View
2
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
2/6/2010
1
1
Modelling for Energy Planning and Policy Analysis for Nepal
Joint TERI – ETSAP Workshop
Energy Modelling Tools & Techniques to address Sustainable Development & Climate Change
Amrit Man NakarmiSJM School of Management, IIT Bombay/
Center for Studies, Institute of EngineeringTribhuwan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
22 January 2010 2
Outline of Presentation
1) Introduction
2) Current Energy Sector Situation
3) Major Issues
4) Renewable energy resources potential
5) Modelling Framework: MAED & MARKAL
6) Future Energy Scenario Analysis
7) Major Policy Recommendations & conclusion
2/6/2010
2
3
Introduction
4
The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable – environmentally, economically, and socially. But that can –and must – be altered; there is still time to change the road we are on.
- World Energy outlook, 2008IEA
2/6/2010
3
8
Per Capita Primary Energy Supply in 2007
62
22 21 20
714
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ch
ina
In
dia
Pakis
tan
Sri
Lan
ka
Ban
gla
desh
Nep
al
Asia
n A
ver
GJ
Key World Energy Statistics, IEA, 20091 toe = 41.87 GJ
9
Per Capita Electricity Consumption in 2007
2,346
543 475 418144 81
705
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Pakis
tan
Sri
Lan
ka
Ban
gla
desh
Nep
al
Asi
an
Aver
KW
h
Key World Energy Statistics, IEA, 2009
2/6/2010
4
Brief Introduction on Nepal
Population 28.11 million
Per capita GDP US$ 246
Area 147,000 sq km
Length 880 km (East-West)
Breadth 145 to 241 km (North –South)
Key World Energy Statistics, IEA, 2009
DOED, 2006
2/6/2010
5
12
Household
90.2%
Transport
3.80%
Industrial
3.5%
Commercial
1.5%
Agricultural/othe
r
1%
Household Industrial Transport Commercial Agricultural/other
End-use Consumption of Energy in Different Sectors in 2005
WECS, 2006
Total consumption: 367 million GJ
13
Energy Consumption in 2005
Total Energy Consumption 367 million GJ WECS, 2006
Renewable
0.50%
Coal
1.80%
Petroleum
8.20%
Electricity
1.80%
Traditional
87.70%
2/6/2010
6
14
Fuelwood requirement against sustainable supply (in TJ at 5.5% GDP growth rate)
Calculations based on MARKAL output & WECS, 2006 & Forestry Master Plan, 1988.
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TJ
Sust. Wood supply
SCEN55BA FWD
SCEN55CN FWD
15
Import of Petroleum Products against Commodity Exports
27%
31%
38% 41%45%
53%
57%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
'200
6/07
Economic survey, GON, 2007/08
Commodity export in
2006/07: NR 61 billion
1 US$ = NR 73.00
2/6/2010
7
Sensitivity Analysis of ratio of imports of petro products to
commodity exports
47%59%
70%82%
94%106%
117%129%
141%152%
164%176%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Crude prices at US$ per barrel
%
Commodity exports in 2015 expected to grow at 11% as in the period 1995 -2005 to the value of 139 billion NR at 2001 constant prices.
Calculation based on ADB statistics on Nepal, 2008.
1 US$ =NR 73.0017
Monthly household life cycle costs of cooking in different fuels (based on D’sa and Murthy, 2004)
Year Kerosene LPG Electricity
1997 180 465 605
2000 385 405 680
2003 410 510 788
2009* 912 794 788
Economic cost
862 853
* At price adjustment in March 2009 (NOC, 2009)
NRs
Current LPG Price: loss of NR 87/cyl (Sept. 2009)Electricity price at NR7.30/unit
US$ 1 =NR 73.00
2/6/2010
8
Sales of petro-products in 2009
Petro-products Sales in KL/MT % growth from 2008
Gasoline 124,169 22%
Diesel 446,468 46%
LPG MT 115,813 24%
Kerosene 70,089 -65%
Total petro-products
828,022 14%
Source: NOC, 2009
Electricity sales and expected demand in 2010
Expected demand in
2010
GWh
Sales in 2009
GWh
Deficit in %
Expected demand/
sales
4,018 2,309 43%
Source: NEA, 20091 GWh = 1 million KWh (units)
2/6/2010
9
Load Curve on 8 March, 2009 (NEA)
Expected powercuts a day: 12 hours in dry season in 2010 (March- June)21
Major Issues in energy sector
Consumption of traditional fuels -unsustainable
Dependence on imported petroleum products – too much
Harnessing of the indigenous hydropower resources – very poor
Fuel substitution - strongly needed
2/6/2010
10
Energy Resources Potential
Renewable energy sources
Theoretical potential MW/MWa
Economical potential MW/MWa
Utilized
MW/units
% of utilization
Hydropower 83,000 42,000 688 1.6
Microhydro 50 10.2 20
Solar PV power plant
9,750 0
Solar PV home system
122 3.2 3
Wind Power 1,215 0
Biogas plant (MWa)
864 60 7
Solar water heating Urban (MWa)
82 23 28
Based on NEA, 2009; WECS, 2006; AEPC, 2008 and author’s calculations 23
Methodology
Useful Energy Demand Projection using Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) developed by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna, Austria.
