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ContentPeak Oil
◦What is it?◦What is the evidence?◦When will it happen?
Key ImplicationsEnergy Implications for IrelandFour ScenariosConclusions
What is Peak Oil?
"The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognising that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion."
Dr Colin Campbell
What is the Evidence for Peak Oil?
1. The Hubbert peak2. Peak discovery3. No giant oil fields being
found4. Energy return on energy
invested5. More expensive to
produce oil6. Lack of spare capacity7. Big oil fields are the
oldest
What is the Evidence for Peak Oil?
1. The Hubbert peak2. Peak discovery3. No giant oil fields being
found4. Energy return on energy
invested5. More expensive to
produce oil6. Lack of spare capacity7. Big oil fields are the
oldest
What is the Evidence for Peak Oil?
1. The Hubbert peak2. Peak discovery3. No giant oil fields being
found4. Energy return on energy
invested5. More expensive to
produce oil6. Lack of spare capacity7. Big oil fields are the
oldest
9
North Sea
0
2
4
6
8
10
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Dis
cove
ry G
b
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Pro
du
ctio
n k
b/d
Classic PatternPeak to Peak = 26 years
DenmarkNorway & UK
10
World Discovery peaked in 1964
Past discovery by ExxonMobil
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Gb
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Past Discovery
Future Discovery
Production
1981
Smoothed with3-yr moving average
What is the Evidence for Peak Oil?
1. The Hubbert peak2. Peak discovery3. No giant oil fields being
found found4. Energy return on energy
invested5. More expensive to
produce oil6. Lack of spare capacity7. Big oil fields are the
oldest
What is the Evidence for Peak Oil?
1. The Hubbert peak2. Peak discovery3. No giant oil fields being
found 4. Energy return on energy
invested5. More expensive to
produce oil6. Big oil fields are the
oldest7. Lack of spare capacity
What is the Evidence for Peak Oil?
1. The Hubbert peak2. Peak discovery3. No giant oil fields being
found 4. Energy return on energy
invested5. More expensive to
produce oil6. Big oil fields are the
oldest7. Lack of spare capacity
What is the Evidence for Peak Oil?
1. The Hubbert peak2. Peak discovery3. No giant oil fields being
found 4. Energy return on energy
invested5. More expensive to
produce oil6. Big oil fields are the
oldest7. Lack of spare capacity
What is the Evidence for Peak Oil?
1. The Hubbert peak2. Peak discovery3. No giant oil fields being
found 4. Energy return on energy
invested5. More expensive to
produce oil6. Big oil fields are the
oldest7. Lack of spare capacity 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1985 1990 2003 2004
SPARE OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY
Adapted from “The Oil Age is Over”, Matt Savinar
When Will it Happen ?Significant variance in viewsThe only reliable way to identify the
timing of peak oil will be in retrospect
When Will it Happen ?Recent study by UK Energy
Research Centre (Oct, 2009)◦ Independent group◦ Academic attempt to reconcile the
polarised debate on the timing of peak oil◦ A review of over 500 studies, analysis of
industry databases and comparison of global supply forecasts
Reserves Growth
Peak Oil – When?
UKERC Report; “A global peak is likely before 2030 and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020”
Richard Heinburg:◦ July 11, 2008 – Peak Oil Day◦High of $147/barrel◦Record 74.8 million barrels of oil per day
Peak Oil – When ?
IEA Energy Outlook 2008 ◦Decline rate of conventional oil now 6.7%
IEA Energy Outlook 2007◦Decline rate of conventional oil 3.7%
In an Interview with George Monbiot – 15 December 2008
“In terms of the global picture, assuming that OPEC will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well, which is of course not good news from a global oil supply point of view.”
Dr Fatih Birol, Chief Economist,
International Energy Agencyhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot?page=9
Peak Oil – Implication #1The end of exponential growth,
fuelled by cheap fossil fuel; The Economy
Production Consumption
The Population Food Supply
“The greatest
shortcoming of the
human race is our
inability to understand
the exponential function ”
Dr. Albert BartlettProfessor of Physics,
lectures on Arithmetic, Population, and Energy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDNMjV6sumQ&feature=related#watch-main-area
Peak Oil Implications – The Hirch ReportPrevious transitions were gradual
and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary
The real problem is liquid fuels for transportation - motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships have no ready alternative
Mitigation efforts will require substantial time - an intense effort over decades
Peak Oil Implications – The Hirch ReportIt is a matter of risk management -
early mitigation will be less damaging than delayed mitigation
Government intervention will be required - otherwise the economic and social implications would be chaotic
More information is needed - effective action requires better understanding of a number of issues
White Paper Total Energy Requirement 1990-2020
Oil still at 55% of energy make up in 2020 in White Paper
scenario
Source: SEI (2008)
Energy Implications for IrelandNeed more ambitious targets for
sustainable energy and delivery on the targets that we have
Using oil for heat and electricity generation needs to be phased out as soon as possible
Transportation sector needs to be electrified
Return to local & regional power production
Future Scenarios
"... the characterisation of the four scenarios is difficult and inevitably SPECULATIVE, they do PROVIDE A FRAMEWORK for considering how Peak Oil and Climate Change could interact to reshape global and local energy resources, settlement patterns, economy and governance.“
D. Holmgren
Fast Oil DeclineSlow Oil Decline
Dest
ruct
ive G
W
arm
ing
Holmgren, (2009)
Brown Tech
Lifeboats
Earth StewardGreen Tech B
en
ign
Glo
bal W
arm
ing
Reasons to be Cheerful!
Our growth economy and culture of constant change is a strength as we face an uncertain future
There is evidence of effective (while challenging) transition away from cheap oil elsewhere i.e. Cuba
The harshest impacts of climate change may not effect Ireland
Reasons to be Cheerful - Ireland!
Small populationProductive
agricultural landIsland nationExcellent;
wind//bioenergy/wave/solar resources
Intact social networks
Well educatedRural base
ConclusionsPeak oil follows a bell curve but demand only
increasesLarge resources available but unlikely to be
accessed quickly and make a difference to a global peak
Uncertain timing but convincing evidence that it will be before 2020
Halt to exponential growth model in the world economy
Less an energy issue than a lifestyle oneCan be seen as an opportunity to return to
sustainable societies
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ulxe1ie-vEY
Finally……………
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