initiative lies with the operators old and new 7
Semi-open interfaces of the past have been inadequate 8
Operators look for ways to bypass X2 in 5G 9
CPRI shortcomings have driven push for new fronthaul standard 11
Ethernet alternatives pave way for full openness 13
The economic impact of openness will be seen in all layers of the network 15
Several open initiatives are starting to make the case for the open RAN 18
ORAN Alliance 20
ORAN makes progress with PoC tests 23
Telecom Infra Project 24
Steps to reality for TIP 27
Potential convergence of open groups 29
Small Cell Forum 30
The Open Air Interface 32
Case studies 34
Telecom Italia works with three new vendors on vRAN 34
Nokia and China Mobile 35
Rakuten claims first cloud-native multivendor mobile network 36
There are still many barriers in the way of a fully open RAN 38
How will open RAN platforms affect the pattern of 5G deployment 40
Baseline forecasts for base station deployment 42
Scenario 1 - large-scale adoption from 2022 44
Scenario 2 - at-scale deployment limited to small cell layer 46
Scenario 3 - limited deployment before 2025 50
Scenario 4ndash limited open ran but agreed to open fronthaul interface 51
Conclusions 53
Methodology 54
RAN Research Forecasting disruption in wireless 56
About Rethink Technology Research 58
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
3
TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1 Figure 1 Top drivers to adopt open architectures in the RAN ndash percentage of operators placing
each driver in their top three 8
Figure 2 The role of X2 in 4G5G interworking 10
Figure 3 The evolution of SK Telecomrsquos 4G and 5G RAN Source Netmanias 13
Figure 4 Fronthaul options related to different 3GPPIEEE functional splits in a disaggregated RAN 14
Figure 5 Projected deployment cost of a 5G macro cell open vs traditional architecture 16
Figure 6 Primary areas of impact of open architectures on the macro network - percentage of operators
placing each factor in their top two 17
Figure 7 Primary areas of impact of open architectures on the small cell network - percentage of operators
placing each factor in their top two 18
Figure 8 Selected challengers which are active in the open RAN and their key relationships with top
MNOs 21
Figure 9 Conceptual architecture of xRAN (now ORAN) Source xRAN white paper 2016 22
Figure 10 The TIP OpenRAN group 27
Figure 11 Percentage of operators active or interested in each major open mobile network group 31
Figure 12 Top barriers to adopt open architectures in the RAN ndash percentage of operators placing each bar-
rier in their top three 40
Figure 13 Total deployments and upgrades of macro and micro base stations by region 2018 to 2025 all
architectures 44
Figure 14 Total installed base of small cells by region 2018 to 2025 all architectures 45
Figure 15 In Scenario 1 deployments of open macro and micro base stations by region 2020 to 2025 46
Figure 16 In Scenario 2 deployments of open macro and micro base stations 2020-2025 47
Figure 17 In Scenario 2 installed base of open small cells 2020-2025 48
Figure 18 Deployment of open small cells by operator type 2020-2025 49
Figure 19 Deployment of open small cells indoor vs outdoor 2020-2025 50
Figure 20 In Scenario 3 total installed base of small cells all architectures 2018-2025 55
Figure 21 In Scenario 4 fronthaul and midhaul links deployed by architecture 2019-2025 53
This document contains explanatory notes and commentary to accompany the Ex-
cel spreadsheet lsquoRethink Research Open RAN Module 2018-2025rsquo The surveys and
forecasts on which the outputs are based were conducted in January to March 2019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
4
There are many ways in which operators expect 5G to be very different from
its predecessors Only some of these relate to the performance of the radio
technology itself ndash the higher data rates lower latency enhanced availability
and so on Others which could prove just as important to the economics of
deploying the new networks relate to the wider architecture the supply
chain and the deployment models
Operators hope that 5G will support an open multivendor network with an
enlarged supply chain and greater price competition and open innovation
This may always have been a goal but it has not been easily achievable be-
fore
Indeed in the 4G era the supply chain has contracted considerably because
of the consolidation of suppliers In 2019 there are five major providers of
macro base stations and for operators in countries which are restricting pro-
curement from Chinese OEMs notably the USA and Australia there are on-
ly three choices This greatly reduces price competition and encourages lock-
in
Although most MNOs have a dual-source policy for their macro RANs this
means little more than splitting the network into geographical zones with
one supplier for each and minimal need to interwork
But the industry is changing and MNOs are under unprecedented commer-
cial pressure as they move towards 5G The disconnect between rising data
usage and flatlining ARPUs is making it very difficult for most operators to
justify a significant investment in another generation of networks It is essen-
tial to their business case that costs are reduced significantly at the same
time that the new networks enable new revenue streams
Most operators report that they are finding it hard to make a firm commer-
cial case for new revenues generated by 5G ndash particularly those that harness
its low latency high availability qualities to support industrial and Internet
of Things (IoT) services Over time as the technology is enhanced and the
most promising use cases identified this perception of high risk in the reve-
nue model will change but for the first few years of a 5G deployment it is
Introduction
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
5
essential that operators can be confident of at least one improvement in
the model ndash the total cost of ownership (TCO)
One way to drive down cost will be to move towards a more open
multivendor ecosystem with high levels of vendor competition and
lower barriers to new suppliers In Rethinkrsquos analysis there are many
factors which are encouraging operators to push for a more open eco-
system But other drivers relate to a trend that is more threatening to
the established MNOs - the potential for 5G especially when it is de-
ployed in shared spectrum and with a cloud-native sliceable core to
enable new service providers and deployment models
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
6
This report is critical to anyone involved in planning to launch a 5G
network or any part of a 5G network who may specify how open that
network needs to be be that by adopting an open API or through in-
teroperability testing or adherence to one of the emerging candidate
open RAN standards This may be for network providers technology
partners implementers equipment suppliers software providers and
investors at C Suite level down to product marketing and product
planning The RAN Research arm of Rethink Technology Research is
essential reading for anyone who wants to stay on top of current trends
and thinking among MNOs Itrsquos like being a fly on the wall in their
planning meetings and is based on questions MNOs have answered
about their planned and future expenditure
This report will
Give you numbers you can drop directly your planning
It will help you understand who is already supporting the Open Ran
standard you are adopting and the market pressures on those players
It will help you understand timescales for particular approaches
In particular we have developed a 4 scenario planning tool whereby
we take an assumption and show how this will play out and affect
timeframes for various Open Ran approaches
It will help you construct a Capex plan for Open Ran
Pricing Each module of RAN Research costs $2000 for a single individual li-
cense and $4000 for a corporate license for any individual report such
as this one This is the price for ldquoOpen RAN architecture set to disrupt
5G landscape - Operator Buying Patterns to 2025rsquo and for any previous
reports The entire service can also be purchased as a subscription
which comes with 6 reports each year Ask for pricing details
How Do I buy this report Please follow links to our store pages site to buy ldquoOpen RAN architec-
ture set to disrupt 5G landscapersquo Or email nataliarethinkresearchbiz
This report has been compiled by our Head of Research Caroline Ga-
briel who can also be emailed at carolinerethinkresearchbiz
Who should buy this report
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
7
This document contains explanatory notes and commentary to accompa-
ny the Excel spreadsheet lsquoRethink Research Open RAN Module 2018-
2025rsquo The surveys and forecasts on which the outputs are based were
conducted in January to March 2019
The wireless forecasts included in this report are based on research on
the top 40 international mobile operator groups which account for 80
of the global mobile subscribers (IMG-40)
These forecasts were based on a combination of data from
bull Detailed surveys interviews and operator-by-operator modeling of
the IMG-40 groups
bull Studies and modelling of the deployments and strategies of the top
100 4G5G operators as tracked by Rethink Technology Researchrsquos
quarterly surveys interviews and desk research
bull A survey of 76 tier one operators about their detailed plans for RAN
deployments to 2025 including new architectures
bull Input from ecosystem vendors on shipments technology strategies
and competitive landscape also updated quarterly
bull Surveys of alternative cellular operators including over 45 private
cellular neutral host enterprise and carrier WiFi providers
bull A calculation of the resources required in each type of location to
achieve the MNOsrsquo stated objectives
bull A detailed proprietary model to project best and worst cases and
different scenarios according to all these inputs and a detailed list of
assumptions and variables in turn drawn from a research base com-
