View
213
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Poblacion y medio ambiente en America Latina: Procesos demograficos a multiples escalas y
cambios en la tierra
June 23, 2016
David López-CarrDepartment of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara
•XIII REUNIÓN NACIONAL DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEMOGRÁFICA EN MÉXICO
Global Demographic Transition: Urbanization & Aging
World Population: Average Annual Increase For Each Decade, 1750-2100 (projected) Source: "World
Population in Transition", Population Bulletin, by Thomas W. Merrick and PRB
0
20
40
60
80
100
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Iincr
ease
(mill
ions
) Developing RegionsDeveloped Regions
Demographic Transition
Variation in Latin America
While urbanization remains a predominant demographic process globally scale and place matter:
R01 Pop-Env. Study in the Ecuadorian Amazon: TFR fell from close 7 to nearly 4 during the 1990s. Why?
1967 Oil discovery
Road and pipeline construction
Spontaneous Settlement from rapid In-Migration (1970’s-
present)
Development of Frontier towns, markets, roads, and services
Rapid forest clearing & biodiversity loss
Study Site
Two Places, 2 TFRsLago Agrio TFR <4 Indigenous communities TFR >7
The region’s central city photos: Joe Messina
Two Developing Worlds: The World is now 50% Urban but…• Argentina/Chile/Uruguay – 90% Urban• Guatemala, Ecuador, Bolivia – 50-65% Urban• And within these countries there is VAST variation
• These two worlds are associated with two distinct Pathways of Food Production and Consumption:
• Pathway 1: Rural producers: Remaining high population growth, and persistent host-host and host-vector diseases. The pace and magnitude of this group shifting to the 2nd group (largely vis a vis migration) will have huge implications for total world population, and the health of people and the planet.
• Pathway 2: Urban consumers: Meat consumption and processed goods consumption increasing with rapidly urbanizing middle class associated with falling fertility and increasing diabetes and cardio-vascular disease.
Estimated annual rate of forest change (in km2) from 2001 to 2010 in the 2,513 municipalities for which a significant change took place.
Demographic Change in Latin America
Total population change (1990 – 2000)
1990 – 426,465,0212000 – 503,388,073diff 76,923,052
Municipality level change# of municipalities: 16,052# with negative growth : 4,200% with negative growth: 26.1%Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Popu
latio
n x
106
100
200
300
400
500
Rural Urban
Data from FAOSTATS Our analyses
Aide, Clarke, Lopez-Carr,, Levy, Grau, et al. (2010). Under review at Science. Global Land Project Open Science Meeting. Arizona State University. 17-19 October.
What is the relationship between population change and woody vegetation change? Nada at the municipal level!
Population change (1990-2000)
-20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
Woo
dy v
eget
atio
n ch
ange
200
1-20
09
(r - c
orre
latio
n co
effic
ient
)
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
ns
p <0.1
p <0.1
n = 16,052, F = 0.21, P = 0.64, r2 = 0.000
Aide, Clarke, Lopez-Carr, et al. (2010).
So what is driving forest conversion?...
Trop
and
Sub
trop
Moi
st B
road
For
est
Trop
and
Sub
trop
Dry
Bro
ad F
ores
t
Trop
and
Sub
trop
Con
ifer F
ores
t
Tem
p B
road
and
Mix
ed F
ores
t
Trop
and
Sub
trop
Gra
ss S
avan
na S
hrub
Tem
p G
rass
Sav
anna
and
Shr
ub
Floo
ded
Gra
ss a
nd S
avan
na
Mon
tane
Gra
ss a
nd S
hrub
Med
For
est W
oodl
and
Shr
ub
Des
ert a
nd X
eric
Shr
ub
Man
grov
ePer
cent
ann
ual w
oody
cha
nge
(200
1 - 2
009)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Pantanal
Pampas
Mangrove
Latin American Forest Transition What municipalities are gaining and losing woody forest cover?
Aide, Clarke, Grau, Levy, Lopez-Carr, et al. (2010)..
What Crops Predominate Here?
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Glo
bal p
ig a
nd p
oultr
y pr
oduc
tion
(tonn
es x
106
)
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
Year1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sout
h Am
erica
n so
ybea
n
prod
uctio
n (h
a x
106 )
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2001-2009163,326 km2
Aide, Clarke, Lopez-Carr, et al. (2010)..
Urbanization and Meat
Population Trends are very much related to forest trends but increasingly with greater distance in space and time between population drivers and land change outcomes (e.g. Carr, 2004; Lambin et al 2010).
Spatio-temporal scale is one analytical lens to examine coupled population-resource processes, the household as producer and consumer is another (e.g. Chowdhury and Turner 2009).
