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PM2.5 in the Upper Midwest
Michael Koerber
Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium
Cite: The Health Effects of Air Pollution on Children, Dr. Michael Kleinman, UC-Irvine, September 19, 2000
PM2.5 particles are so small that 30 of them side-by-side would barely equal the width of a human hair (graphic courtesy of U.S. Department of Energy)
PM2.5 v. PM10 v. TSP
Cite: NARSTO Fine Particle Assessment Review Draft, August 15, 2001
PM NAAQS
• TSP (1971):• Annual = 75 ug/m3
• 24-hour = 260/150 ug/m3
• PM10 (July 1987):• Annual = 50 ug/m3
• 24-hour = 150 ug/m3
• PM2.5 (July 1997): • Annual = 15 ug/m3
• 24-hour = 65 ug/m3 (98th percentile)
Regulatory Schedule
• 2002: 3 years data available (‘99 - ’01)• Dec 2003: Finalize review of PM NAAQS• 2003-4: State recommendations for
designating nonattainment areas• 2004-5: EPA designates areas (per
TEA-21 legislation)• 2007-8: States submit SIPs with control
strategies for PM2.5 and haze
PM2.5 Monitoring Data
• State Monitors • FRMs (filter-based), continuous, speciation
• IMPROVE (rural)
• Special Studies• Upper Ohio River Valley Study (DOE)• Midwestern Aerosol Characterization Study
(EPRI)
IMPROVE (rural sites)
Seney NWR, Michigan
Key Points• Compliance with NAAQS:
– nonattainment of annual standard likely over broad region of eastern U.S. (and CA), including across IL-IN-OH-SE MI
• Data analyses show…– Temporally: (1) concentrations relatively consistent throughout the year,
with some seasonal variation (higher levels during winter [urban] and summer; and (2) daily concentrations present public health issues
– Spatially: regional contributions dominate– Chemically: (1) sulfates and organics (urban) dominate, and (2) nitrates
important during winter
• PM2.5 - regional haze - ozone related, which suggests need for integrated SIP planning
Annual Average Concentrations FRM Data (1999 - 2000)
Annual Average Concentrations FRM Data (1999 - 2000)
24-Hour Average Concentrations FRM Data (1999 - 2000)
Number of Sites > NAAQS1999 - 2000
Conceptual Model of PM2.5
• Spatial Variations
• Temporal Variations
• Chemical Variations
• Meteorological Conditions
• Multi-Pollutant Relationships (PM2.5-haze-ozone)
Annual Average Concentrations IMPROVE/CASTNet Data (1997 - 1999)
Urban v. Rural(Annual Average Concentrations)
Urban v. Rural(DOE Upper Ohio River Valley Study)
Cite: Semi-Annual Technical Progress Report, ATS, Oct. 31, 2001
Urban v. Rural
Air Quality Index
Category PM2.5 O3 (8-hour)Good 0 - 15ug/m3 0 - 64ppbModerate 15 - 40 65 - 84Unhealthy for sensitive groups 40 - 65 85 - 104Unhealthy 65 - 150 105 -1 24Very unhealthy 150 - 250 125 - 374
High Daily ConcentrationsEffect on Public Health
Ozone v. PM2.5 AQI Days1/1/99 - 9/30/01
Chemical Composition - Rural Sites IMPROVE/CASTNet Data (1997 - 1999)
Chemical Composition - Rural
Chemical Composition - Rural
Chemical Composition - Rural/Urban
Meteorological Conditions (Back Trajectories)
Contoured Trajectories: Cincinnati
Regression Trees (met only):Cincinnati
northerly winds,low wind speed
TerminalNode 1
STD = 8.271Avg = 21.623
N = 30
TerminalNode 2
STD = 5.634Avg = 13.637
N = 109
Node 2WSPD_MAX <= 4.850STD = 7.103Avg = 15.360
N = 139
TerminalNode 3
STD = 8.895Avg = 22.713
N = 165
Node 1VWIND_ME <= 0.178STD = 8.913Avg = 19.351
N = 304
southerly winds
northerly winds, high wind speed
PM2.5 v. Visibility Ozone v. Visibility
Wrap-Up
• Summary of Key Points
• Future Issues
Key Points• Compliance with NAAQS:
– nonattainment of annual standard likely over broad region of eastern U.S. (and CA), including across IL-IN-OH-SE MI
• Data analyses show…– Temporally: (1) concentrations relatively consistent throughout the year,
with some seasonal variation (higher levels during winter [urban] and summer; and (2) daily concentrations present public health issues
– Spatially: regional contributions dominate– Chemically: (1) sulfates and organics (urban) dominate, and (2) nitrates
important during winter
• PM2.5 - regional haze - ozone related, which suggests need for integrated SIP planning
Future Issues
• Technical– More data analysis (source apportionment)– Understanding response to emission reductions
• Programmatic– Public outreach (PM2.5 and ozone)– Nonattainment designations– PM-coarse
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