piled over 15 years and supported by over a decade of historic data
From the starting point of a calculation of the number of cell sites already
deployed worldwide forecasts were made of the numbers of base sta-
tions and edge nodes that would be rolled out a) to brand new sites and
b) to replace or upgrade existing sites These deployment forecasts were
then categorized by network topology spectrum band spectrum mode
region and other factors The equipment deployed in each case was also
surveyed and modeled
Appendix Methodology
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
8
Based on the surveys of operators and vendors it was then calculated
how the cell and edge sites would be equipped ndash by base station type
edge node type and location technology frequency band etc leading to
a detailed unit and market size measurement
Most of the forecasts refer specifically to nodes deployed within MNO
networks either by themselves or by partners MNOs may also make use
of third party nodes deployed outside their network and connected by
wireline or WiFi and many edge cloud services will run on infrastructure
that is not used by MNOs at all
The Rethink RAN Research process summarized
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
9
Rethink Technology Research is a specialized research and consulting firm
with 12 yearsrsquo experience in surveying wireless broadband over-the-top
and quad play operators This has resulted in a broad research base of over
140 service providers (MNOs telcos cable and satellite operators over-the-
top providers) worldwide These organizations are surveyed on a regular
basis about their network infrastructure and business plans and have a re-
lationship of trust with Rethink
Rethink also has deep relationships with the telecoms ecosystem (tier one
device OEMs vendors technology developers integrators regulators etc)
and is perceived as a thought leader in many areas of the telecoms and me-
dia sectors Key areas of expertise and research experience include HetNet
migration small cells and carrier WiFi transformation strategies for the
RAN and the BSSOSS convergence of IT and network skills and platforms
device and chipset roadmaps spectrum strategy
Here are some sample titles of reports we have produced recently
bull Will 5G really be so different after all 5G Deployment Trends 2018-2025
bull MNOs look to MEC to deliver 5G class apps Edge Computing Forecast
2018 to 2025
bull Virtualized RAN rollouts stutter ndash awaiting vendor interoperability
standards
Single User license - $2000 (One Report)
Single User subscription (This report plus 5 more) $6000
Corporate licensemdash$4000 (unlimited distribution inside your organization)
Corporate Subscription (This report plus 5 more) $10000
RAN Research Forecasting disruption in wireless
SUBSCRIPTION COSTS
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
10
RETHINK LEADERSHIP
RAN RESEARCH MAIN CO NTRIBUTORS
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
Peter White - Co-founder and CEO
peterrethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director and Co-founder
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
11
Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play and emerging wireless and
IoT technologies It offers consulting advisory services research papers
plus three weekly research services Wireless Watch a major influence
among wireless operators and equipment makers Faultline which tracks
disruption in the video ecosystem and OTT video Riot on enterprise dis-
ruption from the combination of AIIoT and cloud
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information
Natalia Szczepanek (Client Relations and Marketing Manager)
nataliarethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
12
Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel +44 (0) 1179 257019
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Published August 2018
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
2
CONT ENT S
Table of Contents 2
Table of Figures 3
Introduction 4
Many forces are driving the mobile industry towards an open RAN 5
The key drivers for an open ecosystem 5
The initiative lies with the operators old and new 7
Semi-open interfaces of the past have been inadequate 8
Operators look for ways to bypass X2 in 5G 9
CPRI shortcomings have driven push for new fronthaul standard 11
Ethernet alternatives pave way for full openness 13
The economic impact of openness will be seen in all layers of the network 15
Several open initiatives are starting to make the case for the open RAN 18
ORAN Alliance 20
ORAN makes progress with PoC tests 23
Telecom Infra Project 24
Steps to reality for TIP 27
Potential convergence of open groups 29
Small Cell Forum 30
The Open Air Interface 32
Case studies 34
Telecom Italia works with three new vendors on vRAN 34
Nokia and China Mobile 35
Rakuten claims first cloud-native multivendor mobile network 36
There are still many barriers in the way of a fully open RAN 38
How will open RAN platforms affect the pattern of 5G deployment 40
Baseline forecasts for base station deployment 42
Scenario 1 - large-scale adoption from 2022 44
Scenario 2 - at-scale deployment limited to small cell layer 46
Scenario 3 - limited deployment before 2025 50
Scenario 4ndash limited open ran but agreed to open fronthaul interface 51
Conclusions 53
Methodology 54
RAN Research Forecasting disruption in wireless 56
About Rethink Technology Research 58
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
3
TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1 Figure 1 Top drivers to adopt open architectures in the RAN ndash percentage of operators placing
each driver in their top three 8
Figure 2 The role of X2 in 4G5G interworking 10
Figure 3 The evolution of SK Telecomrsquos 4G and 5G RAN Source Netmanias 13
Figure 4 Fronthaul options related to different 3GPPIEEE functional splits in a disaggregated RAN 14
Figure 5 Projected deployment cost of a 5G macro cell open vs traditional architecture 16
Figure 6 Primary areas of impact of open architectures on the macro network - percentage of operators
placing each factor in their top two 17
Figure 7 Primary areas of impact of open architectures on the small cell network - percentage of operators
placing each factor in their top two 18
Figure 8 Selected challengers which are active in the open RAN and their key relationships with top
MNOs 21
Figure 9 Conceptual architecture of xRAN (now ORAN) Source xRAN white paper 2016 22
Figure 10 The TIP OpenRAN group 27
Figure 11 Percentage of operators active or interested in each major open mobile network group 31
Figure 12 Top barriers to adopt open architectures in the RAN ndash percentage of operators placing each bar-
rier in their top three 40
Figure 13 Total deployments and upgrades of macro and micro base stations by region 2018 to 2025 all
architectures 44
Figure 14 Total installed base of small cells by region 2018 to 2025 all architectures 45
Figure 15 In Scenario 1 deployments of open macro and micro base stations by region 2020 to 2025 46
Figure 16 In Scenario 2 deployments of open macro and micro base stations 2020-2025 47
Figure 17 In Scenario 2 installed base of open small cells 2020-2025 48
Figure 18 Deployment of open small cells by operator type 2020-2025 49
Figure 19 Deployment of open small cells indoor vs outdoor 2020-2025 50
Figure 20 In Scenario 3 total installed base of small cells all architectures 2018-2025 55
Figure 21 In Scenario 4 fronthaul and midhaul links deployed by architecture 2019-2025 53
This document contains explanatory notes and commentary to accompany the Ex-
cel spreadsheet lsquoRethink Research Open RAN Module 2018-2025rsquo The surveys and
forecasts on which the outputs are based were conducted in January to March 2019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
4
There are many ways in which operators expect 5G to be very different from
its predecessors Only some of these relate to the performance of the radio
technology itself ndash the higher data rates lower latency enhanced availability
and so on Others which could prove just as important to the economics of
deploying the new networks relate to the wider architecture the supply
chain and the deployment models
Operators hope that 5G will support an open multivendor network with an
enlarged supply chain and greater price competition and open innovation
This may always have been a goal but it has not been easily achievable be-
fore
Indeed in the 4G era the supply chain has contracted considerably because
of the consolidation of suppliers In 2019 there are five major providers of
macro base stations and for operators in countries which are restricting pro-
curement from Chinese OEMs notably the USA and Australia there are on-
ly three choices This greatly reduces price competition and encourages lock-
in
Although most MNOs have a dual-source policy for their macro RANs this
means little more than splitting the network into geographical zones with
one supplier for each and minimal need to interwork
But the industry is changing and MNOs are under unprecedented commer-
cial pressure as they move towards 5G The disconnect between rising data
usage and flatlining ARPUs is making it very difficult for most operators to
justify a significant investment in another generation of networks It is essen-
tial to their business case that costs are reduced significantly at the same
time that the new networks enable new revenue streams
Most operators report that they are finding it hard to make a firm commer-
cial case for new revenues generated by 5G ndash particularly those that harness
its low latency high availability qualities to support industrial and Internet
of Things (IoT) services Over time as the technology is enhanced and the
most promising use cases identified this perception of high risk in the reve-
nue model will change but for the first few years of a 5G deployment it is
Introduction
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
5
essential that operators can be confident of at least one improvement in
the model ndash the total cost of ownership (TCO)
