Operationalising suppressed demand Steve Thorne and other consortium members Sustainable Development...

Operationalising suppressed demand

Steve Thorne and other consortium members

Sustainable Development Methodologies workshop, UNFCCC

Bonn 24th and 25th March 2012

Contents

• Consortium (Gold Standard, NIRAS, Perspectives, SouthSouthNorth Africa)

• Typologies• Treatment• Case studies for methodologies• Some conclusions

Typologies• Suppressed demand is all about service levels

and estimating what is required to reach them.• 3 - types identified so far:1.No livelihoods increase minimum service levels;2.Livelihoods increasing introduction of RE tech

Sufficiency Service Level;3.Livelihoods increasing introduction of EE tech in

attaining Suffiency Service Level.• Others?

Treatments of typologies

• Establishing Service Levels;• Establishing baseline scenarios

(fuel/technology);• Establishing energy required in project and

baseline; • Emissions calculations may make use of ex-

post calculations/standards/predictions;• Simple monitoring.

Case study 1 Thermal performance in dwelling structures (SSNA)

• Project case study is thermal performance improvements of new and existing low income structures;

• Where the suppressed demand is in unmet demand for attaining heated thermal comfort

• This is typology 3;• Service level is attaining 21o C (as per lowest

level on bioclimatic chart) during non sleeping occupancy periods.

Case study 1: Thermal performance in dwelling structures

• The treatment is to calibrate a predictive tool to estimate the quantity of heat required to reach thermal comfort;

• Monitoring of each class of dwelling structure in each climatic zone to establish occupation and technologies are in place.

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Thermal Performance: Insulated ceiling installation - Public Works

Case Study 2: Rural electrification and energization (NIRAS)

• The methodology is focusing on rural electrification and energization based on field work in Malawi.

• The project is supported by Malawian DNA.• Suppressed demand is primarily an issue for rural

areas, i.e. people have limited access to lighting, electricity for cooling purposes and communication.

• Improving access to electricity results in improved livelihood.

Case Study 2: Rural electrification and energization (NIRAS)

• Typology 1 defines the pre-project situation.• The methodology will propose minimum service

level for different consumer groups ( households , dispensaries, schools etc.) and

types of end use.• The minimum service levels is based on an

evaluation of different type of services – over time this can improved further.

• Cap the carbon credits to minimum service level.

Case Study 2: Rural electrification and energization (NIRAS)

Photo :Chinansi Foundationand NIRAS,December 2011,Malawi

Dispensary, Malawi – Suppressed demand is expressed by use of kerosene lamp and lack of refrigerator to store medicine.

Case Study 3: Energy use in the processing of agricultural products (Perspectives)

• The Methodology is for the supply of energy for the mechanical transformation of products (milling, extraction, separation, etc.) based on field work in Benin (concrete project by GERES).

• Suppressed demand: either (i) no access to energy (no electricity grid) or (ii) insufficient access (e.g. affordability of diesel).

• Local mechanical processing avoids wastes, reduces exhausting work, increases the added value at farmer level.

• The project is of typology 1 with non-existing, insufficient or even declining level of pre-project service.

• Minimum Service Level (MSL): enough mechanical energy to process products – for own needs and minimum to be sold - based on the community size (to be defined).

• Total power supplied capped for user groups (entrepreneur or cooperative): 16-20 hp engines.

Case Study 3: Energy use in the processing of agricultural products(Perspectives)

• Suppressed demand in Benin: the mechanical extraction of palm oil replaces the labor-intensive manual processing.

Case Study 3: Energy use in the processing of agricultural products(Perspectives)

Some conclusions• GS (capped) - CDM (uncapped);• MSL and SSL is sometimes difficult and potentially

political;• Materiality of emissions reduction increases?• Timelines to acheive MSL or SSL;• Predictive tools and models need attention;• Aim to retain operational simplicity;• Suppressed demand, sustinable development and

geographical equity;• NAMAs and New Market Mechanisms?

Thank-you from our consortium

• Contacts:• Meinrad Buerer: Gold Standard• Morten Pedersen: NIRAS• Alberto Galante: Perspectives• Steve Thorne: SouthSouthNorth Africa