malcolm.matson@oplan.org +44 20-7638 2344kambing.ui.ac.id/onnopurbo/library/library-ref-eng/... ·...

THE OPLAN FOUNDATION

www.oplan.org

malcolm.matson@oplan.org

+44 20-7638 2344

BERLIN : 15 September 2006

OBJECTS

“…. to advance the education of the public about all aspects relating to digital technologies and their social and economic benefits particularly as deployed in open public local access networks (OPLANs)”

www.oplan.org

… an international not-for-profit educationalfoundation and ‘think-tank’ founded in 2004

September 2005 – appointed to advise The World Bank on open public local access networks ( OPLANs ) and in particular, their deployment in the developing world. Major report available at

www.oplan.org

is a network of truly ‘broadband’ capacity - i.e. where the bandwidth capacity is dictated by nothing other than physical characteristics of the deployed technologies (fibre or wireless)

dedicated to serving a local geographic community - ranging from a street or business park to an entire town or city

provides abundant low cost access to connectivity on an ‘end-to-end’ and symmetrical basis throughout that community

is a ‘public utility’ in that it is available for use by any party located within the community it serves: public and private, business and residential

affords global internet access through competing third-party carriers/service providers

does not differentiate between ‘content creators’ and ‘content consumers’ and their ‘bits’

provides infrastructure which is open to all and is owned and controlled independently of any service or content which uses it

is structured, financially and legally, and configured with management and governance measures which serve the ’common good’ and assure the primary short and long term ‘value and benefit’ rests locally with users

end-user ‘access’ charges are broadly based on servicing capital and maintenance cost-recovery

is funded by the private sector - not a backdoor to re-nationalisation or state control

(OPLAN white paper at www.oplan.org)

So what is an OPLAN?Open Public Local Access Network

Open Spectrum?

1. socio-historical-techno context

2. the castration of disruptive technologies by public policy

3. ‘net neutrality’ – INTER and LOCAL – the mother of all battles

4. the unstoppable power of ‘grass routers’

today’s agenda

Open Spectrum?

today’s agenda

Brilliant economic analysis of previous ‘industrial revolutions’

Carlota Pérez

Technological Revolutions

FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN 200 YEARSCarlota Pérez

THE AGE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY1971

THE AGE OF OIL, THE AUTOMOBILE, PETROCHEMICALS AND MASS PRODUCTION1908

THE AGE OF STEEL ELECTRICITY AND HEAVY ENGINEERING1875

THE AGE OF RAILWAYS, COAL AND THE STEAM ENGINE1829

THE “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” IN ENGLAND1771

EACH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION IS UNDERPINNED

BY NEW INFRASTRUCTURE Carlota Pérez

THE “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION”IN ENGLAND

CANALS, TURNPIKE ROADS AND MAIL COACHES

THE AGE OF RAILWAYS, COAL AND THE STEAM ENGINE

RAILWAYS, PENNY POST AND TELEGRAPH

THE AGE OF STEEL ELECTRICITY AND HEAVY ENGINEERING

TRANSCONTINENTAL COMMUNICATIONS, STEAMSHIPS, RAILWAYS AND TELEGRAPH

THE AGE OF OIL, THE AUTOMOBILE, PETROCHEMICALS

AND MASS PRODUCTION

ELECTRICITY, TELEPHONE, HIGHWAYS AND AIRWAYS

THE AGE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

GLOBAL DIGITAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND

ICT SUPPORT NETWORKS1971

CANALS, TURNPIKE ROADS AND MAIL COACHES

RAILWAYS, PENNY POST AND TELEGRAPH

TRANSCONTINENTAL COMMUNICATIONS, STEAMSHIPS, RAILWAYS AND TELEGRAPH

ELECTRICITY, TELEPHONE, HIGHWAYS AND AIRWAYS

GLOBAL DIGITAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND

ICT SUPPORT NETWORKSIn no previous ‘industrial revolution’, has the infrastructural network of the

‘revolution’ that succeeds it, ever been delivered by, or evolved from,

those responsible for the infrastructural network of the

prevailing age

PEREZPEREZMATSONMATSON

WHAT IS THE PHILOSOPHICAL, POLITICAL OR ECONOMIC RATIONALE FOR REGULATING TO DO JUST THIS WITH THE

CURRENT ‘ICT REVOLUTION’?

Technological Revolutions

Carlota PérezFORTY TO SIXTY YEARS FROM IRRUPTION TO MATURITY

First 20First 20--30 years30 years

INSTALLATION PERIODSecond 20Second 20--30 years30 years

DEPLOYMENT PERIOD

ESTABLISHMENT OF NEW PARADIGM

“creative destruction” of the old one

THE GOLDEN AGE

flourishing of the full potential of the triumphant paradigm

TURNING

INSTABILITY

UNCERTAINTY

WE ARE HERE

Alexander Graham Bell

• Western Union “owns” thetelegraph business

• Bell “invents” the telephone andoffers patents to WU for $100,000

• “No thanks – it does not fit with ourfuture plans”

• Bell meets J P Morgan and createsa “new industry” … AT&T

• where is Western Union today?