One way to drive down cost will be to move towards a more open
multivendor ecosystem with high levels of vendor competition and
lower barriers to new suppliers In Rethinkrsquos analysis there are many
factors which are encouraging operators to push for a more open eco-
system But other drivers relate to a trend that is more threatening to
the established MNOs - the potential for 5G especially when it is de-
ployed in shared spectrum and with a cloud-native sliceable core to
enable new service providers and deployment models
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
6
This report is critical to anyone involved in planning to launch a 5G
network or any part of a 5G network who may specify how open that
network needs to be be that by adopting an open API or through in-
teroperability testing or adherence to one of the emerging candidate
open RAN standards This may be for network providers technology
partners implementers equipment suppliers software providers and
investors at C Suite level down to product marketing and product
planning The RAN Research arm of Rethink Technology Research is
essential reading for anyone who wants to stay on top of current trends
and thinking among MNOs Itrsquos like being a fly on the wall in their
planning meetings and is based on questions MNOs have answered
about their planned and future expenditure
This report will
Give you numbers you can drop directly your planning
It will help you understand who is already supporting the Open Ran
standard you are adopting and the market pressures on those players
It will help you understand timescales for particular approaches
In particular we have developed a 4 scenario planning tool whereby
we take an assumption and show how this will play out and affect
timeframes for various Open Ran approaches
It will help you construct a Capex plan for Open Ran
Pricing Each module of RAN Research costs $2000 for a single individual li-
cense and $4000 for a corporate license for any individual report such
as this one This is the price for ldquoOpen RAN architecture set to disrupt
5G landscape - Operator Buying Patterns to 2025rsquo and for any previous
reports The entire service can also be purchased as a subscription
which comes with 6 reports each year Ask for pricing details
How Do I buy this report Please follow links to our store pages site to buy ldquoOpen RAN architec-
ture set to disrupt 5G landscapersquo Or email nataliarethinkresearchbiz
This report has been compiled by our Head of Research Caroline Ga-
briel who can also be emailed at carolinerethinkresearchbiz
Who should buy this report
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
7
This document contains explanatory notes and commentary to accompa-
ny the Excel spreadsheet lsquoRethink Research Open RAN Module 2018-
2025rsquo The surveys and forecasts on which the outputs are based were
conducted in January to March 2019
The wireless forecasts included in this report are based on research on
the top 40 international mobile operator groups which account for 80
of the global mobile subscribers (IMG-40)
These forecasts were based on a combination of data from
bull Detailed surveys interviews and operator-by-operator modeling of
the IMG-40 groups
bull Studies and modelling of the deployments and strategies of the top
100 4G5G operators as tracked by Rethink Technology Researchrsquos
quarterly surveys interviews and desk research
bull A survey of 76 tier one operators about their detailed plans for RAN
deployments to 2025 including new architectures
bull Input from ecosystem vendors on shipments technology strategies
and competitive landscape also updated quarterly
bull Surveys of alternative cellular operators including over 45 private
cellular neutral host enterprise and carrier WiFi providers
bull A calculation of the resources required in each type of location to
achieve the MNOsrsquo stated objectives
bull A detailed proprietary model to project best and worst cases and
different scenarios according to all these inputs and a detailed list of
assumptions and variables in turn drawn from a research base com-
piled over 15 years and supported by over a decade of historic data
From the starting point of a calculation of the number of cell sites already
deployed worldwide forecasts were made of the numbers of base sta-
tions and edge nodes that would be rolled out a) to brand new sites and
b) to replace or upgrade existing sites These deployment forecasts were
then categorized by network topology spectrum band spectrum mode
region and other factors The equipment deployed in each case was also
surveyed and modeled
Appendix Methodology
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
8
Based on the surveys of operators and vendors it was then calculated
how the cell and edge sites would be equipped ndash by base station type
edge node type and location technology frequency band etc leading to
a detailed unit and market size measurement
Most of the forecasts refer specifically to nodes deployed within MNO
networks either by themselves or by partners MNOs may also make use
of third party nodes deployed outside their network and connected by
wireline or WiFi and many edge cloud services will run on infrastructure
that is not used by MNOs at all
The Rethink RAN Research process summarized
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
9
Rethink Technology Research is a specialized research and consulting firm
with 12 yearsrsquo experience in surveying wireless broadband over-the-top
and quad play operators This has resulted in a broad research base of over
140 service providers (MNOs telcos cable and satellite operators over-the-
top providers) worldwide These organizations are surveyed on a regular
basis about their network infrastructure and business plans and have a re-
lationship of trust with Rethink
Rethink also has deep relationships with the telecoms ecosystem (tier one
device OEMs vendors technology developers integrators regulators etc)
and is perceived as a thought leader in many areas of the telecoms and me-
dia sectors Key areas of expertise and research experience include HetNet
migration small cells and carrier WiFi transformation strategies for the
RAN and the BSSOSS convergence of IT and network skills and platforms
device and chipset roadmaps spectrum strategy
Here are some sample titles of reports we have produced recently
bull Will 5G really be so different after all 5G Deployment Trends 2018-2025
bull MNOs look to MEC to deliver 5G class apps Edge Computing Forecast
2018 to 2025
bull Virtualized RAN rollouts stutter ndash awaiting vendor interoperability
standards
Single User license - $2000 (One Report)
Single User subscription (This report plus 5 more) $6000
Corporate licensemdash$4000 (unlimited distribution inside your organization)
Corporate Subscription (This report plus 5 more) $10000
RAN Research Forecasting disruption in wireless
SUBSCRIPTION COSTS
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
10
RETHINK LEADERSHIP
RAN RESEARCH MAIN CO NTRIBUTORS
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
Peter White - Co-founder and CEO
peterrethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director and Co-founder
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
11
Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play and emerging wireless and
IoT technologies It offers consulting advisory services research papers
plus three weekly research services Wireless Watch a major influence
among wireless operators and equipment makers Faultline which tracks
disruption in the video ecosystem and OTT video Riot on enterprise dis-
ruption from the combination of AIIoT and cloud
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information
Natalia Szczepanek (Client Relations and Marketing Manager)
nataliarethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
12
Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel +44 (0) 1179 257019
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Published August 2018
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
3
TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1 Figure 1 Top drivers to adopt open architectures in the RAN ndash percentage of operators placing
each driver in their top three 8
Figure 2 The role of X2 in 4G5G interworking 10
Figure 3 The evolution of SK Telecomrsquos 4G and 5G RAN Source Netmanias 13
Figure 4 Fronthaul options related to different 3GPPIEEE functional splits in a disaggregated RAN 14
Figure 5 Projected deployment cost of a 5G macro cell open vs traditional architecture 16
Figure 6 Primary areas of impact of open architectures on the macro network - percentage of operators
placing each factor in their top two 17
Figure 7 Primary areas of impact of open architectures on the small cell network - percentage of operators
placing each factor in their top two 18
Figure 8 Selected challengers which are active in the open RAN and their key relationships with top
MNOs 21
Figure 9 Conceptual architecture of xRAN (now ORAN) Source xRAN white paper 2016 22
Figure 10 The TIP OpenRAN group 27
Figure 11 Percentage of operators active or interested in each major open mobile network group 31
Figure 12 Top barriers to adopt open architectures in the RAN ndash percentage of operators placing each bar-
rier in their top three 40
Figure 13 Total deployments and upgrades of macro and micro base stations by region 2018 to 2025 all
architectures 44
Figure 14 Total installed base of small cells by region 2018 to 2025 all architectures 45
Figure 15 In Scenario 1 deployments of open macro and micro base stations by region 2020 to 2025 46
Figure 16 In Scenario 2 deployments of open macro and micro base stations 2020-2025 47
Figure 17 In Scenario 2 installed base of open small cells 2020-2025 48
Figure 18 Deployment of open small cells by operator type 2020-2025 49
Figure 19 Deployment of open small cells indoor vs outdoor 2020-2025 50
Figure 20 In Scenario 3 total installed base of small cells all architectures 2018-2025 55
Figure 21 In Scenario 4 fronthaul and midhaul links deployed by architecture 2019-2025 53
