Panel on Technology and Economic Development European Foundation Centre 4 June 2002 ROBERT HORVITZ...

Panel on Technology and

Economic Development

•European Foundation Centre

4 June 2002

•ROBERT HORVITZBOB@INTERNEWS.ORG

Manager for Central & Eastern Europe

GLOBAL INTERNET POLICY INITIATIVE

(GIPI)

• What is the need for the development of ICT infrastructure in developing countries?

• What are the constraints to ICT development?

• How can foundations and other donor organisations overcome these constraints and provide effective assistance?

bbbbbbbbb

INFORMATION

LITERACYELECTRICITY

PURCHASING POWER

SKILLS

SECTORAL OVERVIEW

•Telephony•Internet•Computing

THE GOOD NEWS (1)

• Telecom market liberalization is proliferating and it works.– rapid increase in teledensity, lower

prices, and better service– important pressure for change from EU

and mobile phone companies

• Incumbent telecom operators fully or partly privatized in 113 countries

“Encouragingly, the fastest growing nations recently have been the least developed countries (LDCs). They surpassed the psychological threshold of one telephone user per 100 inhabitants during 2001. This is an unmistakable sign that the digital divide is being reduced, albeit at too slow a pace.”

---World Telecommunication Development Report 2002: Reinventing Telecoms (ITU)

“TOP 10” IN TELEDENSITY GROWTH, 1991-2001

Cambodia = *Viet Nam =

+4200%China = +2967%Philippines =

+1240%Botswana =

+1026%

El Salvador = +908%

Morocco = +831%Paraguay = +767% Jamaica = +758%Cape Verde =

+717%* Cambodia had zero teledensity in 1991

“BOTTOM 10” IN TELEDENSITY GROWTH,

1991-2001

Liberia = -50%Iraq = - 25%Tajikistan = -20%Angola = -12%Armenia = -6%

Uzbekistan = 0%Kyrgyzstan = +10%North Korea = +21%Comoros = +25%Turkmenistan = +40%

THE GOOD NEWS (2)• Wireless mobile telephony may

solve the problem of “universal access”– Penetration not initially dependent on

GDP!

• In 22 of 49 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) there are more mobile than fixed phone subscribers

PHONES: MOBILE NOW OVERTAKING FIXED-LINES

Data: ITU (2001)

Significant economic benefit:

Mobile phones enable more efficient & productive use of time

COUNTRIES WITH MORE MOBILE THAN FIXED-LINE

SUBSCRIBERS

Map: ITU (2002)

THE GOOD NEWS (3)

• Internet gateways in 214 countries now– access monopoly in only 14 countries

• The proportion of Internet users in developing countries increased from 2% to 23% of the total user population during the past decade - even as the total user population grew 11,477%!!

COUNTRIES WITH INTERNET HOSTS

214211200

818 22

3443

60

81

121

191

165

0

50

100

150

200

250

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Data: ITU, 2001

COUNTRIES WITH NO INTERNET HOSTS CAN STILL HAVE INTERNET

USERS• Djibouti (1,000)• Equatorial

Guinea (600)• Haiti (6,000)• Iraq (12,500)• North Korea (?)

• Sudan (28,000)• Syria (32,000)• Zaire (?)• …and 7 remote

island nations: Maldives (6,000), Reunion (10,000), etc.

Data: Internet Software Consortium, NUA

COUNTRIES WITH <0.1% INTERNET PENETRATION

Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bhutan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equitorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, Iraq, Laos, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, North Korea, Papua-New Guinea, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Zaire

Data: ITU (2001)

Net-users vs. Teledensity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00

Teledensity

Ne

t-u

se

rs a

s %

of

po

pu

lati

on

INTERNET USAGE MOST BELOW “NORMAL” FOR THEIR

TELEDENSITY• Luxembourg (!)• St. Kitts & Nevis• Martinique• Guadeloupe• Guam• Barbados

• Virgin Islands• Greece• Cyprus• Bahamas• Ukraine• Granada

INTER-REGIONAL INTERNET BACKBONE

357 Mb/s

19,716 Mb/s

Asia-Pacific

LatinAmerica &Caribbean

2,638 Mb/s

127 Mb/s

Arab States, Africa

468 Mb/s 171

Mb/s

Europe

USA &USA &CanadaCanada 56,241 Mb/s

Data: ITU (2001)

IN ICTs GENERALLY...

• The gap between “Developed” and “Emerging” countries is narrowing...

• But the gap between “Emerging” and “Least Developed” countries is widening…

• LDC progress is significant but spotty

THE BAD NEWS (1)

• 50-fold improvement in PC hardware produced only a modest lowering of the price of an entry-level machine.– Improvement mostly absorbed by

operating system “bloat”

• Near-future Internet growth could be limited by PC penetration

WILL THE SLOWER GROWTH IN PC OWNERSHIP LIMIT INTERNET GROWTH?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700M

illions

PCs

Internet users

THE GOOD NEWS (4)

WHAT TO SUPPORT?

• Academic networks and computers in schools

• PC networks for parliamentarians and their staff

• Training (especially for civil servants, teachers and judges)

WHAT TO SUPPORT?

• Creation and maintainance of locally relevant content

• Open-source software for public administration

• Program-related investment in international connectivity

WHAT TO SUPPORT?

• Trade associations for Internet cafes and ISPs

• Online freedom of expression and Internet users’ privacy rights

• Legal treatment of the Internet as speech, rather than as broadcasting

“To build sustainable networks, you've got to have local hands cultivating local

expertise.” ---Steve Huter

Network Startup Resource Centerhttp://www.nsrc.org/

ROBERT HORVITZ

BOB@INTERNEWS.ORGhttp://www.internetpolicy.net/

Global Internet Policy Initiative (GIPI)

• Founded December 2000

– Partnership between Internews and the Center for Democracy and Technology

• Administrative Center in Paris, France

• Policy Center in Washington, DC

GIPI offices in:

• Armenia• Azerbaijan• Belarus• Bulgaria• Georgia• India• Indonesia• Kazakhstan

• Kyrgyz Republic• Nigeria• Romania• Russia• Serbia• Tajikistan• Ukraine• Uzbekistan

GIPI offices soon in:

• Bosnia-Herzegovina• Vietnam• anywhere else that the

development of the Internet is hindered by public policies.

How GIPI works (1)

• Hire qualified local people - usually a lawyer, activist or ISP.

• Give them backup and support from Internet policy experts in other countries, plus access to shared resources within GIPI.

How GIPI Works (2)• Identify the main local problems in

Internet development, possible solutions and opportunities for reform.

• Join or create working groups with key stakeholders (businesses, service providers, government officials & NGOs) to develop consensus for policy changes.

ROBERT HORVITZ

BOB@INTERNEWS.ORGhttp://www.internetpolicy.net/