Trunk / International

PTO LOCAL EXCHANGEPTO LOCAL EXCHANGE

The century-old business of the

analogue telecommunications

sector

using routing ‘intelligence’ within the network …

… to allocate ‘scarce’ trunk network capacity

END USER

“DUMB” CPE

DEDICATED NETWORK CAPACITY

NETWORK

“INTELLIGENT”EXCHANGE

LIMITED NETWORK CAPACITY

a) charging end users for exclusive use of a pair of copper wires from their home/desk to the local exchange plus selling/renting them CPE

b) the orderly allocation of scarcity - trunk and international network capacity (bandwidth) – charging by the ‘bit’ (time/distance)

c) latterly, developing and selling network embedded ‘value added’services and ‘content’

VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MODEL …infrastructure + services

ENTIRELY DICTATED BY THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE TECHNOLOGY

GENERATING REVENUE BY:

Telephone Operators Business Model

Open Spectrum?

today’s agenda

Francis Egerton3rd Duke of Bridgewater

…if the French can build theCanal du Midi – why don’t

I build a canal to carry coal from my coal mines to Manchester

where all my mill customers are?

4,500 +

miles of canal

1775 - 1825

1829Disruptive technology unexpectedly

appears on the ‘transportation’ scene

silicate glass fibre

OPTICAL FIBRE

spread spectrum

SOFTWARE CONTROLLED

WIRELESS

silicon chip

DIGITAL COMPUTER

THREE GREAT TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY

Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel

…abundant low-cost processing power

$560,000

< $0.56

Cost of 1 billion bites of HD storage

…abundant low-cost storage

NEWS RELEASEFor Immediate ReleaseNovember 24, 2004

WORLD NETWORK SPEED RECORD QUADRUPLED

Caltech, SLAC, Fermilab, CERN, Florida and Partners in the UK, Brazil and Korea Set 101 Gigabit Per Second Mark During the SuperComputing 2004 Bandwidth Challenge

PITTSBURGH, Pa – For the second consecutive year, the “High Energy Physics” team of physicists, computer

scientists and network engineers led by the California Institute of Technology and their partners at the Stanford

Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC), Fermilab, CERN and the University of Florida, as well as international

participants from the UK (University of Manchester, UCL and UKLight), Brazil (Rio de Janeiro State University,

UERJ, and the State Universities of São Paulo, USP and UNESP) and Korea (Kyungpook National University,

KISTI) joined forces at the Supercomputing 2004 (SC04) Bandwidth Challenge to capture the Sustained Bandwidth

Award. Their demonstration of “High Speed TeraByte Transfers for Physics” achieved a throughput of 101 gigabits

per second (Gps) to and from the show floor, which exceeds the previous year’s mark of 23.2 Gbps, set by the same

team, by a factor of more than four. The record data transfer speed is equivalent to downloading three full DVD

movies per second, or transmitting all of the content of the Library of Congress in 15 minutes. It also has been

estimated to be approximately 5% of the total rate of production of new content on Earth during the test.

…abundant low-cost transmission media

Fibre & wireless facts

• one strand of fibre has the capacity to carry all the voice and data traffic of the Germany at once

• there are now dozens of operators who have laid oceans of trunk/international fibre around the EU -99%+ of its capacity being unused (i.e. unlit)

• most of members of the German public live within a stone’s throw of this ocean of bandwidth

• abundant, near infinite spectrum … you know why … the open market value of anything

in infinite supply is … € ZERO

SAHARA SAND STORE

…..sold by the grain or the ton

ONLY AVAILABLE HERE

PUBLIC POLICY FORMULATION THROUGH INDUSTRY DRIVEN CONSULTATION INHIBITS PROGRESS

First, consult today’s dominant players in the communications

industry and their ‘experts’

Based on that advice, frame a regulatory regime to

‘promote’ the deployment of the new technology in such a way and at such a pace as to mitigate the impact on those it might ‘naturally’ threaten

the most

1984“Let’s deploy the new digital

technologies”

Telecoms Industry

Office of Canal Operations & Management

APPARENT BENEFITS FOR EVERYONE• faster movement of coal and other materials

• greater utilization of canal capacity

• minimised public risk through licensed regulatory regime

• birth of a new engine manufacturing industry

• massive growth of steel and rail output

• last but not least … “happy horses”

APPARENT BENEFITS FOR EVERYONE • faster ‘download’ speeds

• ‘always on’