This document contains explanatory notes and commentary to accompany the Ex-
cel spreadsheet lsquoRethink Research Open RAN Module 2018-2025rsquo The surveys and
forecasts on which the outputs are based were conducted in January to March 2019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
4
There are many ways in which operators expect 5G to be very different from
its predecessors Only some of these relate to the performance of the radio
technology itself ndash the higher data rates lower latency enhanced availability
and so on Others which could prove just as important to the economics of
deploying the new networks relate to the wider architecture the supply
chain and the deployment models
Operators hope that 5G will support an open multivendor network with an
enlarged supply chain and greater price competition and open innovation
This may always have been a goal but it has not been easily achievable be-
fore
Indeed in the 4G era the supply chain has contracted considerably because
of the consolidation of suppliers In 2019 there are five major providers of
macro base stations and for operators in countries which are restricting pro-
curement from Chinese OEMs notably the USA and Australia there are on-
ly three choices This greatly reduces price competition and encourages lock-
in
Although most MNOs have a dual-source policy for their macro RANs this
means little more than splitting the network into geographical zones with
one supplier for each and minimal need to interwork
But the industry is changing and MNOs are under unprecedented commer-
cial pressure as they move towards 5G The disconnect between rising data
usage and flatlining ARPUs is making it very difficult for most operators to
justify a significant investment in another generation of networks It is essen-
tial to their business case that costs are reduced significantly at the same
time that the new networks enable new revenue streams
Most operators report that they are finding it hard to make a firm commer-
cial case for new revenues generated by 5G ndash particularly those that harness
its low latency high availability qualities to support industrial and Internet
of Things (IoT) services Over time as the technology is enhanced and the
most promising use cases identified this perception of high risk in the reve-
nue model will change but for the first few years of a 5G deployment it is
Introduction
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
5
essential that operators can be confident of at least one improvement in
the model ndash the total cost of ownership (TCO)
One way to drive down cost will be to move towards a more open
multivendor ecosystem with high levels of vendor competition and
lower barriers to new suppliers In Rethinkrsquos analysis there are many
factors which are encouraging operators to push for a more open eco-
system But other drivers relate to a trend that is more threatening to
the established MNOs - the potential for 5G especially when it is de-
ployed in shared spectrum and with a cloud-native sliceable core to
enable new service providers and deployment models
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
6
This report is critical to anyone involved in planning to launch a 5G
network or any part of a 5G network who may specify how open that
network needs to be be that by adopting an open API or through in-
teroperability testing or adherence to one of the emerging candidate
open RAN standards This may be for network providers technology
partners implementers equipment suppliers software providers and
investors at C Suite level down to product marketing and product
planning The RAN Research arm of Rethink Technology Research is
essential reading for anyone who wants to stay on top of current trends
and thinking among MNOs Itrsquos like being a fly on the wall in their
planning meetings and is based on questions MNOs have answered
about their planned and future expenditure
This report will
Give you numbers you can drop directly your planning
It will help you understand who is already supporting the Open Ran
standard you are adopting and the market pressures on those players
It will help you understand timescales for particular approaches
In particular we have developed a 4 scenario planning tool whereby
we take an assumption and show how this will play out and affect
timeframes for various Open Ran approaches
It will help you construct a Capex plan for Open Ran
Pricing Each module of RAN Research costs $2000 for a single individual li-
cense and $4000 for a corporate license for any individual report such
as this one This is the price for ldquoOpen RAN architecture set to disrupt
5G landscape - Operator Buying Patterns to 2025rsquo and for any previous
reports The entire service can also be purchased as a subscription
which comes with 6 reports each year Ask for pricing details
How Do I buy this report Please follow links to our store pages site to buy ldquoOpen RAN architec-
ture set to disrupt 5G landscapersquo Or email nataliarethinkresearchbiz
This report has been compiled by our Head of Research Caroline Ga-
briel who can also be emailed at carolinerethinkresearchbiz
Who should buy this report
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
7
This document contains explanatory notes and commentary to accompa-
ny the Excel spreadsheet lsquoRethink Research Open RAN Module 2018-
2025rsquo The surveys and forecasts on which the outputs are based were
conducted in January to March 2019
The wireless forecasts included in this report are based on research on
the top 40 international mobile operator groups which account for 80
of the global mobile subscribers (IMG-40)
These forecasts were based on a combination of data from
bull Detailed surveys interviews and operator-by-operator modeling of
the IMG-40 groups
bull Studies and modelling of the deployments and strategies of the top
100 4G5G operators as tracked by Rethink Technology Researchrsquos
quarterly surveys interviews and desk research
bull A survey of 76 tier one operators about their detailed plans for RAN
deployments to 2025 including new architectures
bull Input from ecosystem vendors on shipments technology strategies
and competitive landscape also updated quarterly
bull Surveys of alternative cellular operators including over 45 private
cellular neutral host enterprise and carrier WiFi providers
bull A calculation of the resources required in each type of location to
achieve the MNOsrsquo stated objectives
bull A detailed proprietary model to project best and worst cases and
different scenarios according to all these inputs and a detailed list of
assumptions and variables in turn drawn from a research base com-
piled over 15 years and supported by over a decade of historic data
From the starting point of a calculation of the number of cell sites already
deployed worldwide forecasts were made of the numbers of base sta-
tions and edge nodes that would be rolled out a) to brand new sites and
b) to replace or upgrade existing sites These deployment forecasts were
then categorized by network topology spectrum band spectrum mode
region and other factors The equipment deployed in each case was also
surveyed and modeled
Appendix Methodology
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
8
Based on the surveys of operators and vendors it was then calculated
how the cell and edge sites would be equipped ndash by base station type
edge node type and location technology frequency band etc leading to
a detailed unit and market size measurement
Most of the forecasts refer specifically to nodes deployed within MNO
networks either by themselves or by partners MNOs may also make use
of third party nodes deployed outside their network and connected by
wireline or WiFi and many edge cloud services will run on infrastructure
that is not used by MNOs at all
The Rethink RAN Research process summarized
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
9
Rethink Technology Research is a specialized research and consulting firm
with 12 yearsrsquo experience in surveying wireless broadband over-the-top
and quad play operators This has resulted in a broad research base of over
140 service providers (MNOs telcos cable and satellite operators over-the-
top providers) worldwide These organizations are surveyed on a regular
basis about their network infrastructure and business plans and have a re-
lationship of trust with Rethink
Rethink also has deep relationships with the telecoms ecosystem (tier one
device OEMs vendors technology developers integrators regulators etc)
and is perceived as a thought leader in many areas of the telecoms and me-
dia sectors Key areas of expertise and research experience include HetNet
migration small cells and carrier WiFi transformation strategies for the
RAN and the BSSOSS convergence of IT and network skills and platforms
device and chipset roadmaps spectrum strategy
Here are some sample titles of reports we have produced recently
bull Will 5G really be so different after all 5G Deployment Trends 2018-2025
bull MNOs look to MEC to deliver 5G class apps Edge Computing Forecast
2018 to 2025
bull Virtualized RAN rollouts stutter ndash awaiting vendor interoperability
standards
Single User license - $2000 (One Report)
Single User subscription (This report plus 5 more) $6000
Corporate licensemdash$4000 (unlimited distribution inside your organization)
Corporate Subscription (This report plus 5 more) $10000
RAN Research Forecasting disruption in wireless
SUBSCRIPTION COSTS
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
10
RETHINK LEADERSHIP
RAN RESEARCH MAIN CO NTRIBUTORS
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
Peter White - Co-founder and CEO
peterrethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director and Co-founder
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
11
Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play and emerging wireless and
IoT technologies It offers consulting advisory services research papers
plus three weekly research services Wireless Watch a major influence