Macro-Scale demographic, political-economic, social, and ecological dynamics
Urban or International Destinations
Rural Destination
Agricultural Extensification
Agricultural Intensification
Return to Top of Chart
MigrationFertility regulation
Off-farm Labor
Household Responses
Local Variation
Land Management
Proximate and Underlying Causes of Pathway Transitions at HH Level:Multiphasic Household Responses
Other response??
cropsforest
FARM UNOCCUPIED FOREST
SURROUNDING FARMS
Poverty-driven forest conversion tends to target unoccupied forestland, the external frontier. Commercial agriculture often follows land consolidation and thus may or may not be converting old growth forest (internal frontier)
Internal (place) versus external (space) forest frontiers.
Now let’s look at the sub-national level: Migration, Fertility, and LUCC in Guatemala and the Sierra de Lacandon National Park
0 200 Miles
N
EW
SSierra de Lacandón
National Park
Maya Biosphere Reserve
Guatemala
Petén
The SLNP suffers some of the highest rates of population growth and agricultural expansion in the MBR
0 20 Miles
N
EW
S
RoadsForestForest Cleared < 1990Forest Cleared > 1990Water
U. Maine Spatial Analysis Lab
a. Interviews with community leaders in 28 communities responsible for LUCC in the SLNP.
b. Surveys with several hundred men and women from 9 communities.
Research MethodsField Work 1998
Población y Uso de la Tierra en el Parque Nacional de LacandónCuestionario de hogar - Para Jefes de Hogar
Nombre:
Comunidad:
Encuestador:
Seccion I: La familia y la casaQué edad tienen? Ud._______ Su esposa (o pareja)__________
En que año se casaron (se unieron)?______
Ha vivido casado o unido con otra mujer antes?01 - SI 02 - NO [salte a la siguiente pregunta]
Cúantos hijos tuvo Ud. antes de vivir con su actual mujer?______
Cúantas personas viven en la casa actualmente? [indique hombre “H” o mujer “M”]edad hijos/as Hijos que están
estudiandohermanos/as padres tios/as Suegros/as cuñados/as otros,
especifique0-56-1212-1818-4950 o más
A qué trabajo le dedica más tiempo?01 - agricultor 02 - extractor de recursos boscosos 03 - negociante 04 - otro, explique
Quién maneja los ingresos de la familia? 01 - el hombre 02 - la mujer 03 - los dos
Su religión es: 01 - Católica 02 - Evangélica 03 - Ninguna 04 - Otra, especifique
Cuando era niño, su mamá le hablaba en qué idioma?01 Español 02 Q’eqchi 03 Otro, especifique__________
Y ahora, Ud. habla qué idioma en casa?01 Español 02 Q’eqchi 03 Otro, especifique__________
Población y Uso de la Tierra en el Parque Nacional de LacandónCuestionario de hogar - Para Jefes de Hogar (Q’eqchí)
La K’ab’á:
K’aleb’aal;
Laa K’ab’á Laat laj Isihom Esil:
Jun Raqal: Li Junkab’al ut li ochoch.Jarub’chihab’ wankaawe? La Sun aatin jarub’ ahihab’ wankre
Li chihab’ xex Sumla wi’ Maraj li xelaq’wi’ erib’)?_____01 – He’ He’ 02 – Inka’
`jarubi la Kok’al laat naq maji’ nakat wan rik’in li tz’aqal?______
Ani nach’eok relix tuminal lijunkab’al? 01 – li winq 02 – li Ixq 03 – Sa’wiib’al.
La Paab’aal: 01 - Katoolk 02 - Wanjeel 03 - Manjun 04 - juna, chik
Naq toj kac’inot chaq K’achi aat’ b’aal nakat’ raatinalui?01 Kaxlan chi’ 02 Q’eqchi 03 Otro,
especifique__________
ut najwak?01 laa’at K’aru 02 la waatina’b’aal 03 nakat aatinak Sá la
wochoch__________
Ma xat hulak ? Sá Rochóchil li tzolok
Toj K’a chi Raqalil xa tzolok?___________
Ma nakat yaab’asinkru hu ut Manakat Tz’iib’ak? 01 – He’ He’ 02 –Inka’
Ma tawaj naq eb’la Kok’al te’ tzoloq? 01 – He’ He’ 02 – Inka’
[ Wi’ tsume hehe’ “| toj k’a chi Raqalil? a ) toj b’ar truuq b’
bar nuchal la si’ ? 01 sa’li kioche Sa’ lin K’anjelab’aal 02 sá lin parseel 03 sálinalk’al Reliwochoch’ 04 Sá K’iche?)
Laurel Suter’s 2009 Household Samples 1 & 2
Sample 1: Follow up 1998
Households (indicates total number interviewed in 1998)
Sample 2: Randomly selected
households244 (247) 278
Forest, 19.2Fallow, 7.1
Maize, 4.9
Frijol, 0.4
Pasture, 1.3
O ther, 1.0Abandoned, 0.5
1998:Average Land Use in Hectares. Farm Size = 34 ha.