• increased ISP competition

• lower end user costs

• increased usage and household penetration

A D S LADSL is NOT a ADSL is NOT a ‘‘golden agegolden age’’ creating creating

deployment of digital technologiesdeployment of digital technologies

Where we are today with ADSL

Influencing public policy towards sector specific regulation is the political means by which vested interests are now

allowed to ‘sedate’ disruptive technologies - against the interests of end users and their communities

• smooth migration to the future• helping ensure ‘tomorrow’ is like ‘yesterday’• ‘evolution’ not ‘revolution’• economic and labour stability• sector specific regulation• ‘life-support for’ of obsolete business models• ‘buys time’ for major corps to try and mutate

• bumpy route to the future• guarantees ‘tomorrow’ is not like ‘yesterday’• ‘revolution’ not ‘evolution’• economic and labour instability• relies on rule of law and property rights• ‘death-knell’ for obsolete business models• gives birth to myriads of new amoeba businesses• A GOLDEN AGE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROGRESS

Danger!Highly Disruptive

Spread Spectrum

Politicians &Public Policy

Pundits

Vested interestsAnd incumbents

Open Spectrum?

today’s agenda

HOW HAS THE WORLD’S TELECOM’S INDUSTRY DEPLOYED THESE TECHNOLOGIES OF ABUNDANCE?

OPTICAL FIBRE

SMART RADIO

DIGITAL COMPUTER + +

silicate glass fibre

spread spectrum

silicon chip

PTO LOCAL EXCHANGE

Optical Fibre Optical Fibre

PTO LOCAL EXCHANGE

Optical Fibre Optical FibreDigital

Computer

Digital Computer

“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in

their home.”

Ken Olsen, CEO Digital Equipment Corporation - 1977

…whoops – got that one wrong!!

PTO LOCAL EXCHANGE

DigitalComputer

Computer

Digital Computer

End users now have millions of ‘intelligent devices” (including computers) in their own hands, homes

and workplaces

PTO LOCAL EXCHANGE

DigitalComputer

Computer

Digital Computer

END USER

INTELLIGENTCPE

+LIMITED

NETWORK CAPACITY

NETWORK

DUMBROUTERS

+INFINITE

NETWORK CAPACITY

Digital Computer

DigitalComputer

INTERNET

Telcocomputers v USER

devices

“THE MOTHER OFALL BATTLES”

THE FIRST MILE

NOW running in a city

near you!

The Big Questions:

1. Who will be ‘in control’?

telcos or users

2. Will OUR devices remain free to communicate directly with each other and not just via the Telcos ?

Digital Computer

DigitalComputer

INTERNET

Telcocomputers v USER

devices

“THE MOTHER OFALL BATTLES”FIBRE or WIRELESS

-need to defend net neutrality at the -global level (INTERnet) and WIN it

-at the community level -(LOCALnet)

THE BATTLE FOR NET NEUTRALITY

NOW running in a city

near you!

a) charging users for exclusive use of a pair of copper wires to the local exchange plus selling/renting CPE to them

c) latterly, developing and selling network embedded ‘value added’services and ‘content

VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MODEL …infrastructure + services

ENTIRELY DICTATED BY THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE TECHNOLOGY

GENERATING REVENUE BY:

“People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices. “

The Wealth of Nations, Book I, Chapter XAdam Smith

INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS UNION INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS UNION

a) charging users for exclusive use of a pair of copper wires to the local exchange plus selling/renting CPE to them

c) latterly, developing and selling network embedded ‘value added’services and ‘content

VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MODEL VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MODEL ……infrastructure + servicesinfrastructure + services

Total annual charge to the world =

$1,600 Billion $1,600 Billion (Source: ITU)

What if we could save some of this?

An Open Public Local Access Network (OPLAN)

can be built, financed and operated under a radically

different business model which will deliver

these savings and benefits to any community

… to the citizens where you live

…and the hub !

Good question!

Who pays for the cabling?

Abundant Bandwidth is ‘FREE’….once you have paid for the hardware

…whether fibre

Bandwidth is ‘FREE’….once you have paid for the hardware

…or wireless

• each buys a “piece of cable/WiFi” and we share the cost of the hub

• we form a corporate body and pool purchase and own it all through that

• we lease it from a third party who buys it for us

… whichever option we choose, there are no ongoing ‘usage’ charges

The last thing we ought to do is let a third party control it so it can charge us as much as it can per ‘bit’ for using it

The conventional role of the telecoms sector in the local community

• each buys a “piece of cable/WiFi” and we split the cost of the hub

• we form a corporate body and pool purchase and own it all through that

• we lease it from a third party who buys it for us

… whichever option we choose, there are no ongoing ‘usage’ charges

The last thing we would do is let a third party own and control it and charge us what they like per ‘bit’ for using it

This principle is scaleable to a business

park, to The Hague … to the WORLD!