among wireless operators and equipment makers Faultline which tracks
disruption in the video ecosystem and OTT video Riot on enterprise dis-
ruption from the combination of AIIoT and cloud
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information
Natalia Szczepanek (Client Relations and Marketing Manager)
nataliarethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
12
Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel +44 (0) 1179 257019
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Published August 2018
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
4
There are many ways in which operators expect 5G to be very different from
its predecessors Only some of these relate to the performance of the radio
technology itself ndash the higher data rates lower latency enhanced availability
and so on Others which could prove just as important to the economics of
deploying the new networks relate to the wider architecture the supply
chain and the deployment models
Operators hope that 5G will support an open multivendor network with an
enlarged supply chain and greater price competition and open innovation
This may always have been a goal but it has not been easily achievable be-
fore
Indeed in the 4G era the supply chain has contracted considerably because
of the consolidation of suppliers In 2019 there are five major providers of
macro base stations and for operators in countries which are restricting pro-
curement from Chinese OEMs notably the USA and Australia there are on-
ly three choices This greatly reduces price competition and encourages lock-
in
Although most MNOs have a dual-source policy for their macro RANs this
means little more than splitting the network into geographical zones with
one supplier for each and minimal need to interwork
But the industry is changing and MNOs are under unprecedented commer-
cial pressure as they move towards 5G The disconnect between rising data
usage and flatlining ARPUs is making it very difficult for most operators to
justify a significant investment in another generation of networks It is essen-
tial to their business case that costs are reduced significantly at the same
time that the new networks enable new revenue streams
Most operators report that they are finding it hard to make a firm commer-
cial case for new revenues generated by 5G ndash particularly those that harness
its low latency high availability qualities to support industrial and Internet
of Things (IoT) services Over time as the technology is enhanced and the
most promising use cases identified this perception of high risk in the reve-
nue model will change but for the first few years of a 5G deployment it is
Introduction
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
5
essential that operators can be confident of at least one improvement in
the model ndash the total cost of ownership (TCO)
One way to drive down cost will be to move towards a more open
multivendor ecosystem with high levels of vendor competition and
lower barriers to new suppliers In Rethinkrsquos analysis there are many
factors which are encouraging operators to push for a more open eco-
system But other drivers relate to a trend that is more threatening to
the established MNOs - the potential for 5G especially when it is de-
ployed in shared spectrum and with a cloud-native sliceable core to
enable new service providers and deployment models
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
6
This report is critical to anyone involved in planning to launch a 5G
network or any part of a 5G network who may specify how open that
network needs to be be that by adopting an open API or through in-
teroperability testing or adherence to one of the emerging candidate
open RAN standards This may be for network providers technology
partners implementers equipment suppliers software providers and
investors at C Suite level down to product marketing and product
planning The RAN Research arm of Rethink Technology Research is
essential reading for anyone who wants to stay on top of current trends
and thinking among MNOs Itrsquos like being a fly on the wall in their
planning meetings and is based on questions MNOs have answered
about their planned and future expenditure
This report will
Give you numbers you can drop directly your planning
It will help you understand who is already supporting the Open Ran
standard you are adopting and the market pressures on those players
It will help you understand timescales for particular approaches
In particular we have developed a 4 scenario planning tool whereby
we take an assumption and show how this will play out and affect
timeframes for various Open Ran approaches
It will help you construct a Capex plan for Open Ran
Pricing Each module of RAN Research costs $2000 for a single individual li-
cense and $4000 for a corporate license for any individual report such
as this one This is the price for ldquoOpen RAN architecture set to disrupt
5G landscape - Operator Buying Patterns to 2025rsquo and for any previous
reports The entire service can also be purchased as a subscription
which comes with 6 reports each year Ask for pricing details
How Do I buy this report Please follow links to our store pages site to buy ldquoOpen RAN architec-
ture set to disrupt 5G landscapersquo Or email nataliarethinkresearchbiz
This report has been compiled by our Head of Research Caroline Ga-
briel who can also be emailed at carolinerethinkresearchbiz
Who should buy this report
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
7
This document contains explanatory notes and commentary to accompa-
ny the Excel spreadsheet lsquoRethink Research Open RAN Module 2018-
2025rsquo The surveys and forecasts on which the outputs are based were
conducted in January to March 2019
The wireless forecasts included in this report are based on research on
the top 40 international mobile operator groups which account for 80
of the global mobile subscribers (IMG-40)
These forecasts were based on a combination of data from
bull Detailed surveys interviews and operator-by-operator modeling of
the IMG-40 groups
bull Studies and modelling of the deployments and strategies of the top
100 4G5G operators as tracked by Rethink Technology Researchrsquos
quarterly surveys interviews and desk research
bull A survey of 76 tier one operators about their detailed plans for RAN
deployments to 2025 including new architectures
bull Input from ecosystem vendors on shipments technology strategies
and competitive landscape also updated quarterly
bull Surveys of alternative cellular operators including over 45 private
cellular neutral host enterprise and carrier WiFi providers
bull A calculation of the resources required in each type of location to
achieve the MNOsrsquo stated objectives
bull A detailed proprietary model to project best and worst cases and
different scenarios according to all these inputs and a detailed list of
assumptions and variables in turn drawn from a research base com-
piled over 15 years and supported by over a decade of historic data
From the starting point of a calculation of the number of cell sites already
deployed worldwide forecasts were made of the numbers of base sta-
tions and edge nodes that would be rolled out a) to brand new sites and
b) to replace or upgrade existing sites These deployment forecasts were
then categorized by network topology spectrum band spectrum mode
region and other factors The equipment deployed in each case was also
surveyed and modeled
Appendix Methodology
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
8
Based on the surveys of operators and vendors it was then calculated
how the cell and edge sites would be equipped ndash by base station type
edge node type and location technology frequency band etc leading to
a detailed unit and market size measurement
Most of the forecasts refer specifically to nodes deployed within MNO
networks either by themselves or by partners MNOs may also make use
of third party nodes deployed outside their network and connected by
wireline or WiFi and many edge cloud services will run on infrastructure
that is not used by MNOs at all
The Rethink RAN Research process summarized
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
9
Rethink Technology Research is a specialized research and consulting firm
with 12 yearsrsquo experience in surveying wireless broadband over-the-top
and quad play operators This has resulted in a broad research base of over
140 service providers (MNOs telcos cable and satellite operators over-the-
top providers) worldwide These organizations are surveyed on a regular
basis about their network infrastructure and business plans and have a re-
lationship of trust with Rethink
Rethink also has deep relationships with the telecoms ecosystem (tier one
device OEMs vendors technology developers integrators regulators etc)
and is perceived as a thought leader in many areas of the telecoms and me-
dia sectors Key areas of expertise and research experience include HetNet
migration small cells and carrier WiFi transformation strategies for the
RAN and the BSSOSS convergence of IT and network skills and platforms
device and chipset roadmaps spectrum strategy
Here are some sample titles of reports we have produced recently
bull Will 5G really be so different after all 5G Deployment Trends 2018-2025
bull MNOs look to MEC to deliver 5G class apps Edge Computing Forecast
2018 to 2025
bull Virtualized RAN rollouts stutter ndash awaiting vendor interoperability
standards
Single User license - $2000 (One Report)
Single User subscription (This report plus 5 more) $6000
Corporate licensemdash$4000 (unlimited distribution inside your organization)
Corporate Subscription (This report plus 5 more) $10000
RAN Research Forecasting disruption in wireless
SUBSCRIPTION COSTS
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
10
RETHINK LEADERSHIP
RAN RESEARCH MAIN CO NTRIBUTORS
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
Peter White - Co-founder and CEO
peterrethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director and Co-founder