Energy Supply System Analysis using ASWER MARKAL developed by Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP), International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris, France.
2/6/2010
11
End-use Approach for demand projection using MAED-2
Final Energy Demand in 2030
q Industrial sector
q Transport Sector
q Household Sector
q Service Sector
Ba
se
Ye
ar
20
05
Social data
Economic Data
Technological
data
Developmental
Policies
MA
ED
-2
100 90 80 70 60
Developmental
scenarios in future
years
Market
identification:
Identify the base
year 2005
Establish potential
economic &
demographic
scenarios: 2005 -
2030
Establish the
base scenario
Identify
technologies to the
growing of Nepali
market
MARKAL Energy
Systems Modelling
Framework
Energy Resources
Process Technologies
Conversion Technologies
End-use Technologies
Demands
Establish constraints to study
cases
Energy Mix Scenarios
MARKAL Methodological Diagram
2/6/2010
12
26
Methodology
Participatory workshops for issues identification
Collection of data from WECS, CBS, MOF, MOF&SC, NPC, NEA, NOC, World Bank, ADB, UN, ESMAP etc.
Analysis/Time horizon : from 2005 to 2030
Macroeconomic indicators –
GDP growth rate - 4.3 percent (average)
GDP growth rate – 5.5 percent
GDP growth rate - 7.0 percent Demographic parameter – population growth rate:
medium variant growth rate (leading from 2.23 percent to 1.74 percent in 2020 and onwards; CBS, 2003)
27
Future Energy Scenario
2/6/2010
13
28
Scenarios (Policy Interventions at Reference Case)
Introduction of Clean Energy Technology at Reference Case Traditional fuels and fossil fuels replaced by
electricity and/or fossil fuels.
Sub-sector 2020 2030
Industrial and commercial
Traditional and fossil fuels decreased by 20%
*Decreased 30%
Residential Urban Fuelwood share decreased by 50%
*Decreased by 75%
Residential Rural Fuelwood share decreased by 10%
*Decreased by 30%
*replaced by electricity, kerosene & LPG 29
Scenarios - Policy Interventions at Reference Case
CFL Penetration
Incandescent bulbs replaced by CFLs at the rate of 50 percent in 2020 and then linearly to 100 percent in 2030 industrial, commercial and residential sectors.
Transmission and distribution losses of electricity grid reduced from 25 percent in base year to 20 percent in 2015, and then linearly to 10 percent in 2030
*replaced by electricity, kerosene & LPG
2/6/2010
14
30
Scenarios - Policy interventions at reference case Introduction of New Transportation
Technology : Ethanol and bio-diesel mixing in petrol and diesel
respectively. Ethanol mix 10 percent 2020 onwards and 20 percent in 2030. Bio-diesel mix 5 percent 2020 onwards and 10 percent in 2030, and
Electric and hybrid cars introduced. Diesel and petrol cars to be reduced by 10 percent of reference case in 2020, 20 percent in 2025, and 30 percent in 2030.
Electric cars will be substituting at the rate of 5 percent in 2020, 10 percent in 2025, and 15 percent in 2030.
Hybrid cars will be substituting the remaining as 5 percent in 2020, 10 percent in 2025, 15 percent in 2030.
31
Scenarios - Policy interventions at reference case
All combined policy measures:
All combined policy measures pluswind power plant and solar water
heating system introduced.