Open Spectrum?

4. the unstoppable power of ‘grass routers’

today’s agenda

1884 - 1984 In the beginning …

1984 - 2004

2004 - The Telco FTTH model

PTOComputer

Open Public Local Access Network2006 -

OPLANOPLAN

Open Public Local Access Network2005 -

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OPLANOPLAN

Open Spectrum and OPLANs

What happens to a community when, at zero marginal cost, abundant bandwidth enables:

• senior citizens in their own homes to remain in ‘video’ contact with their family and carers?• the school teacher of 8 yr old Hans can immediately be in video contact with the consultant

in the hospital on the other side of the city when Hans suddenly falls ill?• the traffic lights to be turned off and on when the traffic flow dictates it?• the local youth club can video stream its football matches to anyone interested?• real time energy monitoring at users premises lowers overall energy consumption?• ……………..?• ………………………?• …………………………………?

as with earlier technological revolutions brought about by disruptive technologies enabling new utility infrastructures – the potential social benefits are limited only by the imagination of man

“The monopolists, by keeping the market constantly understocked, by never fully supplying the effectual demand, sell their commodities much above the natural price. “

The Wealth of Nations, Book I, Chapter VIIAdam Smith

Our cities and society will benefit from open access

“Let’s create a competitive ‘digital divide’between our city and others!”

Visionary local politicians are beginning to grasp this opportunity …

“Let’s make our city the most accessible place on earth”

Amsterdam Deputy-Mayor Mark van der Horst

“…. we make a big step towards the deployment of a citywide fiber-to-the-home network. This enables our city to compete with other European cities. The fiber network delivers to Amsterdam an innovative and freely accessible open infrastructure, suitable to support growth in demand for the next 30 years or more. In this way we ensure a wide open marketplace for innovative service-providers and economic growth, as well as a fast track for the smarter and cheaper delivery of care, education and other public services.”

City of Amsterdam Press Release, November 3 2005

Eindhoven Mayor

Alexander Sakkers

“In 2004 the Dutch government gave to the Eindhoven Region/Southeast Brabant, the title of BRAINPORT because the economic identity of our region is defined by high-tech research and development and production activities. We believe that the development of one or more open public local access networks to serve the communities in this area is vital to it remaining globally competitive in the 21st

century knowledge economy”

Mayor Panayiotis Tzanikos Municipality of AmaroussionAthens , Greece

“We feel that we are entering a period when towns and regions will compete with each other and one of the key parameters in the competitiveness of the city is telecommunications. … I think that the level of what we are getting [from the conventional telecommunications sector] is not enough to equip the city for the next generation which is coming….. we feel that the way they [the telecoms operators] operate they keep the citizens, the businesses, the social groups, outside of the new era which is arriving so they do not have the motive to use the network to make new things, new creations and services.”OpenPlanet interview October 2005

The Knysna Municipality has taken the initiative to establish the first completely WiFi covered town in Africa. The area is roughly 1000km2 and includes the towns of Knysna, Sedgefield, Reenendal and Karatara…. 62 Municipal sites have now been installed in the region, including:

•10 Schools•3 Clinics•2 Museums•8 Libraries•1 Fire Department•21 Municipal Staff home connections.•17 Municipal Offices•1 Municipal Datacenter

Knysna Municipality (South Africa) PRESS RELEASE

Djursland - Denmark

1,800+ linked on a wireless OPLAN network

Why Open Networks?

Since the creation of the world, the

human spirit has thrived on …

… a sharing of ideas, information and creative

output through relationship with others

CONVERSATIONCONVERSATION

Why Open Networks?

Since the creation of the world, the

human spirit has thrived on …

… a sharing of ideas, information and creative

output through relationship with others

DOWN-LOADING CONTENT

For over a hundred years, thesuccess of the telephone wasDriven by CONVERSATION

not CONTENTVoice

The ‘killer application’for mobile telephony hasbeen CONVERSATION

not CONTENTVoice and SMS

CacheLogic of Cambridge global monitoring network

60%+ of all internet traffic = peer60%+ of all internet traffic = peer--toto--peerpeer

KaZaA BitTorrent eDonkey

CONVERSATIONCONVERSATION

“ The role of a press is to keep a community in conversation with itself ”

WALTER LIPPMANN 1889-1974Influential US writer, journalist, and political commentator

MALCOLM MATSON

“ The role of an OPLAN is to keep a community in conversation with itself ”

SPECTRUM

www.oplan.org

malcolm.matson@oplan.org

+44 20-7638 2344

BERLIN : 15 September 2006

malcolm.matson@oplan.org +44 20-7638 2344kambing.ui.ac.id/onnopurbo/library/library-ref-eng/... ·...

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