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
11
Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play and emerging wireless and
IoT technologies It offers consulting advisory services research papers
plus three weekly research services Wireless Watch a major influence
among wireless operators and equipment makers Faultline which tracks
disruption in the video ecosystem and OTT video Riot on enterprise dis-
ruption from the combination of AIIoT and cloud
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information
Natalia Szczepanek (Client Relations and Marketing Manager)
nataliarethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
12
Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel +44 (0) 1179 257019
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Published August 2018
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
5
essential that operators can be confident of at least one improvement in
the model ndash the total cost of ownership (TCO)
One way to drive down cost will be to move towards a more open
multivendor ecosystem with high levels of vendor competition and
lower barriers to new suppliers In Rethinkrsquos analysis there are many
factors which are encouraging operators to push for a more open eco-
system But other drivers relate to a trend that is more threatening to
the established MNOs - the potential for 5G especially when it is de-
ployed in shared spectrum and with a cloud-native sliceable core to
enable new service providers and deployment models
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
6
This report is critical to anyone involved in planning to launch a 5G
network or any part of a 5G network who may specify how open that
network needs to be be that by adopting an open API or through in-
teroperability testing or adherence to one of the emerging candidate
open RAN standards This may be for network providers technology
partners implementers equipment suppliers software providers and
investors at C Suite level down to product marketing and product
planning The RAN Research arm of Rethink Technology Research is
essential reading for anyone who wants to stay on top of current trends
and thinking among MNOs Itrsquos like being a fly on the wall in their
planning meetings and is based on questions MNOs have answered
about their planned and future expenditure
This report will
Give you numbers you can drop directly your planning
It will help you understand who is already supporting the Open Ran
standard you are adopting and the market pressures on those players
It will help you understand timescales for particular approaches
In particular we have developed a 4 scenario planning tool whereby
we take an assumption and show how this will play out and affect
timeframes for various Open Ran approaches
It will help you construct a Capex plan for Open Ran
Pricing Each module of RAN Research costs $2000 for a single individual li-
cense and $4000 for a corporate license for any individual report such
as this one This is the price for ldquoOpen RAN architecture set to disrupt
5G landscape - Operator Buying Patterns to 2025rsquo and for any previous
reports The entire service can also be purchased as a subscription
which comes with 6 reports each year Ask for pricing details
How Do I buy this report Please follow links to our store pages site to buy ldquoOpen RAN architec-
ture set to disrupt 5G landscapersquo Or email nataliarethinkresearchbiz
This report has been compiled by our Head of Research Caroline Ga-
briel who can also be emailed at carolinerethinkresearchbiz
Who should buy this report
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
7
This document contains explanatory notes and commentary to accompa-
ny the Excel spreadsheet lsquoRethink Research Open RAN Module 2018-
2025rsquo The surveys and forecasts on which the outputs are based were
conducted in January to March 2019
The wireless forecasts included in this report are based on research on
the top 40 international mobile operator groups which account for 80
of the global mobile subscribers (IMG-40)
These forecasts were based on a combination of data from
bull Detailed surveys interviews and operator-by-operator modeling of
the IMG-40 groups
bull Studies and modelling of the deployments and strategies of the top
100 4G5G operators as tracked by Rethink Technology Researchrsquos
quarterly surveys interviews and desk research
bull A survey of 76 tier one operators about their detailed plans for RAN
deployments to 2025 including new architectures
bull Input from ecosystem vendors on shipments technology strategies
and competitive landscape also updated quarterly
bull Surveys of alternative cellular operators including over 45 private
cellular neutral host enterprise and carrier WiFi providers
bull A calculation of the resources required in each type of location to
achieve the MNOsrsquo stated objectives
bull A detailed proprietary model to project best and worst cases and
different scenarios according to all these inputs and a detailed list of
assumptions and variables in turn drawn from a research base com-
piled over 15 years and supported by over a decade of historic data
From the starting point of a calculation of the number of cell sites already
deployed worldwide forecasts were made of the numbers of base sta-
tions and edge nodes that would be rolled out a) to brand new sites and
b) to replace or upgrade existing sites These deployment forecasts were
then categorized by network topology spectrum band spectrum mode
region and other factors The equipment deployed in each case was also
surveyed and modeled
Appendix Methodology
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
8
Based on the surveys of operators and vendors it was then calculated
how the cell and edge sites would be equipped ndash by base station type
edge node type and location technology frequency band etc leading to
a detailed unit and market size measurement
Most of the forecasts refer specifically to nodes deployed within MNO
networks either by themselves or by partners MNOs may also make use
of third party nodes deployed outside their network and connected by
wireline or WiFi and many edge cloud services will run on infrastructure
that is not used by MNOs at all
The Rethink RAN Research process summarized
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
9
Rethink Technology Research is a specialized research and consulting firm
with 12 yearsrsquo experience in surveying wireless broadband over-the-top
and quad play operators This has resulted in a broad research base of over
140 service providers (MNOs telcos cable and satellite operators over-the-
top providers) worldwide These organizations are surveyed on a regular
basis about their network infrastructure and business plans and have a re-
lationship of trust with Rethink
Rethink also has deep relationships with the telecoms ecosystem (tier one
device OEMs vendors technology developers integrators regulators etc)
and is perceived as a thought leader in many areas of the telecoms and me-
dia sectors Key areas of expertise and research experience include HetNet
migration small cells and carrier WiFi transformation strategies for the
RAN and the BSSOSS convergence of IT and network skills and platforms
device and chipset roadmaps spectrum strategy
Here are some sample titles of reports we have produced recently
bull Will 5G really be so different after all 5G Deployment Trends 2018-2025
bull MNOs look to MEC to deliver 5G class apps Edge Computing Forecast
2018 to 2025
bull Virtualized RAN rollouts stutter ndash awaiting vendor interoperability
standards
Single User license - $2000 (One Report)
Single User subscription (This report plus 5 more) $6000
Corporate licensemdash$4000 (unlimited distribution inside your organization)
Corporate Subscription (This report plus 5 more) $10000
RAN Research Forecasting disruption in wireless
SUBSCRIPTION COSTS
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
10
RETHINK LEADERSHIP
RAN RESEARCH MAIN CO NTRIBUTORS
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
Peter White - Co-founder and CEO
peterrethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director and Co-founder
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
11
Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play and emerging wireless and
IoT technologies It offers consulting advisory services research papers
plus three weekly research services Wireless Watch a major influence
among wireless operators and equipment makers Faultline which tracks
disruption in the video ecosystem and OTT video Riot on enterprise dis-
ruption from the combination of AIIoT and cloud
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information
Natalia Szczepanek (Client Relations and Marketing Manager)
nataliarethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
12
Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel +44 (0) 1179 257019
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Published August 2018
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
6
This report is critical to anyone involved in planning to launch a 5G
network or any part of a 5G network who may specify how open that
network needs to be be that by adopting an open API or through in-
teroperability testing or adherence to one of the emerging candidate
open RAN standards This may be for network providers technology
partners implementers equipment suppliers software providers and
investors at C Suite level down to product marketing and product
planning The RAN Research arm of Rethink Technology Research is
essential reading for anyone who wants to stay on top of current trends
and thinking among MNOs Itrsquos like being a fly on the wall in their
planning meetings and is based on questions MNOs have answered
about their planned and future expenditure
This report will
Give you numbers you can drop directly your planning
It will help you understand who is already supporting the Open Ran
standard you are adopting and the market pressures on those players
It will help you understand timescales for particular approaches