Maize, 6.1
Frijol, 1.0
Pasture, 10.9
Abandoned 1.0Other crops 1.1
Forest, 12.8
Fallow, 23.6
2009: Average Land Use in HectaresFarm Size = 49 ha.
Political-economic Factors:
Proximity to Markets
and Capital MatterPeten’s Capital, Flores: Home of 30+ NGOs
Squatter Settlement in the SLNP
Land Title
More Ag. Expansion.
Ecological Factors: Spacious Space or Few people?
• Population growth high but population density low
• Forest abundance = Expansive swidden and avoidance of farming steep slopes
Place and Space: Maya & Maize vs. Ladino & Cattle
•25% Maya
Maya Farmers More Extensive Farming. But…
Demographic Factors:
• 10% Annual Growth mid 1990s Larger Communities More Agricultural Expansion in 1990s.
• 8 Births per Woman
Larger Households More Agricultural Expansion.
Indigenous Large Family Preference
Desired Family Size?
Education link? Religion?
• Processes in distant places - skewed land distribution, demographic pressures, poverty, war - lead to LUCC in another place
Where did the SLNP colonists come from and why from there?
Macro-Scale demographic, political-economic, social, and ecological dynamics
Urban or International Destinations
Rural Destination
Agricultural Extensification
Agricultural Intensification
Return to Top of Chart
MigrationFertility regulation
Off-farm Labor
Household Responses
Local Variation
Land Management
Migration to the SLNP
Other response??
Departamentos of Guatemala and Migration Origin Municipios
Morales
Fray Bartolomé de las Casas
Nueva Concepción
Original map source: http://www.inguat.net/redtp/map/indexe.html
Jutiapa
Gualan
Los Amates
San Luis
Dolores
Sierra de LacandónNational Park
Cobán
Mazatenango
RetalhuleuEl Asintal
Santa Cruz Mulúa
San Martín Zapotitlán
Iztapa
San Miguel DuenasMunicipios in red are the three case studies explained in greater detail.
Origin Areas Migration DataPercent of adults permanently out-migrating from 1989 to 1999 Approximate %
Men 10%
Women 10%
Principal Destinations Primary employment
Guatemala City Factory or service worker 35%
Peten Acquire land for farming 35%
USA Factory, service, or agricultural worker 10%
Other Plantation laborer 10%
Principal pushes/pulls
Work 35%
Land 30%
Improve living standard/education 20%
Natural disasters/Env. Degradation 10%
Why did people migrate to the MBR?
Ecological Factors
Socio-economic Factors
Demographic Factors
Political-economic Factors
Two Municipios: Fixed vs. Shrinking (Expanding) Space
Nueva Concepción
Original map source: http://www.inguat.net/redtp/map/indexe.html
Sierra de LacandónNational Park
Morales
Land Distribution the Answer?
Jobs the Answer?
Two Big Geographical Framing Concepts for Population-Land Transitions:
1) Available agricultural land is a diminishing and constraining resource. Human-land relations are critically and indissolubly linked to demography, health, economic sustainability, and environmental integrity/conservation
2) Space (scale) and place matter!
Two Big Framing Concepts Integrating Population and Environment:
1) (Despite rapid urbanization) Remote rural demographic transitions will have a disproportionate effect on future population size and distribution
2) How many people eating what produced where will describe the vast majority of future land changes on the face of the earth.
South America: Pasture and Arable & Permanently Cropped Land as a Percent of Total Land
4.6% 8.4% 7.7%
23.9%26.3% 30.3%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
1961 1981 2001
Poisson Regression ModelsVariables Model 1 Model 2Intercept 11.6*** 11.69***Demographic factorsWoman's age in 1990 -0.11*** -0.12***Total no. of live births prior to 1990 0.16*** 0.14***Total no. of infants died prior to 1990 -0.24*** -0.22***Desired more children in 1990 (Yes / No) 0.27Contraceptive use in 1990 (Yes / No) -0.28 -0.36*Contraceptive use in 1999 (Yes / No) -0.12
Woman's education ] 0.29* 0.24Socio-economic factorsLand title in 1990 (no title vs. title) 0.09Change in land from 1990-1999^ 0.005* 0.0041990 Assets owned -0.04 -0.051999 Assets owned 0.02Distance to community center (KM) 0.002Electricity access
Electricity in 1990 and 1999 -0.69 -0.87**Scale 1.09 1.08
Household migration, retention and destinations from Laurel Suter’s survey
Same town
Nearby frontier
Santa Elena
or nearOther Peten
Other Guate-mala
Guate-mala City USA
Unknown location
HH no longer exists
Un-known person Total
Total 155 23 13 16 15 2 3 11 6 3 247
Total % 63% 9% 5% 6% 6% 1% 1% 4% 2% 1%
Current location of Household
Recommended