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Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
Future WatchEmergent Science & Technology
Paul M. GrantStrategic Science & Technology
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
Agenda
• Endless Energy Revisited
• Let the Sun Shine In
• Beam Me Up, Scotty!
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
Hot Fusion
14 MeVITER
Specifications• Fusion Power 1.5 GW• Thermal Power 1.0 MW/m2
• Magnets 12.5 T• Q 15-30
Issues:• Cost $1 B (so far!)• Site US ?• Viability for Electric Power ?
How do youboil water withneutrons? It’shard! SeeParkins, Starr &Krumhansl, inPhysics Today,March, 1997
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
p - 11B Features• No Radioactivity• Low Maintenance• Stable Plasma• Direct Electricity• Q 3• Lots of 11B (1:14)
“Light Fission”
20-Mule-Team-Borax20-Mule-Team-Borax
H+ + 11B5+ 3He2+ + (8.7 MeV)
H+
11B5+
“Colliding Beam Fusion Reactor,”Rostoker, Binderbauer, & Monkhorst, Science, 21 November 1997
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto “Light Fission”
Beam Drivers28%
Energy Recovery System
4%
Land14%
Structures15%
Remote Controls
5%
Reactor Chamber
15%
Heat Management
19%
100 MW Plant Cost• $346 M• $3460/KW
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto “Light Fission”
P - 11B Issues
• Monoenergetic Beams
• Different Energies, p, 11B5+
• Bremsstrahlung Losses
• Anisotropic Plasmas
Q << 1
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto Solar-PV to H2
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
PV/H2
SpecificationsComponent Vendor Configuration Specification
PV Array Arco M75Modules
192 modules 12 subarrays
(16) 8 series pairs
9.2 KW 24 V 380 A
Battery Nickel-Cadmium 24 V 37 Ahr
Electrolyzer TeledyneEnergyAltus 20
12 cells 24 V, 240 A H2: 20 slm O2: 10 slm
Tanks H2: 1000 gal O2: 500 gal
700 KPa 85 KWh H2
Fuel Cell ErgenicsPowerSystems
PEM 250 KPa
Input
1.0 KW Output 55 % Efficient
Load Air Compressor 1.0 hp
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
PV/H2 Operation
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
PV/H2 Performance
Note: System efficiency is dominated by photovoltaic efficiency
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
Power System Security Under Deregulation
• Distributed Networks and Systems– Complex Adaptive Systems– Independent Intelligent Agents
• Greater Reliance on Communications– Power Flow– Market Transactions
• Exposed Infrastructure– Power Lines– Communication: Wire, Wireless, Optical
A 1995 DARPA study determined that by hacking the phone system, 1/3 of US power systems could be attacked simultaneously!
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
Power System Security:Issues
• Destruction– Blow it up!– Virus insertion
• Penetration– Infiltrate, spy– “wiretap,” code-breaking
• Intervention– Dis-information– Opt control
Solution ! -- Secure Communication
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto Quantum Computing
Quantum computing is not nano-computing!
• Quantum…
– Computing
– Cryptography
– Teleportation (!)
• Antecedents– Einstein, et al. (30s)– Landauer (IBM, 60s-70s)– Bell (Oxford, 60-80s)– Bennett (IBM, 80s)
• Current– Zeilinger (Innsbruck)– Duetsch (Oxford)– Kimble (Cal Tech)There is a future Nobel
Prize here !
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
Double - SlitExperiment
You can tell where it’s going,or from whence it came,but never you’ll be knowing,both them quite the same.
Anon. (maybe)
“No one really understandsthe double-slit experiment.”
R. P. Feynman
Total
1 2
2 2 1
12
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen
Physical Review, 1935Physical Review, 1935
Total 1 2“Quantum mechanics requires that any attempt to measurethe state of 1 will affect the state of 2 simultaneouslyeven though 2 may be light-years away.”
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
QuantumEntanglement
||
||
eH H V V
eH H V V
eH V V H
eH V V H
i
A B A B
i
A B A B
i
A B A B
i
A B A B
2
2
2
2
c hc hc hc h
“Bell States”
AB
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
QuantumTeleportation
Fax or Clone Teleport
NB: Original Destroyed !
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto Experiment
Paul M. GrantFuture Watch
SS&T Council Meeting11-12 May 1998 Palo Alto
Energy Physicsfor the Future
……according to St. Albert...according to St. Albert...
Spooky!
E mc 2
E h
HV A B A BH V V H 1
2[ ]
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