In particular we have developed a 4 scenario planning tool whereby
we take an assumption and show how this will play out and affect
timeframes for various Open Ran approaches
It will help you construct a Capex plan for Open Ran
Pricing Each module of RAN Research costs $2000 for a single individual li-
cense and $4000 for a corporate license for any individual report such
as this one This is the price for ldquoOpen RAN architecture set to disrupt
5G landscape - Operator Buying Patterns to 2025rsquo and for any previous
reports The entire service can also be purchased as a subscription
which comes with 6 reports each year Ask for pricing details
How Do I buy this report Please follow links to our store pages site to buy ldquoOpen RAN architec-
ture set to disrupt 5G landscapersquo Or email nataliarethinkresearchbiz
This report has been compiled by our Head of Research Caroline Ga-
briel who can also be emailed at carolinerethinkresearchbiz
Who should buy this report
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
7
This document contains explanatory notes and commentary to accompa-
ny the Excel spreadsheet lsquoRethink Research Open RAN Module 2018-
2025rsquo The surveys and forecasts on which the outputs are based were
conducted in January to March 2019
The wireless forecasts included in this report are based on research on
the top 40 international mobile operator groups which account for 80
of the global mobile subscribers (IMG-40)
These forecasts were based on a combination of data from
bull Detailed surveys interviews and operator-by-operator modeling of
the IMG-40 groups
bull Studies and modelling of the deployments and strategies of the top
100 4G5G operators as tracked by Rethink Technology Researchrsquos
quarterly surveys interviews and desk research
bull A survey of 76 tier one operators about their detailed plans for RAN
deployments to 2025 including new architectures
bull Input from ecosystem vendors on shipments technology strategies
and competitive landscape also updated quarterly
bull Surveys of alternative cellular operators including over 45 private
cellular neutral host enterprise and carrier WiFi providers
bull A calculation of the resources required in each type of location to
achieve the MNOsrsquo stated objectives
bull A detailed proprietary model to project best and worst cases and
different scenarios according to all these inputs and a detailed list of
assumptions and variables in turn drawn from a research base com-
piled over 15 years and supported by over a decade of historic data
From the starting point of a calculation of the number of cell sites already
deployed worldwide forecasts were made of the numbers of base sta-
tions and edge nodes that would be rolled out a) to brand new sites and
b) to replace or upgrade existing sites These deployment forecasts were
then categorized by network topology spectrum band spectrum mode
region and other factors The equipment deployed in each case was also
surveyed and modeled
Appendix Methodology
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
8
Based on the surveys of operators and vendors it was then calculated
how the cell and edge sites would be equipped ndash by base station type
edge node type and location technology frequency band etc leading to
a detailed unit and market size measurement
Most of the forecasts refer specifically to nodes deployed within MNO
networks either by themselves or by partners MNOs may also make use
of third party nodes deployed outside their network and connected by
wireline or WiFi and many edge cloud services will run on infrastructure
that is not used by MNOs at all
The Rethink RAN Research process summarized
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
9
Rethink Technology Research is a specialized research and consulting firm
with 12 yearsrsquo experience in surveying wireless broadband over-the-top
and quad play operators This has resulted in a broad research base of over
140 service providers (MNOs telcos cable and satellite operators over-the-
top providers) worldwide These organizations are surveyed on a regular
basis about their network infrastructure and business plans and have a re-
lationship of trust with Rethink
Rethink also has deep relationships with the telecoms ecosystem (tier one
device OEMs vendors technology developers integrators regulators etc)
and is perceived as a thought leader in many areas of the telecoms and me-
dia sectors Key areas of expertise and research experience include HetNet
migration small cells and carrier WiFi transformation strategies for the
RAN and the BSSOSS convergence of IT and network skills and platforms
device and chipset roadmaps spectrum strategy
Here are some sample titles of reports we have produced recently
bull Will 5G really be so different after all 5G Deployment Trends 2018-2025
bull MNOs look to MEC to deliver 5G class apps Edge Computing Forecast
2018 to 2025
bull Virtualized RAN rollouts stutter ndash awaiting vendor interoperability
standards
Single User license - $2000 (One Report)
Single User subscription (This report plus 5 more) $6000
Corporate licensemdash$4000 (unlimited distribution inside your organization)
Corporate Subscription (This report plus 5 more) $10000
RAN Research Forecasting disruption in wireless
SUBSCRIPTION COSTS
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
10
RETHINK LEADERSHIP
RAN RESEARCH MAIN CO NTRIBUTORS
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
Peter White - Co-founder and CEO
peterrethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director and Co-founder
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
11
Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play and emerging wireless and
IoT technologies It offers consulting advisory services research papers
plus three weekly research services Wireless Watch a major influence
among wireless operators and equipment makers Faultline which tracks
disruption in the video ecosystem and OTT video Riot on enterprise dis-
ruption from the combination of AIIoT and cloud
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information
Natalia Szczepanek (Client Relations and Marketing Manager)
nataliarethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
12
Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel +44 (0) 1179 257019
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Published August 2018
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
7
This document contains explanatory notes and commentary to accompa-
ny the Excel spreadsheet lsquoRethink Research Open RAN Module 2018-
2025rsquo The surveys and forecasts on which the outputs are based were
conducted in January to March 2019
The wireless forecasts included in this report are based on research on
the top 40 international mobile operator groups which account for 80
of the global mobile subscribers (IMG-40)
These forecasts were based on a combination of data from
bull Detailed surveys interviews and operator-by-operator modeling of
the IMG-40 groups
bull Studies and modelling of the deployments and strategies of the top
100 4G5G operators as tracked by Rethink Technology Researchrsquos
quarterly surveys interviews and desk research
bull A survey of 76 tier one operators about their detailed plans for RAN
deployments to 2025 including new architectures
bull Input from ecosystem vendors on shipments technology strategies
and competitive landscape also updated quarterly
bull Surveys of alternative cellular operators including over 45 private
cellular neutral host enterprise and carrier WiFi providers
bull A calculation of the resources required in each type of location to
achieve the MNOsrsquo stated objectives
bull A detailed proprietary model to project best and worst cases and
different scenarios according to all these inputs and a detailed list of
assumptions and variables in turn drawn from a research base com-
piled over 15 years and supported by over a decade of historic data
From the starting point of a calculation of the number of cell sites already
deployed worldwide forecasts were made of the numbers of base sta-
tions and edge nodes that would be rolled out a) to brand new sites and
b) to replace or upgrade existing sites These deployment forecasts were
then categorized by network topology spectrum band spectrum mode
region and other factors The equipment deployed in each case was also
surveyed and modeled
Appendix Methodology
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
8
Based on the surveys of operators and vendors it was then calculated
how the cell and edge sites would be equipped ndash by base station type
edge node type and location technology frequency band etc leading to
a detailed unit and market size measurement
Most of the forecasts refer specifically to nodes deployed within MNO
networks either by themselves or by partners MNOs may also make use
of third party nodes deployed outside their network and connected by
wireline or WiFi and many edge cloud services will run on infrastructure
that is not used by MNOs at all
The Rethink RAN Research process summarized
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
9
Rethink Technology Research is a specialized research and consulting firm
with 12 yearsrsquo experience in surveying wireless broadband over-the-top
and quad play operators This has resulted in a broad research base of over
140 service providers (MNOs telcos cable and satellite operators over-the-
top providers) worldwide These organizations are surveyed on a regular
basis about their network infrastructure and business plans and have a re-
lationship of trust with Rethink
Rethink also has deep relationships with the telecoms ecosystem (tier one
device OEMs vendors technology developers integrators regulators etc)
and is perceived as a thought leader in many areas of the telecoms and me-
dia sectors Key areas of expertise and research experience include HetNet
migration small cells and carrier WiFi transformation strategies for the
RAN and the BSSOSS convergence of IT and network skills and platforms