2/6/2010
15
32
Energy consumptions in reference and combined policy cases
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TJ
Transport
Residential
Industrial
Commercial
Agriculture
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TJ
Transport
Residential
Industrial
Commercial
Agriculture
Reference case Combined case
33
Fuel Mix at Reference & combined policy cases
Energy mix in different periods
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
in %
RET
Grid electricity
coal
Petrol. Prod
Trad. Biomass
Energy mix in combined policy case
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
in %
RET
grid electricity
coal
Petrol. Prod
Trad. Biomass
Reference case Combined case
2/6/2010
16
Scenario Comparison
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TJ
SCen43BA
Scen55BA
Scen70BA
Scen55IRS
Scen55TR
SCen55CN
TJ
Model computation
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TJ
Econometric
Pokharel
NPCmedium
Scen55BA
SCen55CN
Comparison with other models
2/6/2010
17
Sustainable Energy Indicators in Reference Case Scenario
USD 1.00 = NR 73.00
Indicators Units 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Final energy consumption/capita GJ/capita 15 16 18 21 25 30
Electricity consumption/capita kWh/capita 67 87 123 183 297 423
Energy Intensity GJ/1000$ 54 51 48 46 45 46
Electricty intensity kWh/1000$ 247 275 327 406 546 641
Electricity power utilized per cent 1% 3% 4% 7% 11% 18%
Total Energy Consumption/ value
added in industrial sector GJ/1000$ value added 23.7 23.9 26.7 31.0 38.4 43.9
commercial energy / value added GJ/ Bill Nrs 29,701 41,858 59,502 85,059 121,904 174,837
Total Energy Used/household GJ/HH 76.1 81.6 87.6 95.8 107.2 123.3
Electricity used/HH kWh/HH 177 261 372 536 774 1,115
Transport Energy Utilization GJ/M T-km 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0
Transport Energy Utilization GJ/M P-km 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
share of non-carbon energy in
primary supply per cent 1.7% 1.99% 2.52% 3.29% 4.52% 5.27%
Share of renewable energy in final
total energy consumption per cent 2% 3% 3% 4% 6% 6%
the ratio of net import to total
primary energy supply per cent 10% 12% 15% 18% 21% 25%
GHG emission for every ton of
energy production and use GHG in Kg/capita 806 895 1,006 1,157 1,376 1,690
Sustainable Energy indicators for combined caseEnergy Indicators Units 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Final energy consumption/capita GJ/capita 15 16 16 17 18 21
Electricity consumption per capita kWh/capita 67 99 158 282 533 882
Energy Intensity GJ/1000$ 54 49 43 38 34 31
Electricity Intensity kWh/1000$ 249 313 444 663 1,026 1,382
Electricity power utilized per cent 1% 2% 4% 7% 13% 23%
Total Energy Consumption/ value
added in industrial sector
GJ/1000$ value
added 24 24 26 30 36 41
commercial energy / value added GJ/ Bill Nrs 29,701 41,153 54,388 72,285 98,539 134,756
Total Energy Used/household GJ/HH 76 79 77 76 74 75
Electricity used per HH kWh/HH 177 261 475 853 1,549 2,552
Transport Energy Utilization GJ/M T-km 1 2 2 2 2 2
Transport Energy Utilization GJ/M P-km 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
share of non-carbon energy in
primary supply per cent 1.7% 2.3% 3.7% 6.3% 11.0% 15.9%Share of modern renewable energy in
final
total energy consumption per cent 2% 3% 5% 8% 14% 19%
the ratio of net import to total
primary energy supply per cent 10% 12% 16% 20% 25% 31%
GHG emission for every ton of
energy production and use GHG in Kg/capita 806 859 894 936 977 1,069
2/6/2010
18
39
HDI and per capita electricity consumption (ADB, 2007)
2,000 KWh per capita is needed to achieve HDI of 0.8.
40
Per Capita Electricity Consumption in 2007
2,346
543 475 418144
882705
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Ch
ina
In
dia
Pakis
tan
Sri
Lan
ka
Ban
gla
desh
Nep
al
20
30
Asia
n A
ver
KW
h
Key World Energy Statistics, IEA, 2009
2/6/2010
19
Energy Intensity
41
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GJ
/10
00$
SCEN55BA
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GJ
/10
00$
SCEN55BA
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GJ
/10
00$
SCEN55BA
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GJ
/10
00$
SCEN55BA
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GJ
/10
00$
SCEN55BA
SCEN55CN
Share of Renewable Energy in Total Final Energy
42
2% 3%3%
4%
6%6%
2%3%
5%
8%
14%
19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
%
Combined Policy case
Reference case
2/6/2010
20
Net Imports to Total Energy Consumptions
43
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TJ
Reference case
Combined Policy case
GHG Emissions in CO2 equivalent
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
in m
illi
on
CO
2 t
on
s
SCEN55BA
SCEN55CN
25 million tons in 2030 savings
12 billion NR through carbon trading (164 million USD) in 2030.
2/6/2010
21
Power Plant Installed capacity
618 9051,596
2,910
5,540
9,581
1,171 1,7882,845
4,797
7,481
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MW
Reference
Combined
Total undiscounted supply investments
48,322
96,756
209,108
432,995
683,348
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
NR
millio
n
1 US$ = NR73.00
2/6/2010
22
Undiscounted Investment in RET
4,6357,702
26,122
51,734
87,079
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mil
lio
n N
R
1 US$ = NR73.00
48
Major Policy Options
2/6/2010
23
49
Major Policy recommendations & conclusion
Discourage use of fossil fuels
Prioritize indigenous hydropower as lead energy resources
Promote energy efficiency program
Emphasize on renewable energy technology
Deregulate energy sector
Regional cooperation with SA countries
Further improvement/development of MARKAL model and MARKAL-MACRO
Thank you !
Recommended