device and chipset roadmaps spectrum strategy
Here are some sample titles of reports we have produced recently
bull Will 5G really be so different after all 5G Deployment Trends 2018-2025
bull MNOs look to MEC to deliver 5G class apps Edge Computing Forecast
2018 to 2025
bull Virtualized RAN rollouts stutter ndash awaiting vendor interoperability
standards
Single User license - $2000 (One Report)
Single User subscription (This report plus 5 more) $6000
Corporate licensemdash$4000 (unlimited distribution inside your organization)
Corporate Subscription (This report plus 5 more) $10000
RAN Research Forecasting disruption in wireless
SUBSCRIPTION COSTS
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
10
RETHINK LEADERSHIP
RAN RESEARCH MAIN CO NTRIBUTORS
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
Peter White - Co-founder and CEO
peterrethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director and Co-founder
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
11
Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play and emerging wireless and
IoT technologies It offers consulting advisory services research papers
plus three weekly research services Wireless Watch a major influence
among wireless operators and equipment makers Faultline which tracks
disruption in the video ecosystem and OTT video Riot on enterprise dis-
ruption from the combination of AIIoT and cloud
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information
Natalia Szczepanek (Client Relations and Marketing Manager)
nataliarethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
12
Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel +44 (0) 1179 257019
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Published August 2018
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
8
Based on the surveys of operators and vendors it was then calculated
how the cell and edge sites would be equipped ndash by base station type
edge node type and location technology frequency band etc leading to
a detailed unit and market size measurement
Most of the forecasts refer specifically to nodes deployed within MNO
networks either by themselves or by partners MNOs may also make use
of third party nodes deployed outside their network and connected by
wireline or WiFi and many edge cloud services will run on infrastructure
that is not used by MNOs at all
The Rethink RAN Research process summarized
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
9
Rethink Technology Research is a specialized research and consulting firm
with 12 yearsrsquo experience in surveying wireless broadband over-the-top
and quad play operators This has resulted in a broad research base of over
140 service providers (MNOs telcos cable and satellite operators over-the-
top providers) worldwide These organizations are surveyed on a regular
basis about their network infrastructure and business plans and have a re-
lationship of trust with Rethink
Rethink also has deep relationships with the telecoms ecosystem (tier one
device OEMs vendors technology developers integrators regulators etc)
and is perceived as a thought leader in many areas of the telecoms and me-
dia sectors Key areas of expertise and research experience include HetNet
migration small cells and carrier WiFi transformation strategies for the
RAN and the BSSOSS convergence of IT and network skills and platforms
device and chipset roadmaps spectrum strategy
Here are some sample titles of reports we have produced recently
bull Will 5G really be so different after all 5G Deployment Trends 2018-2025
bull MNOs look to MEC to deliver 5G class apps Edge Computing Forecast
2018 to 2025
bull Virtualized RAN rollouts stutter ndash awaiting vendor interoperability
standards
Single User license - $2000 (One Report)
Single User subscription (This report plus 5 more) $6000
Corporate licensemdash$4000 (unlimited distribution inside your organization)
Corporate Subscription (This report plus 5 more) $10000
RAN Research Forecasting disruption in wireless
SUBSCRIPTION COSTS
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
10
RETHINK LEADERSHIP
RAN RESEARCH MAIN CO NTRIBUTORS
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
Peter White - Co-founder and CEO
peterrethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director and Co-founder
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
11
Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play and emerging wireless and
IoT technologies It offers consulting advisory services research papers
plus three weekly research services Wireless Watch a major influence
among wireless operators and equipment makers Faultline which tracks
disruption in the video ecosystem and OTT video Riot on enterprise dis-
ruption from the combination of AIIoT and cloud
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information
Natalia Szczepanek (Client Relations and Marketing Manager)
nataliarethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
12
Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel +44 (0) 1179 257019
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Published August 2018
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
9
Rethink Technology Research is a specialized research and consulting firm
with 12 yearsrsquo experience in surveying wireless broadband over-the-top
and quad play operators This has resulted in a broad research base of over
140 service providers (MNOs telcos cable and satellite operators over-the-
top providers) worldwide These organizations are surveyed on a regular
basis about their network infrastructure and business plans and have a re-
lationship of trust with Rethink
Rethink also has deep relationships with the telecoms ecosystem (tier one
device OEMs vendors technology developers integrators regulators etc)
and is perceived as a thought leader in many areas of the telecoms and me-
dia sectors Key areas of expertise and research experience include HetNet
migration small cells and carrier WiFi transformation strategies for the
RAN and the BSSOSS convergence of IT and network skills and platforms
device and chipset roadmaps spectrum strategy
Here are some sample titles of reports we have produced recently
bull Will 5G really be so different after all 5G Deployment Trends 2018-2025
bull MNOs look to MEC to deliver 5G class apps Edge Computing Forecast
2018 to 2025
bull Virtualized RAN rollouts stutter ndash awaiting vendor interoperability
standards
Single User license - $2000 (One Report)
Single User subscription (This report plus 5 more) $6000
Corporate licensemdash$4000 (unlimited distribution inside your organization)
Corporate Subscription (This report plus 5 more) $10000
RAN Research Forecasting disruption in wireless
SUBSCRIPTION COSTS
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
10
RETHINK LEADERSHIP
RAN RESEARCH MAIN CO NTRIBUTORS
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
Peter White - Co-founder and CEO
peterrethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director and Co-founder
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
11
Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play and emerging wireless and
IoT technologies It offers consulting advisory services research papers
plus three weekly research services Wireless Watch a major influence
among wireless operators and equipment makers Faultline which tracks
disruption in the video ecosystem and OTT video Riot on enterprise dis-
ruption from the combination of AIIoT and cloud
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information
Natalia Szczepanek (Client Relations and Marketing Manager)
nataliarethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
12
Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel +44 (0) 1179 257019
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Published August 2018
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
10
RETHINK LEADERSHIP
RAN RESEARCH MAIN CO NTRIBUTORS
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
Peter White - Co-founder and CEO
peterrethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director and Co-founder
carolinerethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
11
Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play and emerging wireless and
IoT technologies It offers consulting advisory services research papers
plus three weekly research services Wireless Watch a major influence
among wireless operators and equipment makers Faultline which tracks
disruption in the video ecosystem and OTT video Riot on enterprise dis-
ruption from the combination of AIIoT and cloud
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information
Natalia Szczepanek (Client Relations and Marketing Manager)
nataliarethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
12
Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel +44 (0) 1179 257019
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Published August 2018
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
11
Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play and emerging wireless and
IoT technologies It offers consulting advisory services research papers
plus three weekly research services Wireless Watch a major influence
among wireless operators and equipment makers Faultline which tracks
disruption in the video ecosystem and OTT video Riot on enterprise dis-
ruption from the combination of AIIoT and cloud
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information
Natalia Szczepanek (Client Relations and Marketing Manager)
nataliarethinkresearchbiz
+44 (0)117 925 7019
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
12
Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel +44 (0) 1179 257019
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Published August 2018
Copyright copy 2018 Rethink Research All rights reserved
12
Bristol amp Exeter House Lower Approach Road
Temple Meads Bristol
BS1 6QS United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel +44 (0) 1179 257019
wwwrethinkresearchbiz
Published August 2018
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